The Official le Tour de France - Go Lance Thread

[u2sarajevo]

I wanted to start this. I love the Tour. And this time of year. The Tour gets us through the summer dulls of a bad Baseball team.... almost up to the beginning of Pre Season Football. Lance is going for his fifth title. I will try to keep this updated on the progress throughout the tour, which starts this Saturday, July 5th.

[u2sarajevo]

I meant to include this link to those of you who care....

le Tour de France 2003

[Mandyahl]

yay for lance! i hope he can win his 5th.

[OutletPass]

Go Junior !!!!!! Ride for 5 Baby.

See ya on your site as always !

[Drbio]

Lance is one of my all time favorite athletes. I wish him nothing but the best in his quest for 5.

[Murphy3]

we all know he's using illegal substances...
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[u2sarajevo]

Originally posted by: Murphy3
we all know he's using illegal substances...
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

Not funny. Really.

If you are using substances to enhance your performance that are illegal, now more than ever you will get caught. Lance has won 4 straight Tours, so scrutiny is multiplied on him. If that were true, he would be banned from riding.

[Murphy3]

U2
I used the [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] to indicate that I wasn't serious about the statement..

the rest of the statement is an inside comment..not really a joke, but many older members will understand the meaning of my statement.

[u2sarajevo]

Originally posted by: Murphy3
U2
I used the [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] to indicate that I wasn't serious about the statement..

the rest of the statement is an inside comment..not really a joke, but many older members will understand the meaning of my statement.

Gotcha Murph. Sorry for the misunderstanding (I thought we all agreed to use the sarcasm icon [img]i/expressions/moon.gif[/img] ).

This year will be pretty tough, although Lance should be wearing the yellow jersey early due to the tough Mountain stages beginning the seventh riding day. Seven mountain stages in all this year.

[Mandyahl]

yeah, i went back and read that thread, murphy. i am not really sure why, but i think i read about it somewhere or something. it was interesting...

[Murphy3]

Mandy, I hope you enjoyed yourself..

[Mandyahl]

it was quite enjoyable, really. i think the board was kind of slow, so i was just looking at past threads. that was definitely one of the most interesting.

[Dooby]

Originally posted by: Murphy3
we all know he's using illegal substances...
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

Has it been a year already? Murph, just think, if not for the board-wide reprieve, you still couldn't post for like another week.

[Murphy3]

actually, dooby..i wasn't on schedule to be banned for a year...
was hypothetically supposed to be in the two week range or something...maybe a month... but, let's just say that it turned out to be a little longer for some reason or another.

At the time of banning, I wasn't banned for any set time..it was more or less indefinitely. And can we not use the word "ban"..the word is a little harsh, don't you think?

But, hey, if not for the incident, I might not have ever become a paid basketball writer

[Drbio]

Technically murph....were you ever really paid? That place hasn't paid very many others unfortunately.



Wow. A year....that was an interesting thread.

[u2sarajevo]

Go Lance!!!!

[Fidel]

Originally posted by: Murphy3
we all know he's using illegal substances...
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

Ummm... what are you talking about? You mean he´s doin drugs? Yeah probably so [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img].

Very tempting I have to admit, but I won´t get into this again. So all I have to say is: Go Jan!!

[Murphy3]

doc..they missed a couple of payments..but, that doesn't mean that i wasn't ever paid..just wasn't ever paid for some of my services

[Mandyahl]

how much do they pay, just curious?

[Drbio]

I see murph. I thought they stiffed you completely. I know of one other that was not paid for over a month and then they left. Shady dealings if you ask me.

[Murphy3]

well, doc, let's just say that it led to something else that I got paid for..but, that's a different story.

the site had potential, but now it's just a three ring circus...the only reason they'd retain their current paying members is just because they forget to cancel their subscription

[Fidel]

GO JAN GO !!!

Very good start for Ullrich this year. He took 5 seconds from Armstrong and 7 from Beloki. The last four years in the prologue Armstrong allways gained some seconds on whoever would finish second overall in the tour. Last year he was 12 seconds ahead of Beloki, in 2001 he had 3 seconds on Ullrich and in 2000 he had 9 seconds on Ullrich. So while it was only the prologue it was definitly a good start for Ullrich.

