Official Playoff Seeding Watch - Page 2 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

BPo001 · 04-02-2022, 09:57 PM

GS came back to beat Utah.

blessednegr0 · 04-02-2022, 10:17 PM

I am pissed about this. How the hell Utah blow the game like that?

DevinHarriswillstart · 04-02-2022, 11:16 PM

Why be pissed? Jazz are a train wreck who blow big leads. Why would anyone not want to play them in the first round?

Dallas41 · 04-02-2022, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Why be pissed? Jazz are a train wreck who blow big leads. Why would anyone not want to play them in the first round?

Because Dallas can't beat them up in Utah and even then landing the 4th seed gets you Phoenix in the 2nd round as opposed to Memphis.

I'd rather see Golden St + Memphis as opposed to Utah + Phoenix

That reason alone IMO is why Dallas should be doing all they can to get that 3rd seed.

BPo001 · 04-03-2022, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

Because Dallas can't beat them up in Utah and even then landing the 4th seed gets you Phoenix in the 2nd round as opposed to Memphis.

I'd rather see Golden St + Memphis as opposed to Utah + Phoenix

That reason alone IMO is why Dallas should be doing all they can to get that 3rd seed.

Wouldn’t we play Denver (6 seed) and not Golden St if we got the 3 seed?

DevinHarriswillstart · 04-03-2022, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

Because Dallas can't beat them up in Utah and even then landing the 4th seed gets you Phoenix in the 2nd round as opposed to Memphis.

I'd rather see Golden St + Memphis as opposed to Utah + Phoenix

That reason alone IMO is why Dallas should be doing all they can to get that 3rd seed.

The Mavs have a good but not great team. If we beat the Jazz, then lost to Phoenix, then that is a very successful season. There is no way we beat a healthy Phx team.

There just isn't some "easy" path to the finals. Losing to Phx in the western finals versus the semi finals doesn't mean a whole lot to me. You still have to go through them.

Dallas41 · 04-03-2022, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BPo001

Wouldn’t we play Denver (6 seed) and not Golden St if we got the 3 seed?

Right now yes

But I think the most important thing is to get that 3rd seed and avoid Phoenix in the 2nd round.

If that happens IMO the Mavs chances of having a deep post season run increases big time.

Dallas41 · 04-03-2022, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

The Mavs have a good but not great team. If we beat the Jazz, then lost to Phoenix, then that is a very successful season. There is no way we beat a healthy Phx team.

There just isn't some "easy" path to the finals. Losing to Phx in the western finals versus the semi finals doesn't mean a whole lot to me. You still have to go through them.

Right but lets not forget Chris Paul usually gets injured in the playoffs.

The longer you can extend your post season run the better because you don't know what key injury could change things.

Last year we saw Giannis, Embid, Davis and Paul all suffer some kind of injury. Giannis did still win a title but my point is if the Mavs extend their playoff run who nows what might happen in a series later on.

Thespiralgoeson · 04-03-2022, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Losing to Phx in the western finals versus the semi finals doesn't mean a whole lot to me. You still have to go through them.

I actually think it means quite a bit. Getting to the conference finals is a big deal, and would be a tremendous feather in Luka's cap this early in his career. Dirk only made three conference finals his entire career.

Winning one playoff series and losing in the second round is a success. But winning to series and getting to the WCF is an absolute home run.

EricaLubarsky · 04-03-2022, 03:16 PM

If the Mavs can win one of their next three, they will guarantee HCA in at least round one of the playoffs.

Mavs/Warriors records where Mavs end up 3rd
Warriors 0-4 / Mavs 0-3
Warriors 1-3 / Mavs 1-2
Warriors 2-2 / Mavs 2-1
Warriors 3-1 / Mavs 3-0
If warriors can go 4-0, then there is no way to get 4th after the Wizards loss

Mavs remaining schedule (last 10)
@Pistons (4-6)
Blazers (1-9)
Spurs (6-4)
Total record 11-19 (.366)

Wars remaining schedule (last 10)
@Kings (5-5)
Lakers (2-8)
@Spurs (6-4)
@Pelicans (7-3)
Total record 20-20 (.500)

