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Old 11-22-2009, 04:14 PM   #1
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Default Is It Possible The Mavs Brain Trust Got The Off-Season Right?

Think back to the end of Summer. The Mavs ended up, it appeared, to be settling for nothing any of us really wanted. And taking players the rest of the NBA didn't much want either. It was the summer when the competition got much better and we didn't.

Lets start with the conventional wisdom

Drew Gooden. Reputation: Inconsistant. Hardly a consolation prize for the real center who stiffed us.

Shawn Marion: Nice pickup at 6.6 mil, but is he really a match for the Lakers getting Artest (5m) and the Spurs getting Richard Jefferson (15m)? Some asked "is that the best we can get for the Stack Chip?" Plus there was all that mess at the end of the trade where we had to take Buckner and that other throw in...

Kris Humphries: The throw in. appeared at trade time, to be one more contract to dispose of.

Rodrigue Beaubois. Another European project...what are the odds of that working?

Quinton Ross: Nice to have the Kimball-SMU connection, but can he really make a difference?

Tim Thomas: hit some 3's for PHX. Best known for his famous kiss-defense on Dirk, resulting in that 50 point playoff beatdown.


Clearly RoBeau has been the biggest surprise, but Gooden and Humphries have played much better than expected. Marion gets to the rim at will, would be great if he's quit missing layups. Ross hasn't been any worse than Buckner or Wright. Everyone seems to hustle on defense.

But in a case where the sum is greater than its parts, the new additions, along with inspired play from Dirk and Damp, have the Mavs off to their 2nd best start ever. Plus they are winning while missing 1, 2 and even 3 starters. Winning 5 or 6 games when they shoot under 44%

What everybody new and everyone who stayed have in common is they seem to be buying what RC is selling. These are clearly the kinds of players he wants. He saw in them what the conventional wisdom missed. Its a kind of no name grittiness that his teams had in Indiana.

There are still many hurdles to come. What happens when we get healthy? What happens when Tony Parker and Manu, and Pau and CP and TMac and everybody else else gets healthy?. But if I'd predicted the Mavs would be 10-3 with no Josh, no Tim Thomas, 1/2 of the games with no Marion, you'd have thought me crazy.

As a once great coach said something like, "if you want me to cook a good dish, you gotta let me shop for the groceries."

So can you smell what RC is cooking? Does he have the right stuff?
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Old 11-22-2009, 04:33 PM   #2
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The jury is still out, but this team seems like it has nowhere to go but up (get healthier, build even more chemistry, get more experience for RoddyB...)
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Old 11-22-2009, 04:33 PM   #3
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Chemistry is the biggest thing, that plus roster depth, last year, our top wing was Jet and Wright? This year we have Marion, Jet and Ross thus far and hopefully JHo. I think a huge add was Gooden over Bass/Gortat. Bass was great, I loved his effort every night, but he was overmatched for his skills a lot of nights, plus our HOF player plays the same position. Gooden gives us the low post offensive threat, where, you have to at least guard him when he's in the paint, creating space for Dirk to work. The great thing about Marion and Gooden is that they are demonstrative, they fit in perfectly with everyone on the club, which leads to others willing to put in that extra effort to get the win, it's a team win. Even the older guys like Kidd and Dirk throws it into the next gear when you see Marion or Hump throwing themselves into the fray to get that extra tip. Chemistry is contagious and we got it. These guys started from day 1. We will see bumps offensively, like now, but our defense will keep us in games.
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Old 11-22-2009, 06:00 PM   #4
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I believe that the Mavs baintrust probably did a pretty nice to damn good job. At the very least.. pretty nice. It's looking closer to "damn good", but we'll ahve to wait and see.
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Old 11-22-2009, 06:12 PM   #5
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Yeah...the off season acquisitions have already far exceeded my expectations.
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Old 11-22-2009, 07:14 PM   #6
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I don't know why anyone wouldn't have been excited about our off season. Adding Shawn Marion for nothing was a huge move. It was absolutely on par with adding Artest and Jefferson.

Having said that, the off-season is defintely shaping up to be better than expected for two specific reason: Roddy and Humphries. They've exceeded all expectation by a long shot already.
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Old 11-22-2009, 07:36 PM   #7
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It's really too early for this thread. We'll have to judge the offseason by more than 15 games.

