Poll: What Mavs through the end of Calendar year will signify the team is in serious trouble? - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

LRB · 12-08-2003, 02:36 PM

The Mavs have 10 more games through the end of the calendar year which will leave them at an even 30. So Far we're 13-7. We're 11-1 at home and 2-6 on the road. We have 6 road games and 4 home games remaining. We 1 one back to back set of games. We play some of the toughest teams in the WC on the road including the Lakers, Kings, TWolves, and Blazers.

Or remaining schedule is as follows:

Date Opponent Home/Road

10 Clippers Road
12 Lakers Road
15 Raptors Home
17 Celtics Road
18 TWolves Road
20 Clippers Home
23 Blazers Road
25 Kings Road
27 Grizz Home
30 Bucks Home

We'll still have 2 more home games in our 1st 30 than away games, which means that it will be tough as we go on. Personally with our play of late I would expect us to go 5 and 5 or at best 6 and 4. If we can improve our road play we can do even better. However, if we slip up at home we could do much worse.

I wanted to know what if any record the Mavs could have after 30 games that you'd deem this team to be inserious trouble.

I go with anything less than 17 and 13.

Mavs Rule · 12-08-2003, 02:48 PM

I guess we think alike. I went with 17-13 also. With so many road games coming up, anything under that percentage would put us in danger of being where we need to be at the end of the season to get HCA in the second round.

grndmstr_c · 12-08-2003, 03:04 PM

I said 18-12 would be serious trouble, but I'd be very disappointed if we were any worse than 19-11 at the end of the year. 4 very tough road games, and 6 other games we have no business losing (outside of the injury bug biting). Not sure if the team is ready yet, but I'd like to see us at least split the 4 biggies, and sweep the rest.

EricaLubarsky · 12-08-2003, 03:13 PM

we need to fair better than the Spurs...

if we drop 10 in a row but are consistently working on something like rebounding, slashing, defense, etc for the playoffs then I dont think I would mind too much

ames7 · 12-08-2003, 03:21 PM

I said 18-12 but it would really depend on who we lost to. If it's the Clips at home, I would take that as an indication of trouble. If it's the Lakers in LA, well... It's really hard to imagine the team taking a serious nosedive at this point, but they do have to find their identity on the road. In any case, they can't be worse than the Stars are at this point. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-disgusted.gif[/img]

LRB · 12-08-2003, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: EricaLubarsky
we need to fair better than the Spurs...

if we drop 10 in a row but are consistently working on something like rebounding, slashing, defense, etc then I dont think I would mind too much

You are cetainly more patient than I. But Erica, with 52 games in 2004, and 27 of those being on the road vs. 25 at home, wouldn't you be just a little worried about the Mavs getting HCA in the 1st round if not making the playoffs at all? I mean if we're doing all the things that you suggested, what will turn it around for us? To win 50 or more games for the year we would have to go from a winning percentage of 43.3% for the 1st 30 games to on of 71% for last 52. Just to finish above .500 (42 or more wins) we'd have to improve to 55.8% winning over the last 52 games. So without changing team composition, what would key our turnaround?

BTW last year the Mavs had the best regular season winning percentage ever of 73.2%. I don't see HCA going for more for less than 50 wins if that in the 1st round. So how would we recover. I'm just curious.

FilthyFinMavs · 12-08-2003, 03:44 PM

I think we all take this whole chemistry thing lightly because of the rise of the Lakers but when you look at the rankings in the West the superior Western teams are struggling. Those are the teams who made some key additions in the Mavs, Kings, and Spurs. The Lakers are the exception. And to make things worse we had Dirk go down with an injury so I think that little bit fo chemistry we did have sort of went down a bit. I th ink we just have to be a little patietn these next couple of months. I don't see us struggling at home however the road is going to be tricky. I will say this we will not be losing to teams like the Wiz on the road anymore. I just anything less then 18-12

EricaLubarsky · 12-08-2003, 03:53 PM

who actually believes that the Mavs will miss the playoffs?

