PGT: Mavs beat Suns, secure playoff spot - Page 3 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

LonghornDub · 04-13-2014, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Seriously, what's with the bitching and moaning about Ellis and the Dallas Mavericks right after Ellis had his best game in a Mavs uniform and secured a playoff spot for our team during one of the most competitive seasons for a conference in NBA history??

Five-ofan · 04-13-2014, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

I do not. There are many 2nd options in this league that are not average, despite averaging around 20 or less, around the same raw PPG as Monta. The problem is, they either do it more (or in some cases way more) efficiently, and/or they can also do another, or more than one thing at a very good, sometimes elite level.

There are around 30 players in the NBA averaging between 16 to 21 points, i would rather have at least 20 of them instead of Monta. Dragic, Lillard, Paul, Howard, Wade, Lowry, Bosh (3rd option), Lawson, Conley, and Parker are no brainers. Then we didn't even touch 2nd options who don't average 16, but i'd still rather have, like Noah and Marc Gasol.

After them, you have the likes of Klay Thompson, Afflalo, Kevin Martin, Gay, who are all more efficient scorers (sadly even Gay). Despite being a much more efficient scorer, I would not take Martin over Ellis for example, so i'm not saying efficient scoring is the only criteria. I would certainly take Afflalo, Gay, and even Thompson over him though. I mean, it is what it is. Monta is painfully average if you look through the exciting playing style.

Lets start with the obvious, Paul, Howard, Wade and Parker are in a completely different class of players. They are all superstars and yes they are better than monta. I dont know of any fan who would even argue that, nor do i understand the point of you listing them. Yes they are better "second options" than him but they are also all part of duel superstar teams and no one has ever claimed monta is a superstar. This probably still applies to bosh too but they are a different circumstance.

Next, Dragic, Conley, Lawson, lowry and Conley are there teams respective first options and thus irrelevant to this discussion. And for the record I'd take monta over Lowry or derozan for the raptors. Both are 42% shooters and in derozans case, he's also less of a distributer and an equally terrible 3 pt shooter as monta.

What makes lillard a no brainer? I'd rather have monta. You complain about Montas fg% but ignore that lillard is shooting 3% lower, is an even worse defender, and is also averaging fewer assists? Totally makes sense. You have entirely different classes of players listed in that first group like they all fit together. In the last group and in the guys I mentioned in the second paragraph you have a large group of guys who are largely in the same tier of players as monta. Yes you may prefer them, but that's only because you see monta every day and thus his flaws are more obvious. I actually agree that he's pretty much who he's always been with the exception of last year, but who he's always been is pretty damn good.

Five-ofan · 04-13-2014, 04:42 PM

Also I'd like to point something out, a big reason monta helps is because he gives us a guy who can at least compete with most other second options. If you are being shot at by a guy with an ar 15 from 100 yards away and you only have a knife but you find a fully loaded ak47 on the ground, you don't throw a fit that the ak47 isnt another ar15. You thank the stars that you upgraded your weapon and start shooting back.

Budapest Maverick · 04-13-2014, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Of course you're comparing the 49-32 Mavericks to the 37-43 Hawks - you have your own definitions for what words mean now... Everybody except for you would consider a "treadmill team" to be the ones that continually miss the playoffs, but don't get top lotto picks either. Basically, it's the teams stuck in the middle of the pack - 9 out of 30 is not the middle.

I was not talking about this year's Hawks, but the one that "always" made the playoffs with Joe Johnson and co. but was never a contender. To me, they were as "treadmill" as you can get. And to address the second part of your answer, that team was widely regarded as "treadmill", so no, not everybody except me considers only teams that haven't made the playoffs as treadmill teams.

Budapest Maverick · 04-13-2014, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Well, I thought about making an argument by cherry-picking a couple stats and then calling my opinion "fact" with "no other way to look at it"--as you did in your past couple posts--but gifs are more fun.

