Predict the 2013-2014 season

[Kante]

Opener against Atlanta, against the Spurs on Dec. 26 and Feb. 18 the Heat come to town.

[LonghornDub]

Looks like the ol' ball coach himself voted that the team's gonna win between 0 and 28. How disheartening.

[DirkFTW]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Looks like the ol' ball coach himself voted that the team's gonna win between 0 and 28. How disheartening.

Maybe he only glanced at the poll and thought he was voting for a 28-0 streak.

[Ninkobei]

My 0-28 vote was to reverse jinx the team so they will win 65+. Of course now I've just undone that reverse jinx so back to square one. Thanks Obama

[CanadianMavsFan]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/95...west-standings

ESPN has us at 9th and 39 total wins. Why we drop 2 wins from last year after improving at almost every position is beyond me, but it seems the league is very low on Dallas right now.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by CanadianMavsFan

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/95...west-standings

ESPN has us at 9th and 39 total wins. Why we drop 2 wins from last year after improving at almost every position is beyond me, but it seems the league is very low on Dallas right now.

Because teams like the Nuggets got so much better this summer? Oh, wait...

[marc9211]

Originally Posted by CanadianMavsFan

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/95...west-standings

ESPN has us at 9th and 39 total wins. Why we drop 2 wins from last year after improving at almost every position is beyond me, but it seems the league is very low on Dallas right now.

Let me break this down we have added TWO point guards better than any one we had last year. You could even say Mekel is better at pg than collison to make three! Monta Ellington and Vince are better than Mayo and Vince, same at SF with Marion playing better with a point guard that can run an offense. At PF a HEALTHY Dirk (although espn always counts him out). Daly fits better with this team than Kaman. So to summarize we will be better at 4 of 5 positions with the SF bein the same, we've acquired young talent with Larkin and other and we are much deeper. So all of this equals is being worse then last years team? Come on ESPN.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by marc9211

Let me break this down we have added TWO point guards better than any one we had last year. You could even say Mekel is better at pg than collison to make three! Monta Ellington and Vince are better than Mayo and Vince, same at SF with Marion playing better with a point guard that can run an offense. At PF a HEALTHY Dirk (although espn always counts him out). Daly fits better with this team than Kaman. So to summarize we will be better at 4 of 5 positions with the SF bein the same, we've acquired young talent with Larkin and other and we are much deeper. So all of this equals is being worse then last years team? Come on ESPN.

Nope, the Mavs are going to be a lotto team because ESPN says so... They're the "sports authority" - never question their infallibility!

[marc9211]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Nope, the Mavs are going to be a lotto team because ESPN says so... They're the "sports authority" - never question their infallibility!

I think Bud Selig may have had something to do with this...

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by marc9211

I think Bud Selig may have had something to do with this...

Zing!

[EricaLubarsky]

Prediction: 48-34, 2nd in Southwest Division, 5th in Western Conference

How old is too old?

The Mavs are about to find out. All five projected starters are on the wrong side of 30, as is ace sixth man Jason Terry. It hasn't hurt them yet -- the Mavs won 55 games last season, an amazing 10th straight year with at least 50 wins -- but one has to wonder how long the Mavs can keep churning younger players into older ones before it all collapses in a heap.

Last season the Mavs accelerated the "treadmill" approach, re-signing Jason Kidd, trading for Shawn Marion and then executing a midseason deal with Washington for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. That latter deal created some delusions of grandeur since (A) word of Butler's decline apparently had failed to reach Texas, and (B) the Mavs almost immediately ripped off a 13-game winning streak. Alas, it was a mirage; while the Mavs finished second in the Western Conference standings, they were only eighth in victory margin. For the third time in four seasons, Dallas lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Nonetheless, they'll bring back largely the same crew this season. Offensively, a couple of positives stand out. First, obviously, is the continued excellence of Dirk Nowitzki, who remains among the league's most efficient performers -- not only did he produce his usual 26.7 points per 40 minutes, but he uses remarkably few possessions to rack up his points.

Theoretically, that should have left plenty of opportunities for other players to thrive. In practice, it was incredibly disappointing that Dallas finished only 10th in offensive efficiency, and the team may need to rethink how some of the pieces fit. Two other starters (Kidd and Haywood) rarely shot the ball, while the other Mavs were mostly jump-shooters. The result was predictable: Dallas ranked just 26th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, a major reason they failed to land higher in the offensive-efficiency tables.

