2018 NBA Draft

[saclare]

Also, guys not to be forgotten due to injury or eligibility reasons (aside from the obvious Porter injury) are Jarred Vanderbilt, Mitchell Robinson, and Billy Preston. Out of those three, Vanderbilt probably would have had the best shot to crack the top 10. He's a great talent and we will see how his season progresses as he made his debut on 1/16.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by saclare

Also, guys not to be forgotten due to injury or eligibility reasons (aside from the obvious Porter injury) are Jarred Vanderbilt, Mitchell Robinson, and Billy Preston. Out of those three, Vanderbilt probably would have had the best shot to crack the top 10. He's a great talent and we will see how his season progresses as he made his debut on 1/16.

If we could somehow swing a non-lottery pick, I'd be all over a couple of those guys,

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by saclare

Also, guys not to be forgotten due to injury or eligibility reasons (aside from the obvious Porter injury) are Jarred Vanderbilt, Mitchell Robinson, and Billy Preston. Out of those three, Vanderbilt probably would have had the best shot to crack the top 10. He's a great talent and we will see how his season progresses as he made his debut on 1/16.

Every time Billy Preston is mentioned, the Rhodes electric piano solos from Get Back and Don't Let Me Down get stuck in my head. Thanks Mr. and Mrs. Preston!

[EricaLubarsky]

What I like about Doncic is that he can shoot and he can legitimately not just make a pass but run a play. For someone that young he seems to understand the game. That’s rare.

What scares the heck out of me is his speed. He looks like Adam Morrison out there and his release is slow as tar. He’s going to find it hard to not only defend, but to make plays and shoot. I could be very wrong but a few scouts have raised the concerns and the eye test seems to support it.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

I just read something on a fan forum, with several posters (maybe 4-5), saying that Arizona's coach Sean Miller has no clue how to use Ayton & is really stunting his development/not showcasing his full abilities.

Anyone have an opinion on this?

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I just read something on a fan forum, with several posters (maybe 4-5), saying that Arizona's coach Sean Miller has no clue how to use Ayton & is really stunting his development/not showcasing his full abilities.

Anyone have an opinion on this?

If that's true he's even more of a top choice for the #1 pick.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I just read something on a fan forum, with several posters (maybe 4-5), saying that Arizona's coach Sean Miller has no clue how to use Ayton & is really stunting his development/not showcasing his full abilities.

Anyone have an opinion on this?

I dunno, aside from Ayton and Trier, Arizona doesn't have much going for them... Miller's primary job is to win games, not to prepare his players for the NBA -- if he didn't have to depend on Ayton to do absolutely everything, then he might actually be able to focus more attention in certain areas. Unfortunately they don't have that luxury.

And if this is "stunted" Ayton, then he's primed to be an All-Time great if he can get himself "right."

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Miller's primary job is to win games, not to prepare his players for the NBA

This is true, but at the same time, very close behind Miller's primary job of winning games, is his secondary job of recruiting next year's crop. You don't want to have a reputation of not developing a top flight, 1 & done NBA prospect while you had him.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

This is true, but at the same time, very close behind Miller's primary job of winning games, is his secondary job of recruiting next year's crop. You don't want to have a reputation of not developing a top flight, 1 & done NBA prospect while you had him.

Very true. I remember reading that was a factor in Mo Bamba signing with Texas. Not sure how big of a factor, but he stated the work done with Jarrett Allen and the coaching staff, preparing him and expanding his game.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Back to the Tank Watch...

There's really only 9 other teams the Mavs are realistically competing with at this point for the worst record in the league. With the Mavs loss tonight & Utah's win, the Mavs now have a 4 game edge on Utah. I don't see Utah making up that ground. Plus, they're only 4.5 games out of the 8 seed. That's enough for the FO to hold on & keep the Jazz pushing for Ws, at least for several more weeks.

That leaves Charlotte, LA Lakers, Chicago, Brooklyn Nets, Memphis, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, and Sacramento in competition with the Mavs.