All we need is to win about 30-some games

And who says HCA is necessary to get out of the first round? Last year we lost to the Spurs at home and had a winning record in San Antonio

I think we will have more than 19 wins before the new year- I just dont think dropping a few games in the first half of the season makes that big of a difference if we are working toward team chemistry.

bernardos70 · 12-08-2003, 03:59 PM

I say 18-12 is tolerable, anything less would indicate this team is in trouble as far as seeding goes.

Mavs Rule · 12-08-2003, 03:59 PM

HCA is not just about who has most of their games at home. You also have to consider how it will determine WHO we play. No one wants to play the lakers or the kings at their home in the first round.

EricaLubarsky · 12-08-2003, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: Mavs Rule
HCA is not just about who has most of their games at home. You also have to consider how it will determine WHO we play. No one wants to play the lakers or the kings at their home in the first round.

we arent going to be 8th seed and have to play the Lakers. Let the Lakers and Sacramento take 1 and 2 seeds. If we are 3-6 who cares? It would be nice to be first seed and play Utah, Denver, GS or Phoenix but that doesnt look like it is going to happen. I would be happy with 3-6 even though I would be surprised if we are any lower than 4

Psychedelic Fuzz · 12-08-2003, 04:23 PM

We'll probably win the division and be a 2 seed, but I wouldn't be upset with a 3 or 4. I just don't want a repeat of last year's playoffs and the risk of Nash (or anyone else for that matter) running out of gas in a round 1 6 or 7 game series

LRB · 12-08-2003, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: EricaLubarsky
who actually believes that the Mavs will miss the playoffs?

All we need is to win about 30-some games

And who says HCA is necessary to get out of the first round? Last year we lost to the Spurs at home and had a winning record in San Antonio

I think we will have more than 19 wins before the new year- I just dont think dropping a few games in the first half of the season makes that big of a difference if we are working toward team chemistry.

I don't think we'll miss the playoffs, but I also don't think that we lose 10 in a row. But if we lose 10 in a row, I definitely start considering missing the playoffs. Why? Because we probably would need to win 62% of our remaining games just to make the 8th seed and that wouldn't guarrantee anything. Any injury, like Fin's last year, would be a death blow to our playoff hopes. The West is better and deeper this year and we're playing like crap on the road.

Erica, you still haven't answered how we can go from playing hard, rebounding, playing D, and losing 10 in a row and being well under .500 for our 1st 30 games to winning well over 60%. So what would be our magic forumla to rasise our winning percentage 20 points? Even at our current winning percentage, it's doubtful that we'd get HCA in the 1st round and almost assuredly we wouldn't get it in the 2nd round. So we're looking at either a 1st or 2nd round series vs. the Lakers with them having HCA. The best case scenario would probably be facing the Faker sin the 2nd round.

We have some room to play with because the season is still young, but if we go on a major losing streak like 10 games, I don't see how we're not in real trouble. I wouldn't be surprised if it wouldn't take 47+ wins to make the playoffs this year. It's possible it could even be lower than last year, but do we want to bet our season on it? Let's say it's 47 to be assured of just getting the 8th spot. We would have to win 34 out of 52 or 65.4% over the last 52. Certainly it's possible for this team, but why would it be probable if we're 13-17 after 30 games?

Chiwas · 12-08-2003, 04:51 PM

If we win against Lakers, Wolves and Kings, I wouldn't mind to be 16-14.

If we lose against those teams -even being on the road- and win the other 7, finishing with 20-10, I won't be any happy.

Shaq Attack2 · 12-08-2003, 05:12 PM

Anything less than 17-13. HCA will be very very difficult with 13 losses and 52 games left in the season.

LRB · 12-08-2003, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: Chiwas
If we win against Lakers, Wolves and Kings, I wouldn't mind to be 16-14.

If we lose against those teams -even being on the road- and win the other 7, finishing with 20-10, I won't be any happy.

Chiwas each of those games will be especially difficult. All will be on the road were we're only winning 25% of our games so far. In addition:

1. Lakers - we'll either be w/o Dirk or just getting a rusty Dirk back. Not to mention the single longest losing streak on an opponent's home floor in the NBA. Top it with Nellie's attitude towards the Lakers and this one will take a miracle and a half for us to pull off.

