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Old 04-25-2014, 07:07 PM   #1
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Default Hibbert

Obviously this postseason is far from over, but I'm curious as to how people here feel about Roy Hibbert as a potential "buy low" option this summer. Seems to me like the Pacers are almost certainly going to be shopping him this summer... and I'd love to see how Hibbert would respond to getting coached up by Carlisle.

Anyone interested in a trade along the lines of Calderon/Wright for Hibbert/George Hill?

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Old 04-25-2014, 07:08 PM   #2
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Buy low? They are thinking of shopping him mid-series?
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Old 04-25-2014, 07:10 PM   #3
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Thoughtful reply! Worth reading.
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Old 04-25-2014, 07:30 PM   #4
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They might sell low, but I'm not exactly sure what we can offer that they would want/need... But, yeah, I'd love to see Hibbert in a Mavs uni.
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Old 04-25-2014, 07:52 PM   #5
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10/6/2 on a max contract? No thanks. He has been atrocious so far in the playoffs as well.
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Old 04-25-2014, 08:05 PM   #6
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10/6/2 on a max contract? No thanks. He has been atrocious so far in the playoffs as well.
The entire team has been atrocious - that could be more indicative of their coaching/system than the individual players... Hard to tell right now, but the whole team looks discombobulated from the top down.
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Old 04-25-2014, 08:28 PM   #7
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Another good aspect of Hibbert's contract: 2 years left after this one. If he absolutely can't produce anymore (like his play since the new year would suggest), then we'd only be on the hook for one year, as he becomes a massive expiring contract in the summer of 2015.

I seriously think we could offer something along the lines of Calderon/Wright/1st for Hibbert and George Hill (another guy considered by Pacers fans to be a lost cause but a guy that could be great if playing for Carlisle) and keep the Pacers on the phone.
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Old 04-25-2014, 10:43 PM   #8
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Calderon/Wright 12m
Hibbert/Hill 23m
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Old 04-25-2014, 11:22 PM   #9
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Hibbert is an extremely underwhelming rebounder with low mobility, no ability to defend outside the paint and is unable to even play for this whole series because Atlanta is too fast for him and ATL is not the only team with the fast-strike mentality. Hibbert is Tyson Chandler without the mobility, which is the only reason Chandler was special-- not the shotblocking, but the insane mobility.

Wright, Blair and Dally are all better rebounders than Hibbert. Hibbert is fools gold.

Oh, and he earns 14mill a year which would be a full quarter of our salary cap and could leave us depending on a 38-year-old Carter and 37-year-old Marion.

On the bright side, Hibbert is a marksman and shot 40% from three this year, so there's that.

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Old 04-25-2014, 11:52 PM   #10
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I think its stephenson thats gone from Pacers roster next year, not Hibbert...But why would they get only Wright as a center? Bum Bynum and Mahimi is all they have.

But of course Id take him.
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Old 04-26-2014, 12:37 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by sefant77 View Post
Calderon/Wright 12m
Hibbert/Hill 23m
We'd also have more than enough cap space to absorb the difference, and that would give the Pacers the option to bring Lance back too, if they still want to.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Hibbert is an extremely underwhelming rebounder with low mobility, no ability to defend outside the paint and is unable to even play for this whole series because Atlanta is too fast for him and ATL is not the only team with the fast-strike mentality. Hibbert is Tyson Chandler without the mobility, which is the only reason Chandler was special-- not the shotblocking, but the insane mobility.

Wright, Blair and Dally are all better rebounders than Hibbert. Dally is as effective defensively and almost as effective blocking shots. Daly is as effective offensively as well, which makes Wright light-years ahead of Hibbert. Hibbert is fools gold.

Oh, and he earns 14mill a year which would be a full quarter of our salary cap and could leave us depending on a 38-year-old Carter and 37-year-old Marion.

On the bright side, Hibbert is a marksman and shot 40% from three this year, so there's that.

LOL at that Dally comment. Has he ever been a starter on a top-5 defense in his entire career? Even one time? That is just insane oversimplification and shows a lack of understanding of some of the very basics of NBA defense. My mind is blown right now at that comment. Utterly insane with zero logic to it.

