Official Political Poll Thread

[dude1394]

Here is a new one.. But unfortunately this is no longer a reputable news source. It's from C "BS".

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- President Bush has maintained his post-convention bounce and even grown his support to a nine-point lead over Democratic rival John Kerry, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll released Friday.

Fifty percent of respondents support Bush, compared with 41 percent who support Kerry, up from 49 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry just one week ago.

The nationwide poll was conducted in a telephone survey of 1,088 registered voters from Thursday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

And Bush's support is much stronger than Kerry's support, which is roughly divided among those who favor Kerry and those who dislike Bush.

[dude1394]

Philadelphia Columnist thinks kerry is toasty.

John Baer | Figures cast a poll over Kerry bid

FIVE NEW polls in Pennsylvania this week are very bad news for John F. Kerry.

They say, in my view, that if something doesn't change real soon, this election is over.

Here's why.

Pennsylvania is essential to Kerry. He can't win without it.

And if, by mid-September, his inept, nondirected, Vietnam-bogged, messageless, where-the-heck-is-Edwards campaign is behind in this state, he's in serious trouble.

In-state polling by Rasmussen, ABC News, Quinnipiac University, Strategic Vision and the Keystone Poll all show Bush now ahead of Kerry.

Granted it's by small margins and within the margin of error.

But it's also a clear change of direction - just last month Kerry led Bush in the Keystone Poll by 6 percentage points - indicating momentum for the president.

This in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 440,000, where Democratic presidential candidates prevailed the last three election cycles, where job loss approaches Depression-era numbers, where Kerry (OK, his wife) has a home and where issues such as health care and the economy (hardly Bush strong points) are priorities for a majority of voters.

Moreover, even as all hell continues to break loose in Iraq, Bush is reclaiming his footing on the war.

The Quinnipiac Poll, which in spring showed Pennsylvanians, by a 51-42 margin, opposed to the war, this week shows state voters evenly split, 47-47.

Go figure.

"It's certainly not good news for Kerry," says Quinnipiac poll director Clay Richards. "Kerry should be stronger in Pennsylvania."

What happened? Two things, basically.

One, the Bush campaign is simply better.

And, two, while Kerry can blame aides and ad guru Bob Shrum or the month of August and a finance-law provision denying him equal TV spending with Bush, the truth is he's just not a good candidate.

From not knowing how to order a cheesesteak in Philly to voting for something before voting against it in Washington to calling legendary Lambeau Field "Lambert Field" in Wisconsin, Kerry shows a disregard for things average folks know and understand.

Voters, used to Bushisms, expected more. They didn't get it.

And Kerry's not here.

Think Bush's frequent visits (36 times so far, more than double Kerry's) have an impact? I do.

Plus, the Bush campaign tactic of constantly pushing vague themes such as "decisive leadership" and broad attacks such as "flip-flops" works.

As do swift-boat ads that gnaw at the underbelly of Kerry's war-hero image and anger many veterans (Pennsylvania has the fifth-largest veteran population in the nation).

Remember, we don't elect people on the basis of who's right or most capable. We elect the best campaigner.

The Bush campaign is showing it knows how to win. The Kerry camp is showing vulnerability.

Kerry's state chief, Tony Podesta, tells me Kerry is poised to spend more time here, buy more TV and focus on issues key to the state.

"We are not shocked or disheartened," he says, about the new polling data. "It's always better to be ahead than behind, but it only really matters once."

That's true. I just wonder whether that once already has come and gone.

[Dooby]

Originally posted by: dude1394
Polling is pretty weird. I think he's up about 5-7 points. RCP is a pretty good indication using averages of the polls. Bush seems however to be taking a pretty good lead in the ohio, florida states. Pennsylvania is closer. Kerry has to take pennsylvania and one of the other two or he's toast.

For the record, RCP was waaaaay off on their final prediction of the 2000 election.

[dude1394]

Was it the average of polls? If so then they were just way off because everyone else was.

