When should this move had been made? - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

Murphy3 · 03-22-2005, 01:32 PM

It looks like most people are in agreeance that the coaching change was a good thing. My question is this: When? When do you think this move should have been made and why?

For me personally, I can honestly say that Nellie needed to go sometime during last season. His use of Walker and misuse of Dirk pushed me over the edge. I'd never been a huge fan of Nellie the coach, but I've always appreciated what he had accomplished here in Dallas. But, I honestly believe that he delayed Dirk's career by at least a year by making him take a back seat to Walker. Obviously, there's a hole in my opinion. Who would have coached? So, maybe during the season wasn't a possibility.

Hey, that's just my humble opinion. When and why do you think this move should have been made?

aexchange · 03-22-2005, 01:34 PM

i think now is the best time to have made the move. there are plenty of good coaching candidates available this off season should the experiment with AJ be a failure.

last yr wasnt an option, not b/c nellie was doing a great job, but just b/c there were a lack of better alternatives. this off season you have flip, phil jackson, larry brown, mo cheeks, etc.

Psychedelic Fuzz · 03-22-2005, 01:39 PM

Right when it was.

We can talk in the hypothetical about when Nellie should have been gone or what moves should or should not have been made, but if not for the assemblage of ill-fitting pieces we traded off over the last off season, this team would look completely different right now.
Not to mention the fact that AJ probably wouldn't be here.

I think Nellie realized that
a. He was no longer able to take the stress of fully investing himself in this team
and
b. that AJ could very well be the final piece of the puzzle...and that Nellie will still get credit for putting it together.

Murphy3 · 03-22-2005, 01:45 PM

Maybe a better question is this:

When did you know that it was time for Nellie to go?

endtroducing · 03-22-2005, 01:48 PM

when the 4th pick in the draft started logging DNPs...

mary · 03-22-2005, 01:49 PM

What consitutes "AJ Failure"? A first round exit? Losing HCA in the first round? I don't really believe Cuban will be coach hunting this offseason - he's made some pretty strong comments about AJ being The Guy. He's not going to change his mind after 19 games and couple of playoff series.

To answer the question, I get the feeling that Nellie knew after a couple of months that he didn't have "it" anymore. If he's going to tie this to losing Nash in the offseason, he must've known early on that this wasn't fun for him anymore and wanted out. I think he held on as long as he did, because he knew it would be easier to talk Mark into a $ 5 million consulting job, than a $ 10 million consulting job.

I think it would've been MUCH better for the team if they had more TIME to adjust to Avery's coaching philosophy - which is to develop your OWN style of play, as opposed to relying on matching up with opponents. I think Devin Harris would've gotten more minutes and the DA trade may or may not have ever happend (at least Dickau can hit a damn shot).

I think the Mavs would've been better off if Nelson had left Avery at least half a season to work with - waiting this late just seems really unstable.

Of course, given that he had lost his "passion to coach" or "motivation" or whatever, I'm sure glad he didn't wait until after the season was over.

The Miles · 03-22-2005, 01:57 PM

I think the timing was perfect due to the fact that this team needed a wakeup call. The Mavs were in serious coast, Lakers 02-03 mode and needed to snap out of it. Hopefully last night was an indication of future things because everyone on the team outside of Jet, who just had a bad game really, was sharp.

sike · 03-22-2005, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: Murphy3
Maybe a better question is this:

When did you know that it was time for Nellie to go?

last season....last half of the season....the more Walker took the ball out of Nash's and Dirk's hands...the more clear it became.

mary · 03-22-2005, 02:13 PM

There's nothing perfect about waiting until 19 games left to enact a coaching change. I haven't really commented about Nellie's quitting, because its been alot of information to absorb, and I knew that we would likely get the whole picture in bits and pieces. Well, this is the conclusion I've come to:

Given that Nellie had admittedly not enjoyed coaching the team anymore, I'm glad he didn't hold out any longer and finish the season. I really do think he had the team's interest in mind when he decided to go ahead and step aside and let Avery be the One Voice. However, I think he was also being opportunistic. Nellie's quitting has NOTHING to do with team slippage. Its a long season - ALL TEAMS HAVE SLIPPAGE. It annoyed me a bit to hear him shift a bit of the blame on the team, when in fact Nellie's most likely been waiting for the right opportunity to leave.