I don't think conventional wisdom was that Marion wouldn't be a valuable addition. Pessimistic wisdom, maybe, but not conventional. On the other hand, conventional wisdom was that we could only hope that Gooden would do more than show inconsistent flashes of giving us exactly what we need on the offensive end. He's definitely given us those flashes. Lets wait for enough time to tell whether it will be consistent.

The Mavs scrubs have been holding down the fort through the injuries in the starting lineup, but if we're going to heap praise on the Mavs brain trust for picking up some bench players that will be able to serve when the starters are injured, shouldn't we pan them for trading for (and for not trading away) some injury-prone starters?
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Old 11-22-2009, 08:16 PM   #8
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I think they did a very nice job in the offseason, but I agree with UL. It's too early to give a definitive grade.

The three biggest needs were: 1) an upgrade at SG, 2) a quality backup center, and 3) a point guard who could defend quick big PGs. At some level, they did all three. I'd still prefer to move Josh Howard for a real SG at some point, and I'd still prefer to have a bit more of a shotblocker than Gooden as the backup C, but if everybody gets healthy this team might actually have a shot at winning the West. I still think that San Antonio is going to be really tough when/if they get everybody healthy, LA is going to be really tough as long as Kobe, Gasol, and Odom are healthy, and Denver is going to be a challenge as well. The difference is, now I think they have a shot. At the beginning of the season, I honestly didn't.
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Old 11-22-2009, 08:26 PM   #9
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Is it possible?

Yes
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Old 11-22-2009, 08:32 PM   #10
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I think that Shawn was an almost perfect fit for this team (if we were not moving anyone). He fits in seamlessly. But as KG says unless Drew can show that he can play inside defense off the ball, then we'll have some issues..

But the ability to defend AT the perimeter instead of always AT the rim should make a difference.
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Old 11-22-2009, 08:36 PM   #11
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[QUOTE=dude1394;1042557]I think that Shawn was an almost perfect fit for this team (if we were not moving anyone). He fits in seamlessly. But as KG says unless Drew can show that he can play inside defense off the ball, then we'll have some issues..

But the ability to defend AT the perimeter instead of always AT the rim should make a difference.[/QUOTED]

Defend the guy from getting at the rim, don't allow them to get to the rim.
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Old 11-22-2009, 08:38 PM   #12
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I was having a discussion with my bud' about shawns shooting. He was talking about how he's been doing so badly (and it does seem like he misses a lot) but when you look he's at 48%, 40th in the NBA. I expect that will go even higher as he gets more comfortable. Having a 3 that is making 50% plus of his shots while playing stellar D and rebounding...well...that's pretty nice.
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Old 11-22-2009, 08:54 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kg_veteran View Post
I think they did a very nice job in the offseason, but I agree with UL. It's too early to give a definitive grade.

The three biggest needs were: 1) an upgrade at SG, 2) a quality backup center, and 3) a point guard who could defend quick big PGs. At some level, they did all three. I'd still prefer to move Josh Howard for a real SG at some point, and I'd still prefer to have a bit more of a shotblocker than Gooden as the backup C, but if everybody gets healthy this team might actually have a shot at winning the West. I still think that San Antonio is going to be really tough when/if they get everybody healthy, LA is going to be really tough as long as Kobe, Gasol, and Odom are healthy, and Denver is going to be a challenge as well. The difference is, now I think they have a shot. At the beginning of the season, I honestly didn't.
What a panty ass. Thank God the team wasn't Nervous Nancy like you.

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Old 11-22-2009, 09:43 PM   #14
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What a panty ass. Thank God the team wasn't Nervous Nancy like you.
Wow, that's a convincing argument.
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Old 11-22-2009, 10:05 PM   #15
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I don't know why anyone wouldn't have been excited about our off season. Adding Shawn Marion for nothing was a huge move. It was absolutely on par with adding Artest and Jefferson.