[dude1394]

This is pretty funny. First it's NYTimes/CBS poll so you know it's going to be as anti-bush as possible. But then the poor punkins have to write this.

Mr. Kerry's problems have apparently been deepened by the relentless attacks on his Vietnam War record by a group of Vietnam veterans supported by backers of Mr. Bush. Three-quarters of respondents said they were aware of the advertisements produced by the group, many of which involved accusations unsupported by official records; of those, 33 percent called the accusations "mostly true."

More than 60 percent of respondents said Mr. Kerry was either "hiding something" or "mostly lying" in discussing his service in Vietnam. At the same time, 71 percent said that Mr. Bush was "hiding something" or "mostly lying" about his Vietnam era service in the National Guard, which has been the subject of questions about how he got a coveted out-of-combat assignment, and whether he fulfilled the required service.

Sixty percent of respondents said they did not have confidence in Mr. Kerry to deal wisely with an international crisis; that is a jump from 52 percent in June. By contrast, 48 percent said they were uneasy with Mr. Bush's ability to manage a foreign crisis.

For all of that, there are signs that the election remains competitive, and that the upcoming debates could prove pivotal to Mr. Kerry's hopes. Respondents said they were unhappy with Mr. Bush's handling of the economy and of Iraq, and said his policies had increased the cost of prescription drugs and decreased the number of jobs.

I especially like the last sentence highlighted. Little green aliens signs? Astrology? Palmistry? What signs exactly are they thinking. Maybe that kerry will get taken over by a pod-person and become something other than a stuffed-politician?

Maybe an owl hooted when they typed this on their old olympia typewriter. ??

[Drbio]

electoral-vote.com

Don't look now but Bush is up 331-207.


ouch.

[dude1394]

Ouch...

NYTimes/CBS Poll (I know, not reputable news sources, but humour me). Question:
Do you think John Kerry says what he means or does he say what people want to hear:
Says what he means: 30%
Says whatever you want to hear: 63%.

You would think this is recent but in 3/10/04 it was still 33-57.

Conversely bush is 55-43.

[dude1394]

Good grief. Kerry can't even carry New YORK comfortably. It's good to know the people of new york know who the hell is serious about combating terrorism and trying to keep their asses intact.

New York: Kerry 49% Bush 44%

Presidential Ballot
Bush 44%
Kerry 49%
Nader 2%
Not Sure 5%

RasmussenReports.com

September 20, 2004--John Kerry's lead in New York is down to single digits. The Empire State, among the bluest of the Blue States from Election 2000, is still in the Kerry column for our Electoral College projections, but the raw numbers are stunning.

Confirming findings found in other recent polls, Rasmussen Reports shows John Kerry leading George Bush by merely five percentage points, 49% to 44%. Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry New York by a 25 point margin. Our last New York survey found Kerry up by 19 points.

Bush is also closer than expected in neighboring New Jersey.

Rudy Giuliani, Mayor of New York on 9/11 and one of the nation's most popular political figures, strongly endorsed the President at the Republican National Convention. That may be connected to the President's rise in the state's Election Polls.

Nearly a quarter of the state's Democrats now say they will vote for Bush.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of New Yorkers now Approve of the President's Job Performance. That's a six-point increase since our last survey in the state.

[dude1394]

Uh oh....Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 211 Bush 327.... wonder how the fact of the kerry campaign passing forged documents will affect his campaign. For the lovers of the maggott moore and clintonites, they will probably cheer it.

electoralvote

[MavKikiNYC]

[Dooby]

A little more poll lecturing today.
Michael Moore reports that the polls are wrong because they are of "likely voters."

"Likely" means those who have consistently voted in the past few elections. So that cuts out young people who are voting for the first time and a ton of non-voters who are definitely going to vote in THIS election. Second, they are not polling people who use their cell phone as their primary phone. Again, that means they are not talking to young people. Finally, most of the polls are weighted with too many Republicans, as pollster John Zogby revealed last week. You are being snookered if you believe any of these polls.