If the team wasn't responding to him as well, maybe its because his own emotional indifference was rubbing off on them.

It would have been MUCH more beneficial to the team if he had decided to do this earlier in the season. If Avery had a larger part of the season to install his "adjustments", how could that have been anything BUT beneficial to the team?

u2sarajevo · 03-22-2005, 02:17 PM

At the risk of sounding callous...... (Jeramy, cue up the "that is the most callous response" drop)

When did I suspect it? When the coach took off time for rotator cuff surgery. That is when I started getting suspicious about his commitment to the team. It seemed fishy.

I mean, prostrate problems? Yeah, take time off. Brain tumor? See ya', call us when you feel better.

But a rotator cuff problem? Granted, I'm not a Dr... but I am thinking that either could have waited or he could have returned alot sooner than he did.

Mavs_fun_fan · 03-22-2005, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: Murphy3
Maybe a better question is this:

When did you know that it was time for Nellie to go?

Last year by mid-season it was obvious the team wasn't playing with any heart, IMO when a team quits playing with heart it is either a player attitude problem (usually cause by bad player chemistry) or the coach isn't inspiring his team (usually because they haven't bought into his strategy).

Since Nellie was the GM and the coach I think either problem ultimately fell on his shoulders.

Murphy3 · 03-22-2005, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: mary
There's nothing perfect about waiting until 19 games left to enact a coaching change. I haven't really commented about Nellie's quitting, because its been alot of information to absorb, and I knew that we would likely get the whole picture in bits and pieces. Well, this is the conclusion I've come to:

Have you noticed that Cuban and Nellie have both toed the company line saying that it was the perfect time to make the change. Avery surely didn't say the same when they asked him at the press conference.

No, of course it's not the perfect time. There may be no 'perfect' time. But as Mary put it, waiting until there's 19 games left to make the change probably wasn't the perfect time for the team. How could it be?

.....
after reading chum's post, made me think of a big positive.... Obviously there is pressure on AJ to have a good showing the remainder of the season,....but honestly, what are the expectations for this team?

GermanBlitzkrieg · 03-22-2005, 02:34 PM

I think earlier this year was the right time to make the switch. I have disagreed with Small Ball/Nellie Ball for 2 to 3 years, but he was given time for his experiment to work. It failed, in that we never won a championship. Nash was allowed to leave, and Cuban basically demanded that a more conventional team be put together. Thus, a real center was brought in, big young'uns were drafted, and the team was retooled.

I don't think Nellie liked the retooling, regardless of what he said. He WANTED bigs to sit outside taking 3 pointers, because it would "open up the middle", "didn't have players that could play defense", Blah, Blah, Blah.

But, AJ wouldn't have been as ready.

And he did bring us back from the desert of the 90's.

Honestly, I'm just glad he's gone now.

chumdawg · 03-22-2005, 02:40 PM

Well, I agree that last year would have been less than optimal. AJ wasn't ready (or even around, was he?). There was no other clear successor. And for that matter, Nellie was coming off a great year, so canning him at the beginning of last year wouldn't have been right. It probably also wouldn't have been right to saddle a new coach with that horrid mix of players. Nellie took one for the team last year, so that the GM could fulfill his long-term plan, the way I see it.

Other than the woes at home, when did it seem really necessary to make the move this year? Damp was coming into his own, the team was playing GREAT on the road, and despite injuries they were winning a lot of games. They were behind SA in the division, but what else is new. The team wasn't in bad shape, especially when they served notice to the rest of the NBA on that five-game road trip.

But somehow, for some reason, things started going really south at that point. In my opinion, it was the first time a change was truly necessary. The team was in a terrible funk, apparently so bad that they weren't going to play their way out of it. There was only ONE way to absolve the team of its problems at that point, and that was a coaching change. Psychologically the players are now able to dismiss their terrible struggles over the last month. They have been given the greatest gift possible: a fresh slate, and new hope. IMO, this is unquestionably the greatest result of the coaching change. It's not the minor adjustments AJ will incorporate. It's the psychological salve this applies to the players. It's like they get a do-over on the season.

