Obama beats McCain in three swing states: poll

[alexamenos]

trippy...this dude nails it.

the left is convulsing and gnashing their teeth. How could we have allowed ourselves to so demean Sarah Palin as to turn her home-run speech into a genuine star-making speech by lowering expectations so much through our derision!?!

How could you have done that, you ask. That's not the right question. The right question is Is it even possible for you to avoid doing that?, because you do every. Single. God. Damn. Election. Cycle.

It works in my favor, and yet I'm still horrified to see you doing it every time.

Have you ever done anything else? Are you capable of doing anything differently? Even as conservatives snicker at you and tell you to your smug fat faces that you're making a gross strategic error, you continue doing so just the same!

I've been trying to articulate this thing about the palin pick....something like: 'the more the Dems attack her the more popular she will be, and the Dems are congenitally incapable of not attacking her.'

It is the smugness of the Dems that is so widely and wildly hated, and no one brings out the smugness of the Dems like a creationist gun toting make up and heels wearing pro-lifer mommy of five.

As Spoon sez...

you got no time for the messenger
no regard for the thing that you don't understand
you got not fear of the underdog
that's why you will not survive.

[aquaadverse]

"It is the smugness of the Dems that is so widely and wildly hated, and no one brings out the smugness of the Dems like a creationist gun toting make up and heels wearing pro-lifer mommy of five."

It's amazing how tone deaf the Dems are. Apparently there isn't any set number of blown elections that disqualifies them from leaderships roles in campaigns. I'm registered Independent, never voted straight ticket in my life. I've voted both parties for President. I held my nose and voted for Bush last time, and will vote Repug this time as well, reluctantly.

You would think the only Dem Presidents in the last 40 years being mostly centrists would have sunk in by now.

Why the hell would you put Dean, and his predecessor McAuliffe, as the face of the Party? The really sad part is, after every big loss they say it was because they failed to get the message out to the people. It's like my wife who thinks I don't agree with her because I don't get what she's saying, The idea I might understand, and just think she is wrong is totally alien to her. She can't understand my motives and has to predict behavior. Good luck with that formula for success.

Palin wasn't chosen to try to scoop up disillusioned members from the cult of Shrillery, It was to shore up far Right support and take Big Mo' from Obama. This whole McSame movement isn't going to work, it will probably backfire. The fightin' Chipmunk is going to do well in the debates and Palin might be the kick in the nuts to finish him. Want to bet if Obama does lose, his staff will be right back in 2012?

[alexamenos]

^^^ straight up....

You know I was trying to make this point to a blue dog dem the other day -- I was telling him that he shouldn't be so quick to dismiss how much Palin will appeal to "flyover country" because the folks from flyover country pretty consistently determine elections. I made the point that it's no coincidence that the last 3 dem presidents included a charmer from rural Texas, a Georgian Peanut farmer, and a Bubba from Hope Arkansas.

The dude needed a fainting couch when I made this point -- he couldn't understand how I could compare a podunk mayor like Palin to Bill Clinton who graduated from Yale and went to Oxford....

tone deaf is right.

--------------

here 'tis, a real classic in Liberal post-mortem analysis from the '04 election --

The Unteachable Ignorance of the Red States

According to Ms. Smiley, the 58 million people who voted for Bush are stupid, ignorant and evil, in stark contrast to the 55 million who voted for Kerry. How's that for some seriously manichean analysis????

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by alexamenos

The dude needed a fainting couch when I made this point -- he couldn't understand how I could compare a podunk mayor like Palin to Bill Clinton who graduated from Yale and went to Oxford....

Heelarious...

[dude1394]

Ruh-oh.. That's not a convention bounce, that's an ass-kicking commencing. Whooping up on leadership and killing on independents. I think that Mac08's speech may have been a lot better than the nattering-na-bobs-of-negativism thought.

[dude1394]

More ruh-oh...

RALEIGH (WTVD) -- In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD.