Dallas41 · 04-03-2022, 03:35 PM

I think the Spurs and Pelicans can beat the Warriors

But will Dallas show up vs Detroit and Portland

That's the mystery

EricaLubarsky · 04-03-2022, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I think the Spurs and Pelicans can beat the Warriors

But will Dallas show up vs Detroit and Portland

That's the mystery

It's funny, I'm excited that the Warriors are playing some hot teams

I'm actually scared that the last three games for the Mavs are against struggling teams

EricaLubarsky · 04-03-2022, 03:47 PM

Nuggets defense is really suspect

BPo001 · 04-03-2022, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I think the Spurs and Pelicans can beat the Warriors

But will Dallas show up vs Detroit and Portland

That's the mystery

If Curry comes back I don’t think either of those teams stand a chance.

Dallas41 · 04-03-2022, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BPo001

If Curry comes back I don’t think either of those teams stand a chance.

He's been ruled out til the playoffs

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...regular-season

BPo001 · 04-03-2022, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

He's been ruled out til the playoffs

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...regular-season

My fault. I thought you meant if GS met one of those 2 in the playoffs.

EricaLubarsky · 04-03-2022, 09:22 PM

We’ll Kings aren’t doing us any favors

EricaLubarsky · 04-03-2022, 09:31 PM

No Fox, no Sabonis, and Holmes is a child abuser so there’s your top three all out

DevinHarriswillstart · 04-03-2022, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

No Fox, no Sabonis, and Holmes is a child abuser so there’s your top three all out

So many Mavs fans drooled over Holmes too. Imagine getting him with our lovely recent history.

EricaLubarsky · 04-04-2022, 08:58 AM

If the Mavs can win one of their next three, they will guarantee HCA in at least round one of the playoffs.

Mavs/Warriors records where Mavs end up 3rd
Warriors 0-3 / Mavs 1-2
Warriors 1-2 / Mavs 2-1
Warriors 2-1 / Mavs 3-0
If warriors can go 3-0, then there is no way to get 4th after the Wizards loss

Mavs remaining schedule (last 10)
@Pistons (4-6)
Blazers (1-9)
Spurs (6-4)
Total record 11-19 (.366)

Wars remaining schedule (last 10)
Lakers (2-8)
@Spurs (6-4)
@Pelicans (7-3)
Total record 15-15 (.500)

Thespiralgoeson · 04-04-2022, 02:31 PM

Jokic last 7 games:

33.1 PPG
14.4 RPG
7.7 APG
2.1 SPG
70.6 FG%

No one has scored more points on 70% shooting over a 7-game span ever (yes, not even Wilt).

I'll take Utah over Denver, please.

Melonhead · 04-04-2022, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

Jokic last 7 games:

33.1 PPG
14.4 RPG
7.7 APG
2.1 SPG
70.6 FG%

No one has scored more points on 70% shooting over a 7-game span ever (yes, not even Wilt).

I'll take Utah over Denver, please.

I hope they slide to 6, have a feeling mavs get 3rd.

Side note, Mitchell passes to Gobert 2.3 times per game. Not assists, just passes in general. The relationship is deteriorating in real time even worse.

Dallas41 · 04-04-2022, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

Jokic last 7 games:

33.1 PPG
14.4 RPG
7.7 APG
2.1 SPG
70.6 FG%

No one has scored more points on 70% shooting over a 7-game span ever (yes, not even Wilt).

I'll take Utah over Denver, please.

I will say this as I mentioned before earlier in the thread.

Sure Jokic is going to get his but Luka cancels him out.

The advantage IMO for Dallas is that Luka supporting cast is better than Jokic's supporting cast.

Also I believe defensively Denver is the lowest rated defensive team amongst all playoff teams.

This is just my opinion but I believe they lack rim protection which bolds well for Dinwiddie, Brunson and Luka as opposed to Uah.

I think the Mavs offense has a better chance to perform at peak level vs Denver because they can get any shot they want vs the Nuggets.

Utah is more balanced team on both ends of the floor and sure they might be reeling right now but they've always caused the Mavs problems especially up in Utah. If they win a single vs Dallas on the road in that matchup I don't have any confidence that Dallas can beat them in Utah

That's not the case vs Denver. I believe the Mavs can win home or away vs them

But that's just my .02 cents

Thespiralgoeson · 04-04-2022, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I will say this as I mentioned before earlier in the thread.