In this regard, the timing is excellent. All they have to do is sustain a few weeks' worth of good play, and they can enter the playoffs believing that all their problems are now gone, and they can take on the world. If the move had happened earlier in the year, and the team had had that inevitable period of less-than-par play, the illusion of granduer would have been shattered.

I heard someone mention, also, the strength of schedule right about now. Apparently this was a good time to let AJ get his feet wet, since the opponents in this stretch are softies.

The truth is, everything is set up perfectly for AJ to succeed. Close the season strong, have a good playoff run, and you look like the next coming of Red Auerbach. There is very, very little risk of failure for AJ in this situation--save losing a playoff series that we probably would have lost anyway, if that comes to pass.

What we will find out next year is whether the success (that AJ is almost guaranteed to have) proves to be shallow or deep.

TwoDeep3 · 03-22-2005, 02:48 PM

Murphy - you were wrong. This thread is the lowest point in your messageboard life.

Murphy3 · 03-22-2005, 03:12 PM

Wrong about what?

Murphy3 · 03-22-2005, 03:19 PM

Quote:

But somehow, for some reason, things started going really south at that point. In my opinion, it was the first time a change was truly necessary. The team was in a terrible funk, apparently so bad that they weren't going to play their way out of it. There was only ONE way to absolve the team of its problems at that point, and that was a coaching change. Psychologically the players are now able to dismiss their terrible struggles over the last month. They have been given the greatest gift possible: a fresh slate, and new hope. IMO, this is unquestionably the greatest result of the coaching change. It's not the minor adjustments AJ will incorporate. It's the psychological salve this applies to the players. It's like they get a do-over on the season.

Definitely a well thought out post Chum. For me, I suppose the biggest issue that I had was that I never thought that Nellie was the guy to coach this team. And yes, I was surprised by their quick start. But, I never trusted him with the roster.

So, here's a question for you to ponder....what would have happened if Nellie would have decided to leave when things were going a little better? What if he would have decided that he just couldn't do it anymore in late November? Was it the best time for Nellie to leave because the players needed it to occur? If they were in a positive frame of mind when he left, what do you think it would have done to the team?

My only thought is that perhaps AJ's energy, use of the roster, and defensive mentality might have helped to result in winning 5 or 6 of the games that they otherwise lost. But, then you have to figure that you might lose some wins that the Mavs picked up simply because of the experience of Nellie...

What do you think?

Stressboy · 03-22-2005, 03:28 PM

I have said that I thought he would quit at the all-star break and I think that would have been the best time. I don't think last year would have been a good time. Nothing good would have come of it given the team was incomplete and I did not like any of the coaches available.

Stressboy

chumdawg · 03-22-2005, 03:37 PM

That's a tougher one to chew one. My first thought is that it's a move with more upside and more downside at the same time. I see what you mean: old coach who just doesn't want the grind anymore spends the first month or two of the season training the new coach, installing the systems, etc., then says "Guys, you're in good shape. The new coach is ready. Take it and run with it. Make me proud."

I think in that case the team probably responds well, assuming they have the requisite level of trust in the new guy. AJ brings the passion that Nellie wasn't feeling. AJ uses the roster appropriately, and it's quite possible that we win more games and compete for the top seed. In short, Nellie leaves the team with everything it needs, and the resources that are in place are good enough to get the job done. No one resents Nellie for leaving when he does, since all is in good shape and there is plenty of time left in the season for the new coach to establish his own identity.

The downside is: what happens if the team hits a rough patch? Now you have a situation where it might look like Nellie threw his team to the wolves--a very good team at that. Resentment could set in. The players might see AJ as "not-Nellie." The franchise as a whole might look like one big dysfunctional family.

I tend to think that the upside would have been more likely to happen, but that the downside would have been more destructive than the upside would have been positive. It's certainly an interesting hypothetical, but in light of the way things DID pan out, I don't know that it would have necessarily been the "right" move at the time. All things considered, I do think it played out pretty well as it happened. I think AJ's got time to make his mark. And as I was getting earlier, I think he doesn't have enough time to mess things up.

Perhaps an interesting other question would be whether we would have traded for KVH at the deadline if AJ had been in place already. Or even, what other moves we might have made.

