Great analysis - Calderon, Dirk, many others.

[tsar]

I find that Grantland has really fantastic articles when they really dig into the stats. Their NFL, MLB stuff is great too.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...a-best-scorers

Read the whole thing, it's really interesting, but this part really caught my eye. We have two out of the top 5 best "pure shooters" in the NBA.

"Calculating ShotScore for outside shots only (eliminating the inside shots) reveals the great "pure shooters" in the NBA. It should come as no surprise that Curry comes out on top. Last season, the Warriors guard took 1,120 shots outside of 7.5 feet; these shots resulted in 1,247 points, or 195 more points than expected. League-wide, in terms of ShotScore for outside shots, Curry leads a top five that also includes Kevin Durant, Jose Calderon, Kyle Korver, and Dirk Nowitzki.

These are players who already enjoy great reputations as shooters, but to this point there hasn't been a metric that has certified their superior status.

Controlling for the number of total shots taken helps further refine the idea. Jose Calderon had the highest ShotScore per outside shot. Calderon led the league with a +25 ShotScore per 100 outside shots, indicating that he accumulates 25 percent more points than would an average NBA shooter for every 100 outside shots he takes. This is especially impressive considering Calderon was playing for a pair of middling teams last season.

As it turns out, of the 162 NBA players who attempted at least 300 outside shots last season, only three of them accrued more than 20 points above expected values per 100 shots: Calderon, Kyle Korver, and Steve Nash, who despite his broken-down body still managed to put together great shooting numbers. Interestingly, many of the names on the list below are not frequent shot creators, but when they do get shots they are extremely accurate relative to their peers.

Top 10 Outside Shooters Per 100 Shot Attempts

1. Jose Calderon, +25
2. Kyle Korver, +23
3. Steve Nash, +21
4. Stephen Curry, +17
5. Dirk Nowitzki, +16
6. Serge Ibaka, +16
7. Jarrett Jack, +16
8. Shane Battier, +15
9. Danny Green, +15
10. Steve Novak, +14

So does this mean that Jose Calderon is the best shooter in the NBA? No, it means that when Calderon shoots it's a beautiful thing. We all know that the NBA isn't just a catch-and-shoot league; it's also very much a create-your-own shot league. Some NBA players, like Novak, only thrive in those catch-and-shoot scenarios, while others, like Stephen Curry, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kevin Durant, constantly create their own chances off the dribble or in the post. These differences are reflected partly in the volume of shots guys take every year, and relative to players like Curry, Nowitzki, and Durant, Calderon is not a very creative shooter.

I find it interesting that Jeff Van Gundy likes to refer to Novak as the "best pure shooter" in the NBA. The numbers don't back up that claim. Suggesting that a player like Novak is a better shooter than Curry, Durant, or Nowitzki is just as foolish as saying that DeAndre Jordan is a more efficient scorer than LeBron James.

How efficient would Curry or Durant be if they just camped out on the perimeter and took catch-and-shoot jumpers a few times per night? Unfortunately for their efficiency numbers, these guys also toil inside the arc and take tons of shots off the dribble. Conversely, how bad would Steve Novak be if he tried to do this at the end of a playoff game?"

I'm really excited for the new season!

[jthig32]

Very cool article. I was just coming here to post it.

[G-Man]

With Ellis driving and dishing, I expect Calderon and Dirk to have a lot of wide open opportunities. It will be hard for defenses to stay home on both of them. The extra pass should become the Mavs most deadly weapon.

[Murphy3]

I'm hoping to see an increase in shot attempts for Dirk this year.. an increase of open looks for Dirk this year... clearer lanes for Ellis..and all kinds of good looks for Calderon. I suppose we'll see.

[EricaLubarsky]

Think about Calderon is that he also passes intelligently. If he gets it, he can either shoot it or pass it-- and does both equally well. I'm not sold on him as a creator of offense, but as a second guy in a play, he could be one of the best in the entire league.

If someone cheats off of him, he can punish them with a three (46.1% last year from there) . If they stay on him, he can find an open man with a god-like A/TO over 4, an assist per 48 of 12.6, and an assist rate of 39.4%. He's a bit of a third wheel with both Dirk and Ellis needing the ball to be most effective, but appears to be more than effective when receiving the ball on the pass.