Charlotte - The Mavs currently have a 4 game lead on the Hornets for the worst record. Charlotte has currently had the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule so far. A much easier, more winnable schedule is ahead. Granted the Mavs have had the 2nd most difficult SOS. Charlotte is more more talented than the Mavs. The only concern here is Kemba, Batum and/or others are traded & Charlotte has trouble taking advantage of their easier schedule. That said, they already have 19 wins & I'm not sure the Mavs see more than 25-27 wins this season. I look at the Hornets as a long shot to finish ahead of the Mavs for worst record.

LA Lakers - Mavs are currently up on them 2.5 games for worst record. The Lakers clearly aren't trying to tank. They just pulled out a W last night vs the Celtics. Which makes sense because they have zero incentive to tank. Their 2018 1st round draft pick will either belong to Boston or Philadelphia. Not to mention, Luke Walton is taking some heat, there's pressure on Lonzo Ball to perform. The Lakers players have to feel pressure to perform to stay on the roster for next year with expected FAs joining the team. They're a team that's going to play their hearts out & not try to tank. They're also tied for the 7th most difficult SOS, so more winnable games are coming.

Chicago - Mavs currently are up 2 games on the Bulls for the worst record. Chicago is more talented imo. They have a legitimate experienced center in Lopez. They're talented and deep at PF with Markkanen, Mirotic, and Portis. They're weak at SF, but they also just got Zach LaVine back & they'll get Cameron Payne in a few weeks. Payne isn't a remarkable talent, but he's a 23 yr old prospect with some skills that'll be out there competing for his next contract. The type of guy that even if the FO gave him more minutes in an effort to tank, he could still sneak out a few Ws they'd prefer they didn't. Plus, the Bulls have had the 6th most difficult SOS so far this season, more winnable games are on the way. I honestly would have the Mavs favored significantly to finish with a worst record than the Bulls. Probably would call them 2-1 or maybe even 3-1 favorites.

Brooklyn Nets - The Mavs are currently up 2 games on the Nets for worst record. The Nets 1st round pick this year belongs to Cleveland, so they have zero incentive to tank. The biggest problem with the Nets is they're not very talented & they may be a case of a team that tanks without setting out to. The good news is they've gotten DeAngelo Russell back 3 games ago. So far this year the Nets are 7-9 with Russell and 11-21 without Russell. That's an incomplete comparison because I don't know the SOS differences between the two timetables. Also, if Russell equated to that big a difference in wins, he'd be laughably more valuable than LeBron & we know that's not true. Still, Russell was averaging 21.1 ppg before he went down and doing so while shooting well below career averages from 3 & from the line (his FG% is up but not unreasonably so). Definitely helps to add a 21.1 ppg scorer back to the starting lineup. The Nets are middle of the pack in SOS this year. I legitimately worry about them sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record if they have more injuries, go cold, or the Mavs get hot. On the brightside, they're getting Toronto's 1st round pick this year, so they don't have to panic & trade off a piece just for a draft pick; and on the other hand, they really don't have any impact players to trade away that we would need to worry about.

Memphis - The Mavs are up 1.5 games on the Grizz for worst record. Grizzlies have had the 4th most difficult SOS this season. More winnable games on the horizon. At some point, probably post ASG break, they'll get Conley Jr back in the fold. Normally, I'd be inclined to say Conley Jr coming back might not matter. I feel like Memphis (outside of signing Chandler Parsons to that ridiculous contract) is a savvy organization and totally capable of inventing another injury for Conley Jr if they decide to go in full tank mode. However, they just fired their head coach David Fizdale, with some reports saying it was at Marc Gasol's request. They only have Gasol for one more season beyond this one before he can opt out. I feel like the FO is going to be much more inclined to try and string some Wins together to keep Gasol happy. That may be wishful thinking, but still I don't know how well it would sit with Gasol if he knows the FO is keeping Conley Jr out of the lineup in order to tank (and what he might interrupt as rebuild... especially if they draft a big man). If they do just put Conley Jr back in the rotation facing an easier 2nd half schedule, then Memphis should be able to finish with a better record than the Mavs. Would help if the Mavs can be smart enough to dump their March 10th matchup w/ Memphis.