There is nothing cherry picking about this, 19 points on 53%TS is average. The efficiency is actually below league average amongst 2nd options. I can make the list for you tomorrow if you'd like. I don't know what else to tell you about this.

Budapest Maverick · 04-13-2014, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Seriously, what's with the bitching and moaning about Ellis and the Dallas Mavericks right after Ellis had his best game in a Mavs uniform and secured a playoff spot for our team during one of the most competitive seasons for a conference in NBA history??

You are right of course, but my intention was not to bitch and moan, but the poster i first replied to called out the "haters", like Monta set the world on fire this season. Truth is, he didn't. Well, he did, in a couple games, including last night's thankfully.

DevinHarriswillstart · 04-13-2014, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

There is nothing cherry picking about this, 19 points on 53%TS is average. The efficiency is actually below league average amongst 2nd options. I can make the list for you tomorrow if you'd like. I don't know what else to tell you about this.

Simple question...

Did you watch last night's game and have you watched the majority of the games this season? Touting a true shooting percentage like that reeks of someone who didn't. And to say that makes a player automatically average is a lesson in absurdity.

LonghornDub · 04-13-2014, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

There is nothing cherry picking about this, 19 points on 53%TS is average. The efficiency is actually below league average amongst 2nd options. I can make the list for you tomorrow if you'd like. I don't know what else to tell you about this.

Yeah, you're not cherry-picking at all. What was I thinking?

If your list is going to categorize players with completely nebulous criteria like "second options"--which you've already shown you struggle with, as Five-o points out--then don't bother.

Now, if you want to make a list categorizing players with something objective--say, players who make around Monta's salary of $8M/year--I'd love to see that.

Budapest Maverick · 04-13-2014, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

Also I'd like to point something out, a big reason monta helps is because he gives us a guy who can at least compete with most other second options. If you are being shot at by a guy with an ar 15 from 100 yards away and you only have a knife but you find a fully loaded ak47 on the ground, you don't throw a fit that the ak47 isnt another ar15. You thank the stars that you upgraded your weapon and start shooting back.

I like this post very much, and i haven't thought about this from that standpoint. You are right, if i think about last summer, the truth is, Monta was probably the best option, and if our defense would be even average, i'm probably more optimistic about him, and our team as well. It just hurts that they suck so much on defense.

Five-ofan · 04-13-2014, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

There is nothing cherry picking about this, 19 points on 53%TS is average. The efficiency is actually below league average amongst 2nd options. I can make the list for you tomorrow if you'd like. I don't know what else to tell you about this.

How exactly is being 23rd in the league in scoring average for a 2nd option in a 30 team league?

Budapest Maverick · 04-13-2014, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

How exactly is being 23rd in the league in scoring average for a 2nd option in a 30 team league?

Scoring efficiency. Stackhouse had seasons where he lead the league in scoring if i remember correctly (or maybe he was 2nd in one of those 2 years), but i don't think he was ever close to being the best scorer, because his subpar efficiency. Monta at 53% TS is having one of the better years of his career, but that still doesn't make him a very good 2nd option. On a second tought btw, i think Monta is above average, because of his playmaking ability, which is definitely underrated. So yeah, i'm changing my mind somewhat, as a total package, Monta is definitely above aboverage this year, on offense i add.

LonghornDub · 04-13-2014, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

Monta is definitely above aboverage this year, on offense i add.

I think we can all agree that Monta's defense is usually quite poor, although he is good at taking charges.

Five-ofan · 04-13-2014, 05:24 PM

I'd agree with that. One last little factoid. Lebron, James harden, steph curry, isiah Thomas and Chris Paul are the only players in the nba averaging 19/5.8/45% fg outside of mr ellis

Budapest Maverick · 04-13-2014, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Yeah, you're not cherry-picking at all. What was I thinking?

If your list is going to categorize players with completely nebulous criteria like "second options"--which you've already shown you struggle with, as Five-o points out--then don't bother.

Now, if you want to make a list categorizing players with something objective--say, players who make around Monta's salary of $8M/year--I'd love to see that.

