The ABC's - And D's - Of Mavs Success at db.com

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Mavs Lettermen
The ABC's - And D's - Of Mavs Success
David Lord -- DallasBasketball.com - Posted: 11/12/04

How good is this Mavs team? And if they are going to be successful this year, how will their success be crafted? What are they missing so far?

Thursday night, answers to those questions and more were answered by the Mavs. And many of the answers were elementary-school simple, as basic and obvious as your ABC’s – and D’s:

Fresh off a loss to Orlando that had ruined their perfect record to start the season, and in spite of the absence of Michael Finley and nagging continuing aches for several key players, the Mavs responded by manhandling an undefeated rested Miami team playing at home.

Miami offered a litmus test for the potential of this Mavs team. Not only were they the NBA's last undefeated team coming into the game, they featured the prodigious talents of longtime Mavs' nemesis Shaquille O'Neal, complemented by young phenom Dwyane Wade.

Prior to the game, it was hard to get a real read on the Mavs' ability. There were plenty of excuses for the loss to the Magic: road finale of a back-to-back, players injured, overtime game the night before, and more. But there were also plenty of reasons to question the opening week's perfect 4-0 - all the wins came against teams that were winless, and there were sizable early-game deficits in two of the wins.

SO HOW GOOD IS THIS MAVS TEAM?

This game left little doubt. It was a quality wire-to-wire win against a full-strength top-notch contender. Shaq scored 22, Wade tallied 20, both displayed dazzling demonstrations of basketball excellence at various times - and the Mavs still won by 20.

We have said it before and we will say it again: this Mavs team is good already, in spite of the massive turnover in personnel this offseason. The talent level here is so impressive that their lack of continuity has not been much of a factor. Don't expect it overnight, cause these things can take the better part of a season or perhaps more - but, once this team has time to play together and develop true offensive cohesion, the upside potential for this team is unlimited.

This could get really good.

WHAT WILL KEY THE MAVS' SUCCESS THIS YEAR? THE FIVE D's

With the win, the Mavs reinforced some observations we have seen repeatedly in the games so far, and that seem to provide the formula for Mavs' success this year. Here's what we are seeing: the Mavs 5 D's to success.

1. DIRK - The first key is the most obvious - more than ever, this team is being molded arounded the unique skills of Dirk Nowitzki. He has already been an all-star, but this year he is becoming a genuine superstar that carries a team. Unlike prior years when he was part of a triumvirate (along with Finley and Nash), this year Dirk has been the feature player, and the whole team has been structured to reflect that.

Against Miami, Dirk was virtually unstoppable, scoring 41 and snaring 10 rebounds.

This year there are good players at every position on this roster. That frees Dirk to be inserted at whatever position allows him to best abuse the opponent. For example, against Miami, with Erick Dampier available to shoulder the load against Shaq, Dirk was freed to play PF. When Shaq was resting, Dirk was moved to center to use his size-quickness advantages against the backup.

The Mavs have even played some tall ball this year, with Dirk playing small forward for a time, while Dampier and Henderson played the big positions.

With so much versatility, Dirk is the ultimate X factor for the Mavs, offering even greater unpredictability and matchup nightmares for opponents. As a result, his shooting percentages are up significantly this season, at a career high 49% (42% on 3s) along with a career best season average so far of almost 27 PPG (4th in the NBA), and he has been the key performer for the Mavs in every game this season..

2. DAMPIER - Erick Dampier is giving the team solid top-notch center play. In only 27 minutes a game so far, he is averaging 9 PPG and 9 RBG. But more than that, he has provided little things that are hidden or invisible in a box score, but that have made a sizable difference here.

On defense, he is able to match up with any center in the league and bang and hold his own. Will he win all those matchups? Not necessarily - but, he will win his share. And if he is merely able to hold his own in the middle, the other Mavs defenders can stay with the perimeter players more effectively. The last two years, opponents were able to hit around 35% of their 3 point tries against the Mavs. This year, with less need for collapsing into the middle, that number is under 23%.