Now if only I could trust those guys. It takes away alot of the fun for me.

[Mandyahl]

go lance! you can do it!!

[u2sarajevo]

Top ten from todays stage:

1 088 PETACCHI Alessandro ITA FAS in 3h 44' 33"
2 141 MC EWEN Robbie AUS LOT at 00' 00"
3 029 ZABEL Erik GER TEL at 00' 00"
4 111 BETTINI Paolo ITA QSD at 00' 00"
5 093 COOKE Baden AUS FDJ at 00' 00"
6 125 HUSHOVD Thor NOR C.A at 00' 00"
7 044 FREIRE Oscar ESP RAB at 00' 00"
8 116 PAOLINI Luca ITA QSD at 00' 00"
9 168 VAINSTEINS Romans LAT CAL at 00' 00"
10 156 KIRSIPUU Jaan EST A2R at 00' 00"

Current overall standings, Top 10:

1 096 MC GEE Bradley AUS FDJ in 3h 51' 55"
2 061 MILLAR David GBR COF at 00' 04"
3 179 ZUBELDIA Haimar ESP EUS at 00' 06"
4 131 ULLRICH Jan GER TBI at 00' 06"
5 008 PENA Victor Hugo COL USP at 00' 10"
6 071 HAMILTON Tyler USA CSC at 00' 10"
7 155 FLICKINGER Andy FRA A2R at 00' 10"
8 001 ARMSTRONG Lance USA USP at 00' 11"
9 011 BELOKI Joseba ESP ONE at 00' 13"
10 021 BOTERO Santiago COL TEL at 00' 13"


Armstrong is in eigth place overall, 5 seconds behind Ullrich. Tomorrows stage is 204.5 km from La Ferte-sous-Jouarre to Sedan. This will be a sprinters stage. Expect all riders to hang around the peloton, with the chance takers sprinting for the lead, as did Alessandro Petacchi today.

Go Lance!!! (I predict he takes the coveted yellow jersey on Saturday)

[Mandyahl]

ok, i am holding you to that prediction, u2! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[dallas_esq]

Lance goes to France.

[Fidel]

Armstrong is in eigth place overall, 5 seconds behind Ullrich. Tomorrows stage is 204.5 km from La Ferte-sous-Jouarre to Sedan. This will be a sprinters stage. Expect all riders to hang around the peloton, with the chance takers sprinting for the lead, as did Alessandro Petacchi today.

Go Lance!!! (I predict he takes the coveted yellow jersey on Saturday)

500 m before the finish line there was a mass crash today. Tyler Hamilton, Davide Rebellin, Levi Leipheimer, Jimmy Casper, Marc Lotz, Fabio Baldato were all severly injured. At least for Hamilton, Casper and Leipheimer the tour seems to be over allready. Lance Armstrong was slightly injured too, but it shouldn´t be a problem (just scratches).

Tomorrows stage might very well see a mass sprint at the end, but it´s very unlikely that all riders will hang around the peleton. There will be numerous breakout attempts for sure.

And that´s exactly the question when it comes to the yellow jersey. If one of these breakout attempts is successfull over the next few days and a group of riders gains significant time, whoever gets the yellow jersey might very well defend it till next sunday the stage to L`Alpe D`Huez. If none of the breakout attempts is successfull Victor Hugo Pena will take the yellow jersey on wendsday at the team time trial. With Armstrong, Pena, Ekimov, Hincapi US Postal will be hard to beat in the team time trial. Pena is the best driver in the overall standings of US Postal right now, so he will take yellow. I think Credit Agricol won´t be as good in the team time trial as they were last year. Maybe Once can challange US Postal and maybe AG2R and maybe FDJeux. I hope Telekom, Gerolsteiner and especially Bianchi can hang with the best too. Ullrich can´t loose too much time on wendsday but it will be tough since the other good time trial drivers for Bianchi Steinhauser and Becke are pretty unexpirienced. And Casero is a bit of a question mark right now.

Since the profile of this years tour isn´t very difficult I think it will be decided at the time trial stages and the stage to L`Alpe D`Huez which also features the Col du Galibier (13.07.) and the stage to Luz Ardiden which also features the Col D`Aspin and the Col du Tourmalet (21.07.).