Murphy3 · 03-22-2005, 03:50 PM

I think the move for KVH is still made. But, AJ actually looks at the trade as simply acquiring a backup for Dirk not someone to play along side Dirk for considerable minutes. The move would be made because it was a sound move to make. Garbage out...quality in. The only reason why you wouldn't make the trade would be because of the Dampier injury. But, I think it's obvious that AJ's ok with using Bradley as the #1 center with Damp out. What role would Booth have played? I'm not sure, but I do believe that the move is still made unless there was a better move to make.

Do you think the Mavs try and bring in another center instead of bringing in KVH?

What happens if the Mavs don't hit a rough patch? What happens if they end up playing around 50%-60% ball during that rough patch instead of playing like garbage for a couple of weeks? So perhaps the 'perfect' opportunity wasn't set up as it was with 18-20 games left. Does Nellie 'retire'?

sike · 03-22-2005, 04:16 PM

Quote:

It's not Avery Johnson's style to say "we can't beat the Pismo Beach Panthers.'' It's not his style to pick certain whipping boys and coddle others. It’s not his style to scribble out tricks on bar napkins when simple dominance will do.

lets hope this turns out to be true.

chumdawg · 03-22-2005, 04:45 PM

Sike, where you getting these quotes from? I feel as though I am missing something...

dude1394 · 03-22-2005, 08:17 PM

This seemed like a pretty good time to make it. The team was struggling, nelson didn't look like he had it and avery had proven himself.

Later and we'd not have had a good time to let him settle in, earlier and we wouldn't have known what we had. Pretty fortuitious.

basketball jonessss · 03-22-2005, 10:20 PM

I like Nellie and hate to see him go, but I have been pissed at his coaching for years. Cuban did everything he could to try to save Nellie from his small ball self.

I greatly admire Nellies ability as a GM, but have always disliked his coaching.

Especially in 2002 when we started something like 27 and 5. Then Nellie cuts Bradleys minutes, for what? We were by far the #1 defense and kicking butt.

What needed changed?

basketball jonessss · 03-22-2005, 10:23 PM

Also, the only reason Bradley was starting in 2002 was due to other players being injured.

Why couldn't Nellie learn that a center is a good thing?

Bayliss · 03-22-2005, 10:29 PM

Dallas should've changed a couple of years ago. The problem was at the time I do not know who would coach. But Nellie should've left after the 2001 playoff run. His underdog team achieved what it set out to do. A 5 seed making noise and history.

chumdawg · 03-22-2005, 10:39 PM

You mean to suggest that when a 5 beats a 4 in an elimination game, then gets bounced in the next round, it should represent the pinnacle of success for the guy coaching it?

If so, my standards of ultimate success are just a tad higher than yours.

Bayliss · 03-22-2005, 10:43 PM

Quote:

You mean to suggest that when a 5 beats a 4 in an elimination game, then gets bounced in the next round, it should represent the pinnacle of success for the guy coaching it?

If so, my standards of ultimate success are just a tad higher than yours.

For Nelson? Yes. That is his goal. He would rather be a lower seed upsetting a higher seed than being a higher seed beating a lower seed. It's been his M.O. for years. He coaches his best when his back is against the wall and no one gives his team a chance. That way, he takes all the credit when the team can pull it off and he can use as much creativity as he wants to try and win the series. But if he happens to be the better team, he struggles as a coach. Always have as always will. It's just his M.O.

And that is why he should've left after the 2001 season.

chumdawg · 03-22-2005, 10:55 PM

He would rather?

My goodness, certain things know no bounds...

sike · 03-22-2005, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: chumdawg
Sike, where you getting these quotes from? I feel as though I am missing something...

right here you sexy beast!

chumdawg · 03-23-2005, 12:06 AM

Of course I found it by now...about five hours after you posted it without a link!

Trust me, that's not the first time I've been called "sexy beast." [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] But it does remind me of the movie by the same name. Seen it? Creepy, weird, and verrry uncomfortable...

sike · 03-23-2005, 12:12 AM

not as of yet...but Kingsley is the man.

dude1394 · 03-23-2005, 12:14 AM

I saw it. It reminded me of that brad pitt movie kalifornia in some ways. Kingsley (to be such a shrimpy guy) gave off quite an air of menace.

sike · 03-23-2005, 12:19 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by: chumdawg
Of course I found it by now...about five hours after you posted it without a link!

