Offseason/Salary Cap Situation - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

escobar317 · 03-03-2014, 03:00 AM

So I've spent a couple of hours looking taking a rough look over our salary situation for the offseason.

We have 28 million on the books currently. These are the contracts for: Mekel, Ledo, Larkin, Ellington, Wright, Calderon and Ellis.

FA are Crowder,Sarge, Sammy D, Marion, Harris, Blair, Carter and Almighty Dirk.

I went around the league to look at market values to see where we would stand. Now keep in mind I didn't include exceptions, so if anyone is well versed with those, please chime in. This is a rough estimate.

Our salary is at ~$28 mil BEFORE these signings:

Dirk for ~$10 Mil (Tim duncan range)
Vince for $4-$5 mil(Jamaal Crawford range)
Harris for ~$2 mil(Mo Williams range)
Crowder for ~900K (Team Option)
Sarge for ~$1.1 mil(qualifying offer)

At this point we'd be at ~$47 million which is ~$13 under the projected cap of $60 million for 2014-2015 season.

Now we have some decisions to make:
Do we keep Dalembert ,Marion or both?

Dalembert could sign for ~$3.8 mil (Non-guaranteed via contract)
Marion could sign for ~$7 mil (Ginobli range)

That would Leave us at ~$57.8 mil and virtually no room to play with in terms of major impact players.

If we don't sign Marion and Dalembert (which I don't want to happen because I hate parting with players

) we would have ~$13 million to play with. We would need a center and sf.

Centers/PF's that may be available:
Andersen Varajao ~$10 Mil (Robin Lopez range)
Marcin Gortat ~$10 mil (Robin Lopez range)
Greg Monroe ~ $12(David West range)
Amir Johnson $7Mil-$12 Mil
Kosta Koufus $9mil (Asik range)

Small Forwards:
Gordon Hayward $6 mil(Wilson Chandler) - $13mil(Paul George)
Luol Deng ~$10 mil (Amount he'd take from Bulls)
Chandler Parsons $6 mil(Wilson Chandler) - $13mil(Paul George)
Carmelo Anthony - ~$14 mil - $20 mil (willing to take pay cut)

There are a few others that can be found here. But in the end we'd have ~$13 million to play with.

What direction would you guys/gal prefer? Who/ what should we go after?

Disclaimer: I apologize if it's too early for this discussion but I got bored and decided to look up salary cap #'s.

Budapest Maverick · 03-03-2014, 04:42 AM

It's borderline impossible to put together a contending roster in the next 3 seasons.

GermanStandard · 03-03-2014, 05:49 AM

Why would you consider resignin James for 1 Mil?

He doesnt play a role now and wont in the future.

By the way we have $26,556,235 of salaries for next year not 28.

FA are Marion, Carter, Dirk, Crowder, Harris, Blair, James

1.) Resign Dirk to a 8-10 M a year Contract (he will do it).

= 35 M / 60 M

2.) Resign Marion (he will be 36) to a 3-4 M Deal (currently is overpaid with 9M)

= 38 M / 60 M

3.) Resign Carter (will be 38, not sure if he plays another season) to a 1-2 M deal.
(currently gets 3M)

= 40M / 60M

Resign Harris to another 1M a year deal

= 41 M / 60M

Part ways with Crowder (doesnt offer much), James (non factor), Blair (undersized and non factor right now) and Dalembert (too expensive for what he offers)

So you have 19-20 M (if you do it cleverly a full max contract) to give next season.

The Roster next season:

Calderon / Harris / Larkin
Ellis / X / Ellington (Ledo)
Marion / Carter / X
Dirk / X / Wright
X / Wright

Now lets look at the Free Agents.

PG is set for next season.

SG:
Dwayne Wade (Early Termination Option but likely stays in Miami)
Lance Stephenson (unrestricted)
Evan Turner (restricted)
Avery Bradley (restricted)
Ray Allen (restricted)
Nick Young (player option)
Thabo Sefolosha (unrestricted)
Jodie Meeks (unrestricted)
Jimmer Fredette (unrestricted)
Ben Gordon (unrestricted)
Shannon Brown (unrestricted)

You are looking for a Backup for Ellis. Since he doesnt play D i would prefer a 3 & D guy like Sefolosha. You could get him for about 3-4 M a year. Stephenson would be the better option but his price will be high next season and we cant afford him.