I did not list only 2nd options on that list, that was not my intention, sorry if it was not clear. In my first pharagraph i talked about 2nd options, then i listed every name on good teams that averaged around that PPG, and a couple more who had good seasons. It was a first draft. With around that salary, i don't think i find many players who i'd rather have. I mean, i could find many, just not guards.

GermanDunk · 04-13-2014, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

He's having an average season. 19 points, on 53% TS. Nothing special, in fact quite mediocre if you take a look at some of the better 2nd options in the league. Still, kudos to him for last night's performance. Although, I don't expect much from him in the playoffs, he is a terrible playoff performer. Hopefully he's going to prove his doubters wrong, otherwise we'll have no chance.

Budapest Maverick · 04-13-2014, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Simple question...

Did you watch last night's game and have you watched the majority of the games this season? Touting a true shooting percentage like that reeks of someone who didn't. And to say that makes a player automatically average is a lesson in absurdity.

Yes. True shooting percentage is the single most important stat with a player that's main attribute is to score the ball. If a player averages 50 points a season on 40% TS, he'll still be one of the worst scorers ever, and his team probably won't win 10 games. Scoring efficiency is the most important in a scorer (on offense). What's really sad btw, is that Monta's playing off of Dirk all season, one of the most doubled guys in the league.

Budapest Maverick · 04-13-2014, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

I'd agree with that. One last little factoid. Lebron, James harden, steph curry, isiah Thomas and Chris Paul are the only players in the nba averaging 19/5.8/45% fg outside of mr ellis

That's fine and dandy until you take a look at their scoring efficiency, and realize one of those players is not like the others. And sadly, it's not Thomas. 53% 57,5%, 57,6% 62,5%, 60,06% 64,9%. 3-4% is a very big gap in TS%, the league average is around 54%, Monta is below that, you jump up 3%, and at around 57%, you see the very efficient scorers in the league. You jump another 3% and around 60% (and above) you'll see the absolute elite, often all-time great scorers, like Dirk for example. So yeah, raw numbers are nice, but they don't paint the most accurate picture. Ok, i'm going to just let it go, i guess i made my argument too many times already, it's not like i'm going to convince anybody. Hopefully Monta will shut me up in a week or so anyway.

Five-ofan · 04-13-2014, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

Yes. True shooting percentage is the single most important stat with a player that's main attribute is to score the ball. If a player averages 50 points a season on 40% TS, he'll still be one of the worst scorers ever, and his team probably won't win 10 games. Scoring efficiency is the most important in a scorer (on offense). What's really sad btw, is that Monta's playing off of Dirk all season, one of the most doubled guys in the league.

I understand your point but I think you overrate ts%.

DevinHarriswillstart · 04-13-2014, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

Yes. True shooting percentage is the single most important stat with a player that's main attribute is to score the ball. If a player averages 50 points a season on 40% TS, he'll still be one of the worst scorers ever, and his team probably won't win 10 games. Scoring efficiency is the most important in a scorer (on offense). What's really sad btw, is that Monta's playing off of Dirk all season, one of the most doubled guys in the league.

nvm

Melonhead · 04-13-2014, 06:18 PM

Rewatching the game, and every single time there is a timeout on the floor, Dejuan Blair is the first guy out there slapping everyone coming back to the bench.

Budapest Maverick · 04-13-2014, 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

nvm

Back at you.

Underdog · 04-13-2014, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Rewatching the game, and every single time there is a timeout on the floor, Dejuan Blair is the first guy out there slapping everyone coming back to the bench.

Nice to see someone finally stepping up to take the Brian Cardinal role on the bench...

yahyes · 04-13-2014, 06:51 PM

Any chance Monta or Dirk can get the most improved player award?

Melonhead · 04-13-2014, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Nice to see someone finally stepping up to take the Brian Cardinal role on the bench...

Haha I like him, his attitude, just not his height

spreedom · 04-13-2014, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

Any chance Monta or Dirk can get the most improved player award?

