2024 Playoffs Rd 1 Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers

[blessednegr0]

Kawhi ruled out now. Interesting.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

It is weird how we're stuck in this void of the unknown. Like, I feel like we could lose by 30 or win by 20. Or go into overtime. Legit no idea what to expect.

But we need other guys to step up on offense. That is essential.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

It is weird how we're stuck in this void of the unknown. Like, I feel like we could lose by 30 or win by 20. Or go into overtime. Legit no idea what to expect.

But we need other guys to step up on offense. That is essential.

Idk what to expect either. Hurt Luka is so bad for us. If i had to bet my own money, Id bet that we can't overcome limping Luka 1v1 defense in iso AND the crowd. I saw nothing that makes me confodent that they wont just easily get PG or JH switch to Luka and just hammer it down the stretch

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

"winning attitude" good grief. That just sounds like passive aggressive nonsensical Luka hate.

Nobody wants to win more than Luka.

Winning attitude means being able to control your emotions in close playoff games and playing through adversity when things don't go your way.

Jokic unlike Luka won't risk getting a tech in crucial game or situation

Jokic will run back on defense with his teammates and not spend the entire possession barking at the refs

That's what I meant by winning attitude

People think I hate Luka which is not true

I just don't agree with his actions most of the time when it comes to the refs. The playoffs are physical and sinetimes you just have to move on to the next Plsy and I think we all can agree that jokic does a far better job of that then Luka.

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Idk what to expect either. Hurt Luka is so bad for us. If i had to bet my own money, Id bet that we can't overcome limping Luka 1v1 defense in iso AND the crowd. I saw nothing that makes me confodent that they wont just easily get PG or JH switch to Luka and just hammer it down the stretch

I believe the extra day off will actually help him.

Listening to interview after that game 4 he seemed humbled about not matching the production of Kyrie.

He's do for a breakout game in terms of efficiency. I think he will adjust and shoot less 3's which should help him shoot much better overall.

Would love to more mid post or low post plays by him vs Harden, Coffey or Mann because none of them can slow him him down if he's posting up more

[EricaLubarsky]

HISTORICAL ODDS
Before series in a 4-5 matchup (0-0) - 50% of winning best of 7 (14-14)
After game 1 - (0-1) - 14.6% of winning the series (55-321)
After game 2 - (1-1) - 45% of winning series (212-254)
After game 3 - (2-1) - 73.3% of the time (162-59)
After game 4 - (2-2) - 50% of the time (230-229)

Teams that win Game 5 of a 2-2 best-of-seven series go on to win the series 82.8% of the time (164-34)



LUKA-ERA HISTORY OF GAME 5s
2022 - JAZZ - Mavs went 2-2 - Won game 5 and finished the Jazz in 6
2021 - CLIPPERS - Mavs went 2-2 - Won game 5 and lost games 6/7
2020 - CLIPPERS - Mavs went 2-2 - Lost game 5 and the series in 6

Mavs 1-1 in game fives against the Clippers (but 0-2 in the series)

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Well the Cavs/Magic game 5 was decided by 1 point.

My current guess is tonight's game will be similar if not OT.

Love seeing the fight of the Sixers and Bucks. Mavs need that fight tonight...to the end!

[purplefrog]

Hard to say to much with such a small sample size, but it seems to me that the Clippers' 3pt shooting percentage is the best predictor of success. This is especially true if you look at the support players (Mann, Coffey, Westbrook, Hyland). In the "Mavs win" games, that group was 2-6 and 0-9. In the "Clippers win" games the same group is 7-11 and 4-9 from 3pt. Maybe that should be a focus for game 5. You might not be able to stop PG or Harden when they are hot, but the rest of the team seems to be another story.

[Melonhead]

Yeah Luka is fucked. The quotes today are not good.

He said his knee is not good. And he would not be playing if it wasn?t playoffs.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Don't be such a downer. He still gave us 29/10/10 on a bad knee.

Every player is dealing with something. NBA life isn't fair.

Kidd said Luka looked good in practice, so what can you do?

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Don't be such a downer. He still gave us 29/10/10 on a bad knee.

Every player is dealing with something. NBA life isn't fair.

Kidd said Luka looked good in practice, so what can you do?

This.

Also in the clip Luka totally laughed it off. He's not saying this with his head in his hands crying. He was being playful.

Now we need a win tonight, but I'm not going to say the Mavs are done yet.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by purplefrog

Hard to say to much with such a small sample size, but it seems to me that the Clippers' 3pt shooting percentage is the best predictor of success. This is especially true if you look at the support players (Mann, Coffey, Westbrook, Hyland). In the "Mavs win" games, that group was 2-6 and 0-9. In the "Clippers win" games the same group is 7-11 and 4-9 from 3pt. Maybe that should be a focus for game 5. You might not be able to stop PG or Harden when they are hot, but the rest of the team seems to be another story.

Gawd if I see another made 3 from one of these scrubs...seriously though, they should regress to some mean or at least lower than what they've been hitting. I'd also argue that Harden and George are shooting it better than their season averages and should come back down to earth a little bit. Though the latter is just simply that good, can't do much about his corner 3 the other night.

I think we see a different Clippers team. They played freely in games 1 and 4 due to Kawhi out. I chalk that up to tempo and pace along with them hitting an ungodly amount of threes. I know we jest about J Kidd and coaching. It will be painfully obvious that a new HC will be necessary if they cannot adjust to the Kawhi-less Clippers and get the dub tonight.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by saclare

Gawd if I see another made 3 from one of these scrubs...seriously though, they should regress to some mean or at least lower than what they've been hitting. I'd also argue that Harden and George are shooting it better than their season averages and should come back down to earth a little bit. Though the latter is just simply that good, can't do much about his corner 3 the other night.

