Ka-BOOM!

[madape]

Get ready for four years of the greatest economic expansion in US history. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

Hurricanes Jump-Start Hiring in October

Nov 5, 9:09 AM (ET)

By LEIGH STROPE

WASHINGTON (AP) - Employers aggressively hired new workers in October, adding 337,000 people to their payrolls after a sluggish summer, but the unemployment rate rose fractionally to 5.5 percent.

The pace of hiring was the fastest in six months, nearly double what economists had forecast, the Labor Department reported Friday, saying cleanup efforts from hurricanes that struck Florida and much of the Southeast helped jump-start the labor market.

But the overall, seasonally adjusted jobless rate actually rose by 0.1 percentage point from the 5.4 percent rate of September because more people renewed their job searches, expanding the pool of available workers.

The jobs report was good news for President Bush as he prepares for a second term. A generally weak job market plagued his re-election campaign, offering a political target to his Democratic challenger, John Kerry.

Economists had expected October payrolls to grow by about 175,000 with the jobless rate holding steady at 5.4 percent. Employers have added about 2.2 million jobs since August 2003.

Hiring in construction helped spur last month's job growth, with employment in that sector rising by a net 71,000 jobs.

"Some of this unusually large gain reflected rebuilding and cleanup activity in the Southeast following the four hurricanes that struck the U.S. in August and September," said Kathleen Utgoff, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In the past year, construction employment has grown by about 16,000 per month.

New jobs in professional and business services also helped strengthen overall job growth last month, with hiring expanding by 97,000. Temporary employment services were responsible for about half of that, giving ammunition to Bush critics who argue that much of the recent job growth is occurring in lower-paying work that typically doesn't offer heath insurance and other benefits.

October's job growth was the highest since March, when employers added 353,000 positions. Since that time, the pace had slowed, especially in June and July. But hiring has picked up since, growing by a revised 198,000 in August and 139,000 in September. Both figures were higher than originally reported by the Labor Department.

Manufacturing was the only major sector to lose jobs last month, with employment falling by a net 5,000. That followed a decline of 14,000 in September.

Some of the report showed a jobs market still struggling. The number of people who held more than one job rose by 519,000 to 8 million. The average time for the unemployed to find a job was 19.6 weeks, the same as in September.

The jobless rate for blacks jumped to 10.7 percent last month, up from 10.3 percent in September. The rate for Hispanics fell to 6.7 percent from 7.1 percent from the previous month, while the rate for teenagers grew to 17.2 percent from 16.6 percent. The rate for whites held at 4.7 percent.

But the economy is back on track, growing at a 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter, up from a 3.3 percent pace in the prior period.

Analysts think Federal Reserve policy-makers will continue to move rates from extraordinarily low levels to more normal levels to make sure inflation doesn't become a threat to the economy down the road.

The Fed is expected to boost short-term interest rates for a fourth time this year when it meets next week, pushing up a key rate from 1.75 percent to 2 percent.

[Drbio]

Bush deserves to receive teh credit for this economic growth. Fortuynately, horseface didn't win. Had he done so the dims would have wrongly touted him as the economic savior, even though Bush did the work.

[Rhylan]

It's just the nature of the beast when it comes to economic ups and downs.. it's damn near impossible for any one-term President to get the credit he deserves, since so much emphasis is placed on who's in office at the time. As if it's some sort of "good economy" button that a Prez can just push and make it better.

[dude1394]

WASHINGTON, Sept. 2 - The nation's pace of job creation remained strong in the weeks before Hurricane Katrina as the unemployment rate edged down to its lowest level in five years, the government reported today.
------
The Labor Department estimated today that the United States added 169,000 jobs in August and said the unemployment rate declined to 4.9 percent in August from 5.0 percent in July, the lowest rate since August of 2001.

4.9% Scoreboard baby..

[Drbio]

Scoreboard indeed. I heard a CNN report today that said it was likely that this trend would continue due to a significant number of homeless people not being able to go back into their old areas of comfort. Now that they have lost everything, the CNN reporter implied that it would force these people into finding work in the other states where they are being housed. I thought some of the report was in bad taste to be honest, but the trend opinion was kind of interesting. The rest of the story was about homeless folks and the challenges they now face and how this hurricane might force them back on their feet.