It would be insulting to even consider Dirk... maybe he could win the Comeback Player of the Year? Even then, he was playing at this level for about the last 20 games of last season.

I think Monta deserves consideration but most will overlook him because based on the very simple statistics, this is a very "Monta" season.

jthig32 · 04-13-2014, 08:06 PM

I find this argument pretty interesting, because I actually agree that Monta is largely overrated by the Mav fanbase. However, almost all of the "overratedness" stems from his really poor defense, which people are less prone to really pay attention to. Other than his very questionable decision making late in close games, I have no idea how anyone could describe his offense as "average" or anything close to it.

I'm a big fan of advanced stats, but if you think you can boil down NBA players and assess them based on ANY stat (or combination of two) you are certifiably nuts. Mark Cuban himself, at the 2013 Sloan Sport conference, went on the record saying that stats intended to boil down players to consumable numbers (like PER) are hogwash.

And if you DO want to try to assess a player by a single number, the newly released "Real Plus/Minus" rates Monta as the 24th best offensive player in basketball.

Underdog · 04-13-2014, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

Any chance Monta or Dirk can get the most improved player award?

Nope... While they've both inproved since 12-13, neither of them were bad enough last season to qualify. Especially when you consider how much guys like Gerald Green and DeAndre Jordan have turned it around.

Underdog · 04-13-2014, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

I find this argument pretty interesting, because I actually agree that Monta is largely overrated by the Mav fanbase. However, almost all of the "overratedness" stems from his really poor defense, which people are less prone to really pay attention to. Other than his very questionable decision making late in close games, I have no idea how anyone could describe his offense as "average" or anything close to it.

Is Monta overrated by the Mavs fanbase? Seems like most of us defend him from being constantly underrated, rather than actually overrating him... His lack of defense seems to be pretty common knowledge, despite ranking 11th league-wide in steals. And I doubt anyone would be surprised to find out that he commits more turnovers per game than all but 9 players in the league.

But there's still a perception by some folks that he's a malcontent chucker, and that's just entirely off base.

G-Man · 04-13-2014, 09:21 PM

Where is the advanced stat about how Monta drives to the basket more than just about anyone in the NBA? Its not measured in TS%, but it has made a hell of a difference it the stat I care about most-wins and losses. The major difference in this years Mavs and last years is that we finally have someone who can break down defenses. It does lead to more turnover, but it also leads to more wide open shots for team mates, more trips to the line, more hockey assists. Could OJ Mayo do that? If he could, he'd still be here.

DevinHarriswillstart · 04-13-2014, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-Man

Where is the advanced stat about how Monta drives to the basket more than just about anyone in the NBA? Its not measured in TS%, but it has made a hell of a difference it the stat I care about most-wins and losses. The major difference in this years Mavs and last years is that we finally have someone who can break down defenses. It does lead to more turnover, but it also leads to more wide open shots for team mates, more trips to the line, more hockey assists. Could OJ Mayo do that? If he could, he'd still be here.

http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingD...rowsPerPage=25

sike · 04-13-2014, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingD...rowsPerPage=25

That link leads to some fascinating facts.

Must Spread Rep, DHWS!

LonghornDub · 04-13-2014, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

I did not list only 2nd options on that list, that was not my intention, sorry if it was not clear. In my first pharagraph i talked about 2nd options, then i listed every name on good teams that averaged around that PPG, and a couple more who had good seasons. It was a first draft. With around that salary, i don't think i find many players who i'd rather have. I mean, i could find many, just not guards.

As you post more, it sounds like you and I mostly agree in that I'd rather have a legitimate defensive big (say, Noah) than Monta. But I still think Monta is a great offensive player, I don't think he's anywhere near just "average."