I think we see a different Clippers team. They played freely in games 1 and 4 due to Kawhi out. I chalk that up to tempo and pace along with them hitting an ungodly amount of threes. I know we jest about J Kidd and coaching. It will be painfully obvious that a new HC will be necessary if they cannot adjust to the Kawhi-less Clippers and get the dub tonight.

I agree with the new HC part but I still think we are missing a 2 way piece to the puzzle.

Theres always going to be an athletic scorer with size or 2 that you have to defend on the road to a chip. That person also has to dribble and score on the other end. We still dont have it.

Maybe a top coach could get us there as built but i doubt it. In the mean time, I think we need a few more weeks of answered prayers to even come close.

[Dallas41]

I got good feeling because it's not a Sunday afternoon game .

Mavs should be well rested and ready to go

I think Gafford delivers his best game of the series tonight

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I got good feeling because it's not a Sunday afternoon game .

Mavs should be well rested and ready to go

I think Gafford delivers his best game of the series tonight

This is the Dallas41 I like to see.

I'm not gonna sweat it either way. This series likely goes 7 games. And we know what game 7 Luka is like...

[ShaggyDirk]

Let's beat the ever living you know what out of the clips! Kyrie - take us back home with a dub!!

If we make it to the next round, I get to go to one of the games! Let's Go!!!

[Melonhead]

Jason Kidd on Luka Doncic: ?He said he was gonna give it a shot, and we?ll figure out how to get him rest at timeouts and then trying to maybe get him in a little earlier than normal. Hopefully he?s feeling better, and we?ll see how he feels as the game goes on.?

Nothing negative saying Luka might be Fd it?s being realistic. The others gotta step up. Dante Exum has to make an impact.

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

This is the Dallas41 I like to see.

I'm not gonna sweat it either way. This series likely goes 7 games. And we know what game 7 Luka is like...

If we get efficient Luka I think mavs can put them away in 6

The best way to help that knee is let kyrie be primary ball handler use Luka off ball more and also utilize him in the mid post to take advantage of his size

[EricaLubarsky]

Luka is an absolute baller in elimination games. 35-10-8 on 48/37% shooting splits.

That said, this isn't a healthy Luka. His knee is really bothering him and he's still huffing from congestion/respiratory stuff. Luka is a shell of what he was in those other games. As much as I believe in Luka, we can't let this get to elimination (3-2 or 3-3).

What we need tonight is the same solid D we've seen in the last 25 games and we need other guys to step up. The NBA is stupid now, and if teams make threes with 20 seconds on the shot clock, there's really nothing you can do as a defense, but if the Clippers aren't red-hot, we dig deep, defend, rebound, and gut it out, I think we can come away with a nice win. I don't think we'll see another 50pt triple-double from Luka this playoffs, given how beaten up and spent he is based on what he had to do this season. Luckily, I don't think we will have to.

Then again, Clips shot 50% in game one and 62% in game four. If they have another game like that, Kidd won't be able to do anything and we are in real trouble. The NBA is unpredictable as hell.

[FreshJive]

Let?s go Kyrie!

[blessednegr0]

Here we go boys. Must win game for us in my opinion.

[EricaLubarsky]

Luka is now shooting 13-50 on threes in the playoffs. 26% on them and shooting 12.3 a game. If he shot even 30% (he was 35% on the season) we'd have swept the Clippers.

Crazy.

[EricaLubarsky]

spazzy move, but NOT an offensive foul. These refs are so weirdly inconsistent.

[BPo001]

Offensive foul on Lively? wtf?

[JTmoney2424]

How in the world is that a foul on Lively? Challenge that

[EricaLubarsky]

Harden is a fucking manbaby with no chin who the refs fellate.

[Melonhead]

Fucking horse shit

[EricaLubarsky]

F--- the refs
F--k Harden
F-- this

Now we have no challenge and the refs gonna serve up the same brand of anti-Mavs bias for the next 42 minutes and we have no response.

[EricaLubarsky]

Luka 13-51
(25%)

[Melonhead]

How the fuck have they not figured out how to defend Zubac yet, like at least a little bit

[BPo001]

Once again Luka gets Zubac on him and settles for a 3

[JTmoney2424]

I still think that?s a BS job by the refs to not overturn that. Totally screws Dallas the rest of the game now.

[Melonhead]

The 3s just aren?t happening. He has zero lift, less than his 0.5 inch lift.

Nice to see everyone getting involved though. Lively DJJ and PJ active

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by BPo001

Once again Luka gets Zubac on him and settles for a 3

If he was healthy, he'd be 7-9 on threes against him. I don't think anyone gets cooked as bad by Luka as Zubac.

Crazy how shitty Luka's shooting has been. From 37% to 25%. He's not even getting defended well. He's just injured and missing shots.

He shoots even 30% on threes and we would have swept them 4-0. Crazy how bad that statistical swing is

[JTmoney2424]

Of all people, Jones is the one to hit the first 3.

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

How the fuck have they not figured out how to defend Zubac yet, like at least a little bit

It?s pretty insane considering we have 2 legit bigs to throw at him.

[EricaLubarsky]

I love my Mavs, but watching the Clippers makes my eyes bleed.

[EricaLubarsky]

I never want to see Harden jack step back threes ever again.

[EricaLubarsky]

Mavs 17% on threes
Lukai 0% on threes

I honestly don't get how we can be this bad after being pretty good

[EricaLubarsky]

Clippers 60% on threes.

This sure feels like another one of those losses.