Having said that, the off-season is defintely shaping up to be better than expected for two specific reason: Roddy and Humphries. They've exceeded all expectation by a long shot already.
This. It still boggles my mind how many people, Dallas fans and national media, just completely missed the boat on the Marion S&T being a good move. Everything else could have been no better than lateral - and between Hump and Boobie, and even Gooden's play over this recent stretch, there's definitely some evidence that the remaining player acquisitions may turn out to have been better than lateral moves - and there still would have been ample reason to feel that the team had improved over the summer.
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Old 11-22-2009, 10:07 PM   #16
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I knew Roddy B was going to be great I just forgot to post that prediction.....
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Old 11-22-2009, 10:20 PM   #17
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Honestly, out of everyone we acquired, Marion has been the most disappointing. Not the worst, but considering our expectations, I would say Marion has underachieved. He doesn't get as many easy buckets as I was led to believe, he's not an automatic score on fast breaks (although I would argue that the blame comes more on the passer, usually Kidd), and he sucks at dribbling and driving. He's been good, don't get me wrong, but he's not quite the highflying, constantly around the basket player I expected. At least, not as much as I expected.

Everyone else on the team has overachieved, just about. No one thought Gooden would be doing this, not playing this scrappy. Roddy? For a guy most people wanted in the D-leagues, he's overachieved exponentially. Ross hasn't underachieved. Humphries has certianly overachieved. Not enough time to tell with TT.
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Old 11-22-2009, 10:31 PM   #18
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Marion has been a major reason why the Mavs are good defensively. I don't believe he has been disappointing so far. Sure, he misses a lot of damn bunnies. He is Elmer Fudd in that regard. But his ability to guard the wings has allowed the Mavs to be extremely versatile.

I knew Marion would be an upgrade over what the Mavs had. You don't add that kind of talent (and not losing any talent) and be worse off. I am surprised though how good they really are at the moment. It might be fool's gold, but they haven't been healthy at all and are competing quite nicely.
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Old 11-22-2009, 10:37 PM   #19
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I haven't been able to watch more than maybe a quarter's worth of basketball this season but based off almost the first stretch of the season, looking at the numbers...you have to be pleased with what you're seeing.

The big thing I'll wanna see (when I f'n get a chance to watch game lol) is how everything meshes when all the parts are in motion. Can Josh get healthy and when he does, how long is it going to take for him to get in the rhythm of what is going on. Is he going to bring that added dimension or is he going to be a problem? I'm pretty sure it's going to take him time to adjust, that's not an issue for me...the issue is will he play in the system that seems to be working now. Based on the fact it's essentially a contract year, I think/hope he'll mesh in.

It's definitely in a wait and see mode, but right now you have to be pretty optimistic on the outlook. You have more positives on the horizon, getting healthy, natural progression and more time to mesh, versus the negatives.

If Dirk is Dirk, and you've got a supporting cast that is holding the fort until the bigger players come back...things have to be looking up.
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Old 11-22-2009, 11:10 PM   #20
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To underscore the point of the OP (with some sarcasm to underscore my own hesitation):

Tim Thomas is leading the team (and the league) in free throw percentage. No one expected that!
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Old 11-22-2009, 11:55 PM   #21
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Honestly, out of everyone we acquired, Marion has been the most disappointing. Not the worst, but considering our expectations, I would say Marion has underachieved. He doesn't get as many easy buckets as I was led to believe, he's not an automatic score on fast breaks (although I would argue that the blame comes more on the passer, usually Kidd), and he sucks at dribbling and driving. He's been good, don't get me wrong, but he's not quite the highflying, constantly around the basket player I expected. At least, not as much as I expected.