Phoenix - Mavs are up 1 game on the Suns for worst record. Phoenix is tied for the 18th most difficult SOS, so some slightly tougher games are in their future. Just the fact they have Devin Booker makes them more talented than the Mavs imo. Booker & TJ Warren coupled with a mix of Chandler, Monroe, Len & Chriss as your Bigs. I'd say Phoenix has a slight talent edge (at the moment). Phoenix is definitely a team that could and should trade some pieces away. Heard Monroe is rumored to be dealt at the deadline. They're also void of a playmaking PG. I could easily see the Suns sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record. Hopefully the Mavs are smart and drop their remaining 2 games to Phoenix. Need to be rooting for a loss to the Suns next Wednesday in Phoenix. That would be a huge game to give away. Then we host the Suns the final game of the season, which if we need to lose to stay ahead of them for the worst record, you'd hope we have the good common sense to lose.

Orlando - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Magic for the worst record. ORL has had the 11th most difficult SOS this season, so some slightly more winnable games are on their horizon. Now, we're entering the phase of teams the Mavs are underdogs to finish ahead of for worst record. There's not a ton to hold onto here, but the Magic should get Vucevic back post ASG break. That can't hurt. Gordon is having a breakout year, so hopefully he just continues to improve. Payton is fighting for his NBA life at this point, so you would hope that would push him to play better (altho I'm not sure he can do much better than 52.4 FG%). I think the fact the Magic didn't dump Fournier is an encouraging sign that they're not totally going into tank mode. I give the Mavs at least a reasonable shot of sneaking ahead of the Magic for worst record. Would be really sweet to drop the April 4th matchup vs the Magic in Orlando. It's the least we could do since we beat them earlier in the year. Smh... Hopefully by April the Mavs are in full on tank mode & wise enough to dump this game to the Magic.

Atlanta - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Hawks for the worst record. ATL is tied for the 4th softest SOS so far this season, so tougher games are on the way for the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the few teams in the league that I can safely say the Mavs are more talented than. It was really nice to drop both games to the Hawks this year given that fact. Honestly, I really think the Mavs would need some luck to finish ahead of the Hawks for worst record. They'd need a Harrison Barnes injury and the Hawks staying healthy, getting hot etc. Otherwise, we're gonna need to win the lottery to finish ahead of the Hawks in the 2018 draft order.

Sacramento - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Kings for the worst record. Here comes the leader in the clubhouse for the #1 overall pick. The Kings are already benching veterans. Taking turns sitting Vince Carter, George Hill, Zach Randolph etc. Their head coach Dave Joerger has already been quoted talking about the vets being professionals about it. Not to mention it's looking very likely they'll deal away George Hill and others at the deadline. They're tied for the 10th softest SOS this season, so tougher games are on the horizon. The only hope the Mavs have to finish ahead of the Kings is to either A) Win the lottery and/or B) get smart, start tanking games themselves right now (we do have 3 more games with SAC this yr, including 2 games before the ASB. I'll be down on my hands & knees praying for losses those nights). Plus, hope the Kings can back into a few Ws like they did Tues vs Orlando (and hopefully 3 more times vs us!). Short of that, I can't see any way the Mavs are picking ahead of the Kings come June.

Recap: In particular, every Orlando, Phoenix, and Brooklyn win right now is huge for the Mavs. To a lesser extent, Memphis & Chicago wins too. Obviously, we're not hating a trade to get a piece like Barea or Wes Matthews out of here. Heard a radio interview with DSJ saying that Matthews has been his most helpful mentor this season, so I think Matthews is probably here for the foreseeable future. Just seems like the organization really likes him. Carlisle loves Barea that's well known. We gotta root for non-career threatening injuries. Any of those are more than welcome.

