Wouldn't a talented Lottery pick be best

[Aggie E]

Looking at the draft this year I think this is a very deep draft for any team picking in the Top 8. The mavs are at best a one & done team even if they somehow get hot and start playing some amount of defense. I hate to say I hope they lose, but that might be the best thing.

[EricaLubarsky]

Another one?

[Aggie E]

Yeah one that isnt 34...

[Kante]

No way your post would have fit in one of the other "tank" threads...

[mavs777]

This years draft is the worst in recent memory but I am a huge Isaiah Austin fan.

[oilfieldtrash]

Not trying to be Debbie Downer but I think this team really doesn't have a choice as to whether they are lottery bound or not.

[adonis]

Originally Posted by oilfieldtrash

Not trying to be Debbie Downer but I think this team really doesn't have a choice as to whether they are lottery bound or not.

Unfortunately this.

We're too good to be in the same category as PHX, NOH, etc. but we're not good enough to roll with Denver and Minnesota.

[spreedom]

Originally Posted by oilfieldtrash

Not trying to be Debbie Downer but I think this team really doesn't have a choice as to whether they are lottery bound or not.

I have evidence against this... it's your entire history of posting here. All three months of it.

[EricaLubarsky]

We very well may be a lottery team, but you never tank. Even if it gets you a pick (and there is no guarantee of a corresponding pick) it destroys your franchise. Plus, herr commissioner Stern would probably bankrupt Cuban for trying. Just look at the Spurs.

Also, I ran the numbers in one of the other tanking threads-- I forget which one but the odds aren't good in the average draft, and most analysts view this as a weak draft. I'll try to page through the old threads and bump the stats.

[adonis]

tags... lol

[m4vs89]

I think they should just shut down Dirk for the rest of the season, tank hard and hopefully get a high lottery pick and come back with a better team next season.

Hopefully Dirk doesn't decide to have knee surgery 2 days before opening night though...

I never understood why he waited that long to have his surgery when he had about 4 months off....

[EricaLubarsky]

[41mvp]

Originally Posted by m4vs89

I think they should just shut down Dirk for the rest of the season, tank hard and hopefully get a high lottery pick and come back with a better team next season.

Hopefully Dirk doesn't decide to have knee surgery 2 days before opening night though...

I never understood why he waited that long to have his surgery when he had about 4 months off....

yeah it is damn good question.He knew what is wrong with his knee and he was waiting for almost 5 long mounts.He missed about 20 games.20 very important games!!!But like we see our team sucks these days.So with Dirk or without him we will loos.

Donie Nelson is the worst GM in the world

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by m4vs89

I never understood why he waited that long to have his surgery when he had about 4 months off....

His knee didn't start swelling again until training camp. At that point, he would have missed a good chunk of the season anyway. It is never an easy choice to make because of the ramifications it certainly will have on the team. Dirk had swelling in the past, and it went away. Are you a doctor? My guess is no.

[nowhereman]

How much faith do you have in the organization to hit a home run with a ~9-12 draft pick anyway? Especially in a crappy draft like this one.

[Murphy3]

Yep, I just had surgery on my knee... it wasn't bothering me. But there was a chance that I could injure it in the future.

When you're dirk's age, you don't have surgery when you don't think you need to have it. It didn't work out ideally this time, but the logic was sound.

[DavidDaMonkey]

Originally Posted by Aggie E

Looking at the draft this year I think this is a very deep draft for any team picking in the Top 8. The mavs are at best a one & done team even if they somehow get hot and start playing some amount of defense. I hate to say I hope they lose, but that might be the best thing.

I'm not even sure what that means.

[Spurred1]

What a fresh new topic!
And for those questioning and whining about Dirk having the knee surgery, let's try this again:
* Knee gave him trouble last season, which was publicized. The medical staff treated it, and it went away for the most part, which enabled him to play out the season. No reason to have surgery on a body part that isn't bothering him.
* Knee was fine until training camp/preseason. Medical staff tries out methods to try to heal it so surgery won't be required. At 34 and all those years playing, who knows how he'd respond to it?
* Knee doesn't want to heal-surgery is last resort and he goes under the knife.
Folks, he didn't suddenly decide to have surgery simply to upset you. The timing was bad, but the medical staff wanted to try out other options.
And before anyone says.."but,but, what about the blood/shit transfusion Kobe got for his knee?" Well, maybe Kobe's knee and Dirk's knee had different problems and therefore required different remedies.

[|_Jeff_|]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

How much faith do you have in the organization to hit a home run with a ~9-12 draft pick anyway? Especially in a crappy draft like this one.

Nowhereman, the Mavs are currently tied for 9th worst record in the league. Getting a 9th - 12th pick would be an improvement from where they are now, not tanking.