SF:

Your looking for a depth guy to fill in at the 2/3 Position behind Marion and Carter so i left out all the Names like Lebron, Melo, Deng etc. who become early termination options or free agents.

Guys i look at are:

Danny Granger (unrestricted)
Trevor Ariza (unrestricted)
Al-Faruq Aminu (unrestricted)
Caron Butler (unrestricted)
Shane Battier (unrestricted)
Michael Beasley (unrestricted)
Marvin Williams (unrestricted)
CJ Miles (unrestricted)
Mike Miller (unrestricted)
Richard Jefferson (unrestricted)
Brandon Rush (unrestricted)

Out of this core i look for Granger, Aminu or Miles who could all be have for 2-3 M a year.

PF:

I dont look for guys like Randolph, Bosh, Gasol etc. who are early termination options or free agents cause we simply cant and dont need to pay them.

Boris Diaw (unrestricted)
Kris Humphries (unrestricted)
Jordan Hill (unrestricted)
Jason Smith (unrestricted)
Dante Cunningham (unrestricted)
Kenyon Martin (unrestricted)

You clearly need a Backup other than Wright (who can play C aswell) for Dirk.
Out of this core i would consider Jordan Hill for Rebounding and toughness. You should get him for about 3-4 M a year

C:

Greg Monroe (restricted but likely leaves Detroit)
Spencer Hawes (unrestricted)
Marcin Gortan (unrestricted)
Chris Kaman (unrestricted)
Emeka Okafor (unrestricted)
Channing Frye (players option)

You need a Starter here. No really Big Names available but you could either consider Monroe if Detroit kicks him or Hawes. Both should be available for 7-8 M a year but both lack on the Defensive Side of the Ball.
Gortat would be a nice guy aswell and slightly better on the Defensive Side but not really a good Defender. He should be a little bit more expensive than the other guys if you look at the current salaries.

My option would be Monroe since he is the youngest and has immense upside. Carlisle could teach him.

So the Roster 2014/2015 could look like.

Calderon / Harris / Larkin
Ellis / Sefolosha / Ellington
Marion / Carter / Aminu (Miles or Granger)
Dirk / Hill / Wright
Monroe / Wright / Hill

= ~57/58 M in the books.

Depending on your salary work you are either done or have another 2-3 M to spend for a rotational player.

This obviously is Option A which is getting a core of good players (no Superstars) but giving Dirk the Chance to compete a little until he retires. After that anyway you look at it all wheels will come off and you start rebuilding.

Option B would be taking the 20M and get someone for Max. But the only guys who deserve a Max are Lebron and Anthony (both wont come to Dallas). Even if you could get one Superstar this wouldnt fix the team since you wouldnt have any depth so i consider Option A better.

escobar317 · 03-03-2014, 11:53 AM

Nice post. I got our cap figure fromhere and they have us slated at $28 million guaranteed. I like the scenarios you raise.

I like the idea of picking up Sefalosha, Monroe/Gortat and Hill. Humphries wouldn't be bad either. He's decent on the defensive end.

Those guys will be in demand so hopefully we can lure them here.

My oppositions:

Crowder would only be 915K next season so why not keep him and see what an extra year could do?

Carter had a great year. Are there other cases of players his age/level having a great contract year then taking a pay cut?

Dalembert for 3.8 million is a good price for a decent back-up 5 IMO

Granger has played like he's out of gas so he's a no go for me.

Melonhead · 03-08-2014, 11:03 AM

Balls out for Monroe in the offseason. Would love to add Gordon Hayward as well. Dont see Sefalosha leaving Thunder

jthig32 · 03-08-2014, 11:44 AM

Dalembert is not a FA and his contract is not fully unguaranteed. It's partially guaranteed at 1.8Mil. The idea that he is overpaid at ~3.8Mil seems rather absurd to me. I think it's a virtual certainty that he will be retained.