Here's a realistic projection of the worst record "race"

1) Sacramento
2) Atlanta
3) Orlando
4) Phoenix
5) Dallas
6) Chicago
7) Cleveland (via Brooklyn)
8) Charlotte
9) Memphis
10) Philadelphia (via LA Lakers)


Could also see the Mavs sneaking into the 3rd spot, but making a conservative projection. Just don't see them finishing any worse than 6th. So, I would put their realistic range between 3rd & 6th. Would be sweet to hit that Lotto! One time baby!!

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Back to the Tank Watch...

There's really only 9 other teams the Mavs are realistically competing with at this point for the worst record in the league. With the Mavs loss tonight & Utah's win, the Mavs now have a 4 game edge on Utah. I don't see Utah making up that ground. Plus, they're only 4.5 games out of the 8 seed. That's enough for the FO to hold on & keep the Jazz pushing for Ws, at least for several more weeks.

That leaves Charlotte, LA Lakers, Chicago, Brooklyn Nets, Memphis, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, and Sacramento in competition with the Mavs.

Charlotte - The Mavs currently have a 4 game lead on the Hornets for the worst record. Charlotte has currently had the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule so far. A much easier, more winnable schedule is ahead. Granted the Mavs have had the 2nd most difficult SOS. Charlotte is more more talented than the Mavs. The only concern here is Kemba, Batum and/or others are traded & Charlotte has trouble taking advantage of their easier schedule. That said, they already have 19 wins & I'm not sure the Mavs see more than 25-27 wins this season. I look at the Hornets as a long shot to finish ahead of the Mavs for worst record.

LA Lakers - Mavs are currently up on them 2.5 games for worst record. The Lakers clearly aren't trying to tank. They just pulled out a W last night vs the Celtics. Which makes sense because they have zero incentive to tank. Their 2018 1st round draft pick will either belong to Boston or Philadelphia. Not to mention, Luke Walton is taking some heat, there's pressure on Lonzo Ball to perform. The Lakers players have to feel pressure to perform to stay on the roster for next year with expected FAs joining the team. They're a team that's going to play their hearts out & not try to tank. They're also tied for the 7th most difficult SOS, so more winnable games are coming.

Chicago - Mavs currently are up 2 games on the Bulls for the worst record. Chicago is more talented imo. They have a legitimate experienced center in Lopez. They're talented and deep at PF with Markkanen, Mirotic, and Portis. They're weak at SF, but they also just got Zach LaVine back & they'll get Cameron Payne in a few weeks. Payne isn't a remarkable talent, but he's a 23 yr old prospect with some skills that'll be out there competing for his next contract. The type of guy that even if the FO gave him more minutes in an effort to tank, he could still sneak out a few Ws they'd prefer they didn't. Plus, the Bulls have had the 6th most difficult SOS so far this season, more winnable games are on the way. I honestly would have the Mavs favored significantly to finish with a worst record than the Bulls. Probably would call them 2-1 or maybe even 3-1 favorites.

Brooklyn Nets - The Mavs are currently up 2 games on the Nets for worst record. The Nets 1st round pick this year belongs to Cleveland, so they have zero incentive to tank. The biggest problem with the Nets is they're not very talented & they may be a case of a team that tanks without setting out to. The good news is they've gotten DeAngelo Russell back 3 games ago. So far this year the Nets are 7-9 with Russell and 11-21 without Russell. That's an incomplete comparison because I don't know the SOS differences between the two timetables. Also, if Russell equated to that big a difference in wins, he'd be laughably more valuable than LeBron & we know that's not true. Still, Russell was averaging 21.1 ppg before he went down and doing so while shooting well below career averages from 3 & from the line (his FG% is up but not unreasonably so). Definitely helps to add a 21.1 ppg scorer back to the starting lineup. The Nets are middle of the pack in SOS this year. I legitimately worry about them sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record if they have more injuries, go cold, or the Mavs get hot. On the brightside, they're getting Toronto's 1st round pick this year, so they don't have to panic & trade off a piece just for a draft pick; and on the other hand, they really don't have any impact players to trade away that we would need to worry about.