Interesting.

[chumdawg]

When a homeless person "los[es] everything," what exactly does he lose?

I question the logic there.

[Drbio]

The point (not that I care to defend a CNN reporter) was that these homeless folks had their areas of comfort. Areas where they knew where they could sleep, where they could get free meals, where they could do whatever. Now, they are knocked out of that comfortzone and have been removed into a new state. They are going to be forced in many cases to look into working. Many will be fortunate to get a break from emergency services in terms of training, job placement etc and will be getting opportunities to advance themselves where before they could not.

[chumdawg]

It's the "where before they could not" that rings hollow for me. I find it more likely that the person finds a new area of comfort than that he finds a job.

[Drbio]

I hope not.

[Mavdog]

I don't see how employment numbers will be positive after the hurricane. not only do you have the new unemployed in the devastated area, the after affects (literally) upstream will cause a slowdown there.

the inflation pressure will be worth watching, there were undercurrents before this and now with a constriction of the supply side a more steep ramp up will probably result. the cheap debt will be a thing of the past.

[dude1394]

Bush Boom scorecard update.

Dubya is moving in on 5million jobs created since his 2003 tax cuts. buzzcharts



This is a bunch....A timeline since NAFTA was enacted.



Wonder how much better it would have been if we had elected Kerry and the party of tax increases. Probalby better....huh?? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

Scoreboard.

[dude1394]

Da' Boom! No matter what, hurricanes, terrorist attacks, tech-bust.. The tax-cuts continue to do their magic.

U.S. employers expand payrolls in November

DEC. 2 3:19 P.M. ET The nation's businesses cranked up hiring in November after a two-month lull, a sign the labor market is back in the groove as the ill effects of the Gulf Coast hurricanes fade.

Employers expanded payrolls by 215,000 jobs last month, the most since July. The unemployment rate held steady at 5 percent.

The Labor Department's fresh snapshot of the jobs situation, released Friday, suggested employers are in a better hiring mood now that energy prices have retreated from record highs and disruptions to commerce from the hurricanes are easing.

[kg_veteran]

Now if we could just come up with some spending cuts...

[capitalcity]

Originally Posted by kg_veteran

Now if we could just come up with some spending cuts...

Word.

How much does the environmental protection agency cost?

[dude1394]

You know I've thought about spending cuts and I've concluded that the only way it can be done is by across-the-board cuts. X% or so. There just is not enough political courage to withstand the demagoguery that goes on. You cut the growth of a program and it's a huge cut and is starving someone.

It's just a lose-lose for a politician. If he brings home the bacon he gets re-elected. If he cuts any program, the opposition will parade someone on the evening news that is so, so, so sad that they look like ogres.

It's sort of like base-closings, if a representative actually PROPOSED one (even though it was a obviously not needed) they would be crucified.

[Mavdog]

while we can agree there is good growth to the economy recently, pinpointing what is responsible for that growth is where we diverge. the expansion is not due to tax cuts, it's due to classic keynesian "priming the pump" by government spending/easy money policies.

spending cuts are the toughest to push through, but they can be done if there's leadership at the top. this administration is 180 degrees from that.

[dude1394]

Right all those past presidents and congresses and spending cuts.

I'd like to see the number of presidents who decreased spending? And I'll be waiting a long, long time.

[Mavdog]

no president has reduced the total amount of spending.

some presidents have submitted budgets that reduce the rate of spending growth.

some presidents have had a balanced budget.

this president has done neither.

[Five-ofan]

I would love for the US to have a balanced budget but come on man. Even you have to admit that there have been mitigating factors. There are many things that the government needs to seriously cut spending on but the Bush adminstration has been faced with more catastrophes than any non world war adminstration in history.

[Mavdog]

No, I do not agree that this administration has faced "more catastrophies than any non world war in history", unless you include the catastrophies of their decision making...

Seriously, did you know that Bush has not vetoed A SINGLE appropriation bill? That the bush administration has submitted budget after budget that have the highest deficits in history?