Wow...that Mac08 is kicking it.

[dude1394]

Here's one poll that theOne is still kicking however. Hell that's enough reason to me to vote for Mac08 right there.

World wants Obama as president: poll

Posted 10 hours 48 minutes ago

US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama may be struggling to nudge ahead of his Republican rival in polls at home, but people across the world want him in the White House, a BBC poll said.

All 22 countries covered in the poll would prefer to see Senator Obama elected US president ahead of Republican John McCain.

In 17 of the 22 nations, people expect relations between the US and the rest of the world to improve if Senator Obama wins.

[rabbitproof]

I think McCain's bounce is over. That number should come down tomorrow and McCain will settle into a nice 2-3 point edge going into the weekend.

[Flacolaco]

I don't trust any polls, either way they stand. It's all some devious plot to shape public opinion in one way or the other. They only need to be right at the end of the election period so they can have some credibility.

[dude1394]

ruh-oh.. So let's recap the original post that started this one.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...college_update

Election 2008: Electoral College Update
Electoral College: Obama 193 McCain 189

Three new state polls out today move John McCain a bit closer to Barack Obama in the Electoral College. New Mexico moves from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up,” North Dakota moves from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican” and Alaska moves from “Likely Republican” to “Safely Republican.” With these changes, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator show Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes and McCain ahead in states with 189 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 259, McCain 247.

Yesterday, new polling moved Montana from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports' Balance of Power Calculator. Yesterday, new polls in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia had no impact on the Electoral College projections.

Currently, states with 124 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Four states with a total of 32 votes -- Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

So let's recap the post that started this thread.

The Quinnipiac polls had Obama besting McCain 52-40 percent in Pennsylvania, 48-42 percent in Ohio, and 47-43 in Florida. All three states are crucial building blocks to an election triumph for either candidate in November.

Pennsylvania is still theOnes - +2% down from +12.
Ohio - Well that one's gone. Mac08 51-44%
Fla - 48% tied down from theOne +4..

[92bDad]

This is all fascinating stuff...but they don't amount to anything.

Last time I watched someone winning on paper...they lost in the real deal.

See Cowboys versus Giants last year...or for that matter Packers versus Giants and ultimately Patriots versus Giants.

At the end of the day, McCain/Palin are going to have come out on top in the one poll that matters...the actual vote in November.

I have to keep myself humble and respectful that the Obama camp is a formidable opponent and that this thing is far from over. Again the polls are interesting and something to chat about over the watercooler...but at the end of the day, they are nothing more. Both sides will get some spikes and drops in the polls...it's all about how they finish this race!!!

Again for what it's worth...in my unbiased poll, McCain/Palin are up 3 votes to 0 and I know that these three votes will not be changed.

By the way, on another board...a local youth soccer board...McCain/Palin is up 101 votes to Obama/Biden's 29 votes. That's nearly a 4-1 advantage amongst Soccer Mom's/Dad's.

No these are not scientific...but it's nice to see that what I hear from the media is a little different from some people that I interact with.

[dalmations202]

Dude1394 this one is for you----

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdDjOHYyCSg

[aquaadverse]

Originally Posted by 92bDad

This is all fascinating stuff...but they don't amount to anything.

Last time I watched someone winning on paper...they lost in the real deal.

See Cowboys versus Giants last year...or for that matter Packers versus Giants and ultimately Patriots versus Giants.
.

The thing about polls that is fascinating, maybe just to me, is not how accurate they might be, it's that modern politicians actually make them the tool for measuring how effective current strategy is at manipulating reality. Kind of weird, it seemed the main polls were wildly wrong right up to the 2002 elections, now it seems like everything is always within the percentage of error and a tie. Got to wonder if the roles of shark and pilot fish have flipped.

[wmbwinn]

http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html

This electoral college map still shows Obama up by eight points but it may not be accurate anymore.