2. TWolves - will be on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. We stink both on the road and in back-to-backs. This one will be incredibly tough to pull off. It's likely dirk will still be sporting some major rust in this game as well. This one is a lot more possible than the one against the Lakers, but I'd make the TPuppies a serious favorite.

3. Kings - One of the hardest places to win on the road in the NBA. We get to try it on Christmas day. Probably best chance of the three but still not a good one. The Kings should be especially up for this game. The Mavs have a history of not showing up for these types of games.

I'm estatic if we go 1 and 3 against these opponents. If we go 2 and 3 I'll probably wet my pants. If we go 3 and 3, well I might start looking for the 2nd coming to happen any day.

Chiwas · 12-08-2003, 06:49 PM

LRB, I'll think the Mavs are in serious problems if they don't compete at the same level with those 3 teams. Okey, it's very probable that the Mavs lose those games, 2 of them at least, but if they play and fight with ambition, order and talent till the last second, I'll be happy regardles of the W-L record.

I think is not a matter of wins ans losses, besides, we won more than anybody last season.

It's a matter of being the best or the second best (the Lakers are a bigger exception this year).

LRB · 12-08-2003, 07:10 PM

We'll play and fight hard Chiwas but when you start a 6'3", 6'2", 6'7", 6'9",6'8" team against a 6'4", 6'7", 6'8", 6'9", 7'2" team you're giving a heigh mismatch at 4 out of 5 positions and only breaking even on one. When the other team already kills you inside without the height mismatchs, isn't bothered at all by you going small, and outrebounds you without breaking a sweat. Well what do you expect. The players will try hard. Nellie just won't put them in the best positions to win. Soon they come to expect this from their coach. They see that he's already given up, and is working against them. Few players can continue on with maximum efforts then. Usually you need a new coach.

Eventually Nellie will go and we'll have a chance to compete for a championship. Of course we might get lucky and shaq might break a leg. Of course we'd need several more key injuries on other teams as well.

I think that we've see the Mavs peak under Nellie. It's all downhill from now on.

dude1394 · 12-08-2003, 09:22 PM

I think if they go less than 6-4 I'll be dissapointed, but that could happen. Some tough away games.

LRB · 12-11-2003, 07:48 PM

Looks bad for the Mavs. We lose the easiest road game of the six. Things only get worse for us from now until New Years on the road. My how the mighty have fallen. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-disgusted.gif[/img]

LRB · 12-13-2003, 10:53 AM

Talk about bouncing high after a big fall. If losing to the Clippers was like falling off a 10 story building, then beating the Fakers in LA was like jumping over the moon!!! Let's hope the Mavs can take this game to build some real momentum and get back to our winning ways on the road.

MikeB · 12-19-2003, 01:46 AM

18 - 12 was the predominant answer. We are sitting at 15-10 with 5 to go. 3 at home and 2 on the road.
Will we make it to 18-12?

LRB · 12-19-2003, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by: MikeB
18 - 12 was the predominant answer. We are sitting at 15-10 with 5 to go. 3 at home and 2 on the road.
Will we make it to 18-12?

Since we need to win 3 to get there and we have 3 home games remaining, the odds are in our favor. But the odds say we'll probably only get the 3 wins also.

Drbio · 12-19-2003, 02:18 PM

The more important question is "Will this team come together as one by the end of the season?" I don't care how many wins they have as long as they are hitting their stride entering the playoffs. The Mavs have taken one step forward and then two steps back it seems lately.

LRB · 12-19-2003, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: Drbio
The more important question is "Will this team come together as one by the end of the season?" I don't care how many wins they have as long as they are hitting their stride entering the playoffs. The Mavs have taken one step forward and then two steps back it seems lately.

Doc the way we're playing now, if we won enough games to have HCA through the playoffs we might have a hope. With some improvement we might have a very good shot. However if we have to win a series without HCA then this team looks like they have a looooooooooooooong way togo. So I say that our record in reqards to HCA will determine how far this team has to go.

Since it looks highly doubtful that we'll have HCA in the Western Confernce past the 2nd round and very possibly not even that far, I think this team really needs to focus on getting this road gorilla off our backs. We need to be playing excellent at home and on the road come the end of the season. And along the way we better make sure we don't screw up and find ourselves as the 9th seed in the West.

