Are the Mavs Finally Good? - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

G-Man · 03-14-2022, 04:48 PM

I've always said NBA teams get good in stages.

They start off so bad, the only games they win are at home, against other bad teams. Then they get good enough to beat bad teams on the road, and middle of the road teams at home. Next stage, they can beat middling teams on the road and challenge elite teams at home. The final stage comes when they can beat elite teams, both at home and on the road.

So look at the games since January 1. They have beaten Miami, Boston, Philly, Atlanta, Chicago, the Lakers, the Clippers, Memphis twice, Golden State (2 of 3), Clippers (1 of 2) Utah (1 of 2). That is an incredibly solid record against all the playoff teams they've faced, including road wins at Memphis, Miami, Golden State, Lakers and Boston. Four of their losses have been to bad teams,and four to those that are playoff bound.

By my own yardstick, that makes this a good team, able to beat anyone anywhere. But somehow, in my gut, I have my doubts. They are finally learning how to win close games in crunch time, but they struggle against good big men, and on any given night, the shooting can go from fantastic to funky. I could see them beating anybody in the playoffs, but could just as easily see them get bounced in the first round again.

It feels like they are missing several key pieces, yet Kidd's defensive schemes allow them to even beat teams like Philly, that have dominant bigs.

The obvious answer is we won't know how good they are until it counts in the playoffs, but that is weeks away. I want to know what you think. Are the Mavs finally, really good?

Melonhead · 03-14-2022, 06:04 PM

Truly believe their only real weakness is a guy in the paint taller than 6’8 and faster than Boban. We don’t even need him to be a star, just a banger that can grab boards and dunk

Scoobay · 03-14-2022, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Truly believe their only real weakness is a guy in the paint taller than 6’8 and faster than Boban. We don’t even need him to be a star, just a banger that can grab boards and dunk

Grab boards
Defend in space
Rim runner/dunk
Big body - inside defense
Block shots

Luxury:
Outside shot - 3pt range

Please find someone worth growing in the draft with our first
And trade a future pick and THJ for some established nba vet with some of the above qualities

Dallas41 · 03-14-2022, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scoobay

Grab boards
Defend in space
Rim runner/dunk
Big body - inside defense
Block shots

Luxury:
Outside shot - 3pt range

Please find someone worth growing in the draft with our first
And trade a future pick and THJ for some established nba vet with some of the above qualities

Myles Turner
Mo Bamba
Mitchell Robinson

MFFL · 03-14-2022, 10:24 PM

We won't know until the playoffs. If we lose in the first round again then we are back on the same treadmill

BigDog63 · 03-15-2022, 08:25 AM

Dont diagree that would be a nice addition, but Mavs have players that do most of thosecthings, and if they can't, and its needed, they send in Boban. They do a surorisingly good job lately against opposing bigs.

Melonhead · 03-15-2022, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigDog63

Dont diagree that would be a nice addition, but Mavs have players that do most of thosecthings, and if they can't, and its needed, they send in Boban. They do a surorisingly good job lately against opposing bigs.

Thats also the regular season. The frontcourt is far from built for series grind.

G-Man · 03-15-2022, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Thats also the regular season. The frontcourt is far from built for series grind.

The Mavs recently beat the two teams with the best big men. And as for the playoffs, the Clippers don't have a dominant big man either, yet they eliminated Utah last year. And against Atlanta last year, Embid scored 31, 37 and 41 in three games they LOST, and got bounced in the 2nd round. Meanwhile, Milwaukee won it all without a dominant big.

So if teams without a super powered center can win the championship, I return to a modification of the original question, Are these Mavs good enough?

saclare · 03-15-2022, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-Man

The Mavs recently beat the two teams with the best big men. And as for the playoffs, the Clippers don't have a dominant big man either, yet they eliminated Utah last year. And against Atlanta last year, Embid scored 31, 37 and 41 in three games they LOST, and got bounced in the 2nd round. Meanwhile, Milwaukee won it all without a dominant big.

So if teams without a super powered center can win the championship, I return to a modification of the original question, Are these Mavs good enough?