Boy, that is the snarkiest post I've ever read... do you do anything but plug in rebounding percentage numbers before you evaluate centers? Honest question.

Your stats betray you here. Throw out the rebounding percentages of career backups like Blair (who has almost zero other NBA-level skills) and Wright (who is such a lousy defender he hasn't earned a starting role on a team absolutely desperate for size and athleticism). Their numbers are nice until you put them in the proper context: they achieve them against backups and they come in as energy players. Neither of those two should ever be starting on a good NBA team at this point of their careers. And Dalembert, for all of his apparent defensive skills, still blocked far fewer shots and grabbed fewer rebounds than Hibbert -- and even if he comes back next year as the starter, you know that at least 40% of the time you're going to get a shitty effort from him, so bad that you can't even put him on the court. Percentages are nice but they're gimmicky when they're your only real argument. None of those three players should start games for this team unless you could magically count on Dally to actually play with pride and energy on a nightly basis. He's been a backup masquerading as a starter on his last few teams because they haven't had better options.

There's a difference between being just a shot blocker (i.e. Dally and say, DeAndre Jordan, who allowed the same shooting percentage at the rim as David Lee this season) and being a rim protector. Hibbert allows about 40% shooting at the rim when he's in the game (while blocking roughly the same number of total shots for the season). That is absolutely insane. Almost unprecedented. And when he's engaged, he's a good enough rebounder (9.3 RPG per 36 minutes... if he could keep that up for 30-32 MPG he'd already be the second-best rebounding center we've ever had behind one season of Chandler). In short, he has been the most productive defensive center in the league over the past two-plus seasons, and that's with a very young coach. With Carlisle I think big Roy would have the best season of his career. Just a hunch. Maybe I'm wrong and he'll never be good ever again. Still worth a gamble for one year, or two at the most. He's still only 27 and if traded, would have a huge chip on his shoulder. He's a player that needs a change of scenery, and a guy that would also be the second-best center we ever had even if his production from this season (10/6/2 with the absolute best rim protection in recent history) was all he peaked at. I get the feeling that Carlisle would properly motivate him, and a locker room full of veterans that actually have past success on their resumes would be good influences on him.

Another honest question: Have you watched Hibbert or checked out his real production at any time other than the past few months? I admit that he has been extremely disappointing but his current quality of play is a huge outlier when you look at it next to the first half of this season and the two seasons before that. He's 100% without a doubt the #1 rim protector in the league. He's imploding along with the rest of the Pacers because of toxic personalities (Lance, Turner), selfish players (Paul George, Lance again), and exhausted veterans (West, George Hill). I best every single rotation player for the Pacers will play better ball for long stretches before they retire. The whole situation there is just a mess and they need to blow it up in the worst way.

Seriously, unless we're getting Dwight, Joakim, Horford, Drummond, or maybe Gortat (who has had much worse stretches in his career than Hibbert's season, yet many here really want him), we aren't going to have a better center than Hibbert. And if Roy plays like he did for last season and the first 45 games of this year, he's arguably as good (if not better) than all of those guys except Dwight and maybe Noah (two guys we couldn't get if we offered their teams our 10 best trade assets). Why in the hell would you not even take a chance on a guy like this?

I am extremely happy some people here aren't the Mavs GM. It's like they hear a name and immediately look for reasons to make fun of the player (or the poster) instead of actually doing something crazy and considering anything even slightly unorthodox in approaching roster-building. Hibbert is a much safer bet than the Gortats and Larry Sanderseseses of the NBA.

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Old 04-26-2014, 12:41 AM   #12
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Calderon/Wright 12m
Hibbert/Hill 23m
We're under the cap, so salaries don't have to match since the salary we'd absorb wouldn't put us over. It'simply a matter of IF we want to... That said, I think we could probably do better than Hibbert/Hill with the resources we have at our disposal this summer (I still like Hibbert tough.)