Trust me, that's not the first time I've been called "sexy beast." [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] But it does remind me of the movie by the same name. Seen it? Creepy, weird, and verrry uncomfortable...

what about it was "uncomfortable"?

chumdawg · 03-23-2005, 12:21 AM

I'd forgotten all about that movie. Yeah, good similarity. I may have to go rewatch the Pitt movie.

Kingsley the man, indeed. In Sexy Beast he was like a suitcase bomb that might go off at any time.

To stay on topic, I have concluded that the Mavs should have made this move precisely three weeks earlier. It would be quite the shame if Duncan's injury brings the Spurs tantalizingly close to our own record, and a couple games we had no business losing were the difference.

But hey, maybe it was made just in time to hold off these Rockets. They are finishing off the Heat as I type...

chumdawg · 03-23-2005, 12:24 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by: sike

Quote:

Originally posted by: chumdawg
Of course I found it by now...about five hours after you posted it without a link!

Trust me, that's not the first time I've been called "sexy beast." [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] But it does remind me of the movie by the same name. Seen it? Creepy, weird, and verrry uncomfortable...

what about it was "uncomfortable"?

This Kingsley cat was so crazy, so dangerous...watching it, you actually felt like *you* might be in jeopardy.

Tense, tense, tense...

GP · 03-23-2005, 04:05 AM

Honestly I think Avery is Nellies guy and not Cubans. I think this move was a calculated move by Nellie to force Cuban to hire Avery instead of shopping around in the offseason. Unfortunately, this team really has only 2 ways to go from here. They have a tough schedule remaining and if anything goes wrong they will back into the playoffs losing home court and possibly losing in the first round. Houston and Denver are red hot right now while Sacramento just seems to keep winning regardless of what happens. The second thing is that the team could really respond well to Avery and make a good run. The problem I think is that Avery is in such a bad spot if the team doesn't reach expectations. Hopefully, this won't have a residual effect long term. If they do make a strong push then he is set. We will all know for sure in about 16 games.

grndmstr_c · 03-23-2005, 04:31 AM

I don't think Cuban would have consented to this if he hadn't been high on Avery himself. The fact that Cuban's allowed Nellie to resign and is meeting with Avery's reps to discuss a contract with the season in full swing speaks volumes, IMO. I doubt he'd even venture the parley if he wasn't confident about going forward with AJ as the head coach. That's not to say that we'll see any long term contract signed at this point, given Cuban's well known stance on contract negotiations in the middle of the season, but Mark's betting his credibility by agreeing to go into a meeting in which he's likely to make some kind of verbal commitment re: Avery as head coach. I have a hard time believing he'd make that bet unless he was nearly certain he'd be happy to live up to it when the time comes.

MavKikiNYC · 03-23-2005, 09:37 AM

The last time Cuban should've acted was in January 2004. Replacement was a question, but that team wasn't going anywhere anyway. Any ACME Interim Coach would've served to fill out the season.

The most recent time that Nellie should've taken off was after Stevie Nash broke his heart and left during the off-season. If that was as spritually incapacitating for Nellie as he's intimating now (and of course in matters of veracity EVERYTHING is a bit IF with Nellie), he would've known then that he couldn't continue.

Any change like this was going to have an inherent awkwardness to it, but sure doesn't seem like NOW was the "perfect time", at least not for the team. Nellie has left both the players and Avery in a bit of a lurch. Perhaps in Nellie's mind, he's left them in a no-pressure situation, where they can play (and Avery can coach) wearing Underdog suits. But 20 games from the end of an injury-plagued season, with the team limping toward the playoffs is not the time to bail. It's akin to Nellie quitting on the team in the 3rd quarter of another heart-breaking loss to the Lakers---just deciding that he doesn't want to have his nads handed to him again by Jackson, and up and getting himself tossed so that he can high-himself to the lockerroom for an early six-pack.

Important thing is that a major impediment to Mavericks advancing in the playoffs (this year and future years) is removed. For that, I'm appreciative.

dude1394 · 03-23-2005, 10:09 AM

If anything avery wasn't left in any kind of lurch. As someone noted has any first-time coach ever inherited a team this good with this much support staff around him. Avery is a lucky man, and part of being lucky (hopefully) if being good.

You might make the case that the team has been, but not aj.