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03-15-2022, 08:32 PM
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#1 | |
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Golden Member
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,802
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Quote:
what is defensive rating calculated based off of? is this considered a reliable metric? |
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03-15-2022, 09:13 PM
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#2 |
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Guru
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Arlington, TX
Posts: 13,149
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I have no idea. My son sent me the link.
It's probably bogus but its nice that Luka is playing D. I always thought that with his big body and savant intelligence that he should be at least average on D Last edited by MFFL; 03-15-2022 at 09:19 PM. |
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03-16-2022, 03:42 AM
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#3 | |
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Guru
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 10,377
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Quote:
Defensive Rating estimates how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions he individually faced while on the court. The core of the Defensive Rating calculation is the concept of the individual Defensive Stop. Stops take into account the instances of a player ending an opposing possession that are tracked in the boxscore (blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds), in addition to an estimate for the number of forced turnovers and forced misses by the player which aren't captured by steals and blocks. The formula for Stops is: Stops = Stops1 + Stops2 where: Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt) FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%) DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB) DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2 Also necessary is the calculation of Stop%, which is the rate at which a player forces a defensive stop as a percentage of individual possessions faced (essentially the inverse of Floor%, but for defenders): Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP) With those numbers in hand, individual Defensive Rating can be computed: DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating) where: Team_Defensive_Rating = 100 * (Opponent_PTS / Team_Possessions) D_Pts_per_ScPoss = Opponent_PTS / (Opponent_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2) * Opponent_FTA*0.4) As far as I know, it's a solid stat. Like any other stat, it's not at all definitive by itself, but as part of a bigger picture, it's reliable. So while I don't think we can take this to mean that Luka is now the best defensive PG in the league, we can take it to mean that his defense has improved by a lot. No doubt this is due to a combination of his improved conditioning, and an an overall increased focus on defense coming from the coaching. I don't think he'll ever be an elite defender, but you can see it with your eyes that he's more than serviceable on that end. He's extremely big and strong for a point guard, and his basketball IQ is through the roof. |
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03-16-2022, 08:14 AM
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#4 | |
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Golden Member
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,802
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Quote:
I wonder with this data if there’s a breakdown of who he was guarding… how often it was a pg, sg, sg, pf, or even C. Or perhaps just pg, wing, or big… Agree that the eye test shows good footwork and anticipation in cutting off drives, he’s very solid/thick too so if he beats you to the spot you’re not going to clear him out with a bump… I think we’ve seen him take pride in his defense too. When he makes a play there he’s just as excited and competitive as when he’s breaking ankles on offense. Could see that the other day when he was begging for a replay/challenge on that ball off the fingertips. He still seems to loaf a bit in close outs preferring to stay in position for rebounds but overall he’s clearly better on that side of the ball |
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