Florida is a toss up and Politico had it credited to McCain. No way can McCain win if he loses Florida...
New Mexico had a huge flip (about ten percentage points over Palin) and is now McCain.
New Hampshire is a toss up now although Politico gave it to Obama earlier.
Ohio was given to McCain by Politico. Rasmussen now shows McCain to be a clear leader by 7 points.
Pennsylvania is credited to Obama but it is becoming a toss up. No way can Obama win if he loses Florida and Pennsylvania.
Virginia is close, two percentage points towards McCain. Just as close as Pennsylvania...
Nevada is close, 3 points towards McCain.


Anyway, that list above is the real list of close votes. Those are the ones I would call the Swing states as opposed to the list of Politico.



See Rasmussen:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/scor...al_status_bars

[chumdawg]

What about Michigan?

Those are all toss-ups, yes. But the safest Obama bet is probably New Mexico, among them. There is not much reason to believe that in the last five days it swung to McCain.

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

What about Michigan?

Those are all toss-ups, yes. But the safest Obama bet is probably New Mexico, among them. There is not much reason to believe that in the last five days it swung to McCain.

Michigan is 5 percentage points towards Obama. If we count states within 5 percentage points, then there are two to three times more swing states. I would call Michigan Obama's unless there is a big change.

New Mexico is shocking. It literally flipped ten percentage points over the Palin attacks. We'll see what happens over time.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

Michigan is 5 percentage points towards Obama. If we count states within 5 percentage points, then there are two to three times more swing states. I would call Michigan Obama's unless there is a big change.

New Mexico is shocking. It literally flipped ten percentage points over the Palin attacks. We'll see what happens over time.

Why wouldn't we count states within five points in the polls? For that matter, what is the margin of error in these polls?

My guess is that NM looks like more fertile ground for Obama than it does for McCain, due to the large influx of Mexican immigrants. Not sure that will be reflected in the polls, though.

[Usually Lurkin]

Janett ??
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Janett???
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Janett??
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.


http://www.electoral-vote.com/






oh.

[92bDad]

Now I don't have the links or the reference, as I caught this in passing on some news program recently.

But they were talking about "D" stronghold California. California was listed as an Obama state by double digit margins...but that it had obtained a bump for McCain to the point of nearly a 5 point margin.

They then talked about Reagan being the last Republican to carry California and that McCain had put himself into a fighting shot of turning the tide on California.

I don't believe this will actually happen, but it would be interesting to see McCain turning California into a 'Swing' state, causing Obama to actually spend money and campaign in California.

As Liberal as California is, there is a huge Conservative base that would love to be an influence in turning this election...I for one, would love to see this Cinderella story become reality!!!

[dude1394]

ruh oh...The Messiah is so bad that he's taking congress with him.

[dude1394]

Must have been that atrocious Sarah interview.

McCain now attracts 48% of the vote while Obama earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 46%. Yesterday, the candidates were tied (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

It is unusual to find a three-point jump in one day on the tracking poll. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s gain for McCain comes partly from a good night of polling last night and partly from the fact that a good night for Obama on Monday is no longer part of the sample.

[mary]

Originally Posted by mary

This isn't a poll, but I'd like to list it here for tracking purposes.

Sportsbook

Obama (-180)
McCain (+140)

http://www.sportsbook.com/livesports...rtsname=exotic

Further signs that McCain is making ground

Sportsbook

Obam (-160)
McCain (+120)

[wmbwinn]

Friday, September 12, 2008 Email to a Friend
Washington is the latest state to show a strong western surge for John McCain since he added Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Barack Obama still ahead, but barely. It’s Obama 49%, McCain 47%. A month ago, Obama was up by twelve percentage points. Recent polls have shown McCain gains in Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota.

Rasmussen Polls

Looks like Washington State just joined the ranks of the closely contested "swing states" with the Palin influence...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

Friday, September 12, 2008 Email to a Friend
Washington is the latest state to show a strong western surge for John McCain since he added Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Barack Obama still ahead, but barely. It’s Obama 49%, McCain 47%. A month ago, Obama was up by twelve percentage points. Recent polls have shown McCain gains in Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota.