Sure Jokic is going to get his but Luka cancels him out.

The advantage IMO for Dallas is that Luka supporting cast is better than Jokic's supporting cast.

Also I believe defensively Denver is the lowest rated defensive team amongst all playoff teams.

This is just my opinion but I believe they lack rim protection which bolds well for Dinwiddie, Brunson and Luka as opposed to Uah.

I think the Mavs offense has a better chance to perform at peak level vs Denver because they can get any shot they want vs the Nuggets.

Utah is more balanced team on both ends of the floor and sure they might be reeling right now but they've always caused the Mavs problems especially up in Utah. If they win a single vs Dallas on the road in that matchup I don't have any confidence that Dallas can beat them in Utah

That's not the case vs Denver. I believe the Mavs can win home or away vs them

But that's just my .02 cents

The thing is, I think in the NBA, offense generally wins out over defense, and one transcendent superstar generally wins out over "balance."

saclare · 04-05-2022, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

The thing is, I think in the NBA, offense generally wins out over defense, and one transcendent superstar generally wins out over "balance."

It can't be forgotten that defense tightens up in the playoffs and minutes for top players are expanded, though. If Gobert is healthy, along with a tough road environment, I still think I prefer Denver.

As to an earlier post concerning Mitchell's low passes to Gobert, that's insane. I think Mitchell is severely overrated. He's a good player with some good offensive chops, but if his 3 isn't falling he can be ghosted from a game plan fairly easily. He's also smaller than I thought despite a slightly thicker build up top which helps him on his drives. I think Gobert would thrive here. Defense and rebounding with some easy looks from Luka etc? Sign me up if there's trouble between the two.

SMC0007 · 04-05-2022, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

The thing is, I think in the NBA, offense generally wins out over defense, and one transcendent superstar generally wins out over "balance."

So since Luka would be the best player on the court at all times, we shouldn't have a problem with Denver.

Thespiralgoeson · 04-05-2022, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

So since Luka would be the best player on the court at all times, we shouldn't have a problem with Denver.

Jokic is at least as good as Luka. Honestly I think Jokic is the best player in the world right now.

I'm not scared of Denver. I think we could win. I just generally believe that superstars matter a lot more than depth.

EricaLubarsky · 04-05-2022, 10:58 AM

My question: Since winning one more game gets us guaranteed HCA and 3rd is looking more and more unlikely, do we

a) keep playing our best ball to the end and keep hopes alive for 3rd, regardless of whether or not we can secure it
b) Win against the Pistons to secure 4th, and then rest Luka for a week by sitting him for the final two games. Give him his best shot at having a healthy ankle for the playoffs.

3rd would obviously let us skip the Suns in round 2, but might not be possible. Normally it would also let us choose our opponent in the first round, but with the Nugs and Jazz playing leapfrog every other night, we may not know. We could exhaust ourselves getting 3rd to face the Jazz just to have the Nuggets fall to 6th.

SMC0007 · 04-05-2022, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

Jokic is at least as good as Luka. Honestly I think Jokic is the best player in the world right now.

I'm not scared of Denver. I think we could win. I just generally believe that superstars matter a lot more than depth.

I can respect that... Jokic is def close, he's so big and doesn't have to work as hard as Luka to generate his effectiveness/stats is what separates them ever so slightly for me.

I agree that superstars matter more than depth unless that superstars team is completely falling apart around him... like Lukas team has before. There's definitely some gray area between having slightly passable help and having actual quality depth. If I had to choose and I'm not able to pick GSW, I'd prefer to see Mavs vs Denver because Gobert is too mobile for my comfort. But also it would be a test of who gets more help, Luka or Jokic.

SMC0007 · 04-05-2022, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

My question: Since winning one more game gets us guaranteed HCA and 3rd is looking more and more unlikely, do we

a) keep playing our best ball to the end and keep hopes alive for 3rd, regardless of whether or not we can secure it
b) Win against the Pistons to secure 4th, and then rest Luka for a week by sitting him for the final two games. Give him his best shot at having a healthy ankle for the playoffs.

3rd would obviously let us skip the Suns in round 2, but might not be possible. Normally it would also let us choose our opponent in the first round, but with the Nugs and Jazz playing leapfrog every other night, we may not know. We could exhaust ourselves getting 3rd to face the Jazz just to have the Nuggets fall to 6th.