Everyone else on the team has overachieved, just about. No one thought Gooden would be doing this, not playing this scrappy. Roddy? For a guy most people wanted in the D-leagues, he's overachieved exponentially. Ross hasn't underachieved. Humphries has certianly overachieved. Not enough time to tell with TT.
As frustrating as it is when he misses the easy buckets, I really think Marion's offensive role will shine once JHo is back.
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Old 11-22-2009, 11:57 PM   #22
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They got it half-way right. Marion was definitely a great pickup for the Stack chip. I won't be happy until we trade for a versatile shooting guard. Until then, I think we're still a second-tier team no matter how good our record is. I'm glad they've played well so far, but I just don't like the way this team is put together. We've got an overload of forwards, but still no real shooters in our starting lineup outside of Dirk. The bench defense, with the exception of Ross, is a liability. You can blame that at least partially on not having a real center when Damp is out of the game.
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Old 11-23-2009, 12:02 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tcat075 View Post
Honestly, out of everyone we acquired, Marion has been the most disappointing. Not the worst, but considering our expectations, I would say Marion has underachieved. He doesn't get as many easy buckets as I was led to believe, he's not an automatic score on fast breaks (although I would argue that the blame comes more on the passer, usually Kidd), and he sucks at dribbling and driving. He's been good, don't get me wrong, but he's not quite the highflying, constantly around the basket player I expected. At least, not as much as I expected..
Wow...I just cannot agree with this at all. The only thing the guy has underachieved imo with is staying healthy.

The dude hasn't attempted a 3. He's chipping in 13 ppg, 6.5 rpg and has very few plays run for him.

Take a look at his hotspots...they are closer in than tim duncan and almost anyone else I've ever seen. 98 of his 126 shots are directly in the paint.

I "might" agree with the high-flying stuff, but so what, he's DEFINITELY the constantly around the basket player...period.
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Old 11-23-2009, 05:07 AM   #24
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Old 11-23-2009, 05:11 AM   #25
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Basketball is still about TEAM and as someone mentioned somewhere, sometimes the whole is greater than the sum of the individual parts. That might be what we have going on here where winning as a team, player feeding off player, and be damned with personal glory, can produce a product that exceeds expectations. That produces career years in several players and who knows, maybe a championship.
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Old 11-23-2009, 09:42 AM   #26
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Have people forgot the Lakers game already?....Marion's defense on Kobe was one of the reason's the Mavs won, I wouldn't judge Shawn Marion off of 13 games just yet....in the Mavs vs Rocket's game Marion was playing off of Josh making it look easy, I think it's obvious that Marion was never 100% at the start on the season so let's just wait untill he's atleast 100% to judge him as a player, if anything the Mavs where smart to get Marion because now Josh doesn't have to wast all his energy trying to stop Kobe, Lebron, Melo and Wade from going off on Dallas now Marion can do it.
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Old 11-23-2009, 09:51 AM   #27
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The thing about Gooden is honestly he wouldn't of been an improvement for a huge majority of teams out there. He's a fit here because we've had no low post scoring what so ever and he brings just enough for us.
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Old 11-23-2009, 09:59 AM   #28
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Wow...I just cannot agree with this at all. The only thing the guy has underachieved imo with is staying healthy.

The dude hasn't attempted a 3. He's chipping in 13 ppg, 6.5 rpg and has very few plays run for him.

Take a look at his hotspots...they are closer in than tim duncan and almost anyone else I've ever seen. 98 of his 126 shots are directly in the paint.

I "might" agree with the high-flying stuff, but so what, he's DEFINITELY the constantly around the basket player...period.
I figured someone would disagree with me, I was really just waiting for it to happen.

Here's my reasoning: I realize Marion is shooting 50%, but it seems like, as you said, pretty much every shot he's taken is immediately in and around the basket. That's great, don't get me wrong. So yes, he is often around the basket. I realize I said that, and I was wrong there. I wrote it, but even when I wrote it, I kinda knew it wasn't true. Its not exactly what I was trying to say.

But for someone who is, as we've determined, constantly around the basket, it sure seems like Marion misses a lot of chippies. Not standing under the basket wide open, but little turnaround hooks, or push shots, it just seems like he misses a lot of those. I think a lot of what I see isn't stuff that can be supported by stats, but rather visual evidence. This year, he's shooting 55% around the paint, but it seems like he could easily be shooting 60% if he made shots that are very make-able.

And, actually, looking around a little bit more, I did find stats. Using the hotspot chart, we see that Marion is shooting 55% this year in the paint. Already brought that stat up. But 08-09 season, Marion shot 58.6% in the paint. That's an extra 16 shots made, if Marion takes as many shots in the paint this year as he did last year. Or what about the 07-08 season? 63% shooting in the paint! That's 35 more made shots if Marion takes the same number of shots as he did the 07-08 season.