Memphis - The Mavs are up 1.5 games on the Grizz for worst record. Grizzlies have had the 4th most difficult SOS this season. More winnable games on the horizon. At some point, probably post ASG break, they'll get Conley Jr back in the fold. Normally, I'd be inclined to say Conley Jr coming back might not matter. I feel like Memphis (outside of signing Chandler Parsons to that ridiculous contract) is a savvy organization and totally capable of inventing another injury for Conley Jr if they decide to go in full tank mode. However, they just fired their head coach David Fizdale, with some reports saying it was at Marc Gasol's request. They only have Gasol for one more season beyond this one before he can opt out. I feel like the FO is going to be much more inclined to try and string some Wins together to keep Gasol happy. That may be wishful thinking, but still I don't know how well it would sit with Gasol if he knows the FO is keeping Conley Jr out of the lineup in order to tank (and what he might interrupt as rebuild... especially if they draft a big man). If they do just put Conley Jr back in the rotation facing an easier 2nd half schedule, then Memphis should be able to finish with a better record than the Mavs. Would help if the Mavs can be smart enough to dump their March 10th matchup w/ Memphis.

Phoenix - Mavs are up 1 game on the Suns for worst record. Phoenix is tied for the 18th most difficult SOS, so some slightly tougher games are in their future. Just the fact they have Devin Booker makes them more talented than the Mavs imo. Booker & TJ Warren coupled with a mix of Chandler, Monroe, Len & Chriss as your Bigs. I'd say Phoenix has a slight talent edge (at the moment). Phoenix is definitely a team that could and should trade some pieces away. Heard Monroe is rumored to be dealt at the deadline. They're also void of a playmaking PG. I could easily see the Suns sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record. Hopefully the Mavs are smart and drop their remaining 2 games to Phoenix. Need to be rooting for a loss to the Suns next Wednesday in Phoenix. That would be a huge game to give away. Then we host the Suns the final game of the season, which if we need to lose to stay ahead of them for the worst record, you'd hope we have the good common sense to lose.

Orlando - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Magic for the worst record. ORL has had the 11th most difficult SOS this season, so some slightly more winnable games are on their horizon. Now, we're entering the phase of teams the Mavs are underdogs to finish ahead of for worst record. There's not a ton to hold onto here, but the Magic should get Vucevic back post ASG break. That can't hurt. Gordon is having a breakout year, so hopefully he just continues to improve. Payton is fighting for his NBA life at this point, so you would hope that would push him to play better (altho I'm not sure he can do much better than 52.4 FG%). I think the fact the Magic didn't dump Fournier is an encouraging sign that they're not totally going into tank mode. I give the Mavs at least a reasonable shot of sneaking ahead of the Magic for worst record. Would be really sweet to drop the April 4th matchup vs the Magic in Orlando. It's the least we could do since we beat them earlier in the year. Smh... Hopefully by April the Mavs are in full on tank mode & wise enough to dump this game to the Magic.

Atlanta - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Hawks for the worst record. ATL is tied for the 4th softest SOS so far this season, so tougher games are on the way for the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the few teams in the league that I can safely say the Mavs are more talented than. It was really nice to drop both games to the Hawks this year given that fact. Honestly, I really think the Mavs would need some luck to finish ahead of the Hawks for worst record. They'd need a Harrison Barnes injury and the Hawks staying healthy, getting hot etc. Otherwise, we're gonna need to win the lottery to finish ahead of the Hawks in the 2018 draft order.

Sacramento - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Kings for the worst record. Here comes the leader in the clubhouse for the #1 overall pick. The Kings are already benching veterans. Taking turns sitting Vince Carter, George Hill, Zach Randolph etc. Their head coach Dave Joerger has already been quoted talking about the vets being professionals about it. Not to mention it's looking very likely they'll deal away George Hill and others at the deadline. They're tied for the 10th softest SOS this season, so tougher games are on the horizon. The only hope the Mavs have to finish ahead of the Kings is to either A) Win the lottery and/or B) get smart, start tanking games themselves right now (we do have 3 more games with SAC this yr, including 2 games before the ASB. I'll be down on my hands & knees praying for losses those nights). Plus, hope the Kings can back into a few Ws like they did Tues vs Orlando (and hopefully 3 more times vs us!). Short of that, I can't see any way the Mavs are picking ahead of the Kings come June.