Rasmussen Polls

Looks like Washington State just joined the ranks of the closely contested "swing states" with the Palin influence...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election

They are the closest state to washington, the lure of palin cannot be resisted.

[wmbwinn]

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Alabama 35% 55% Sep 03 Sep 09 Capital Research
Colorado 49% 46% Sep 09 Sep 10 Insider Advantage
Florida 42% 50% Sep 09 Sep 10 Insider Advantage
Florida 43% 50% Sep 05 Sep 09 Quinnipiac U.
Georgia 38% 56% Sep 10 Sep 10 Insider Advantage
Idaho 29% 68% Sep 09 Sep 09 Rasmussen
Maine 52% 38% Sep 08 Sep 10 Research 2000
Michigan 44% 45% Sep 09 Sep 10 Insider Advantage
Michigan 51% 46% Sep 10 Sep 10 Rasmussen
Mississippi 39% 52% Sep 08 Sep 10 Research 2000
North Carolina 38% 55% Sep 08 Sep 10 Research 2000
Nevada 45% 46% Sep 09 Sep 10 Insider Advantage
Ohio 47% 48% Sep 09 Sep 10 Insider Advantage
Ohio 49% 44% Sep 05 Sep 09 Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania 48% 45% Sep 05 Sep 09 Quinnipiac U.
West Virginia 39% 44% Sep 05 Sep 08 Mark Blankenship
Wyoming 39% 58% Sep 10 Sep 10 Rasmussen


http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Thanks, UL for the link above.

Perhaps Chum was correct when he said Michigan was close and a "swing vote" state. One poll has McCain leading in Michigan which is hard to believe. Rasmussen shows Obama with a decent lead there. Rasmussen's numbers are always based on three day averages. The other poll might reflect the response to the recent Palin interview?? Don't know why they are so different.

The two polls above show Florida squarely McCain land. Rasmussen has Florida tied...
But, the Quinnipiac U. poll was a 4 day poll...

The above polls show Ohio and Nevada basically tied. Those are must win states for McCain to have a chance. So is Florida.

I think that there has been a recent spike in votes towards McCain. But, Rasmussen is always a few days behind showing it because of the their three day rolling average rule.

[Mavdog]

you realize these polls are done via telephone calls via landlines, right?

imo their accuracy is declining at a rate commensurate with the decrease in landline connections to homes....

[Murphy3]

Why are you questioning the accuracy of polls? They are what they are.. a polling of people.. when reaching a certain threshhold, they are an accurate indicator within 3-4 points...

Obviously, within 3-4 points one direction or another is the key point.. but that's how they've always been. I can't imagine that landlines are declining at a rate that would impact the accuracy of these polls.. that's an odd point.

[chumdawg]

Murph, I'm guessing you weren't paying attention this past spring, when the polls were in some cases flat-out wrong.

And if you don't think that folks are abandoning landlines in large numbers...well...don't know what to tell you, good nun. There's hardly any reason to have one anymore.

[Mavdog]

imo the methodology of polling must adapt to the change in people's lifestyle.

for instance, in the past EVERYONE had a landline phone. now, the number of homes with a landline connection have been declining. that's a fact, look at both attt and verizon figures.

so who doesn't have landlines and rely on cells totally? yep, its the youngun's...

the polling orgs need to find a way to develop a representitive sample that doesn't rely on calls to people via landlines. it will become less and less reflective of the whole.

it's especially true with young folk in their early 20's.

[mary]

That's not a bad point.

[Murphy3]

Not really.

What is it... probably 10-15 percent of people that might not have landlines...just a guess. How many of those people are young? I'm sure that it's probably highest among the extreme young since cell phones are what most grew up on. So, let's go with the 18 year old crowd to 26 or so..