I am not going to quibble too much with what Moore said because to an extent, it echoes what I have already said. But I do have a few comments:

First of all, a lot of polls conducted over the last 40 years used “likely” voters, which means the same thing they have meant for 40 years. So, not counting young people doesn’t make current polls any more inaccurate than in previous elections. Not a big deal.

And it isn’t like you need a long history of voting. If somebody was so angry over Florida Recount 2000, presumably they registered then and could have and did vote in the 2002 election. And to my knowledge, that makes you a “likely” voter to most pollsters.

Second, I will frankly be surprised if there are a significant number of new voters this year. It is possible, but I don’t think it is likely. Oh, there are some people that will vote for the first time out of outrage, I suppose, but I guarantee you the Democrats that are paid to think aren’t relying on them. Frankly, I think Gore maxed out the vote in most of his key constituencies and I won’t be surprised if those numbers decline. But the truth is nobody (including the candidate) knows how good a GOTV plan is until the day of the election.

Third, the cell phone as primary phone argument is part of my earlier technology argument. I think that is a fraction of one percent of the population and I roll my eyes if anyone thinks that is going to make a difference.

Finally, Moore says “most of the polls are weighted with too many Republicans, as pollster John Zogby revealed last week.” Well, not exactly. Zogby was as much defending his own poll as anything else. The truth is Zogby “thinks” the other polls poll too many republicans and weighs his poll with a certain number of democrats to create polls in line with his way of thinking. Now, Zogby could be right. But if you buy Zogby, then you have to deny everybody else. But Zogby could be wrong, too. I will point out that Zogby has missed every election since 1996 “to the left”.

So what does it mean? The polls look bad for Kerry; and the polls are bad for Kerry. But that is all they are.

[Dooby]

Zogby Release 9-22

Zogby says the race is tightening in the electoral college, by his analysis that Bush is gaining ground and Kerry losing traction. This is because his polls have consistently shown Kerry to be doing better than other polls and now his data is starting to reflect what other polls have shown.

I personally think Zogby is behind the curve on this and he offers waaaay too much opinion.

[Dooby]

Required reading if you want to know about polls:

The Mystery Pollster

[Dooby]

AP: Bush up 7 (52-45)

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/st...092400959.html

[Drbio]

After showing a slight Kerry bump the other day, electoral-vote.com now updates using mainly liberal pollsters results to show Bush surging ahead 311-217.

ouch!!!!!

[Mavdog]

SEPTEMBER 20, 2004 [Return to Battleground Poll]
President Bush has picked up some more ground in his tight race against Sen. John Kerry, but there are also signs of resilience in the Kerry campaign.

The latest Zogby Interactive poll of 16 battleground states shows Mr. Kerry ahead in 11 states, one state fewer than in a poll taken during the Republican convention two weeks earlier. Because Mr. Kerry's lead is thin in several states, including Florida, where the candidates remain less than a percentage point apart, the race is even closer than 11-5 state tally depicts.

Let's run the numbers.

To recap, in analyzing Zogby's results, we begin by assuming that the District of Columbia and the 34 states that aren't in the battleground poll will vote for the same political party this November as they did in the 2000 election. (That assumption has become less firm since Mr. Bush picked up strength following the Republican convention. More on that later.) Thus, in our analysis, Mr. Bush starts with 189 electoral votes, while Mr. Kerry begins with 172. To win the White House, a candidate must capture 270 electoral votes.

From that starting point, we add in the electoral votes from the latest poll, regardless of the margin of error or the spread between the candidates. Mr. Kerry's 11 states control 125 votes, while Mr. Bush's five states have 52. Thus, if the results on Election Day match the findings of the Zogby poll, Mr. Kerry would win, 297-241.

That 56-electoral-vote spread is the narrowest we've found in our battlegrounds analyses since late July, just before the start of the Democratic convention.