If the Mavs want Vince back, and Vince wants to be back, I feel pretty confident that he will hang around and let them make all their moves and then agree to a contract that fits into the Room Exception. So I'm pretty comfortable ignoring him for salary cap purposes.

I also think Crowder's team option at 900K is pretty likely to be picked up. He's a rotation caliber player at close to minimum salary.

Also, keep in mind that the current NBA estimate for next year's salary cap is 62Mil.

So if you assume Dalembert and Crowder are kept, Dirk is given 10Mil (which I think is the ceiling), and Vince will take the Room exception, that leaves you just over 19Mil to spend with only four empty spots on the entire roster. I have no idea how anyone could look at that and say it's not enough money to improve the team.

Between the salary flexibility we will have and the asset we have in Monta (if we choose to move him, which I'm less convinced of than I was two months ago), I think we have a serious chance to turn ourselves into a fringe contender over the summer.

Underdog · 03-08-2014, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

Dalembert is not a FA and his contract is not fully unguaranteed. It's partially guaranteed at 1.8Mil. The idea that he is overpaid at ~3.8Mil seems rather absurd to me. I think it's a virtual certainty that he will be retained.

If the Mavs want Vince back, and Vince wants to be back, I feel pretty confident that he will hang around and let them make all their moves and then agree to a contract that fits into the Room Exception. So I'm pretty comfortable ignoring him for salary cap purposes.

I also think Crowder's team option at 900K is pretty likely to be picked up. He's a rotation caliber player at close to minimum salary.

Also, keep in mind that the current NBA estimate for next year's salary cap is 62Mil.

So if you assume Dalembert and Crowder are kept, Dirk is given 10Mil (which I think is the ceiling), and Vince will take the Room exception, that leaves you just over 19Mil to spend with only four empty spots on the entire roster. I have no idea how anyone could look at that and say it's not enough money to improve the team.

Between the salary flexibility we will have and the asset we have in Monta (if we choose to move him, which I'm less convinced of than I was two months ago), I think we have a serious chance to turn ourselves into a fringe contender over the summer.

More posts like this, please.

Where did you find out about the $62m cap estimate? I was under the assumption it was going to be around $60m, but I hadn't heard anything either way.

jthig32 · 03-08-2014, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

More posts like this, please.

Where did you find out about the $62m cap estimate? I was under the assumption it was going to be around $60m, but I hadn't heard anything either way.

https://twitter.com/LarryCoon/status/341612702961131520

LonghornDub · 03-08-2014, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

Dalembert is not a FA and his contract is not fully unguaranteed. It's partially guaranteed at 1.8Mil. The idea that he is overpaid at ~3.8Mil seems rather absurd to me. I think it's a virtual certainty that he will be retained.

If the Mavs want Vince back, and Vince wants to be back, I feel pretty confident that he will hang around and let them make all their moves and then agree to a contract that fits into the Room Exception. So I'm pretty comfortable ignoring him for salary cap purposes.

I also think Crowder's team option at 900K is pretty likely to be picked up. He's a rotation caliber player at close to minimum salary.

Also, keep in mind that the current NBA estimate for next year's salary cap is 62Mil.

So if you assume Dalembert and Crowder are kept, Dirk is given 10Mil (which I think is the ceiling), and Vince will take the Room exception, that leaves you just over 19Mil to spend with only four empty spots on the entire roster. I have no idea how anyone could look at that and say it's not enough money to improve the team.

Between the salary flexibility we will have and the asset we have in Monta (if we choose to move him, which I'm less convinced of than I was two months ago), I think we have a serious chance to turn ourselves into a fringe contender over the summer.

This is a terrific post. Sadly, I'm in near disagreement with the emphasized; Crowder's development thus far has disappointed me immensely.

Although, at a minimum salary, he is certainly not the worst per-dollar player around. And I do like his defense.

Underdog · 03-08-2014, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

https://twitter.com/LarryCoon/status/341612702961131520

Straight from the guru, nice.

I'm interested to find out just how much Dirk signs for... I know Duncan's $10m is the figure people are rolling with, but what's the minimum he can take at this point in his career? Another $1-5m of cap space could go a long way this summer.