He also has made the man-to-man defense easier for other players. This year, players are able to funnel the other player to a shot-blocking center who is waiting. As a result, you will see many times when the opposing player will pull up short, or even back away from attacking the basket, even though they have seemingly gotten past their man. Against Golden State down the stretch in overtime, in a key possession, Fisher was forced into an awkward fallaway baseline jumper that was short, when he was funneled towards Dampier by a perimeter defender. Had he continued, he would have been swallowed up into a double-team. That was a key play in a Mavs' comeback win, but that play was invisible in the box score.

On offense, Dampier gives the Mavs a legitimate low-post scorer and rebounder that the opponent must honor. If they don't he has the ability to score or to rebound and put back. When they are forced to deal with his presence inside, that opens up outside shots and lanes to the basket. The Mavs have consistently been getting much easier open looks this year than last year, in large part for that reason.

One final aspect that we have seen over and over but that goes unnoticed is Dampier's impact on the Mavs' ability to drive to the basket. Many have noted that Finley is going to the basket more this year, and Dirk seems to be getting several dunks a game as well. If you will watch carefully, you will find that a major reason in many of the cases is Dampier's ability to "seal" the opposing shot-blocking center away from the penetration, thus allowing the Mavs player to continue unimpeded to the hoop. That freedom encourages players to attack the basket, resulting in easy scores and more fouls being drawn. Mavs free throws are up 40% this year, from 22 to 31 per game, in large part because the Mavs are attacking the basket with much more frequency.

Dampier's ability to impact a game while going relatively unnoticed in the box score was on display again versus Miami. Those who watched the game saw the difference his presence made in slowing Shaq, but for those who didn't see it, the box score shows a modest 6 pts 5 rebs 0 blks in 18 minutes night.

The stats within the stats show a much clearer story, however. Dampier was somewhat hindered by fouls and thus was in and out of the lineup all night. In the 14 minutes that Shaq played while Dampier was off the floor, O'Neal was 6-6 from the field, tallied 18 points and 6 rebs, and Miami outscored Dallas by 3. In the 18 minutes that Dampier played against Shaq, O'Neal was 2-7 from the field, tallied 4 points and 4 rebs, and Dallas outscored Miami by 20. That was the difference in the ballgame.

Having a legitimate center makes the rest of the players on this team that much more effective.

3. DEFENSE - Team defense is another key that keeps showing up. What has been a weakness is now solid.

The Mavs goal this year has been to hold opponents under 42% on field goal percentage for a game. They have found a way to do that every game. Last year, opponents averaged 46% against the Mavs' defense - the average for this year so far is less than 40%.

As a result, the Mavs have yet to give up 100 points to any opponent (last year opponents averaged almost 101 against them), and overall opponents are averaging under 94/game.

The offense has lagged a bit from last year, with all the new players in place, but the improved defense has more than made up the difference.

Thursday was more of the same, against a very good opponent. Miami had been shooting over 51% from the field and averaging over 103, but was held to 93 pts on 37% shooting.

4. DON - This year, Don Nelson has been given the opportunity to exhibit his ability to utilize a deep and balanced roster in ways that have not been available to him in past years. In prior years, all the gadgets were borne of necessity, to cover up major holes in the team. This year, he is able to use a traditional lineup, then add unexpected wrinkles. His ability to do such things in an effective way has been a key so far, and his expertise in this area will be a key factor all year.

There are still the odd lineup combinations of course, with tall ball and small ball oddities of all kinds. Alan Henderson has been seen playing center with 3 swing men and a point guard rounding out the lineup, while 5 centers (6, counting Dirk) sit. Josh Howard has played at PF, Dirk has played SF, Marquis Daniels and even Josh Howard have played point guard, and who knows what else?

But the conventional lineups are being used too, and now the Mavs are unpredictable again in what sorts of oddities they might throw at a team. They'll use a standard lineup for a while in a game, then Nellie starts attacking with the other options.

In all of this, it comes down to the NBA axiom that "matchups win games," and now that he has a roster stocked with centers that can actually play well, along with good players at every other position, Nellie can juggle his lineup to attack in countless ways.

Is it working? So far it seems to be. There have been times that the lineup seems to be contrived - such as the "Henderson as center, with 4 small men" group noted above - except that, before I could mentally figure out the words to blast it with, that group had created the energy that had been lacking against the Warriors, leading to a Mavs comeback win.