If you take away the states with the narrowest spreads between the candidates, things are even tighter. Excluding Florida and Arkansas, which Mr. Kerry leads by less than one point, the senator's lead is 264-241, with 33 electoral votes up for grabs. Taking away four states where fewer than three points separate the candidates, Mr. Kerry is ahead 254-236, with 48 votes up for grabs.

Still, there are signs that Mr. Kerry is gaining back some of the strength that was sapped during the Republican convention. In the latest poll, Mr. Kerry gained ground on the president in nine states, while Mr. Bush improved his standing in six. In one state, Wisconsin, there was no change in the margin between the candidates.

Mr. Bush lost some ground in the crucial Ohio race; his lead there had been greater than the margin of error in the prior two polls. This time, Mr. Bush was ahead by 3.3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error. Mr. Kerry's position improved a bit in Pennsylvania. That state, which had been solidly in his column before the Republican convention, gave the senator a 3.1 point lead, up from 2.8 points.

And, Mr. Kerry has made more progress than Mr. Bush in solidifying his support in the battlegrounds that the Democrats won in 2000. The senator's lead is greater than the margin of error in five of the eight battlegrounds that Al Gore won. Mr. Bush's lead is greater than the margin of error in just one of the eight battlegrounds he won last election.

Of course, all of this math is predicated on the nonbattleground states voting the same way this time as last -- and that has become less certain in recent weeks. In New Jersey, for instance, which Mr. Gore won in 2000 and which had been considered solidly for Mr. Kerry, a survey of likely voters conducted Sept. 12-14 by SurveyUSA found Mr. Bush ahead by four points.

Among other states the Democrats carried by comfortable margins in 2000: In Maine, a Zogby telephone poll of likely voters Sept. 9 found the candidates tied; and in New York, a Quinnipiac Unversity poll of registered voters Sept. 7-12 found the president just six points behind Mr. Kerry. A month earlier, Mr. Kerry had an 18-point lead in that poll.

Wall Street Journal article

[Drbio]

Ahhh....Zogby...the DNC "good news where the ain't any" outlet.

[Mavdog]

yeah, the Wall Street Journal is such a DNC tool....[img]i/expressions/anim_roller.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

Mavdookie- I hope you are pulling your head out long enough to get a fresh breath of air every now and then. [img]i/expressions/anim_roller.gif[/img]

[Mavdog]

DrCleo- someday you will get a clue. So far, you 've missed out.
Good luck.

regards,
mavdog

[Drbio]

You are so funny..... Thankfully you and the other libidiots will be crying for the next four years.

[dude1394]

No wonder kerry is crying for Bush to stop running ads using his own positions!


Bush Maintains Lead in Post-ABC News Poll
Voters View President As Better Candidate on Iraq, Terrorism

By Richard Morin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, September 27, 2004; 5:00 PM

President George W. Bush maintains a clear lead over Democrat John F. Kerry and continues to be perceived by most voters as the candidate best able to deal with Iraq and the war on terrorism, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Bush currently receives 51 percent among likely voters while Kerry gets 45 percent and independent Ralph Nader receives 1 percent. Among all registered voters, Bush holds a seven-point advantage.
-----------------
Kerry continues to be viewed unfavorably by a plurality of voters. Fewer than four in 10 voters -- 37 percent -- say they have a positive impression of him, while 42 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. That finding suggests more people intend to vote for him than personally like him and highlights the fact that Kerry continues to be buoyed by a strong anti-Bush vote despite broad reservations about him.
--------------
Bush's job approval rating stands at 52 percent among all voters, unchanged from earlier this month.

-----------------

OUCH.... You go GIRLS!!

The survey suggests that Bush leads among men and has a narrow advantage among women. Among all registered voters, just over half of all men -- 53 percent -- currently support the president while 41 percent back Kerry. But among women, Bush holds a 49 percent to 46 percent advantage. In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by 11 percentage points among women but lost by 11 points among men.