EDIT: Larry Coon with the answer again - looks like Dirk can sign for as little as $1.8m if he wants to.

Murphy3 · 03-08-2014, 12:24 PM

I would like to see Dirk sign for less... I suppose we'll see.

Melonhead · 03-08-2014, 12:27 PM

Whats the thought on Marion next season? I could see it going the same way as Terry. Wanting more than Mavs willing to offer(4m), and heads off somewhere else.

I DO want VC back. A little slow to start the season, but man he anchors that second unit with aggression. And his connection with Wright is something I love watching.

No reason not to pick up Crowder, although I think he's just about hit his ceiling.

Personally, I think 10m is the least Dirk signs for.

some1nw · 03-08-2014, 03:02 PM

Carter said he'll play a couple more years.
http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/maver...espnapi_public

jthig32 · 03-09-2014, 01:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Whats the thought on Marion next season? I could see it going the same way as Terry. Wanting more than Mavs willing to offer(4m), and heads off somewhere else.

Personally, I think 10m is the least Dirk signs for.

I just don't really know where an impact player would play if the Mavs re-sign Marion. I think he signs elsewhere.

As for Dirk's salary - I don't think he's signing for the minimum or anything close to it (he mentioned to Simmons that he wants to sign something that show the proper amount of respect), but I don't think he signs for more than Duncan did. I expect it to be between 7-10Mil.

oilfieldtrash · 03-09-2014, 01:31 PM

tbh if I'm Dirk I don't consider less than 15 a year unless Cuban has something worked out like Miami did with other big free agents willing to sign and take a pay cut as well. Dirk already took less once and was rewarded by having the perfect complimentary piece in Chandler let go.

He15man · 03-13-2014, 06:46 PM

Would love to see Chandler Parsons at SF

Not sure how much of a fit he is here though

soundchaser · 03-13-2014, 10:20 PM

mac222b · 03-14-2014, 12:07 AM

I see Dirk at no less than 8 million and no more than 12 million per.
10 sounds about right. Could be a situation where he takes less if two desirable FA's commit right away: Deng&Gortat for instance and if an extra 1.5-2 or so makes the difference I could see Dirk taking less.

Popeye · 03-14-2014, 10:23 AM

I wouldn't be opposed to giving Dirk a 4 year / $30 mil deal, and he could be an $8mm/year towel waiver in year 4. That would limit our cap hit in the first year without being unfair to Dirk.

The down-side is the year 4 salary, but i think by then we'll either be in full re-building mode or enough over the cap not to matter. Maybe you could make it stretch provision friendly with a partial guarantee in year 4.

alby · 03-14-2014, 12:43 PM

Whatever the exact numbers are, we should have about 15m-21m to play with this summer.

The more important question is this: Is this a make or break offseason for the Mavs FO, before we have legitimate doubts about their effectiveness?

mac222b · 03-14-2014, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alby

Whatever the exact numbers are, we should have about 15m-21m to play with this summer.

The more important question is this: Is this a make or break offseason for the Mavs FO, before we have legitimate doubts about their effectiveness?

Every offseason is crucial but this offseason needs to be of the "putting the finishing touches on a contender" type IMHO.

Crucial questions:

-will Mavs have their 1st round pick? This will effect ability to potentially trade for a difference maker(Asik,Sanders, Monroe, Rondo)if FA's arent available or desired.

-will they attempt to balance the roster by trading one of Ellis/Calderon?

-how much does Dirk sign for?

-are valuable rotation/depth guys retained(VC, Devin)

The most interesting question for me will be how much MBT values/balances financial flexibility/fiscal sanity going forward vs. possibly having to bid higher for players at positions of need-- i.e. the Dengs and Gortats and Stephensons of the world. Will they draw the line at what they perceive to be a players "true value" vs. market value. I know all of this is situational and variable on player to player basis but it seems that the guys I mentioned above along with Monroe are not going to be gotten at a discount(as what happened with Monta).