LRB · 12-20-2003, 11:16 PM

Tonight's loss really hurt us. We have to win 3 out of 4 just to get to 18 - 12. Now we're struggling at home as well as away that is going to be real tough.

OutletPass · 12-26-2003, 03:52 AM

let's revisit this thread...after a xmas day win at Sac.

There's just NO way to be 18-12 which seems to be the consensus. We can get to 17-13 with a bit of the old carryover. At any rate, the Mavs are 16-13 as of tonight. And still on track for a 45-37 record. That's the math. 15-14 would have looked a lot worse...by the math. While it was a fun game to win, and gives our guys wins over the best in the West, we're going to crawling around to be the #5 seed without a 5.

It could change for the better; we might have Fin and Dirk get healthy; but without a 5 and with The volume shooter..Walker stalling us into the halfcourt Leastern Confernce game...We'll get exactly what we have. 45-50 wins and the first dropback in the last 4 years. Retarded progress. Yes, it is.

Would anyone like to change their predictions ?

To get 50 wins; our guys have to go 34- 19.
To get 55 wins; our guys have to go 39-14.
To get 60 wins; our guys have to go 44-9.

To get 45 wins and 37 losses, our guys have to go....29 and 24 from here.

So, What's your best bet ? 29 -24 or 34-19 or 39-14.

Sober up. !!!!!!

MikeB · 12-26-2003, 04:30 AM

Actually we are at 16-12 with 2 home games to go within the poll's time frame. 18-12 is still a real possibility with Memphis and Milwaukee coming to town.

Quote:

We'll get exactly what we have.
45-50 wins and the first dropback in the last 4 years
Retarded progress. Yes, it is

I agree that we will get what we have and deserve OP. I can tell you are not a big fan of Walker and I can understand but he is much better than Raef who we traded for him. We need a couple of BIG bodies to clog up the paint and block out their men and we will be fine....possibly even better than last year(If Dirk plays up to his normal game). We really miss Bradley and while Fortson is a robo rebounder on the offensive end he is not a great defensive rebounder in the zone nor is he a shot blocker which allows other teams to go inside without fear. We have the opportunity to be similar to last years Spurs....get hot after the first of the year and stay that way. It looks like this team no longer fears the unholy trinity of Lakers, Spurs, & Kings. This is a very good sign. Once we are able to sign 10 day contracts I hope that there will be several big bodies brought in for a trial period and we are able to get some decent play from one of them. I also would like to see us go ahead and trade Best if the Clippers are actually interested for Ely who would be a serious help. We will only have retarded progress if we are not ready for the playoffs....I believe we will be ready...with the minor changes mentioned...to go even deeper in this season.

LRB · 12-30-2003, 11:06 PM

Well we made it to 18-12, not the way I thought we would. We had big wins at LA and Sacramento, but lost to the Clippers twice. We ended the year with a 3 game winning streak that followed our 1st 4 game losing streak in over 3 years. Let's hope that we can keep this win streak alive well into next year.

ames7 · 12-30-2003, 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: ames7
I said 18-12 but it would really depend on who we lost to. If it's the Clips at home, I would take that as an indication of trouble. If it's the Lakers in LA, well...

I stand by this. Losses to the Clippers are alarming in any situation, but at home? I feel better the way things are going now, but consecutive blown double-digit leads in the second half are also cause for concern. This team took a lot longer than I thought they would to develop anything resembling an identity.

LoveMyMavs14 · 12-31-2003, 12:21 AM

It's still progress. Remember the blown lead against the Clips? They lost that game. At least now they're holding on at the end to win. Last game they actually got up 4. Tonight they let them get close, but not even tie it. Next step is keeping the lead in double digits.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

bernardos70 · 12-31-2003, 06:35 PM

18-12 is tolerable.... so it turns out we are 18-12 now [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img] Only if this was a prediction contest, dang.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img] We have a real chance to pick up some steam and stay on the W column for a while. Next, we have Milwaukee, T-pups in the AAC, Utah in Utah, Golden State in Dallas..... we should be able to have a winning streak going.