[dude1394]

CNN/TODAY Poll 09/27/2004 - Updated 05:05 PM ET

Bush 52
Kerry 44

[dude1394]

babes for bush

"Another sign that we are cruising to victory!!"

[Dooby]

I don't know what to make of this so I'll just use Kerry Spot's comment:

IBD/TIPP SHOWS TIE [09/28 04:12 PM]

Revealing themselves to be either geniuses or way out of line with everyone else, the Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll of 649 likely voters, conducted from 9/22 - 9/27, shows a 45 percent to 45 percent tie.

Tied. And in a 2-man race it shows Kerry with a 1 point lead.

Huh.

IBD/TIPP's poll has not shown a propensity to favor either candidate. If there is any trend, it is that IBD/TIPP's poll has always shown the race close than any other; i.e., when polls showed either candidate way up, IBD/TIPP's poll was always closer.

[dude1394]

Bush Increases Lead Over Kerry in Latest Pew Poll

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites)'s lead over Democratic nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) increased to eight points in a Pew Research Center poll released on Tuesday, compared to a slight three-point lead in a poll conducted last week.

The telephone survey of registered voters showed 48 percent would vote for Bush and 40 percent for Kerry. A similar poll conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21 showed Bush with 45 percent and Kerry with 42 percent.

The Pew Research Center poll of 1,200 adults was conducted between Sept. 22 and Sept. 26 and included 948 registered voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

[Drbio]

Electoral-Vote.com has Bush ahead 317-202.

They are openly liberal so that should tell you something.

[dude1394]

What a purty,purty map.

npr election map

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner Loser
Bush Kerry
335 203

[Drbio]

Wow. That debate bump is sure helping Kerry.


Bush has now extended his lead at NPR to 352-186. Yep...that bump is sure nice eh reeds?

[knowitall]

If the voters come out, it might be closer than you think, Doc. Domestic issues will now surface. Kerry might surprise people. Bush has had nothing to offer.

[dude1394]

Kerry only has defeatism and socialism to offer.

[dude1394]

Interesting polling company Newsweek decided to use.

generationwhy

Let’s talk poll results.

Newsweek is getting all the coverage for their “groundbreaking” revelation that Kerry has overtaken Bush in the polls. But there may be a story within the story that Newsweek won’t tell you.

Aside from my prediction that the ‘news’ media would call this a horse race no matter what the outcome of the debate (Newsweeks’ title is “The Race is On”), there’s an peculiar background to the research company Newsweek chose to use this time.

For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,013 registered voters aged 18 and older between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

So who is PSRA? According to their website, the company is run by some folks who seem to really like Democrats.

Dr. Diane Colasanto, a Founder and Board Member has a slew of Democrat donations to her credit. She’s donated the federal limit of $2,000 to John Kerry. She’s given $2,500 to the DNC Services Corp., an arm of the Democratic National Committee (see the copyright notice on the DNC homepage). She gave $750 to Democrat candidate, Rush Holt.

G. Evans Witt, Principal & CEO likes to donate to Democrat candidates.

Dr. Mary McIntosh, Principal & President has given money to EMILY’S List, an organization that touts itself as “dedicated to taking back our country from the radical right wing by electing pro-choice Democratic women to federal, state, and local office.” The organization even mentions the President on its homepage:

While George W. Bush attempts to clean up his reckless, gun-toting cowboy image and present himself as a compassionate leader, EMILY's List is fighting back by kicking our WOMEN VOTE! 2004 campaign into high gear! To stop Bush in his tracks and fully implement our national WOMEN VOTE! program, we must raise $250,000 a week from today until election day.

McIntosh has also given money to the DNC Services Corp..

She also supports the National Women’s Political Caucus, a group that bills its mission to “recruit, train and support pro-choice women candidates for elected and appointed offices at all levels of government”

Now I don’t begrudge people for being politically active or donating to their causes. However, I think it is appropriate to question the motives of an organization hired to conduct a poll for a magazine when the poll seems to fly in the face of every other poll being presented. Like this one, or this one and this one.