Will they slightly overpay to get their guy with the title window rapidly closing? Or will we see a variation of Dry Powder with the quest for another Batman deferred... with more smart, sane signings- maintaining future flexibility.

jthig32 · 03-14-2014, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mac222b

-will Mavs have their 1st round pick? This will effect ability to potentially trade for a difference maker(Asik,Sanders, Monroe, Rondo)if FA's arent available or desired.

I've been monitoring this all year. Right now they would have the 21st pick, which means they would convey that to the Thunder and close the books on the abomination that the Odom trade turned out to be. If they slip to 20th they would keep it. Having a pick in this year's draft wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but closing that trade and freeing themselves up to move first round picks in future deals is the goal. I hope it happens.

Quote:

-will they attempt to balance the roster by trading one of Ellis/Calderon?

Two months ago I was near convinced that Monta would be traded. Now I'm far less sure. But I'd be very surprised and very disappointed if they're both back in starting roles next year.

Quote:

-how much does Dirk sign for?

I'm very interested to see how this ends. He could dramatically swing things by either demanding more money or taking a tiny contract. I think he lands somewhere in the middle at 10Mil or so.

Quote:

-are valuable rotation/depth guys retained(VC, Devin)

I think it's a near lock that VC is back, and I think it's a good bet that Devin is too. One of them will hang around and take the room exception.

Quote:

The most interesting question for me will be how much MBT values/balances financial flexibility/fiscal sanity going forward vs. possibly having to bid higher for players at positions of need-- i.e. the Dengs and Gortats and Stephensons of the world. Will they draw the line at what they perceive to be a players "true value" vs. market value. I know all of this is situational and variable on player to player basis but it seems that the guys I mentioned above along with Monroe are not going to be gotten at a discount(as what happened with Monta).

Will they slightly overpay to get their guy with the title window rapidly closing? Or will we see a variation of Dry Powder with the quest for another Batman deferred... with more smart, sane signings- maintaining future flexibility.

I don't think there's any way the Mavs play "Dry Powder" this offseason. Sure, things could break poorly and leave them with limited options. And if that happens I don't think they'll spend just to spend (like Detroit). Barring a disaster (or a stroke of luck with someone like Carmelo), they will do like last year and obtain a primary target or two at market price (Calderon) and then wait for deals (Devin, Monta).

BTW, their pragmatism has worked (although not in the way that they or some of us thought it would). They've rebuilt to the point that they're a top 10 NBA team and are going to have major cap room next year with a chance to add significantly to that base. I'm sure they'll make a play for Carmelo or someone else via trade. But if that doesn't materialize they'll add assets that will hep the team improve further, just as they did last season.

I'm excited to see it, personally.

ffballer · 03-14-2014, 04:14 PM

i seriously dont think melo is leaving nyc now that phil jackson is going to be their gm..

Underdog · 03-14-2014, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Popeye

I wouldn't be opposed to giving Dirk a 4 year / $30 mil deal, and he could be an $8mm/year towel waiver in year 4. That would limit our cap hit in the first year without being unfair to Dirk.

The down-side is the year 4 salary, but i think by then we'll either be in full re-building mode or enough over the cap not to matter. Maybe you could make it stretch provision friendly with a partial guarantee in year 4.

He already said his next contract will be for 2 or 3 years...

Quote:

“In the summer I will be free agent and likely extend the contract for two or three years. As long as the body supports me, it is still fun to play basketball. After the new contract I will be 38 or 39 and I will probably stop. For a few years it will work out all right”

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-...-for-2-3-years

Melonhead · 03-14-2014, 07:41 PM

There's absolutely no way Monta is being traded until Dirk retires. Dirk has loved having him as his sidekick and never stops talking about him when given the opportunity.
Calderon I love his intensity but he feels more like an expensive 3 pt shooter. For less money I like what he does, because Devin is finishing as of late. Trading Calderon only makes the offseason that much harder because now youre looking for a PG thats above him, and thus more expensive.

Could absolutely see both of them back next season.

I wonder how much Marion is willing to stay for...

Popeye · 03-14-2014, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

He already said his next contract will be for 2 or 3 years...

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-...-for-2-3-years

Yeah, I was trying to figure a way to give him the money without taking a large cap hit next year. Maybe you can make the 4th year only 50% guaranteed. If he doesn't feel like playing the last year, you "cut" him and he gets a $4mm retirement present.