Ironically, Dallas led the league in free throw percentage at 81.6 percent, an accomplishment that obviously would have been much more useful had it earned free throws in greater quantity. Not one Maverick finished in the top 15 at his position in free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

Defensively, Dallas placed 12th, with the main talent being a very low foul rate -- not surprising for such a veteran team. Dallas was fifth in opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt, mirroring its greatest offensive weakness. Between those two items, in fact, only the Hornets' and Knicks' games featured fewer combined free throw attempts than Dallas.

Dallas' greatest skill last season wasn't offense or defense, actually -- it was pulling rabbits out of hats at the end of games. The Mavs went 18-7 in games decided by five points or less after going 18-5 in such games a year earlier; in fact, since 2004-05 the Mavs are 93-44 in these games.

The outlook for Dallas this season depends in part on whether one considers that luck or skill. On one hand, 93-44 is a pretty impressive mark -- if these games were truly random, we'd expect this to happen only one time in 50,000. That makes it difficult to ascribe to random chance.

However, as ESPN.com contributor Kevin Pelton has written, these aren't entirely random -- good teams will win slightly more often even in games this close. So if we use Dallas' record in non-close games in that period (.696) and modify by Pelton's formula to give them a probability of .565 in the close games, the odds of Dallas running up such an impressive record is more like 1 in 150.

One in 150 still sounds ironclad -- it's statistically significant. That takes us back to the old statistician's saw that if you go looking for significance, you'll find it. While the knee-jerk reaction is to attribute the Mavs' outperformance in close games to its many wily veterans, other studies have shown no correlation between age and close-game performance. Additionally, the Mavs' record in these contests dates back to a time when they weren't nearly as long in the tooth.

The better question to ask is, if this is a durable skill, what other things would we expect to see? For starters, we'd expect to see more year-to-year carryover in teams' records in these games. Historically, there is absolutely no correlation between a team's close-game record one season and its record the next. Even for Dallas, there was a 9-12 season mixed in with the 18-5 and 20-4 marks.

We'd also expect out-of-sample testing to show the trend holding up. But the Mavs went 8-14 in playoff games decided by five points or less in that stretch, dropping 11 of their past 12 -- including two this past spring in the first-round playoff loss to San Antonio. That explains why I didn't buy Dallas as a No. 2 seed last season, and why I suspect they'll be unlikely to stay at the 55-win level this time around.

A more valid reason to believe Dallas can keep up its string of 50 wins is the one good, young player they have in the pipeline -- Rodrigue Beaubois. In fact, the Butler trade may have inadvertently thrown a wrench in the Mavs' season by preventing them from starting Beaubois.

On a per-minute basis, he was the second-best Mav behind Nowitzki and led all rookies in PER -- but he rarely played. That was true even in the postseason; he played only 10 minutes in the first five games of the San Antonio series before nearly rallying the Mavs from 19 down in the concluding Game 6 … only to see the Spurs pull away while he sat the first 10 minutes of the final quarter.

Pistons fans will immediately note the parallels to another rookie, Tayshaun Prince, whom Rick Carlisle had to be prodded to use more in the postseason. (Carlisle, it should be noted, squeezed about all one possibly could from this roster otherwise.) Finding a role for Beaubois will remain a challenge going forward, not least because the obvious solution -- benching Butler and cutting Jason Terry's minutes -- is going to leave some key veterans unhappy.

If the Mavs are content with losing in the first round again, or perhaps the second if they get a good draw, then they can probably achieve it while leaving the 30-something quintet of veteran starters intact. They'll have a nice, safe season and no chance of winning anything important. To do anything more, however, depends on somebody like Beaubois emerging as a capable cohort to Nowitzki.

Offseason Moves
Dallas entered the offseason thinking it had a major card to play in the non-guaranteed contract of Erick Dampier, but it quickly became clear the team overplayed its hand. The Mavs would have been better off cashing in at the 2010 trade deadline, when they had already added Butler and Haywood but clearly needed another piece.

By the summer, so many teams had cap space and trade exceptions at least as large as Dampier's contract that the Mavs had little leverage; in fact, Utah outbid them for Al Jefferson with one of those exceptions.

Traded Matt Carroll, Eduardo Najera and Dampier to Charlotte for Tyson Chandler and Alexis Ajinca. The Mavs did the next-best thing with Dampier -- they used him to dump some unwanted salary flotsam and then gained another backup center with a huge expiring contract in Chandler, leaving open the possibility of using it in a blockbuster deal somewhere down the line. Chandler should be at least as good as Dampier; throw-in Ajinca is a failed first-rounder they'll see if they can get turned around.