I don´t think the favorites will attack on the stage to Morzine (12.07.) allready (the one saraevo prdicted). It´s not difficult enough and theres a pretty long way to go to the finish after the last peak.

All in all I think it will come down to Armstrong vs. Ullrich. And I´m somewhat confident that Ullrich can beat Armstrong this year. He looks really good and didn´t have any injurys before the tour for the first time in 3 years. Physicaly Ullrich can do it, but the head is also very imprtant and that will be the true test for him.

GO ULLE !!!

[dallas_esq]

Glad Lance is OK

[Mandyahl]

fidel, you really know your cycling...are you a big fan or what?

[MFFL]

Originally posted by: Mandyahl
fidel, you really know your cycling...are you a big fan or what?

Oh yeah! fidel is probably the most knowledgeable person on this board about cycling.

[Fidel]

Hey thanks Mandy and MFFL.
I used to love cycling. I went to stages of the tour de france and Giro D`Italia. Also attended a couple of world cup races. For reasons that I don´t want to discuss here again I´m not as big a fan anymore. Just following now, trying to ignore the bad stuff (doping). But at least one time every year, when the Tour de France rolls around, I get caught again. Should be a good tour this year.



Wow. I just learned that american Tyler Hamilton (CSC) who was involved in the crash yesterday is trying to continue the Tour despite a broken collarbone. Tough guy. A broken collarbone is a very usual injury in cycling and normaly it means you have to give up the race. Much respect to the guy for trying.

Jimmy Casper and all the other drivers who were involved yesterday will also try to continue. Really some tough guys there. The only one who didn´t start today was Levy Leipheimer who is out with a hip trauma.

[Mandyahl]

wow...with a broken collarbone? that's amazing.

[u2sarajevo]

Overall leaders after todays stage:

1 096 MC GEE Bradley AUS FDJ in 8h 58' 28"
2 061 MILLAR David GBR COF at 00' 04"
3 093 COOKE Baden AUS FDJ at 00' 04"
4 179 ZUBELDIA Haimar ESP EUS at 00' 06"
5 131 ULLRICH Jan GER TBI at 00' 06"
6 219 NAZON Jean-Patrick FRA DEL at 00' 06"
7 008 PENA Victor Hugo COL USP at 00' 10"
8 071 HAMILTON Tyler USA CSC at 00' 10"
9 155 FLICKINGER Andy FRA A2R at 00' 10"
10 001 ARMSTRONG Lance USA USP at 00' 11"

Top ten from todays stage:
1 093 COOKE Baden AUS FDJ in 5h 06' 33"
2 219 NAZON Jean-Patrick FRA DEL at 00' 00"
3 156 KIRSIPUU Jaan EST A2R at 00' 00"
4 029 ZABEL Erik GER TEL at 00' 00"
5 125 HUSHOVD Thor NOR C.A at 00' 00"
6 141 MC EWEN Robbie AUS LOT at 00' 00"
7 111 BETTINI Paolo ITA QSD at 00' 00"
8 127 O'GRADY Stuart AUS C.A at 00' 00"
9 167 RODRIGUEZ Fred USA CAL at 00' 00"
10 172 ARTETXE Mikel ESP EUS at 00' 00"

Up next stage 3, a 167.5km race from Charleville-Mézières to Saint-Dizier. This stage is short and flat, and fast. Another sprinters stage.

[Fidel]

There were a couple of breakaway atempts today. The longest one was that of Frédéric Finot und Lilian Jegou. Finot led the race for allmost 190 km. Their maximum time lead was 11.30 mins to the peleton.

The reason why it has become so difficult to ride a successfull breakaway attempt on the flat stages is that there are so many good sprinters now. And none of them is really dominating. If Pettachi had won again today that would have meant for tomorrows stage that his team Fassa Bortolo would have had to do most of the work to catch any riders on the breakaway. If there´s one dominating sprinter his team has got to do most of the work, which makes breakaway attempts easier. But right now it´s pretty wide open. There are at least 6-7 riders who can all win a mass sprint, which means there are at least 6-7 teams who would do some work to stop breakaway attempts (as seen today).