Underdog · 03-14-2014, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Popeye

Yeah, I was trying to figure a way to give him the money without taking a large cap hit next year. Maybe you can make the 4th year only 50% guaranteed. If he doesn't feel like playing the last year, you "cut" him and he gets a $4mm retirement present.

Nah, I think Dirk and Cubes are going to keep his contract simple and straightforward... I seem to remember Dirk talking about maybe signing a two-year deal, then going year-to-year if his body is up to it, but I can't find a link on that (pretty sure it was a German article from last summer).

mac222b · 03-14-2014, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Popeye

Yeah, I was trying to figure a way to give him the money without taking a large cap hit next year. Maybe you can make the 4th year only 50% guaranteed. If he doesn't feel like playing the last year, you "cut" him and he gets a $4mm retirement present.

I think there is an "over 36" provision in the CBA to prevent teams from doing this. Basically his earnings would be prorated over the life of the deal thus negating any potential savings

mac222b · 03-14-2014, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Nah, I think Dirk and Cubes are going to keep his contract simple and straightforward... I seem to remember Dirk talking about maybe signing a two-year deal, then going year-to-year if his body is up to it, but I can't find a link on that (pretty sure it was a German article from last summer).

Ideally I would love to see him sign a one year deal. That way if a superstar is available Summer 2015, much better FA class, and Dirk wants to resign for much less to lure the big fish, he could, theoretically. Of course its much more likely he signs for 2 or 3 years...

Popeye · 03-14-2014, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mac222b

I think there is an "over 36" provision in the CBA to prevent teams from doing this. Basically his earnings would be prorated over the life of the deal thus negating any potential savings

You're right, i forgot about this. Good catch.

Underdog · 03-14-2014, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mac222b

Ideally I would love to see him sign a one year deal. That way if a superstar is available Summer 2015, much better FA class, and Dirk wants to resign for much less to lure the big fish, he could, theoretically. Of course its much more likely he signs for 2 or 3 years...

Agreed... But I'd also like to see him sign for the rock-bottom $2m that he's allowed to take... I'm a Mavs fan and he's the 5th highest-paid NBA player of all time.

Although he won't, nor should he - the next 2-3 years could end up being all sorts of things, success-wise, but the only guarantee in this league is money.

Underdog · 03-14-2014, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

There's absolutely no way Monta is being traded until Dirk retires. Dirk has loved having him as his sidekick and never stops talking about him when given the opportunity.
Calderon I love his intensity but he feels more like an expensive 3 pt shooter. For less money I like what he does, because Devin is finishing as of late. Trading Calderon only makes the offseason that much harder because now youre looking for a PG thats above him, and thus more expensive.

Could absolutely see both of them back next season.

I wonder how much Marion is willing to stay for...

Marion probably walks... He's definitely lost a step, but he's still worth more than we should probably pay him - especially if we go after a guy like Deng this summer.

As far as Ellis/Calderon/Devin? I think Harris sticks around for cheap. He's a great fit, plus he likes Dirk/Carlisle/Cuban/Dallas. And I agree that we can find cheaper 3-point shooters than Calderon - his shooting percentage alone should be able to net us a decent return at one position or another... Ellis has the highest trade value, but we probably shouldn't trade him for anyone other than a bona fide star, given his salary vs. production ratio. And as you said, Dirk likes him.

This is going to be an interesting summer.

Melonhead · 03-14-2014, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

This is going to be an interesting summer.

First time Ive been this excited about a summer in awhile. We have money, but we also have the assets to draw FA here.

mac222b · 03-14-2014, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Agreed... But I'd also like to see him sign for the rock-bottom $2m that he's allowed to take... I'm a Mavs fan and he's the 5th highest-paid NBA player of all time.

Although he won't, nor should he - the next 2-3 years could end up being all sorts of things, success-wise, but the only guarantee in this league is money.

I could see him taking less--like 6-8 million per--- for the right teammates. But not in a vacuum. It's not a great FA class anyway. But if they get commits from their top 2 targets(Gortat or Monroe and Deng for instance)and they need an extra couple few million to make it happen, I could see Dirk signing for 1 year 6-8 range. But I don't think he takes less for the likes of Trevor Ariza or Okafor. Or to squeeze in another Wayne Ellington type.