Tanking could get us a 5th or 6th pick. All you'd have to do is hold out Dirk for knee rehab.

A 6th pick in the draft is worth FAR more to the future of the franchise than competing for 9th seed in the west. That's a no-brainer unless you're completely opposed to tanking on principle.

[|_Jeff_|]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

We very well may be a lottery team, but you never tank. Even if it gets you a pick (and there is no guarantee of a corresponding pick) it destroys your franchise. Plus, herr commissioner Stern would probably bankrupt Cuban for trying. Just look at the Spurs.

Also, I ran the numbers in one of the other tanking threads-- I forget which one but the odds aren't good in the average draft, and most analysts view this as a weak draft. I'll try to page through the old threads and bump the stats.

Still waiting for those numbers...

According to the draft numbers at 82games, tanking is an excellent idea that could get you a 60-80% chance of landing a star player.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by |_Jeff_|

Still waiting for those numbers...

According to the draft numbers at 82games, tanking is an excellent idea that could get you a 60-80% chance of landing a star player.

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I don't understand how treading water until a gem shows up is any worse than completely dismantling a team and tanking for a first rounder. Obviously Cuban believes more in known talent in the form of free agents than he does in draft picks. Let's not pretend that shooting for a big FA and failing is a risky venture and tanking for draft picks isn't. Dirk's got 2-4 years left in him if he ever comes back the same player. By the time our first rounder from 2013 wears a Dallas uniform that is down to 1-3 years left for Dirk. Then add 2-3 years of development and you're basically rebuilding around the first rounder instead of Dirk.

That also assumes that the draft pick actually works out and I'd put our odds slightly below the average in the lottery. Of the first-overall draft picks between 1998-2008 (who should have the best odds of becoming stars and who have had time to develop that 2-3years), only 4 of 11 (36%) have been allstars (Rose, LeBron, Howard, Ming) and 20% have retired from injury. (Ming/Oden)

And that trend is even more dramatic when you look at the entire lottery. Roughly 18% of picks 1-15 ever make an all-star game and only 50% stay in the league much after their rookie contract. Those odds aren't particularly good, particularly because tanking for worst record would completely decimate our fan base and drive away any of the free agents that might have considered coming here. Also consider that the worst team only got the first pick 4 out of 28 times (14%) in the last 28 years, and 2/19 (10.5%) since 1994 (when the odds were improved), it's not even a sure thing that a team that tanks will even get a first-overall, despite having a 25% statistical chance.

All that bad mojo only gets us a 25% chance of first overall (11% historically) and a first-overall pick only pans out roughly 36% of the time. Is that a good gamble compared to trying to keep Mayo and securing a bigger FA this summer or pulling a big trade at the deadline?

number of all-stars in the lottery by year
2008- 3/15 (20%) Rose 1st, Westbrook 4th, Love 5th,
2007- 1/15 (7%) Durant 2nd
2006- 2/15 (13%) Aldridge 2nd, Roy 6th
2005- 2/15 (13%) Paul 4th, Deron 3rd, Bynum 10th
2004- 2/15 Howard 1st, Deng 7th
2003- 5/15 (33%) Lebron 1st, Carmelo 3rd, Bosh 4th, Wade 5th, Kaman 6th
2002- 3/15 (20%) Ming 1st, Stoudamire 9th, Butler 10th
2001- 2/15 (13%) Gasol 3rd, Johnson 10th
2000- 0/15 (0%)
1999- 5/15 (33%) Brand 1st, Francis 2nd, Davis 3rd, Hamilton 7th, Marion 9th
1998- 4/15 (27%) Jamison 4th, Carter 5th, Dirk 9th, Pierce 10th

Only 18% (29/165) of players from the last 11 lottery drafts have gone on to appear in even one allstar game.Even in the two best years in recent memory ('99 and '03) lottery teams only had a 1/3 c hance of securing an all-star.So even if we were to secure the worst record, we'd only have a 25% chance (11% historically) to secure a first-overall pick and first overall picks have only panned out 40% of the time. Of course with the worst record, we'd be guaranteed a lottery pick but those only pan out at about a rate of 18% historically (1998-2008) and EVEN IF we did secure a future all-star, the likelihood that they'd reach that level before Dirk retires is minuscule.

1) Tanking basically gives up on Dirk because it depends on draft picks that will take time, while playing the free-agent lottery is just as risky but may give us a chance during Dirk's career

2) Tanking for worst record only gives us a 25% chance (10.5% historically with current odds) of drafting the first-overall guy who has a 36% chance of being an allstar and/or a lottery pick who have only panned out 18% of the time.

3) Tanking destroys the brand, alienates fans and leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouths-- including FAs that have finally warmed to Dallas.