And, with the above stats, you have to consider that Marion will probably take more this year, as long as he's not bothered with injuries the entire year, because he'll be better integrated into the offense, not changing teams at the trading deadline and everything.

What I'm trying to say is that Marion is fully capable of shooting 63-65% percent in the paint, and he's just not doing it. And, though it may be unfair expectations, I kinda did expect him to shooting 63-65% in the paint. So for me, he's underachieving in that aspect.

The other big thing he's disappointed me in is fast break points. He's been good, but I've seen more fast breaks than I expected end poorly. When JET is the ball handler on the fast break, then its been mostly good. There have been several JET-Marion alley oop connections this year. In fact, nearly every one has been a pass from JET. For Kidd, I'm not sure I've seen him throw a single lob to Marion...at least not one that connected. This may be on Kidd, but I thought Marion was going to be a better fast break option. When he does get the ball on the fast break (and I'll argue the only time he should get it is when he doens't have to take a dribble, but still) and is forced to dribble bad things happen.

The lob, non-fast break, seems to be something I expected as well, and those and few and far between. There hasn't been any backdoor alley oops, or pick and roll slams. Really, the Lakers game was how I expected Marion to play, maybe not every game, but a lot of his games. Easy lobs when he man gave him too much room, pick and roll scoring. But there hasn't been a lot of that this year.

Maybe its my own expectations that he's disappointed, because I expected a guy who was going to get highlight dunks pretty consistantly, and that's not who he is anymore. And I can't argue that he's been very solid both defensively and on the boards. But I think he has potential to have a much better offensive season that the one he's been having, mainly by hitting the easy shots.
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Old 11-23-2009, 11:34 AM   #29
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To underscore the point of the OP (with some sarcasm to underscore my own hesitation):

Tim Thomas is leading the team (and the league) in free throw percentage. No one expected that!
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Old 11-23-2009, 11:42 AM   #30
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F donnie...
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Old 11-23-2009, 12:42 PM   #31
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F donnie...
whaaaa?
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Old 11-23-2009, 12:46 PM   #32
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I look at this line up (when healthy) and think its the most well rounded Mavs team we've had in 20 years...

Its way too early to pass judgment on if it WILL work...but it is not too early to judge the quality of the rationale of the moves made. I give the rationale a solid "A".
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Old 11-23-2009, 12:58 PM   #33
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I look at this line up (when healthy) and think its the most well rounded Mavs team we've had in 20 years...

Its way too early to pass judgment on if it WILL work...but it is not too early to judge the quality of the rationale of the moves made. I give the rationale a solid "A".
Then I'd have to say that trading Josh Howard for a contributor would have rated us an "A+++".
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Old 11-23-2009, 01:08 PM   #34
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I think it is two-fold:
1. Your expectations that he should shoot 65%. If he has to do that to "meet expectations" then yes they were too high.
2. Fast break points. Marion is going to fast break only as much as the mavs fast break and in the last 2 weeks or so that has been pretty abysmal actually. They've been walking it up for the most part. Jkiddos' job, not shawns.

I think it is okay to have expectations that are too high, but what you are holding out there is an actual all-star, close to mega-star player, not 3-4th option imo.

That is why I say his acquisition was perfect. He's able to contribute greatly as a 3-4th option, not many (R.Jefferson comes to mind) can do it.
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Old 11-23-2009, 01:09 PM   #35
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WOW!

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With thanksgiving being this week this is one of the things I am thankful for....
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You guys (and EL) bring it consistently.
Can I get in on this gloriously awkward group hug?
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Old 11-23-2009, 01:10 PM   #36
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I think the top 5 players that you could put on the floor at any moment are as good as any team mentioned, which was largely due to bringing Marion. I also think we have a strong enough bench to stay competitive for those top 5 to do thier work.

But, beating LA in game 2 of the season isn't the same as beating them in a playoff game.

I also question the clutch ability of our team. Josh isn't and probably never will be a clutch player. Dirk is, JET is, Kidd is; I'm not sure about Marion. I'm not sure about Gooden. That's really the key question. When playoffs come and you're in an elimination game in the 4th quarter, do you have a glaring weakness. Do you have players that make mistakes. . . .