EDIT: looks like Spree beat me to the punch on the cap info.
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Old 04-26-2014, 12:48 AM   #13
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Sure we can absorb this with our cap but im not a fan at all to blow half of our capspace in this trade.

Hibbert is the wrong type of center beside Dirk. It would be terrible. We need a quick active guy and good help defender
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Old 04-26-2014, 01:06 AM   #14
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I think Hibbert could be just fine next to Dirk... he guards the post well, blocks shots better than everyone on this roster (more blocks than Dally/Wright/Blair COMBINED and in 1500 fewer minutes) and along with those blocks, forces more misses just with his presence. If we could couple a Hibbert acquisition with getting one more quality perimeter defender (pairing with Marion at the 3), there's no reason we couldn't be a top-10 defense next season. Hibbert could absolutely transform this roster and our game plan, especially after Carlisle coached him up.
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Old 04-26-2014, 08:12 AM   #15
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10/6/2 on a max contract? No thanks. He has been atrocious so far in the playoffs as well.
But he wasn't atrocious last year. Is he hurt, damn tired of Indy ( who wouldn't be) or something else. And if he is so,atrocious why would he get a max contract?
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Old 04-26-2014, 08:18 AM   #16
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We're under the cap, so salaries don't have to match since the salary we'd absorb wouldn't put us over. It'simply a matter of IF we want to... That said, I think we could probably do better than Hibbert/Hill with the resources we have at our disposal this summer (I still like Hibbert tough.)

EDIT: looks like Spree beat me to the punch on the cap info.
Are you saying we would be better of here to be over the cap?
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Old 04-26-2014, 09:25 AM   #17
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The idea of people turning up their nose to Hibbert is pretty baffling to me. I would worry a little about rebounding and pick and roll defense, but Hibbert is clearly elite as a lane clogger and rim protector.

But I'll be absolutely shocked if Indy trades him, and I'll be even more shocked if the Mavs prove to have the best offer for him. The line would form to the left to acquire him.

If Indy wants to blow it up I think they fire Vogel and let a few players go like aStepheson. Don't think they'll sell low on Hibbert or George.
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Old 04-26-2014, 11:00 AM   #18
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Another good aspect of Hibbert's contract: 2 years left after this one. If he absolutely can't produce anymore (like his play since the new year would suggest), then we'd only be on the hook for one year, as he becomes a massive expiring contract in the summer of 2015.

I seriously think we could offer something along the lines of Calderon/Wright/1st for Hibbert and George Hill (another guy considered by Pacers fans to be a lost cause but a guy that could be great if playing for Carlisle) and keep the Pacers on the phone.
No way we take on hill .. Might as well just keep Calderon

But we could do Calderon + Dalembert + 2 1st rd picks for Hibbert


And still have money to sign Lowry $12 Million and Ariza $8 Million


PG-Lowry / Harris / Larkin
SG-Ellis / Carter / Ledo
SF-Ariza / Marion / Crowder
PF-Dirk / Tolliver / Boston Pick
C-Hibbert / Wright / Dallas Pick
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Old 04-26-2014, 11:18 AM   #19
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LOL at that Dally comment. Has he ever been a starter on a top-5 defense in his entire career? Even one time? That is just insane oversimplification and shows a lack of understanding of some of the very basics of NBA defense. My mind is blown right now at that comment. Utterly insane with zero logic to it.
Thanks, but you've brought nothing to the table other than insults. Perhaps if it was so obviously insane, you'd bring some stats. They'd be easy to find contrary stats if I was so insane.

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Boy, that is the snarkiest post I've ever read... do you do anything but plug in rebounding percentage numbers before you evaluate centers? Honest question.
I only looked at rebound rating, rebound percentage, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, block rating, PER, win share, but but point taken.

Quote:
Your stats betray you here. Throw out the rebounding percentages of career backups like Blair (who has almost zero other NBA-level skills) and Wright (who is such a lousy defender he hasn't earned a starting role on a team absolutely desperate for size and athleticism). Their numbers are nice until you put them in the proper context: they achieve them against backups and they come in as energy players. Neither of those two should ever be starting on a good NBA team at this point of their careers.
Okay, we'll completely throw out all stats for Wright and Blair despite significant minutes for both on a playoff team. Sounds insane to me to completely throw out all stats (and not just discount them), but whatever you say. You're the expert. Hibbert is still one of the worst starting centers in the league in almost every important category.