To be fair to this argument, Zubac and Lopez probably give you a better defensive chance against Gobert and Ayton than Powell and Maxi could. Not saying it can't be done, but I think most would welcome a big center to this roster like the two I mentioned. Doesn't have to be a star or stud, just needs to be a bigger compliment to Powell when needed, and to be able to do it longer than Boban.

Melonhead · 03-15-2022, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-Man

The Mavs recently beat the two teams with the best big men. And as for the playoffs, the Clippers don't have a dominant big man either, yet they eliminated Utah last year. And against Atlanta last year, Embid scored 31, 37 and 41 in three games they LOST, and got bounced in the 2nd round. Meanwhile, Milwaukee won it all without a dominant big.

So if teams without a super powered center can win the championship, I return to a modification of the original question, Are these Mavs good enough?

Good enough for what? To win a series? Yes. To compete for a title? No

IIRC the bucks, who have Lopez and Giannis won the championship.

Clippers have very good centers.

Do we even need to go back over the Ben Simmons fiasco last year?

I never said the Mavs need a super powered center, they need one taller than 6'8 that can bang down low and decrease the amount of offensive boards for the other team, and put back some dunks. Powell, Kleber will not get us deep in the playoffs and will wear down over a series or more.

mac222b · 03-15-2022, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Good enough for what? To win a series? Yes. To compete for a title? No

IIRC the bucks, who have Lopez and Giannis won the championship.

Clippers have very good centers.

Do we even need to go back over the Ben Simmons fiasco last year?

I never said the Mavs need a super powered center, they need one taller than 6'8 that can bang down low and decrease the amount of offensive boards for the other team, and put back some dunks. Powell, Kleber will not get us deep in the playoffs and will wear down over a series or more.

I agree. Bucks also had Portis and PJ Tucker. Being able to mix and match is important in the playoffs. Portis isn’t what we need because of defensive lapses but he is a FA this summer.

purplefrog · 03-15-2022, 03:37 PM

Draft Oscar T. from Kentucky. He's a beast.

Dallas41 · 03-15-2022, 06:38 PM

I don't know if we are good, but I do know Kidd is better for this team than RC had been for a long time.

I always thought RC was living off reputation because of the 2011 title season.

Many fans considered him a top 5 coach which I thought was ridiculous and some even questioned if he could be replaced by someone better.

Well Kidd has pretty much taken a generic roster with most of the same players that allegedly couldn't play defense under RC and they are limiting opponents to the fewest points per game.

They don't seem to take many nights off like they did under RC and if they lose the 1st qtr. that stats doesn't seem to matter as much under Kidd as it did with RC.

So I'd say from a coaching perspective YES this team is better

EricaLubarsky · 03-23-2022, 01:22 PM

The real question is where we want to end up. Only ten games left.

1) +14 Suns (statically eliminated)
2) +5 Grizzlies (7-3) (statistically VERY unlikely. Mavs would have to go 10-0 and Grizz 0-10)
3) +3 Warriors (4-6)
4) +1 Jazz (6-4)
5) -------Mavs-------------(7-3)
6) -1.5 Nuggets (6-4)
7) -2.5 Wolves (8-2)
8)-9.0 Clippers (statistically eliminated even if Mavs went 0-10 and Clippers wend 10-0)

Difficulty of remaining schedule
Grizzlies - 3rd hardest
Jazz - 4th hardest
Clippers - 6th hardest
Wolves - 7th hardest
Mavs - 28th hardest

My playoff priority - record -- how we get them
1) Warriors (3-1) -- (Warriors drop to 4/5 or Mavs drop to 6th) - Warriors just aren't as strong lately. Curry is likely out until the playoffs. May not even be back then. Luka averages 32ppg against them with good efficiency. I think if we had more time, this would be almost guaranteed. As it is, it's still very likely.

2 ) Grizzlies (3-1) -- (Mavs fall to 7th and win in the play-in to keep it). Another team we have won the season series against. As good as the Grizz have been, the Grizzlies just don't match up well with us. Luka has monster games against them (30pts, 11reb, 9ast on 53% shooting)

3) Jazz (1-2) -- (current standings, or Jazz climb to 3rd and Mavs fall to 6) Luka averages 29-11-9 against them, but the interior defense and outside shooting of the Jazz is lethal. It would be fitting that the first playoff series win would be against the Jazz when that was Dirk's first, but I'm not confident we could win 4 against them.