Underdog · 04-13-2014, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-Man

Where is the advanced stat about how Monta drives to the basket more than just about anyone in the NBA? Its not measured in TS%, but it has made a hell of a difference it the stat I care about most-wins and losses. The major difference in this years Mavs and last years is that we finally have someone who can break down defenses. It does lead to more turnover, but it also leads to more wide open shots for team mates, more trips to the line, more hockey assists. Could OJ Mayo do that? If he could, he'd still be here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingD...rowsPerPage=25

Wow, 57 more drives than the next-highest guy... I don't think we've had a player who even looked to get to the hoop since Devin Harris's first stint with the Mavs, and even he didn't drive as well/often Monta does - he's scoring 7.3 out of his 19 PPG at the rim.

G-Man · 04-14-2014, 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Wow, 57 more drives than the next-highest guy... I don't think we've had a player who even looked to get to the hoop since Devin Harris's first stint with the Mavs, and even he didn't drive as well/often Monta does - he's scoring 7.3 out of his 19 PPG at the rim.

Not only that, he leads the NBA in points per games off his drives. The team gets 15.5 points per game off Monta's drives. 7 he scores..the rest come from the other players he assists. And that doesn't count the havoc it wreaks on defenses that may lead to an open shot 3 or 4 passes down the line.

1st in the NBA is pretty far above average, wouldn't you say?

Murphy3 · 04-14-2014, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Of course you're comparing the 49-32 Mavericks to the 37-43 Hawks - you have your own definitions for what words mean now... Everybody except for you would consider a "treadmill team" to be the ones that continually miss the playoffs, but don't get top lotto picks either. Basically, it's the teams stuck in the middle of the pack - 9 out of 30 is not the middle.

Actually no, many people consider a treadmill team that just misses or just makes the playoffs. You're not legitimately good enough to compete for a title and you're not bad enough to get a really good draft pick.

Murphy3 · 04-14-2014, 08:54 AM

It's difficult to say how Ellis stacks up against some of the other 2nd options in the league. How much of an impact would playing along Dirk have many of those guys? How much more efficient would they be able to play in the same lineup as Dirk?

But, what we do know is that the Mavs have a legitimate good second option now. He is a bit out of control at times and he can be a white knuckle ride towards the end of games... but, he's at least a solid piece for the Mavs moving forward.

TripleDipping · 04-14-2014, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Rewatching the game, and every single time there is a timeout on the floor, Dejuan Blair is the first guy out there slapping everyone coming back to the bench.

On cheeks, or butt cheeks? I take slapping quite differently under those 2 circumstances.

EricaLubarsky · 04-14-2014, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Wow, 57 more drives than the next-highest guy... I don't think we've had a player who even looked to get to the hoop since Devin Harris's first stint with the Mavs, and even he didn't drive as well/often Monta does - he's scoring 7.3 out of his 19 PPG at the rim.

If he got the respect of a Westbrook, he'd be one of the top players in the league.

Murphy3 · 04-14-2014, 12:14 PM

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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

If he got the respect of a Westbrook, he'd be one of the top players in the league.

Tap the breaks on that one...

Underdog · 04-14-2014, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Actually no, many people consider a treadmill team that just misses or just makes the playoffs. You're not legitimately good enough to compete for a title and you're not bad enough to get a really good draft pick.

Well, the part that everybody seems to be missing in regards to the Mavericks is the "treadmill" part - that indicates a cyclical nature, which means you have to string together several seasons of mediocrity. We're not far enough removed from our title to qualify - yet.

This article defines three different levels of treadmill teams - strict, moderate and expanded... With "expanded mediocrity" being the only one that Dallas could technically qualify for, seeing as how our regular season record has been either obviously good or obviously bad since the lotto was implemented in 84-85. Because unlike some, this author doesn't count playoff success - mostly due to outliers suchas the completely dominant 67-win Mavericks losing to Golden State in the 1st Round a few years back... He even has this to say:

Quote:

Expanded (30-49 wins)

- The only teams that have not been on the expanded treadmill during the Draft Lottery Era are the Mavericks, the Grizzlies and the Spurs. The expanded treadmill happens to almost everyone.

But I guess Mavs fans have stricter standards as to what constitutes "mediocrity" than most fanbases do... Winning can make spoiled brats of us all.