Recap: In particular, every Orlando, Phoenix, and Brooklyn win right now is huge for the Mavs. To a lesser extent, Memphis & Chicago wins too. Obviously, we're not hating a trade to get a piece like Barea or Wes Matthews out of here. Heard a radio interview with DSJ saying that Matthews has been his most helpful mentor this season, so I think Matthews is probably here for the foreseeable future. Just seems like the organization really likes him. Carlisle loves Barea that's well known. We gotta root for non-career threatening injuries. Any of those are more than welcome.

Here's a realistic projection of the worst record "race"

1) Sacramento
2) Atlanta
3) Orlando
4) Phoenix
5) Dallas
6) Chicago
7) Cleveland (via Brooklyn)
8) Charlotte
9) Memphis
10) Philadelphia (via LA Lakers)


Could also see the Mavs sneaking into the 3rd spot, but making a conservative projection. Just don't see them finishing any worse than 6th. So, I would put their realistic range between 3rd & 6th. Would be sweet to hit that Lotto! One time baby!!

Holy crap, dude, you are putting in some WORK.

All I care about is finishing in the top-5 -- it gives us a bit of a safety net if the lotto balls don't fall our way...

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Holy crap, dude, you are putting in some WORK.

All I care about is finishing in the top-5 -- it gives us a bit of a safety net if the lotto balls don't fall our way...

Lol. I appreciate it. I use to dabble with sports betting. Let's just say that Patriots miracle come back in last year's Super Bowl was a punch to the kidneys! LOL.

But, I'm really good at doing research.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Just gonna have a little more fun with this.

Let's say the draft order does finish like this:

1) Sacramento
2) Atlanta
3) Orlando
4) Phoenix
5) Dallas


With Divac involved, I could definitely see the Kings taking Doncic.

1) SAC - Luka Doncic

Would have to project ATL taking whoever they have rated as the best big on their board, with Doncic gone.

2) ATL - DeAndre Ayton (Altho, I could see Bagley III going here too)

I could see Orlando passing on Bagley III because of the similar skill set to Aaron Gordon. Also because unexpected things happen in the draft. I could see them taking Michael Porter Jr here, if their scouts have him rated as a generational talent. Could see them reaching on Bamba here, altho that's less likely with them just having drafted Jonathan Isaac last year. Could see them drafting Trae Young here too. They could take so many players we'd like to get our hands on, one reason I'm really hoping we sneak ahead of them for worst record. But for speculation purposes, I'm going to give them...

3) ORL - Michael Porter Jr

The Suns biggest need is at PG, if they're drafting here I can see them taking Trae Young over Marvin Bagley III

4) PHX - Trae Young

This is one of the nice things about the Mavs finishing with a top 5 pick, even top 6, which I don't see them falling further than 6th. A player like Marvin Bagley III could fall to them. It's not likely that Bagley himself falls, but it's not absurd either. Sitting here at 5 the Mavs have their pick of Bagley III or Bamba. Plus, they could take a long look at Jackson Jr from Michigan State or Mikal Bridges from Villanova. All 4 of these players I've heard described multiple times as possibly the best player in this draft. By the way, say Kings' ownership views Ayton as too good to pass up no matter what Divac says, then you could see a scenario where Doncic falls to 5, and the Mavs once again are looking at a player who many say could be the best player in this draft. Same is true of Michael Porter Jr, if he declares. For our purposes, I'm going to have the Mavs take...

5) DAL - Marvin Bagley III


If I'm right, and the Mavs don't fall any further than the 6th pick, then I'll probably be happy with anyone they pick, unless it's Porter Jr. Too worried about the back with that kid. This is going to be an exciting sweat for the Mavs til Lottery night!