So it´s very likely we´ll see the same tomorrow. A couple of breakaways attempts that will be stopped a few kilometers before the finish. And then you have another mass sprint. But sometimes someone gets through. That usually happens when the peleton underestimates the group or when no team really wants to do the work in the peleton and everyone is just waiting for someone else to start.

[dallas_esq]

Is Armstrong slipping?

[Mandyahl]

i don't know much about cycling, but i don't really think it matters where he is in the times just yet as long as he is near the top. there have only been a few stages, and a lot of the guys at the top aren't going to be able to stay there for the whole tour. as long as lance can stay reasonably close to the top time, he should have a chance to make his move later in the tour. fidel can probably explain it better though.

[u2sarajevo]

Top ten from todays stage (Stage 3):
1 088 PETACCHI Alessandro ITA FAS in 3h 27' 39"
2 168 VAINSTEINS Romans LAT CAL at 00' 00"
3 044 FREIRE Oscar ESP RAB at 00' 00"
4 029 ZABEL Erik GER TEL at 00' 00"
5 141 MC EWEN Robbie AUS LOT at 00' 00"
6 116 PAOLINI Luca ITA QSD at 00' 00"
7 195 POLLACK Olaf GER GST at 00' 00"
8 206 FURLAN Angelo ITA ALS at 00' 00"
9 053 COMMESSO Salvatore ITA SAE at 00' 00"
10 127 O'GRADY Stuart AUS C.A at 00' 00"

Top ten overall leaders:
1 219 NAZON Jean-Patrick FRA DEL in 12h 25' 59"
2 096 MC GEE Bradley AUS FDJ at 00' 08"
3 061 MILLAR David GBR COF at 00' 12"
4 093 COOKE Baden AUS FDJ at 00' 12"
5 179 ZUBELDIA Haimar ESP EUS at 00' 14"
6 131 ULLRICH Jan GER TBI at 00' 14"
7 156 KIRSIPUU Jaan EST A2R at 00' 15"
8 141 MC EWEN Robbie AUS LOT at 00' 18"
9 008 PENA Victor Hugo COL USP at 00' 18"
10 071 HAMILTON Tyler USA CSC at 00' 18"

Lance has fallen 8 more seconds back and is now 12th overall:
12 001 ARMSTRONG Lance USA USP at 00' 19"

Next up is team time trials. You can not win the Tour with a good showing in the team time trials, but you can lose it. Correct Fidel?

And Dallas.... no Armstrong is not slipping. He is 19 seconds off the lead, all of the Mountain stages (Armstrongs strong suit) are still to come.

Go Lance!!!

[dallas_esq]

Good to know Armstrong is not slipping. If he wins this year he will do what no one else has done in that event?

[Fidel]

Good to know Armstrong is not slipping. If he wins this year he will do what no one else has done in that event?

He would win it for the fifth time. That has benn done before by Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Miguel Indurain. Indurain however was the only one to win it five times in consecutive years (1991-95). So Armstrong would be the second rider to achieve that.

i don't know much about cycling, but i don't really think it matters where he is in the times just yet as long as he is near the top. there have only been a few stages, and a lot of the guys at the top aren't going to be able to stay there for the whole tour. as long as lance can stay reasonably close to the top time, he should have a chance to make his move later in the tour. fidel can probably explain it better though.

Basicly in the first few days you have three types of riders on top of the classement.

The prologue specialists (they often come from course cycling). Those are people like McGee, Millar or Ekimov who´s a pretty good time trial rider in general. Those drivers are fighting for yellow in the prologue and often stay in the top 10 or top 20 until the first mountain stages. Most of them aren´t good climbers and will slip once the mountain stages roll around. Millar is a fairly good climber though and he could finish the tour in the top 20.