Re-signed Dirk Nowitzki to a four-year, $80 million deal. Nowitzki gave the Mavs a bit of a hometown discount -- he could have signed for as much as $96 million. That should, theoretically, help the Mavs pursue other players, although Mark Cuban wasn't exactly shy about spending to upgrade the roster beforehand.

Re-signed Brendan Haywood to a six-year, $55 million deal. Dallas overpaid for Haywood, and probably knew they'd be doing this last February. The Mavs effectively purchased his Bird rights in the trade last year, with DeShawn Stevenson's burdensome contract representing the purchase price. While the last year is not guaranteed -- one of Dallas' favorite cap tricks -- the odds of Haywood being a $10 million player at age 35 are roughly on par with my chances of outrunning Usain Bolt.

Unfortunately for Dallas, the market for frontcourt talent quickly got out of hand this past summer, and they're highly unlikely to get full value from this deal. In the short term, however, they've locked up the center spot. They'll worry about the long-term later, but as long as Cuban is willing to pay luxury tax, this deal won't hurt the Mavericks.

Purchased No. 25 pick from Memphis, drafted Dominique Jones. This was less for an immediate need than a recognition that Dallas is awfully short on young talent right now. Buying a draft pick was a good way to prevent a potential crash two years down the road when the starters will go from being merely old to positively geriatric.

Signed Ian Mahinmi for one year, minimum. Mahinmi can't stay healthy, but he's been fairly productive in his limited minutes and could provide a solid fifth big man for Dallas. Also, he's 23 -- providing another inexpensive avenue to infuse the roster with some youth.

Biggest Strength: Size
We don't think of the Mavs as bullies, but this year's team should be huge just about everywhere. It starts in the backcourt, where the 6-4 Kidd is nearly the biggest player at his position, and goes all the way to the center spot. Dallas now has two legit, productive 7-footers in Haywood and Chandler that they can rotate during games, tying down one opposing big man while the other tries to deal with the 7-foot Nowitzki on the perimeter.

Dallas's size is just as imposing on the wings. While I'm not fond of starting Butler at shooting guard, his 6-7 frame will allow him to shoot over most wings. Marion, meanwhile, has always played much taller than his own listed height of 6-7, allowing him to dominate opposing small forwards around the rim. Newcomer Jones fits this profile as well as a physical 6-5 guard.

Additionally, the Mavs have worked on adding more size on the bench with additions of players like Mahinmi and Ajinca. One other key cog, unfortunately, didn't work out when forward Tim Thomas left the team for a second straight season in order to tend to his ill wife.

There will still be times when Dallas plays small, especially in the backcourt where Kidd is likely to play a lot of mintues with either Brea, Terry or Beabouis joining him. But it appears Nowitzki wil see little or no action at center, and if so it follows that Marion's time at the four would also be limited. As a result, Dallas's frontcourt should consistently be as big or bigger than the opponents', even against the L.A.s, Portlands and Bostons off the league.

Biggest Weakness: Age
The Mavericks should be good again this year. But one must acknowledge the risk that this thing could go off the rails in a hurry. Dallas is old on paper, and it played like it too -- both the Mavs and their opponents were at or below the league average in free throws, turnovers and offensive rebounds, which are the classic signs of an older club.

Of particular concern is Dallas' age on the perimeter. While Beaubois is a glaring exception, Kidd is 37, Butler is 30 and Terry and Marion are 32. Kidd has aged extraordinarily well, but the other three all saw fairly large performance drops last season that could be the first stage of a steady decline. Kidd's numbers aren't red-flag-free either -- his rebound rate, though still impressive, has declined steadily over the past four seasons. He also could be a victim of the age around him -- while Kidd thrives in the open court, none of the other geezers will run with him.

The area of least concern is Nowitzki -- with his size and shooting ability, any age-related decline should be gradual as long as no injuries crop up. That said, if his play were to diminish, this whole house of cards would fall faster than you can say "Bennett Salvatore."

Outlook
The biggest question in projecting the Mavs is how they'll use the roster. I project each team based on the idea that they'll play their best-rated players the most (provided those players are healthy), but in Dallas' case I feel less assured than in some others. I rated them with Beaubois playing nearly 2,000 minutes after returning from injury, which would require the Mavs to use Butler exclusively as a backup small forward and to reduce Terry's minutes. I'm not sure they're ready to do this, but if Beaubois plays as well as he did a year ago, I don't think they'll have a choice.