How about those numbers

[|_Jeff_|]

Awesome, Eric. That's what I'm talking about. The draft is loaded with star players especially if you have a top-6, and that's only including players that have made an all star game which leaves out loads more talent like Tyson Chandler, James Harden, Josh Smith, Kyrie Irving, Eric Gordon, Paul Millsap, Gerald Wallace, Al Jefferson, Steph Curry, etc etc.

[|_Jeff_|]

Here are the numbers from 82games about draft picks landing "star players":
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

1st pick: 70%
2nd pick: 60%
3rd pick: 85%
4th pick: 60%
5th pick: 60%
6th pick: 25%
7th pick: 30%
8th Pick: 35%

And even among the picks that don't become "star players," a large percentage become solid players, starters on playoff teams and 6th men of the year, etc.

[EricaLubarsky]

Well, this thread may have been #9 this season talking about tanking, but it may not be a bad place for discussions about who we should pick up in the draft seeing as how our draft pick this year is top-20 protected.

[Ninkobei]

The good thing about this year is Donnie should expect a top 15 pick. He can begin to look at all the potential draftees to figure out who he likes best eary this year. I'm sure most years he doesn't bother paying much attention to the draft..

[Budapest Maverick]

Aggie E: That's actually not a very deep draft, but a top heavy one. If we have a top 5 pick, i'll be excited, otherwise, a little excited (6-10 range). I like the first 4-5 prospect very much, but we're not bad enough yet to dream about those guys. We need to lose some more, if we want a good chance at them. I know it sounds bad, but it's a lot better than winning 38 games. A lot. That's how the NBA works.

[LSMF]

Even if we got a high pick I don't even trust them (MBT) in the draft. I can easily see them drafting an unknown player or a bust, and then stubbornly defending why they made such a decision. Anyway, we'll see what happens.

[Budapest Maverick]

Of course, it would nowhere be a guarantee, but you'll find those guys (franchise guys) in the top 10. We found Dirk there, and we picked in the top 10, because we were bad enough the season before, to get a high pick. It is what it is. All of you who says we should win as many games as possible, even if it means picking at 14th, 15th, should remember this. Without being bad, Dirk would have played his career elsewhere.

[nowhereman]

Well, we could tank and then trade a high lottery pick for something valuable, right? Think Boston's pick for Ray Allen. At least we'd create a more valuable asset that way. Seems better than the alternative (a low lottery pick).

[The Ghost of Championship]

Good luck sucking enough to outbeat the East, especially in this draft.

If you tank you tank right. Just sayin.

[Kidd Karma]

You can always parlay the lottery pick into another player. Unload a contract, Marion for a Gay....if you don't want to under go a full rebuild. Boston parlayed a lottery pick and Al Jeff into several useful veteran pieces for a 4 year run.

[DTownKidd]

Tanking sounds like the quick fix but it is not at all. Look at Minn, Bobcats, Wizards, Kings...these teams have been drafting at the top of the lottery for years and only Minnesota is finally getting out of the slump, barely! You have to be very lucky!

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by DTownKidd

Tanking sounds like the quick fix but it is not at all. Look at Minn, Bobcats, Wizards, Kings...these teams have been drafting at the top of the lottery for years and only Minnesota is finally getting out of the slump, barely! You have to be very lucky!

Then you have the Celtics, who was able to parlay a lottery pick, Al Jeff into a 4 year run combining them with Pierce and Rondo. With the season slipping, it might be time to develop Cunningham.

[Budapest Maverick]

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

Then you have the Celtics, who was able to parlay a lottery pick, Al Jeff into a 4 year run combining them with Pierce and Rondo. With the season slipping, it might be time to develop Cunningham.

Or OKC, who basically built a contender for the next 8 to 10 years, in like 3-4 years. So yeah, you can find examples on both sides. Obviously, it's far from a guarantee, and the priority is still to sign big names at summer. But a high lottery pick sure wouldn't hurt. It's a lot better than picking at 20.

[Dirk's Knee]

So for all you hoping for a lottery miracle, why don't we look at how the Mavs front office has done in the draft in recent years:

2012:

Round 1, 17th pick: Tyler Zeller whose 8.5 PPG and 5.6 RPG was traded for Crowder's 5.7 PPG and 2.5 RPG, James' 3.6 and 3.5, and Cunningham whose played so few minutes he's likely another bust.

Round 2, 57th pick: Darius Johnson-Odom who was sold to the Lakers and hasn't stepped foot on an NBA court.