Go hard and keep momentum at all cost.

Thespiralgoeson · 04-05-2022, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

My question: Since winning one more game gets us guaranteed HCA and 3rd is looking more and more unlikely, do we

a) keep playing our best ball to the end and keep hopes alive for 3rd, regardless of whether or not we can secure it
b) Win against the Pistons to secure 4th, and then rest Luka for a week by sitting him for the final two games. Give him his best shot at having a healthy ankle for the playoffs.

3rd would obviously let us skip the Suns in round 2, but might not be possible. Normally it would also let us choose our opponent in the first round, but with the Nugs and Jazz playing leapfrog every other night, we may not know. We could exhaust ourselves getting 3rd to face the Jazz just to have the Nuggets fall to 6th.

If 3rd is even remotely possible, then you do everything you can to get that spot. Even if it's a hail mary, the slim chance at avoiding Phoenix in the 2nd round and getting a plausible path to the WCF is far more valuable than resting Luka for one game.

purplefrog · 04-05-2022, 12:55 PM

Mavs last game is April 10th and I believe the first playoff game will be April 16th. Plenty of time for Luka and others to rest. At the risk of stating the obvious.. while this team has shown glimpses of greatness, they also seem prone to not showing up on occasion. I think they have to work on psychologically getting up for every game and staying sharp. I'm a bit worried they come out of the 5-day break rusty, so I wouldn't extend it any by resting Luka or any of the starters. Unless of course, they are walking wounded. Play every game like it is a playoff game. Go into the playoffs on an impressive win streak. I've never liked the idea of relatively healthy players sitting a game right before the playoffs begin.

saclare · 04-05-2022, 01:56 PM

You play to win the game

Dallas41 · 04-05-2022, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

If 3rd is even remotely possible, then you do everything you can to get that spot. Even if it's a hail mary, the slim chance at avoiding Phoenix in the 2nd round and getting a plausible path to the WCF is far more valuable than resting Luka for one game.

100% agree here

In fact it seems like some of the media believe the Mavs are a Darkhorse favorite to get to the WCF's if they can get that 3rd seed and avoid Phoenix.

Tim Legler, Jalen Rose and Magic Johnson all believe that Phoenix might be the only team that Dallas couldn't advance past.

So, if I'm Kidd and that 3rd seed is still there for the taking I say go for it.

EricaLubarsky · 04-05-2022, 09:05 PM

Spurs are murdering the Nuggets

Mavs gotta end the season with them

EricaLubarsky · 04-05-2022, 10:39 PM

Love the Grizz and Jazz going extra innings too

EricaLubarsky · 04-05-2022, 10:48 PM

No Ja and it took extra innings for the Jazz

purplefrog · 04-06-2022, 10:53 AM

If the Mavs and Jazz have the same record, who gets the tiebreaker? Series was 2-2, but Mavs have the better Conference record. Jazz have a better division record.

DevinHarriswillstart · 04-06-2022, 10:57 AM

If the Jazz win their division, then they win the tiebreaker I believe.

EricaLubarsky · 04-06-2022, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

If the Jazz win their division, then they win the tiebreaker I believe.

Quote:

1. Better record in head-to-head games
2. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
3. Higher winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed

1) 2-2 (we won last 2 matchups, but tied the season series) so it goes to #2
2) Division winner - would go to Utah. We cannot win our division because of the Grizz

So yeah, if Jazz tie us, we lose the tie. We're two games up, but there's still a statistical possibility with three games left.

How that happens
Jazz go 3-0 and Mavs go 1-2
Jazz go 2-1 and Mavs go 0-3

Number of Mavs wins/Jazz losses is 2.

Mavs schedule
Pistons - bad, but Mavs keep getting blown out by bad teams. Statistically eliminated from the playoffs so they have nothing to play for. Will they tank for picks or will they play like they have nothing to lose?
Blazers - same. Blazers are eliminated from POs and PI
Spurs - locked into the PI and they are beasting. 7-1 in last 8 including wins against the Nuggets and Warriors.

Jazz schedule
Thunder - eliminated from PI/POs
Suns - beast mode, but they're locked into #1 and nothing can change it. They're alternating rest games.
Blazers - eliminated from PI/POs