[kg_veteran]

dude - You bring up an interesting suggestion. It might have to work that way in our current political system, because I don't know if anybody has enough courage to face the constituents and say that their (fill in the blank with the pork barrel project of your choice) isn't going to be there any more because we can't afford it. Look at how the Senator from Alaska reacted when the rather obvious pork barrel Bridge to Nowhere was attacked. He took it as a personal affront, primarily because he was afraid his constitutents would get pissed if he didn't.

We spend too much money, and the money we do spend isn't spent efficiently. If an across-the-board cut is what is required, I'm all for it.

[Ninkobei]

when companies like American Airlines and Blockbuster cut jobs, over 100,000 expected (rumor, don't quote me on this) how badly will this effect our economy?

[Rhylan]

If I was President, I would gather up a nice, long, broad, fair-minded, and downright ruthlessly non-porky list of stuff that needed to be cut. I would publicize it everywhere, with dollar amounts attached. I would relate it to the peeps by assigning a per-taxpayer dollar value to the total of the cuts. I would stick them into my proposed budget. And when congress weenied out and didn't accept my cuts, I would make a speech in prime time, effectively saying, "Congress, you suck," and go over all my talking points about how the government refuses to use the people's money wisely.

The congressional leaders of the opposition party (whether minority or not), would likely come out and accuse me of not being willing to work with congress, divider instead of uniter, cry cry cry, wah wah wah.

To which, I would address the American people and say, "make your choice. Spend money wisely, or spend money foolishly. Write your elected representatives Or better yet, go to my website at www.spendwisely.org and send them a message."

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by Ninkobei

when companies like American Airlines and Blockbuster cut jobs, over 100,000 expected (rumor, don't quote me on this) how badly will this effect our economy?

Well not too much to be honest since we are building 215K per month.

[dude1394]

Well one political party had the cajones to provide some spending cuts. Methinks however (as previously posted) they will get little political benefit from them. Neither from the supposed dems(as evidenced by the vote totals) who want less spending OR their own constituents. They will however be able to point to these votes when the dems hypocritically call spending into question. That's a national plus, but individual politicians won't get much benefit.

From polipundit

Less Federal Spending

The U.S. Senate on Wednesday passed a bill that reduces federal spending on various programs, including Medi-care and Medi-caid.

In the aggregate the bill reduces federal outlays by $40 billion over the next five years. And it marks the first time since 1997 and only the third time in the four-decade histories of those “health care entitlement” programs that real cuts to their respective growth rates have been implemented.

The vote was:

Zero = Democrats for less spending (0%).
50/55 = Republicans for less spending (91%).

45/45 = Democrats opposed to less spending (100%).
5/55 = Republicans opposed to less spending (9%).

Go figure.

Totals: 51-50, in favor of less federal spending.

Vice President Dick Cheney cast the deciding vote.

The measure now has to go back to the House for one final symbolic vote. But having already cleared that chamber – in which 96% of Republicans voted in favor of less spending and 100% of Democrats voted “no” {go figure} – it’s literally just a matter of time before the bill moves on to the Prez’s desk, at which point it’ll be signed into law.

I blame the GOP.

[dude1394]

More from polipundit

The Economy

The gummint issued its final reading on last quarter’s GDP growth:

4.1 percent.

Over the past four years, the economy has posted the following growth rates:

4.1 - Q3 2005
3.3 - Q2 2005
3.8 - Q1 2005
3.3 - Q4 2004
4.0 - Q3 2004
3.5 - Q2 2004
4.3 - Q1 2004
3.6 - Q4 2003
7.2 - Q3 2003
3.7 - Q2 2003
1.7 - Q1 2003
0.2 - Q4 2002
2.4 - Q3 2002
2.2 - Q2 2002
2.7 - Q1 2002
1.6 - Q4 2001

{Hooverville}

[Mavdog]

yeah, it's amazing what economic stimulus can result from over a $TRILLION in deficit spending.

Here's the Reuters Business news article:
-------------------------------------------------------
WRAPUP 2-US third-quarter growth cut, still best since 2004
Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:39 PM ET

(Recasts, adds mortgage applications data, analysis; updates market reaction)
By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON, Dec 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew a bit less robustly in the third quarter than previously thought and prices picked up, the government said on Wednesday in a report that showed consumers beginning to rein in their spending.

Gross domestic product, or total output within U.S. borders, expanded at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department said in its final estimate of growth for the period.