2011:

Round 1 26th pick: Jordan Hamilton who was traded to the Nuggets
Round 2 56 pick: Targuy Ngombo

2010 Round 2 55th pick: Solomon Alabi

In fact, you have to go back to the 2003 draft of Josh Howard to find anyone whose put up any kind of significant stats that Dallas has drafted. Other than the 1998 trade which got us Nash and Nowitski and the 1994 pick of Kidd, Dallas has never done a particularly good job in the draft. Those hoping a tanked season will result in a Mavs rebirth next year are absolutely fooling themselves. We need to make as significant a trade as we can now to get some post defense, pay to retain Mayo, give our rookies minutes to get them experience, and be willing to be the absolute highest bidder in the next 2 offseasons to stand any kind of chance at being a competitive team in the near future. Its painfully obvious that Cuban and Nelson tanked the team 2 years ago (though its arguable they didn't have too much choice). Picks won't cure this team...

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Zeller has turned into a pretty decent big man, but I think the Mavs just needed bodies coming into this season since they are long term contract contagious. Certainly does look bad in hindsight though. Good centers are tough to come by.

[Dirk's Knee]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Zeller has turned into a pretty decent big man, but I think the Mavs just needed bodies coming into this season since they are long term contract contagious. Certainly does look bad in hindsight though. Good centers are tough to come by.

They could have kept Zeller and easily picked up a few undrafted players, or some scrubs, or bring up some d-leagers to fill the minutes (things they've been doing anyway, especially considering how little playing time James and Cunningham have received) plus it would have given them different free agent requirements and maybe we would have ended up with a better forward rather than Crowder (who was showing some promise but is at least a couple years from being a solid player IF he develops) to fill the line up rather than having to pick up both Kaman and Brand.

To me, its simply another in a long line of failures of Mavs scouts to see talent especially in the post positions. I have very little faith a lottery pick is a cure for the Mavs woes. If I don't see a trade very soon, I think we will be on a 3-5 year rebuild looking at a post Nowitski Maverick line up before we see the playoffs again. Very sad to go from Champions to bust in such a short period...

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

They could have kept Zeller and easily picked up a few undrafted players, or some scrubs, or bring up some d-leagers to fill the minutes (things they've been doing anyway, especially considering how little playing time James and Cunningham have received) plus it would have given them different free agent requirements and maybe we would have ended up with a better forward rather than Crowder (who was showing some promise but is at least a couple years from being a solid player IF he develops) to fill the line up rather than having to pick up both Kaman and Brand.

To me, its simply another in a long line of failures of Mavs scouts to see talent especially in the post positions. I have very little faith a lottery pick is a cure for the Mavs woes. If I don't see a trade very soon, I think we will be on a 3-5 year rebuild looking at a post Nowitski Maverick line up before we see the playoffs again. Very sad to go from Champions to bust in such a short period...

I guess I am just numb to it at this point since everything has gone wrong this season. I just want SOMETHING to be positive this season. I was hoping it would be Beaubois but eh...

Sucks to think about the draft, and it isn't even mid-January.

[Mav-er-ick]

Although the Mavs have not shown a good consistent drafting track record over the years, I think it might be to their advantage to tank to get the best pick possible, not to use the pick, but to trade it.

Cuban's whole game plan going into this season, after missing on Deron, was to let the other teams hang themselves on huge deals and bad contracts in the new era of the new CBA. Only a few teams truly have a shot at winning the title. After teams start bleeding more and more luxury tax money from being repeat offenders, and seeing they arent true title contenders, they will start dealing some of their pieces on the cheap to save cap space. And that is when Cuban wants to swoop in and use his cap flexibility to make a competitive team. Its going against the grain than the rest of the league and its a risky move.

That said, it would be premature to now go in panic mode and make a bad or even neutral trade just to try and get the 8th spot this year. Even if the Mavs find a way to claw back to the 8th spot, they arent a title contender. Anything is possible, but business decisions shouldnt be built around hopes and dreams.

The Mavs should get the best pick possible and then during the off-season make a move to get a player from one of these teams that will start regretting some of their contracts in the new CBA era and use the good draft pick as one of the main pieces for the trade. That way, Cuban may save himself from taking on other bad contracts in order to make a trade work because the other team is getting a high value item. Right now the Mavs really dont have any appealing pieces to trade except for expiring contracts, and that may not be enough to get a good player from a team without them wanting the Mavs to also take on other bad contracts.

[Dirk's Knee]

This is under the assumption that Cuban has some type of insight which everyone else doesn't. Already, we've seen that most the teams simply don't care that the rules have changed. Who's to say that the teams with money don't just pay up? If we trade, we assume the same bad contract you're the other teams made. The only way Cuban's rules make sense is to get them as free agents as the sign and trade block would be in effect for teams over the cap. Which means we have to be an attractive location for free agents...which we've seen has not been the case. Would you prefer to get a player who wants to come in or a player who comes because there is no other choice? In fact (and I hate to play this card), but how many players are going to put their faith long term into a front office which broke up a championship team and tanked the following 2 seasons? We need to do something now to show potential free agents that the front office refuse to loose...