Nellie's ability to push the right buttons when devising lineups has been key, and will continue to be a major factor in such a deep team where everyone wants to contribute. It is noteworthy that almost every player already has had stretches in games where they have made a key contribution to a Mavs win or two - that sense of accomplishment helps ease any frustration that could occur when minutes are hard to come by.

5. DA SHOOTERS - Other than Dirk, the Mavs have a large group of potential scorers that can torch an opponent, and the ability for several of these to be effective each game has been, and will continue to be, a key to success.

The last few years, the scoring punch was provided by Dirk, Finley, and Nash. If one was off, you hoped the other 2 would be effective enough to pick up the slack.

This year there are 5 scorers to provide the extra punch to complement Dirk's prowess: Finley, Howard, Stackhouse, Daniels, and Terry. In time, Harris will develop into an option here as well. As long as the Mavs have a couple of these players who have a good touch each night, they can give other teams fits. Each of these has already had at least a game or two in which they have been a major factor in a win.

With so many bonafide answers here, the Mavs are less likely to suffer games where no one is able to provide scoring threats and points in bunches.

WHAT'S MISSING?

So far, the Mavs have played quite well, and all aspects of their play have been effective. The offense has scored almost as much as past years, and the defense has been far better.

But they are hiding a few trouble spots that need time, or attention (or both). Here are the ABC's of their weak spots so far, as we see them.

1. ASSISTS - The Mavs assists/game are down quite a bit from last year (from 24 to 18), and the team no longer has the central floor leadership that Steve Nash provided. Last year Nash provided almost 9 assists/game, and Walker provided about 1/2 that amount. This year, no Mav player is averaging as much a 3/game.

That isn't all bad news, however. In basketball, baskets count the same whether they come from a pass (and thus an assist) or whether they come on a tip-in or a drive to the basket, neither of which will have an assist attached to the score. This year's Mavs have done a much better job of penetrating to the basket on the dribble, and of getting tip-ins, which are clearly factors in the reduced assist numbers.

It should be noted that though the offensive results are down a bit, the drop is quite slight - from 46% to 45% shooting, and from 105 to 104 PPG.

Nevertheless, the assist numbers do reflect the same thing that the eyeball is telling us - there has been a lot more one-on-one play this year, and less cohesive teamwork and passes. As the season progresses, and players here learn each other's preferences, this gap should lessen considerably.

The point guards here are new also, and the assist stats reflect that. Right now we are not alarmed - but if this stat doesn't go up as the year goes along, that should become a cause for concern, because we expect these guys to get better.

2. BLOCKS - The Mavs have a defense that is designed for blocked shots. But so far, they aren't getting them to the extent anticipated.

Blocks/game this year have gone up to 6/game, but since last's year's centerless defense got 5/game, that is not a particularly impressive number.

The team defense has been solid so far, however, so a lack of blocked shots in and of itself is not a reason to raise red flags.

A minor explanation could be that teams are backing off from taking shots that might be blocked, thus decreasing the blocks but making the defense more effective.

Yet this number is clearly a disappointment, and it appears there is work to be done in this area. Since the scoring defense has improved greatly in effectiveness even without the blocks, we are not alarmed in this area, but the fact that the increase is so paltry tells us that (if nothing else) there is some room for improvement here. Dampier's numbers are down more than 1 BPG from last year.

If this number doesn't increase, it perhaps could indicate an area that teams might be able to exploit. Time will tell on this one.

3. CHILDREN - The Mavs have several rookies, and so far the growing pains have been steep.

Pavel Podkolzin likely won't play a minute this year. DJ Mbenga is playing, but his fouls/min are astronomical. Devin Harris has shown flashes here and there, but at other times he looks like the rookie that he is.

So far the bang-to-hype ratio on these has been quite low. A few nice moments have occurred for Harris, but he needs much improvement before he can be a reliable starter down the stretch of a season.

The Mavs are giving the players a chance to play at times and learn on the job, and for this season, the players (especially Harris) needed to improve significantly if they are expecting to be contributors in the playoffs. The Mavs really need Harris (and perhaps MBenga) to gain the ability to make a solid contribution, if they hope to go far this year.

THE FINAL

With their five D's humming, it appears the Mavs have a sweet formula for success. If they can keep maintaining the 5 D's, and improve their ABC's, they appear to have the formula for an incredible season.