The rate was below the 4.3 percent the department had estimated a month ago, partly because new-car sales were slower and investment in home building was less than thought. Wall Street analysts had forecast no revision in the third-quarter growth rate.

Nonetheless, the revised rate was still the best quarterly GDP showing since a 4.3 percent pace of growth in the first three months of 2004, underlining the generally strong state of the economy. Many analysts anticipate at least a temporary moderation in growth during the fourth quarter, and there were hints of that in the third-quarter report.

U.S. Treasury debt prices weakened as investors focused on an upward revision to a key price index, although the size of the change was unlikely to alter the Fed's policy-setting course. Stocks were up at midday but the rally was sparked by strong earnings reports and news about acquisitions rather than the economic data.

PRICES CLIMB

Price pressures picked up slightly from the initial estimate a month ago, the GDP report showed. The price index for consumer spending rose at a 3.7 percent rate in the third quarter instead of 3.6 percent, ahead of the second quarter's 3.3 percent.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs and is the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, rose at a 1.4 percent rate, an upward revision from 1.2 percent but down from 1.7 percent in the second quarter.

The core rate implies little problem with inflation, although the Fed has indicated concern that a higher level of energy prices and tighter labor markets keep the potential for a flare-up in inflation alive.

The U.S. central bank has raised short-term interest rates 13 consecutive times since June 2004, bringing the federal funds overnight lending rate to 4.25 percent. Most analysts expect one or two more rises at least as policy-makers aim to bring rates back to more normal levels after cutting them to a 46-year low of 1 percent.

WATCH THE CONSUMER

Economist Elisabeth Denison of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in New York said the GDP report will draw attention to the possibility of consumers becoming reluctant to spend, especially amid the holiday shopping season.

"The big theme in the fourth quarter is going to be consumption spending. That is the real driver," Denison said. "We started weak with the car sales in September and October declining, so that will be something to watch, and now the retail holiday season in full swing ... that will be the theme."

Consumer spending, which fuels about two-thirds of national economic activity, advanced at a 4.1 percent annual rate instead of the 4.2 percent estimated a month ago, though that still was well ahead of the second quarter's 3.4 percent.

Investment in new-home building increased at a 7.3 percent annual rate instead of 8.4 percent estimated a month ago, well below the second quarter's 10.8 percent rate of growth.

Separately, the Mortgage Bankers' Association said U.S. mortgage applications dropped to an 11-month low last week as fewer people sought loans to buy new homes. "Housing has passed its peak," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact and Opinion Economics.

The association's seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week to Dec. 16 fell 4.0 percent to 594.6 from 619.3 the previous week.

Corporate profits suffered during the third quarter, falling 4.3 percent after taxes, in part because insurance companies were hit with big payouts after hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Profits in the second quarter rose at a 5.3 percent rate.

The Commerce Department said the hurricanes that lashed the U.S. Gulf Coast region in August and September cut third-quarter profits before taxes and adjustments by $165.3 billion, measured at an annual rate. Not only did insurers have to make huge benefits payments, but there also were losses of uninsured corporate property.

[dude1394]

Wow but when it comes time to cut a little bit of spending how many democrats get on board?

Zero = Democrats for less spending (0%).

Dare I say it... scoreboard.

[dude1394]

barone

The American economy continues to surge ahead, though you won't read much about it in mainstream media. Economic growth in the third quarter was 4.1 percent--despite Hurricane Katrina!--the 10th consecutive quarter with growth over 3 percent. Unemployment is 5.0 percent--lower than the average for the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s. Since April 2003 the economy has created a net 5.1 million new jobs. Core inflation is only 2.1 percent, and gas prices, which surged above $3 a gallon after Katrina, are now down around $2. Productivity growth for the five-year period of 2000-2005 is 3.4 percent, the highest of any five-year period in 50 years.

This is a remarkable performance and owes something surely to the Bush tax cuts and to Alan Greenspan's stewardship at the Federal Reserve. But it also tells us something broader about the American economy. Mainstream media coverage about the economy tends to be full of bad news, especially during Republican administrations, and to focus on economic problems. But over the longer term the story of the American economy is one of success. A quarter century ago many economic commentators said that the era of low-inflation, high-job-creation economic growth was over. In the ensuing 25 years it has come to be the norm.