It seems Newsweek has picked the perfect group to get the results they wanted so they could call this a horse race (as I predicted) and sell more copies of its magazine… that, and build momentum for its candidate of choice.

[dude1394]

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry
Updated Daily by Noon Eastern

Election 2004

Presidential Ballot
Bush 49.0%
Kerry 45.4%
Other 2.1%
Not Sure 3.7%

RasmussenReports.com
Sunday October 03, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%.
These results are based upon a survey of 3,000 Likely Voters conducted Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday afternoon. As a result, just over two-thirds of the interviews were conducted following Thursday night's Presidential Debate.

Interviews conducted on Friday and Saturday show Kerry with a one-point bounce so far since the debate. However, in post-debate interviews, Bush still leads 49% to 46%.

The debates did little to change voter perceptions of the candidates' political ideology. However, following the debate, there was an increase in the number who say finishing the mission in Iraq is more important than getting troops home as soon as possible.

[Dooby]

Just tossing some analysis of the Newsweek poll from various sources:

Richard Baehr at The American Thinker has completed a thought-provoking analysis of the Newsweek poll. Short version, their sampling is flawed Longer version:

The Newsweek poll indicates that by a 61%-19% margin, registered voters in the survey believe that Kerry won the debate. The survey also indicates that 74% of registered voters in the survey group watched the debate. Stop here. Approximately 62 million people watched the debate on television. There are approximately 135 to 140 million registered voters in the country. So fewer than half of all registered voters saw the debate, but 74% of Newsweek’s survey group did. Three networks conducted traditional post debate telephone surveys on who won the debate. Kerry won the debate according to all three surveys, but by margins of 9 to 16%, and ratios of 3 to 2 or 4 to 3. The Newsweek survey group thought Kerry won by about 4 to 1, and by 45%.

Does this sound like a representative sample to you? Did Newsweek merely interview the Washington press corps or the CBS News team?

The Rasmussen survey interviews 1,000 people a night. Their survey showed no change in the results from Friday night (after the debate) from the the two previous nights. Only 6% of all those interviewed by Rasmussen on Friday night indicated that the debate would have any effect on their candidate preference- 3% more likely to vote for Kerry, 2% more likely to vote for Bush and 1% now more undecided.

The Democracy Corps, the Democratic polling operation of Stanley Greenberg and James Carville, also has a new post-debate poll that shows Bush is still ahead, but now by 2% instead of 4% as he was two weeks ago. This probably means Bush is ahead by more than 2% of course, given the pollsters’ bias (this poll has consistently been more favorable to Kerry than almost all other national polls throughout the year). The internals on this poll also show higher job approval ratings for Bush after the debate than before. Similarly two networks found that while more debate viewers thought Kerry won the debate than Bush, the margin between Bush and Kerry in the election preference of these same viewers did not change after the debate from before. Bush remained ahead in both cases. The Los Angeles Times found a 1% shift to Kerry among those who watched the debate, and the paper, to its credit, clearly states that this group which watched the debate is not a representative national sample of the electorate.

You can bet that the Newsweek survey will be a big story the next few days. Kerry is ahead (the nation is safe). The race is certainly not over. Bush clearly did not get a lift from the foreign policy debate that his camp might have expected. The Kerry camp, which was in despair, however, has gotten a major morale boost. But I still think Bush is in better shape than Kerry with just over four weeks to go.

UPDATE: The blog Political Vice Squad says the Newsweek poll is skewed from its earlier one. They decreased Republican sampling by 5 percentage points and increased Democratic sampling by 6 percentage points. Furthermore, on the first of the three nights, the poll was limited to the "Pacific and Mountain time zones." In other words, registered voters from the following states completely were excluded: Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana, and the entire old South.

[Dooby]

Rasmussen shows no change.

Gallup shows tie.