So the people that don't usually vote.. the MTV crowd... so they're going with landlines?... Ah, ok. So I can see how it would have a major impact on polls. Perhaps they're just not calling enough people on landlines that aren't planning on voting. That would probably make the polls more accurate.

Maybe after they poll more people that traditionally don't vote...perhaps they could poll the dead. They don't use landlines either. Maybe after they poll the disenfranchised youth and the dead, maybe then they could poll the French...

Anyone else?

[wmbwinn]

I will concede that mobile phones are in higher use among younger persons. If younger persons actually voted, then the Dems would never lose...

But, the youth movement that was "so for" Gore and Kerry and now Obama never show up to vote.

So, the polls may be close after all.

[mary]

Here's an article about the declining use of landlines. Murph, you nailed the percentage - about 15 percent.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...ll-phones.html

[Murphy3]

And the young ones are by far the most likely to go wireless... so once again, we're just not polling enough of those people that aren't going to vote..

On a side note..anyone have 'naked dsl'? I wish to hell I did.

[Mavdog]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Not really.

What is it... probably 10-15 percent of people that might not have landlines...just a guess. How many of those people are young? I'm sure that it's probably highest among the extreme young since cell phones are what most grew up on. So, let's go with the 18 year old crowd to 26 or so..

So the people that don't usually vote.. the MTV crowd... so they're going with landlines?... Ah, ok. So I can see how it would have a major impact on polls. Perhaps they're just not calling enough people on landlines that aren't planning on voting. That would probably make the polls more accurate.

Maybe after they poll more people that traditionally don't vote...perhaps they could poll the dead. They don't use landlines either. Maybe after they poll the disenfranchised youth and the dead, maybe then they could poll the French...

Anyone else?

the mccain campaign is hoping that your cynical view of the youth turn out to vote this november proves correct.

if you and they are wrong, the mccain/palin ticket is in deep dodo...and the obama/biden camppaign is working to make sure the voters get there this november.

do you feel lucky?

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by Mavdog

the mccain campaign is hoping that your cynical view of the youth turn out to vote this november proves correct.

if you and they are wrong, the mccain/palin ticket is in deep dodo...and the obama/biden camppaign is working to make sure the voters get there this november.

do you feel lucky?

Gore and Kerry did all they could do as well to get the youth out. They just turn out in pathetically low percentages.

If they show, they could throw the election.

Both parties are very aggressive with the "get out the vote" efforts.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

Gore and Kerry did all they could do as well to get the youth out. They just turn out in pathetically low percentages.

If they show, they could throw the election.

Both parties are very aggressive with the "get out the vote" efforts.

Gore and Kerry didn't have quite the cache that Obama has. As you know, youths are very heavily Democratic these days.

The point is that this demographic is not represented in the polls, and it could well make a difference.

[Mavdog]

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

Gore and Kerry did all they could do as well to get the youth out. They just turn out in pathetically low percentages.

If they show, they could throw the election.

Both parties are very aggressive with the "get out the vote" efforts.

"throw the election"???

you mean determine the election I hope.

people exercising their legal right to vote don't "throw" an election....that's a negative phrase

[rabbitproof]

Originally Posted by rabbitproof

I think McCain's bounce is over. That number should come down tomorrow and McCain will settle into a nice 2-3 point edge going into the weekend.

KOOL AID MAN: OH YEAH!!

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by wmbwinn
Gore and Kerry did all they could do as well to get the youth out. They just turn out in pathetically low percentages.

If they show, they could throw the election.

Both parties are very aggressive with the "get out the vote" efforts.

Originally Posted by Mavdog

"throw the election"???

you mean determine the election I hope.

people exercising their legal right to vote don't "throw" an election....that's a negative phrase

You are right. That was the wrong word. determine is an accurate word.

I'd love to see more people get involved. But, I'm not betting on 18-30 year olds because they historically never show up as compared to other demographics.