But it is interesting to ponder. If he took 4 million we could legitimately land Gortat, Deng and even another player of the J.J Redick/P.J. Tucker MLE ilk. Or put in a claim on Boozer if he's amnestied. Continue the strength in numbers approach.

I think Spreedom mentioned PJ Tucker earlier this year and he would be an interesting pick-up. Really improved his 3 point shooting this season up to 40%. He's sort of what we all wished for as Jae Crowder's best case scenario. If Deng or Stephenson gets upwards of 12 million from some team and MBT doesnt want to pay that. I don't trust Ariza his FG% and 3pt% are way above his previous highs. I could see them gambling Mid Level money on Tucker's continued progression if other options don't pan out

mac222b · 03-14-2014, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

I've been monitoring this all year. Right now they would have the 21st pick, which means they would convey that to the Thunder and close the books on the abomination that the Odom trade turned out to be. If they slip to 20th they would keep it. Having a pick in this year's draft wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but closing that trade and freeing themselves up to move first round picks in future deals is the goal. I hope it happens.

Two months ago I was near convinced that Monta would be traded. Now I'm far less sure. But I'd be very surprised and very disappointed if they're both back in starting roles next year.

I'm very interested to see how this ends. He could dramatically swing things by either demanding more money or taking a tiny contract. I think he lands somewhere in the middle at 10Mil or so.

I think it's a near lock that VC is back, and I think it's a good bet that Devin is too. One of them will hang around and take the room exception.

I don't think there's any way the Mavs play "Dry Powder" this offseason. Sure, things could break poorly and leave them with limited options. And if that happens I don't think they'll spend just to spend (like Detroit). Barring a disaster (or a stroke of luck with someone like Carmelo), they will do like last year and obtain a primary target or two at market price (Calderon) and then wait for deals (Devin, Monta).

BTW, their pragmatism has worked (although not in the way that they or some of us thought it would). They've rebuilt to the point that they're a top 10 NBA team and are going to have major cap room next year with a chance to add significantly to that base. I'm sure they'll make a play for Carmelo or someone else via trade. But if that doesn't materialize they'll add assets that will hep the team improve further, just as they did last season.

I'm excited to see it, personally.

I'm excited too. I agree with Ellis over Calderon at this point. Although Ellis clearly holds more trade value, especially with their respective contracts in consideration.

My prediction is that the Center they want is not available via FA. Gortat will re-sign in Washington, Hawes is a bad fit, etc. Could see a trade for a more defensive minded guy like Asik or Sanders. Monroe is the wildcard. Okafor could be the value play ala Dalembert.

Count me in the camp that wants the pick handed over to OKC asap. Having the ability to trade first round picks is the surest way to land another All-Star caliber player.

Question: as soon as the pick is conveyed to OKC in 2014 do the Mavs then have the ability to trade a 1st in the following draft 2015 or does it have to be 2016 so as not to be consecutive?

spreedom · 03-15-2014, 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mac222b

I could see him taking less--like 6-8 million per--- for the right teammates. But not in a vacuum. It's not a great FA class anyway. But if they get commits from their top 2 targets(Gortat or Monroe and Deng for instance)and they need an extra couple few million to make it happen, I could see Dirk signing for 1 year 6-8 range. But I don't think he takes less for the likes of Trevor Ariza or Okafor. Or to squeeze in another Wayne Ellington type.

But it is interesting to ponder. If he took 4 million we could legitimately land Gortat, Deng and even another player of the J.J Redick/P.J. Tucker MLE ilk. Or put in a claim on Boozer if he's amnestied. Continue the strength in numbers approach.