The projection for Beaubois is perhaps too optimistic; on the other hand, Kidd's looks far too negative. On balance, it evens out. The other factor to consider is the magic beans the Mavs have been using to spirit close games into the win column in recent seasons. I remain a non-believer, but if you want to give Dallas extra credit for this you should add about three wins to the total below.

The other factor to consider is the Mavs' willingness to spend along the way. If a deal crops up, they'll make it, even if it costs them even more in luxury tax. Considering they have $27 million in expiring contracts with Butler, Chandler and Stevenson, they'll probably do something between now and the trade deadline.

[u]At the end of it all, however, it looks like more of the same. The Mavs are probably still another year or two away from their age catching up to them. In the meantime, they'll be the same middle-of-the-pack Western Conference playoff team they've been throughout the Carlisle era.[u]

Some good stuff in there-- from our championship year. 5th in the West and 9th overall.

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings.../2010/week/-1v

[EricaLubarsky]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/previe...1011-NBAchamps
Not a single ESPN writer predicted we'd win the 2010-2011 championship and about half thought the Lakers (who we swept) would win it all.

[j0Shi]

In such a season the divisional play could decide a lot. Even the Pelicans are competitive nowadays.

[Melonhead]

Nice to see you again...

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Looks like most posters were right on the money...not that 47-52 was a tough guess.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Chris Sheridan has us ranked at #25 in his Summer Power Rankings...

[DevinHarriswillstart]

^The worst part of that is being ranked behind the Bucks. So many dumb people on this planet...

[EricaLubarsky]

Either 50-32 or 49-33. Most people predicted our record pretty darn well.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Either 50-32 or 49-33. Most people predicted our record pretty darn well.

Its been stated enough, but youd think with 50 wins youre sitting at a 5-6 seed easy. Eastern conference has two, 2! teams with 50 wins. I did hear that the new commish was looking into doing like a sweet 16 for the future.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Its been stated enough, but youd think with 50 wins youre sitting at a 5-6 seed easy. Eastern conference has two, 2! teams with 50 wins.

No kidding - I predicted 46-50 wins, good for 5th seed in the West... I got the wins right, but not the seeding.

Damn the West!

[LonghornDub]

Hail to the victors:

Benny, bobdole22, BPo001, Budapest Maverick, Cabbage, CanadianMavsFan, Cerberus, DevinHarriswillstart, Dirk's Knee, dirk2003, GhostFace, He15man, jasonic, jayC, LonghornDub, LSMF, marc9211, markus1234, Mav Addict, MavsFTR, Melonhead, NeedlesKane, NorwegianMavsFan, purplefrog, ribosoma, RolandoP, saclare, samoan-maverickII, Songbard, spreedom, tsar, Underdog, Vinsanity

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Its been stated enough, but youd think with 50 wins youre sitting at a 5-6 seed easy. Eastern conference has two, 2! teams with 50 wins. I did hear that the new commish was looking into doing like a sweet 16 for the future.

Which is why people need to stop harping on this treadmill fringe playoff talk. Winning 50 or close to 50 games in today's Western Conference is extremely difficult. We also play in the hardest division in basketball.

[Budapest Maverick]

I predicted 48 wins, but i feel like i was still way off, because i never would have guessed this style of play, and the way our team achieved it. This season't team is such an uncharacteristic Carlisle team.

[spreedom]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Hail to the victors:

Benny, bobdole22, BPo001, Budapest Maverick, Cabbage, CanadianMavsFan, Cerberus, DevinHarriswillstart, Dirk's Knee, dirk2003, GhostFace, He15man, jasonic, jayC, LonghornDub, LSMF, marc9211, markus1234, Mav Addict, MavsFTR, Melonhead, NeedlesKane, NorwegianMavsFan, purplefrog, ribosoma, RolandoP, saclare, samoan-maverickII, Songbard, spreedom, tsar, Underdog, Vinsanity

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

I predicted 48 wins, but i feel like i was still way off, because i never would have guessed this style of play, and the way our team achieved it. This season't team is such an uncharacteristic Carlisle team.

You and I can agree there, but he had no other choice. Defense and rebounding weren't options from the get-go. Best to play to a team's strengths when you know you can score with the best of them.

[Melonhead]

I envisioned 48 wins, but it feels like every single one of them was a dogfight.