I believe there is a change from the depate, but I doubt Kerry has a real lead, or that such lead is significant.

[Drbio]

OK...so the liberals are touting this new poll because they have spun a shift where one does not exist. They are setting themselves up for monumental disappointment in November. Since they have reduced republican voters responses approximately 5% and have increased dimocratic respondents approximately 6% (an 11% effect), they have seriously biased their results. This coming form a polling group that has gone out of its' way to show Kerry in a favorable light. The most favorable kerry pollsters in existence today. If I were a dimocrap, I would be more concerned about the impending ass whuppin' than I would be about doctoring up some polls.

Let's take a look at some of the bias. No respondents came from the following:

Texas - dominating republican poll results
Florida - toss up at best, but republicans lead in the latest Rasmussen poll 50%-44%
Ohio - Republican leads in all polls (latest is Rasmussen at 49-46)
Pennsylvania - kerry has a slight lead at 45-44% per Mason-Dixon poll. Again...a toss up.
Missouri - dominating republican lead per Rasmussen (51-42)
Louisiana - huge republican lead (51-42 per Amer. Research Group)
Arkansas - Clintons homies cannot suppress the Bush lead at 51-44% per Rasmussen
Kentucky - Ass kickin' Bush lead at 55-39 per Bluegrass
Indiana - 56-38 Bush lead. Good lord that is huge. Per Rasmussen and ARG.
and the entire old South (the red is blinding in these states and leads exist like 57-36, etc (Rasmussen et al.)
Check electoral-vote.com for a seriosuly red map from a liberal source.
Check NPR for an amazingly red map from another seriously liberal source.



Basically, the dimocrats are praising a seriously biased poll which is designed to include more dimocratic responses. If they want to wear the rose colored glasses in October that is fine with me. Maybe we won't be able to see their tears through them in November.


Bush is money.


Electoral-vote.com loves that redness.....

And if that isn't enough go to NPR and see the red continue to dominate to the tune of 352-186.


Ouch!

[reeds]

"Wow. That debate bump is sure helping Kerry.


Bush has now extended his lead at NPR to 352-186. Yep...that bump is sure nice eh reeds?"

I BEG TO DIFFER....


WASHINGTON - President Bush is now in a statistical dead heat with Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry for the Nov. 2 election, in a tightening of the race after the first debate last week, a pair of new polls show.

The USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll of likely voters taken between Friday and Sunday found Bush’s 8 point lead over Kerry in a Sept. 26 poll had evaporated and both candidates would get 49 percent of the vote if the election were held today. Independent Ralph Nader got 1 percent, compared to 3 percent in the previous survey.

And a Newsweek poll also also found that the president’s lead has vanished and the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race. Nader gets 2 percent.

The polls are the first to show that Bush took a hit following last Thursday’s debate, which focused on foreign policy and national security and drew an audience of at least 62.5 million, according to Nielsen ratings. However, they reflect the national popular vote, while it's the state-by-state Electoral College vote that determines the winner. NBC currently estimates that Bush has a 217-200 vote lead there, with 270 needed to win the Nov. 2 election.

In the USA Today survey, Kerry was judged the winner of the debate by more than two to one — 57 percent to 25 percent — of likely voters in the poll. Voters also thought the Democrat expressed himself more clearly and he was more intelligent, according to the poll.

USA Today said one reason for Kerry’s rise was growing unease about Iraq, which had emerged as a more powerful issue in the campaign — equal to the economy and only second to terrorism.

[Drbio]

It's going to be so much fun ripping you in November reeds. Of course, you probably will cower away like a true liberal. It's so much fun seeing you try so hard to put on a good liberal face when the facts are so strong. You can pull out liberally biased polls all you want, but it doesn't change the electoral map.

Your boy is going to be bitchslapped like the loser he is. You should prepare yourself.

[chumdawg]

You guys might be interested in this site: Trade Sports. Not only does it offer all the sports propositions you can handle, but it also has a political market (much like the Iowa markets but apparently more trafficked).