Quote:
And Dalembert, for all of his apparent defensive skills, still blocked far fewer shots and grabbed fewer rebounds than Hibbert
So you want to throw out ALL simple and advanced stats for Wright, Blair, and Dally but you want to compare raw, simple stats for guys who played radically different amounts of time. Do you really expect Dally to have more blocks and rebounds in 1600 minutes than Hibbert got in 2400.

Quote:
Percentages are nice but they're gimmicky when they're your only real argument. None of those three players should start games for this team unless you could magically count on Dally to actually play
Same applies for Hibbert. Guy can't be depended on him. Dozens of blocks and thousands of Indy fans are demanding that Hibbert be benched, because he's killing the team in this series.

Quote:
And when he's engaged, he's a good enough rebounder (9.3 RPG per 36 minutes... if he could keep that up for 30-32 MPG he'd already be the second-best rebounding center we've ever had behind one season of Chandler).
You called me out for cherry picking, but this is the worst kind of that exact thing. It's based on a hypothetical and even then he's only an average rebounder. IF he can stay in the game and IF he hustles he can be almost as good as Dalembert?

[quote[In short, he has been the most productive defensive center in the league over the past two-plus seasons[/quote]
Citation needed. I have him at 48th in PER, 58th in rebound rate, 59th in defensive rebound rebound, and 34th in value added among centers. If you include forwards, he's in the 100-200 range in all of those stats. His defensive numbers are also pretty average.

Quote:
With Carlisle I think big Roy would have the best season of his career. Just a hunch.
Yes, just a hunch like the rest of your argument.

Quote:
Maybe I'm wrong and he'll never be good ever again.
Or perhaps he'll be just average and the illusion that he's one of the "most productive centers" in the league mystique will pop.

Quote:
Still worth a gamble for one year, or two at the most.
That's also an opinion and not one that I share. It's also the mentality that left us without our 1st rounder from Odom and the genius of our roster last year-- hey, it's just a year, right?


Quote:
He's still only 27 and if traded, would have a huge chip on his shoulder. He's a player that needs a change of scenery
Just like Odom, right? He wanted to stick it to LA after miserably underperforming on a team with personnel issues.

Quote:
the absolute best rim protection in recent history
citation necessary.


Quote:
Another honest question: Have you watched Hibbert or checked out his real production at any time other than the past few months?
Yes.

Quote:
Why in the hell would you not even take a chance on a guy like this?
Because it's not a closed system. It's not just about Hibbert being overrated and rather average. It's about what it would take to get Hibbert-- Odom only cost us a first rounder and a year of salary and he was a bad investment. It's about t he cap room he'd eat up. We may only have a few million to work with this summer and I don't think Hibbert would get us there and he'd probably be the only major name we'd be able to get. If we had unlimited trade resources and unlimited cap, I'd love to take a chance on him. That's simply not the case. Cubes is into advanced stats and Hibbert's advanced stats scream "fools gold" as Kaman's did.

Quote:
I am extremely happy some people here aren't the Mavs GM.It's like they hear a name and immediately look for reasons to make fun of the player (or the poster) instead of actually doing something crazy and considering anything even slightly unorthodox in approaching roster-building.
What a condescending thing to say. You really think you have it right and I'm only trying to crap on your idea? It has no idea with stats and real concerns? Wow.