The second group of drivers are the sprinters. They try not to lose too much time in the prologue (most of them aren´t good time trial drivers) and then they try to go for the jellow jersey through time bonuses. There are three sprints on every flat stage that give you 6, 4 and 2 seconds of time bonus for the first three. The other time bonus comes at the finish line. It´s 20, 12 and 8 seconds for the first three places. Basicly that´s how Nazon won the jellow jersey today. He won two of the three sprints I think and that got him enough bonus seconds to climb on top of the classement. All those sprinters like Nazon, Cooke, Kirsipuu, McEwen, O´Grady, Zabel and Pettachie will slip deep down to the end of the classement in the mountains. Zabel is the best climber out of the sprinters, that´s why his chances to win a stage increase as the tour goes on. He´s about the only one who can compete on semi difficult stages with mountains up to category 2 because he´s able to stay in the lead group on those stages while most other sprinters are not. At the real difficult mountain stages though he will lose alot of time too.

Third group are the drivers that compete for the overall win. Obviously they can´t lose too much time in the prologue so you´ll find them anywhere from place 1 - 40. They slip some on the early stages cause they don´t compete in the sprints which are very risky (and they wouldn´t have a chance anyways). That are drivers like Armstrong, Ullrich, Beloki. They will be alone in the top 10 after the first difficult mountain stage.

Sometimes there is a fourth group. If a breakaway attempt is successfull the riders can gain quite alot of time. Other teams would never allow someone like Ullrich or Beloki or any other favorite to gain time on a flat stage so drivers that might gain some time with a breakaway aren´t very good in general. They might lead the classement by 10 mins or something and in that case it might take a while (even a few mountáin stages) until they lose their place at the top (Cedric Vasseur did something like that a couple years ago and had the yellow for around 10 days. He faught like a madman giving more effort than he actually could in the alpes and defended the yellow for two mountain stages I think. At the end he couldn´t hold of the likes of Armstrong and Ullrich and finished the tour 4th or 5th. But he´s a hero in france ever since).

Next up is team time trials. You can not win the Tour with a good showing in the team time trials, but you can lose it. Correct Fidel?

Well it depends. When you are going for the overall tour win it´s really not important if your team wins the team time trila or not. The only thing that´s important is how do you compare to the teams of the other favorites. Two of the favorites Armstrong and Beloki have teams that should do pretty well tomorrow, US Postal and Once. So they both won´t lose too much time on each other (going from the last years at least). Maybe somewhere between 15 and 45 seconds between those two teams if none of them has technical problems or crashes. 15 - 45 seconds isn´t a whole lot. Both of those teams should finish in the top 3.

CSC should have been pretty good too, but their best driver Tyler Hamilton is injured. He was kind of an underdog favourite to win the tour but I don´t think he ha a chance now with his broken collarbone. Also his team will have to wait for him tomorrow because I doubt he can go 100%. So CSC is kinda out of the picture.

Another team that was strong last year was Fassa Bortolo. But they don´t have a real favorite for the overall win this year and are built more around super sprinter Pettachi. I think they will finish in the top 7.

Cofidis is a nother good team in the team time trials. No real tour favorite here but they should finish top 5.

The other two heavy tour favorites besides Armstrong and Beloki are Ullrich and Simoni. And now it gets tricky. Because of the trouble with Coast and the switch to Bianchi Ullrich teams lost two good drivers. One of them Zülle is a good time trial driver and they will miss him tomorrow. Most of the good time trial drivers besides Ullrich in team Bianchi are unexpirienced germans like Daniel Becke and Tobias Steinhauser. Angel Casero wasn´t up to form the whole year so he´s a question mark too. Bianchi (Ullrich) can´t lose too much time tomorrow. Ullrich wouldn´t lose the tour but it would make it a lot more difficult if he loses more then two minutes on Armstrong tomorrow. I hope they can finish in the top 7 and maybe lose something like 0.45 to 1.15 mins on US Postal and Once.

Basicly the same goes for Simoni and his Saecco team. They have two injured drivers and aren´t very good at the team time trial anyways. So for Simoni it´s also about not losing too much time (I think they will lose more time then Bianchi though).

Darkhorses who could show strong tomorrow are Gerolsteiner and AG2R. But both teams don´t have any riders to compete for the overall tour win.

So yeah Sarajevo, what you said is basicly true. Usually the favorites don´t win the tour in the team time trial but they can lose significant time allready.

[Drbio]

Nice job Fidel...


Viva la Lance!

Tour de Lance!!!!!