4) Nuggets (2-1) -- (VERY unlikely. Warriors would have to fall 5games with only 10 games left. Mavs would have to climb to 4th and Nuggets to 5th) - Even though we won the series against them, I want no part of the Nuggets. They are dangerous.

5) Suns (0-3) -- (Mavs fall to 7th and lose a game of the play-in to drop to 8. Statistically we'd have to end the season 0-10 to get 8th otherwise). I know we played the Suns early when we were bad, but I still want nothing to do with the Suns. Luka only averages 28-8-7, but on 39% and 22% from three. No one defends Luka better and the Suns have no weaknesses. They defend every position well. Inside and outside. They have scoring from every spot and clutch scoring. Nope. Just nope. Luckily there is a very low chance we get them.

6) No one (0-0) -- (Mavs fall to 7th and lose in the play-in). If we lost to the Clippers (who are locked into 8) and then the Lakers, I would cry forever and we wouldn't even make it to the playoffs.

Most likely opponents
According to 538
1) Jazz - 50% chance
2) Warriors - 25% chance
3) Grizzlies - 24% chance
4) Suns/all else - 1%

EricaLubarsky · 03-24-2022, 09:02 AM

Warriors won. Jazz lost.

Mavs now tied with the Jazz. We just don’t have tiebreaker.

Looks less and less likely the Mavs or Jazz will climb into 3rd

Robillion · 03-24-2022, 11:00 AM

Any way the Mavs can avoid playing the Suns in the 2nd round, they should be pushing for. So, Im rooting for the Warriors to keep falling. If not, then home court advantage is real again for the Mavs it seems and I would think especially so against Utah, so I'd feel pretty confident against them if we get the 4 spot.

Melonhead · 03-24-2022, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robillion

Any way the Mavs can avoid playing the Suns in the 2nd round, they should be pushing for. So, Im rooting for the Warriors to keep falling. If not, then home court advantage is real again for the Mavs it seems and I would think especially so against Utah, so I'd feel pretty confident against them if we get the 4 spot.

Mavs would have to fall to 6. Warriors would have to go winless to drop 3 games with 9 left.

EricaLubarsky · 03-24-2022, 11:14 PM

Nuggets lose again

Inching closer to statistically guaranteeing at least 5th

EricaLubarsky · 04-07-2022, 05:01 PM

After 80 games

14th offense
7th defense

The offense puzzles me. We went from setting records for best offense of all time to 14th. I know last year we had a five-out with all five guys parking on the three-point line. It got us a lot of open threes, but the Clippers figured out they could just cheat off guys and they could stop Luka while three-point shooters missed. We got some more shooters in SD and Bullock, but obviously we can go ice cold from distance and haven't figured out a consistent offense without threes.

Defense? I'm thrilled. I didn't think Kidd could even get us to 15th. How does Kidd have us as a top 10 team with our roster? We have no shot-blockers and our best PF/C defensively is Kleber.

SMC0007 · 04-08-2022, 07:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

After 80 games

14th offense
7th defense

The offense puzzles me. We went from setting records for best offense of all time to 14th. I know last year we had a five-out with all five guys parking on the three-point line. It got us a lot of open threes, but the Clippers figured out they could just cheat off guys and they could stop Luka while three-point shooters missed. We got some more shooters in SD and Bullock, but obviously we can go ice cold from distance and haven't figured out a consistent offense without threes.

Defense? I'm thrilled. I didn't think Kidd could even get us to 15th. How does Kidd have us as a top 10 team with our roster? We have no shot-blockers and our best PF/C defensively is Kleber.

Scheme, early hedging and rotations, more focus on where to help from and when. Understanding how this fluctuates based on who they are going to double. Etc.

saclare · 04-08-2022, 11:02 AM

I think the Mavs offense is and will be just fine. I think the ranking is more a reflection of the roller coaster of a season, which gives me great confidence in the team defense ranking. It means the overall scheme is working and here to stay. But there's been a lot of players in and out, and we are seeing some consistency return to more role players, most notable Bullock. We will need Maxi and Bertans to find some sort of consistent contribution on that end as they have not been great at all, despite a track record of at least decent shooting...