Quote:
Hibbert is a much safer bet than the Gortats and Larry Sanderseseses of the NBA.
If that were a true analysis and not a perfect example of the fallacy of false dichotomy I'd be perfectly on board. Hibbert is absolutely safer than a nutball like Sanders. Of course, that's not how life works.
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Old 04-26-2014, 11:20 AM   #20
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But we could do Calderon + Dalembert + 2 1st rd picks for Hibbert
I do that in a heartbeat, but the Pacers wouldn't... Even if they get booted in the 1st round and decide to shake things up this summer, they could easily get a better offer for Hibbert.
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Old 04-26-2014, 11:59 AM   #21
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Umm, Hibberts advanced stats scream "elite defensive center". His affect on opponents' field goal percentage is incredible.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/co...the-protector/

I'm not saying work like this is infallible or that these stats should be used as gospel, but if you think the analytics crowd looks down on Hibbert you're simply wrong. The analytics crowd is the one championing him as elite.
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Old 04-26-2014, 12:15 PM   #22
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Just needed a little confirmation that Hibbert's contributions go right over some people's heads. Glad that most here seem to like the idea.
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Old 04-26-2014, 01:08 PM   #23
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Umm, Hibberts advanced stats scream "elite defensive center". His affect on opponents' field goal percentage is incredible.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/co...the-protector/

I'm not saying work like this is infallible or that these stats should be used as gospel, but if you think the analytics crowd looks down on Hibbert you're simply wrong. The analytics crowd is the one championing him as elite.
A) Do you think he's available? Being shopped? Any evidence that he's being shopped?
B) What do you think he'll cost? We have few trade pieces. Would you trade our 2015/2017 first rounders and perhaps more for him?
C) How do you explain his incredibly poor play for much of the season and the post-season, where he'll have to sit out just to keep up with ATL?
D) Is he so good at preventing layups that it's worth spending 1/4 of our cap space on a guy who is one-dimensional? Sub-par rebounder, non-existent offensive threat, etc.

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Old 04-26-2014, 01:15 PM   #24
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Just needed a little confirmation that Hibbert's contributions go right over some people's heads. Glad that most here seem to like the idea.
I'm pretty sure it's possible to argue a point without calling people dumb.
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Old 04-26-2014, 01:20 PM   #25
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and Ariza $8 Million
I dont want Ariza at all, he is the closest to A.Walker right now considering jacking up threes (sure, this season he got lucky with his percentage) He is overall pretty overrated. Last night he pretty much blew the Wiz chances with pulling up a bad three early in the shotclock and throwing a terrible pass to Wall for the TO...

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Old 04-26-2014, 01:21 PM   #26
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I think its stephenson thats gone from Pacers roster next year, not Hibbert...But why would they get only Wright as a center? Bum Bynum and Mahimi is all they have.

But of course Id take him.
It's probably going to be Steph or Turner and my money is on Turner being the one who actually leaves.
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Old 04-26-2014, 01:28 PM   #27
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I'm pretty sure it's possible to argue a point without calling people dumb.
Fair enough.

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Buy low? They are thinking of shopping him mid-series?
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On the bright side, Hibbert is a marksman and shot 40% from three this year, so there's that.

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Old 04-26-2014, 01:31 PM   #28
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Should I quote you being condescending as well and we can all pretend that it was the other person's fault?

Unfortunate choice of words by both parties. I used hyperbole, which you obviously didn't appreciate and then you were incredibly condescending which I didn't appreciate. Can we leave it there?

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Old 04-26-2014, 01:40 PM   #29
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I spent a lot of my days off on a Pacers message board and not only do their fans want him gone, but apparently (as you mentioned) Vogel was putting some thought into benching him due to poor play. I don't know that he's available but I would guess they'll start entertaining offers as soon as they're out of the playoffs.

Even if he isn't known to be available, this is a hypothetical. I'd love to see it happen.
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Old 04-26-2014, 02:10 PM   #30
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Boy, I hope the Mavs play with as much passion today as you guys put into debating about Hibbert.
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Old 04-28-2014, 11:43 PM   #31
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Those 0 points and 0 rebounds in 12 minutes surely warrant that max contract contract of his. What the hell is wrong with him?
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Old 04-29-2014, 06:56 AM   #32
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A) Do you think he's available? Being shopped? Any evidence that he's being shopped?
B) What do you think he'll cost? We have few trade pieces. Would you trade our 2015/2017 first rounders and perhaps more for him?
C) How do you explain his incredibly poor play for much of the season and the post-season, where he'll have to sit out just to keep up with ATL?
D) Is he so good at preventing layups that it's worth spending 1/4 of our cap space on a guy who is one-dimensional? Sub-par rebounder, non-existent offensive threat, etc.