I think Spreedom mentioned PJ Tucker earlier this year and he would be an interesting pick-up. Really improved his 3 point shooting this season up to 40%. He's sort of what we all wished for as Jae Crowder's best case scenario. If Deng or Stephenson gets upwards of 12 million from some team and MBT doesnt want to pay that. I don't trust Ariza his FG% and 3pt% are way above his previous highs. I could see them gambling Mid Level money on Tucker's continued progression if other options don't pan out

Yes! I love the potential PJ Tucker has here as a Marion replacement. He's a killer from the corners and makes his man work hard on offense. Exactly the sort of players we should be looking at... hell, if we did something like re-signing Dirk/Vince/Devin, then traded Wright for Chandler and signed PJ, we'd be a top 4 seed from jump street next season. Beyond that, if we could sign-and-trade Marion (maybe package him with Shane) to get a cheaper, defensive-minded backup PF, we might even be contenders next season. I haven't even begun to crunch the numbers to see what we'd have to do to make all of that stuff work, but it'd be very exciting to see.

mac222b · 03-15-2014, 01:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spreedom

Yes! I love the potential PJ Tucker has here as a Marion replacement. He's a killer from the corners and makes his man work hard on offense. Exactly the sort of players we should be looking at... hell, if we did something like re-signing Dirk/Vince/Devin, then traded Wright for Chandler and signed PJ, we'd be a top 4 seed from jump street next season. Beyond that, if we could sign-and-trade Marion (maybe package him with Shane) to get a cheaper, defensive-minded backup PF, we might even be contenders next season. I haven't even begun to crunch the numbers to see what we'd have to do to make all of that stuff work, but it'd be very exciting to see.

There were rumors of Phoenix having interest in Deng. Could be our main competition for Deng, along with a few other teams. I seem to remember Deng's on/off offensive/defensive ratings with the Bulls being pretty spectacular. Especially on defense. Anyone have something similar for Tucker?

Deng is a really nice 3rd or 4th option on offense when he isn't asked to do too much. Decent passer and ballhandler and rebounder too for a SF. Also a long and somewhat versatile defender. As close as we'll probably get to late prime Shawn Marion that way.

The more I think about it the more I think Deng is priority #1 this summer

Underdog · 03-15-2014, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mac222b

There were rumors of Phoenix having interest in Deng. Could be our main competition for Deng, along with a few other teams. I seem to remember Deng's on/off offensive/defensive ratings with the Bulls being pretty spectacular. Especially on defense. Anyone have something similar for Tucker?

Deng is a really nice 3rd or 4th option on offense when he isn't asked to do too much. Decent passer and ballhandler and rebounder too for a SF. Also a long and somewhat versatile defender. As close as we'll probably get to late prime Shawn Marion that way.

The more I think about it the more I think Deng is priority #1 this summer

Deng is easily the best player available this summer, so he should definitely be our top priority. He's going to be worth whatever he gets paid.

As far as a center? The free agency crop doesn't look so great this summer: Gortat/Monroe/Hawes/Okafor are all pretty underwhelming. Any of them would really just be "settling" for the best you can get. Of course, any of those guys with Dalembert as a backup would be a vast improvement over what we have right now... Or we could just trade for a center. We have assets.

jthig32 · 03-15-2014, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mac222b

Question: as soon as the pick is conveyed to OKC in 2014 do the Mavs then have the ability to trade a 1st in the following draft 2015 or does it have to be 2016 so as not to be consecutive?

The rule about not trading consecutive first round picks only applies to future picks. As soon as the draft is over they would be free to trade their 2015 pick.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

There's absolutely no way Monta is being traded until Dirk retires. Dirk has loved having him as his sidekick and never stops talking about him when given the opportunity.

I think you're overstating things here a little bit. Yes Dirk likes him, but he's not going to pitch a fit if they trade him to improve the team. They have to figure out the Calderon/Ellis issue if they want to become a legitimate contender, so I don't think anything is off the table.

mac222b · 03-15-2014, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

The rule about not trading consecutive first round picks only applies to future picks. As soon as the draft is over they would be free to trade their 2015 pick.

I think you're overstating things here a little bit. Yes Dirk likes him, but he's not going to pitch a fit if they trade him to improve the team. They have to figure out the Calderon/Ellis issue if they want to become a legitimate contender, so I don't think anything is off the table.

Thanks for the clarification. Read Coon and still was unclear. Great news. Really hoping we relinquish the pick to OKC.