[Mavdog]

it's pretty funny to read about the failings of "the mainstream media" - in US News and WR! just shows that nothing gets the right going like a good ole attack on the liberal controlled MSM. reminds me of the cingular ad where the big guy talks about "sticking it to the man", only to have his assistant mention that the big guy IS the man. US News is part of that MSM.

barone has written a great pep rally speech. funny, he doesn't mention these massive amounts of federal debts.

IMO comparing GM to WM is irrational. One is a manufacturer, the other is a distributor. one can source its product and control it to the point of delivery, the other can't even sell its own product at the point of delivery.

[dude1394]

[Arne]

Originally Posted by capitalcity

Word.

How much does the environmental protection agency cost?

Not enough.

[Mavdog]

Originally Posted by dude1394

isn't it amazing what one hyperactive segment (home values), that is a component of the "wealth" calculation, does to that number?

of course, home values have nothing to do with the Bush tax cuts.....

[dude1394]

Yea those bush tax cuts (like his freedom agenda) just didn't have any effect whatsoever. Everything would have just happened if we'd only been smart enough to raise taxes. Right...

[Mavdog]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Yea those bush tax cuts (like his freedom agenda) just didn't have any effect whatsoever. Everything would have just happened if we'd only been smart enough to raise taxes. Right...

I see that you cannot respond to the point made, but reply with nonsensical rhetoric.

You are the one who chose to try and correlate an increase in household net worth with the bush tax cuts. when that fallacious connection was exposed, rather than attempt to defend your assertion you toss out crap.

why have home values increased to the point of being called a "Bubble"? many say its the cheap/easy money, some mention the demographic shift in pop age, others point to a herd mentality that produces overexuberance on what the future value of a home will be.

I've not heard or read of anybody saying it is the tax cuts. until you did...but you can't defend that, can you?

the real irony is to do so would only conflict with your earlier point that tax revenues have increased due to the tax cut....

[dude1394]

To be honest I was just posting the graphic to show a continuing Bush boom. I expected a typical economy bash from yourself and got it. I really don't think the tax cuts had much to do with it, but I'm also sure people have extra bucks in their pocket certainly didn't hurt it.

[Mavdog]

Originally Posted by dude1394

To be honest I was just posting the graphic to show a continuing Bush boom. I expected a typical economy bash from yourself and got it. I really don't think the tax cuts had much to do with it, but I'm also sure people have extra bucks in their pocket certainly didn't hurt it.

"a typical economy bash"? that's crap, I don't "bash' the economy, i bash Bush. I bash charts that mistakenly give credit to Bush's tax cuts for the rise of household wealth. I bash charts on economic expansion that suggest the tax cuts are the reason.

most of all, I bash the huge deficits that Bush seems to ignore.

but I don't bash the economy.

[dude1394]

The rotten economic performance of Dubya' continues.

Checkout these items:

1) Initial Claims for Jobless Benefits

In the week ending Dec. 31 [2005], the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims [for jobless benefits] was 291,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week’s revised figure . . . . . The 4-week moving average [of initial jobless claims] was 316,750, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week’s revised average…..

IOW, millions upon millions of *more* people are working but *fewer* people are getting laid off.

Go figure.

2) Growth in the Services Sectors

Non-manufacturing business activity increased for the 33rd consecutive month in December [2005]. Business Activity[, Employment,] and New Orders increased at faster rates in December than in November.

3) Growth in the Manufacturing Sector

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in December [2005] for the 31st consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 50th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives….

4) Net Wealth

To top it off, as Poli noted earlier today, total net wealth for Americans reached yet another all-time high last year.

* * *

I blame the economy for all of this.

Oh, right, I also assign at least some degree of blame to the various conservative fiscal and economic policies implemented since George Dubya Bush took office five years ago, e.g., multiple tax cuts, multiple free trade statutes, rollbacks of job-killing enviro regs, etc.

Me too...

[dude1394]

Time for an update! 4.7% Scoreboard!

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in 4-1/2 years in January as employers hired 193,000 new workers, the government said on Friday in a report revising up job growth for the preceding five months.

The jobless rate dropped to 4.7 percent from 4.9 percent in December, the Labor Department said