Would I give up 2015 / 2017 1st rd picks ? Hell yeah


The Mavs could trade Dalembert + Mekel + James $5.2 Million SNT with early Bird rights + 2015 + 2017 + 2019 1st Rd Picks + 2016 Memphis 2nd rd Pick + $3 Million cash ..

Why for Indiana ? They get 3 1st rd picks + they would have $7-10 Million in cap space ( Depending on if they kept / waived Dalembert ) after re-signing Stephenson . If they just kept Dalembert this saves the Pacers $22.6 Million over the next 2 years . If they kept Dalembert and signed some player for $7 Million it still saves them $8 Million over the next 2 years .

And keeps them out of the luxury tax


Why would Dallas do it ? Hibbert is still a great Center that just needs a change of scenery . He will also only be 28 years old next season and the Mavs could still have enough to sign Melo ..


If you are Melo and Dallas trades for Hibbert would that convince you to sign with the Mavs ? The Mavs could basically pay Melo $20 Million , Dirk $9 Million , then trade for Hibbert and still have enough money to bring back most of the team


PG-Calderon / Harris / Larkin
SG-Ellis / Carter / Ledo
SF-Melo / Marion / Crowder
PF-Dirk / Melo / Dallas 2nd rd pick or Vet Min Player
C-Dalembert / Wright / Blair / Boston Pick ( Nurkic or Taveras )


Melo wouldn't have to worry about
1-If the Knicks can build a brand new winning Roster around him in 2 years and a new coach .
2-If Harden will give him the ball or not . Plus the fact Houston needs a new coach .
3-Whether or not Rose comes back to anything near all star quality ( Big If ? )


Even if Dirk retired in 2 years the Mavs would still have a solid core of
Hibbert 30 years old
Ellis 31 years old
Melo 32 years old
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Old 04-29-2014, 06:58 AM   #33
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I dont want Ariza at all, he is the closest to A.Walker right now considering jacking up threes (sure, this season he got lucky with his percentage) He is overall pretty overrated. Last night he pretty much blew the Wiz chances with pulling up a bad three early in the shotclock and throwing a terrible pass to Wall for the TO...

I wouldn't exactly call 180-442 .407 3P% Lucky ..
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Old 04-29-2014, 08:55 AM   #34
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You guys know I love Hibbert... but 3 first-rounders for him? Absolutely not. For three firsts, regardless of where they project to fall in the draft, you'd better be getting a top-5 or top-10 player. Roy is a defensive juggernaut, but I don't think he's worth those picks.

And I want no part of Melo on this team, even with Roy. Ever.

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Old 05-01-2014, 10:49 PM   #35
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Wow, Hibbert played less than a minute in the second half and got benched so Mahinmi could start. That's how far he's fallen since the All Star Break. If some other team gets him for cap space/salary dump I'm going to be really bummed... especially watching the parade route the Spurs mapped out to the rim in game 5.
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Old 05-05-2014, 11:41 PM   #36
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Another derp game from the big guy.
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Old 05-05-2014, 11:47 PM   #37
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The more, the merrier! Drive that value down, big fella!
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Old 05-06-2014, 01:35 PM   #38
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The more, the merrier! Drive that value down, big fella!
Maybe he's conspiring to come to Dallas. It's hard to believe that someone who is 7'2" can't secure a single board in 18min, even as Gortat had a double-double.

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Old 05-06-2014, 01:49 PM   #39
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I wish I could believe that... what I do believe is the rumors swirling around Indianapolis that Paul George bedded Hibbert's girlfriend sometime in January, and Hibbert's on-court decline may be linked to that.
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Old 05-08-2014, 02:54 PM   #40
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Of course Hibbert had to go and get a 28/9 game right when his value was starting to bottom-out...
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