While the Iowa markets offer prices only on the electoral vote and popular vote outcomes, this market offers all kinds of other stuff. Over/under on total electoral votes, the outcomes of every state individually, even whether Cheney remains on the ticket until election day! Pretty interesting stuff.

Anyway, the bad news for Kerry fans is that Bush is trading at around 61, and Kerry at 39, to win the electoral vote.

What that means is that if you think Kerry will win the race, you can sign up today and buy all the Kerry shares you would like at $39 each. You can hang on to those shares until the bitter end--and yes, it will be a bitter end--and collect a smooth $100 if Kerry manages to pull the wool over the eyes of the electorate on election day. So you would profit $61, having only risked $39. A good deal for you if you like the "direction" this election is heading in!

Or you could be more savvy, not to mention risk-averse, about it and buy the shares at $39 today with the intention of selling them at $45 (or maybe more!) after Kerry trounces Bush in the next couple of debates. Just think: not only would it raise your political spirits if Kerry pulls another Houdini, but you profit $6 a share to boot!

Of course, you might underestimate Bush and end up being having to sell your $39 shares for ten bucks or so in a few weeks. Man, that would be a double whammy.

[jacktruth]

A search for historical poll data led to this. I thought it was good, though not as much info as I would like. I don't think there is a poll out there that will tell us what will happen on election day.

STATE POLL ANALYSIS IN 2000...WHY POLLS DO NOT MATTER RIGHT NOW (LONG)
by israelfox87
Mon Sep 20th, 2004 at 23:45:33 GMT

Below is an analysis of polls over time before the 2000 election.
NOTE THE LARGE SWINGS IN A MATTER OF DAYS, BLUE STATES "TREDING RED" ONLY TO ACTUALLY STAY EXTREMELY BLUE, AND RASMUSSEN'S INCREDIBLY INACCURATE POLLS.

Seems pretty similar to today.

Diaries :: israelfox87's diary ::

NEW JERSEY

June 22, 2000....Al Gore 44%, George Bush 41%

Headline: New Jersey is a Tossup

http://slerp.rutgers.edu/retrieve.php?id=126-3

September 5, 2000...Al Gore 39%, George Bush 32%

October 17, 2000....Al Gore 46%, George Bush 38%

Headline...Gore's lead trimmed, but still solid going into final debate

http://slerp.rutgers.edu/retrieve.php?id=128-1

Gore won New Jersey by 16 percent

-----------------------------------------------

ARIZONA

March 30, 2000...George Bush 41%, Al Gore 37%

BUSH AND GORE IN TIGHT RACE IN ARIZONA

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2000/3-30-00.htm

May 24, 2000...George Bush 45%, Al Gore 31%

BUSH "PULLS AHEAD" OF GORE

September 20...Al Gore 46%, George Bush 36%

GORE LEADS BUSH IN ARIZONA

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2000/9-20-00.htm

Bush won Arizona by 5.5 percent

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OREGON

September 5, 2000...Gore 42%, Bush 41%

September 20, 2000....Gore 45%, Bush 39%

September 20, 2000....Bush 45%, Gore 36%

October 21...Bush 43%, Gore 38%

Gore won by .4 percent

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PENNSYLVANIA

October 4...Bush 43%, Gore 41%

October 9...Gore 42%, Bush 36%

October 18...Bush 43%, Gore 42%

Gore won by 4 percent

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WISCONSIN

September 20, 2000...Gore 43%, Bush 38%

October 14, 2000...Bush 44%, 38%

Gore won by .18

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WASHINGTON

September 12...Gore 45%, Bush 41%

September 21...Gore 44%, Bush 37%

October 12...Bush 47%, Gore 36%

Gore won by 6

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CALIFORNIA

September 20...Gore 50%, Bush 38%

October 10...Gore 45%, Bush 39%

October 14...Gore 44%, Bush 40%

Gore won by 12