I'm still not at all comfortable with not having another servicable center.
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Old 11-23-2009, 01:39 PM   #37
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I think it is two-fold:
1. Your expectations that he should shoot 65%. If he has to do that to "meet expectations" then yes they were too high.
2. Fast break points. Marion is going to fast break only as much as the mavs fast break and in the last 2 weeks or so that has been pretty abysmal actually. They've been walking it up for the most part. Jkiddos' job, not shawns.

I think it is okay to have expectations that are too high, but what you are holding out there is an actual all-star, close to mega-star player, not 3-4th option imo.

That is why I say his acquisition was perfect. He's able to contribute greatly as a 3-4th option, not many (R.Jefferson comes to mind) can do it.
1. Oh, don't get me wrong, my expectations are probably way too much. Maybe I didn't consciously think "Oh, I expect Marion to make the All-Star team", because logically that was unlikely, but I guess I did expect, to some degree, that his performance was on an All-Star level. And those don't go together, even though I wanted them to.

2. Here, while I agree fast breaks have been spotty, its not the stats I'm looking for. Its the specific fast breaks which I can remember in my mind where Kidd is streaking down the floor, and Marion is streaking down the floor, and there is really only one guard in their way. But instead of scoring, something happens. Kidd gives it Marion at the three point line, and Marion loses the handle, or Kidd pulls up, or Kidd goes all the way to the basket then tries to through it back to Marion at the last second and get it to Matrix and gets it stolen. Something happens. And the entire time, I'm screaming for JKidd just to throw the ball up in the air and let Marion go get it.

As I've been saying, I think Kidd deserves an equal amount of blame for not handling Marion right. But the fast breaks in general, the few that we've had, they just don't seem right.
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Old 11-23-2009, 01:42 PM   #38
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I think the top 5 players that you could put on the floor at any moment are as good as any team mentioned, which was largely due to bringing Marion. I also think we have a strong enough bench to stay competitive for those top 5 to do thier work.

But, beating LA in game 2 of the season isn't the same as beating them in a playoff game.

I also question the clutch ability of our team. Josh isn't and probably never will be a clutch player. Dirk is, JET is, Kidd is; I'm not sure about Marion. I'm not sure about Gooden. That's really the key question. When playoffs come and you're in an elimination game in the 4th quarter, do you have a glaring weakness. Do you have players that make mistakes. . . .

I'm still not at all comfortable with not having another servicable center.
JET sure didn't show up last year come playoff time...

However, he is very regular season clutch. And, hopefully the addition of Marion and of Gooden will either allow JET to get more open or make them pay if they do choose to double.
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Old 11-23-2009, 01:48 PM   #39
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Yep, the expectations by many concerning Marion are off target coming into the season. He is not a #2 option. He's not even close to being that type of player. His offense is generated off of cuts, breaks, and offensive rebounds. That is not a #2 option. But if you have a guy that scores off of cuts, breaks, and o'boards but can average 13-15 a game, that is a tremendous plus. The Mavs have needed a player like that. The problem offensively has been that the #2 option just can't stay healthy. This team is offensively built around Dirk and Howard being able to carry the load from the starting unit with JET inconsistently providing what he provides off the bench. When you take Dirk or Howard out of the lineup, the team is going to struggle to score.

Marion isn't Howard offensively. He doesn't have the same abilities. You don't want to dump the ball to Marion and let him create too often. Like I said, he is at best a #3 option. But that is not a bad thing. He does what he does offensively exceptionally well. And no, I haven't even got to the contributions that he provides on the defensive end.. So if you're expecting 17 a game out of Marion with him having the ability to take a significant portion of the load off of Dirk now that Howard's out, then you were simply wrong in your expectations. He hasn't underperformed. Marion has been who he is.

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Old 11-23-2009, 02:03 PM   #40
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I also question the clutch ability of our team. Josh isn't and probably never will be a clutch player. Dirk is, JET is, Kidd is; I'm not sure about Marion. I'm not sure about Gooden.
how many Lakers are clutch? Artest, Bynum, Odem, Pau?...nah. How many do you need?

Kobe is Clutch. Dirk is Clutch.

I think Marion+Gooden+Motivated Damp will make a huge difference against the Lakers this year.
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