Really hope they sneak out the 3rd pick. If Sac is 1 and Atl is 2, then I think Sac takes Doncic and the Mavs get whoever is left over between Ayton and Bagley III. I ain't mad at that.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Just gonna have a little more fun with this.

Let's say the draft order does finish like this:

1) Sacramento
2) Atlanta
3) Orlando
4) Phoenix
5) Dallas


With Divac involved, I could definitely see the Kings taking Doncic.

1) SAC - Luka Doncic

Would have to project ATL taking whoever they have rated as the best big on their board, with Doncic gone.

2) ATL - DeAndre Ayton (Altho, I could see Bagley III going here too)

I could see Orlando passing on Bagley III because of the similar skill set to Aaron Gordon. Also because unexpected things happen in the draft. I could see them taking Michael Porter Jr here, if their scouts have him rated as a generational talent. Could see them reaching on Bamba here, altho that's less likely with them just having drafted Jonathan Isaac last year. Could see them drafting Trae Young here too. They could take so many players we'd like to get our hands on, one reason I'm really hoping we sneak ahead of them for worst record. But for speculation purposes, I'm going to give them...

3) ORL - Michael Porter Jr

The Suns biggest need is at PG, if they're drafting here I can see them taking Trae Young over Marvin Bagley III

4) PHX - Trae Young

This is one of the nice things about the Mavs finishing with a top 5 pick, even top 6, which I don't see them falling further than 6th. A player like Marvin Bagley III could fall to them. It's not likely that Bagley himself falls, but it's not absurd either. Sitting here at 5 the Mavs have their pick of Bagley III or Bamba. Plus, they could take a long look at Jackson Jr from Michigan State or Mikal Bridges from Villanova. All 4 of these players I've heard described multiple times as possibly the best player in this draft. By the way, say Kings' ownership views Ayton as too good to pass up no matter what Divac says, then you could see a scenario where Doncic falls to 5, and the Mavs once again are looking at a player who many say could be the best player in this draft. Same is true of Michael Porter Jr, if he declares. For our purposes, I'm going to have the Mavs take...

5) DAL - Marvin Bagley III


If I'm right, and the Mavs don't fall any further than the 6th pick, then I'll probably be happy with anyone they pick, unless it's Porter Jr. Too worried about the back with that kid. This is going to be an exciting sweat for the Mavs til Lottery night!

Really hope they sneak out the 3rd pick. If Sac is 1 and Atl is 2, then I think Sac takes Doncic and the Mavs get whoever is left over between Ayton and Bagley III. I ain't mad at that.

I think the Hawks are trying to avoid drafting Bagley since they had with Collins such a nice draft steal. So i think they are going for center or wing.

[EricaLubarsky]

If I had to wager, I’d wager we end 6th and then draft 7th

[Underdog]

@bobbykaralla: On our podcast Donnie Nelson said Skin and I are worth a 2nd-rounder. But if I can step up my fashion game, we might be able to snag Dallas a late-1st. I will get better.

[Underdog]

@Rrlewis2: ESPN/DraftExpress update their mock draft today. Brace yourself #Mavs fans.

#MFFL

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Underdog

@Rrlewis2: ESPN/DraftExpress update their mock draft today. Brace yourself #Mavs fans.

#MFFL

Wooooooo.

Who do they predict we'll get in the lottery in 2019?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Wooooooo.

Who do they predict we'll get in the lottery in 2019?

I get the feeling that the people who make these mocks tend to pick the best players for the teams they like most, then try to have all the other teams "talk themselves into" the players left over... If we somehow picked at #8, I'd rather see us draft one of the Bridges, then try to trade our way to around pick #20 and get either Mitchell Robinson or Brandon McCoy (if we just have to come out of this draft with a center). Wendell Carter is someone I'd take closer to #10.

Although I don't see us drafting outside the top-5 unless the lottery balls conspire against us... And even then, it probably won't be worse than #6.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I get the feeling that the people who make these mocks tend to pick the best players for the teams they like most, then try to have all the other teams "talk themselves into" the players left over... If we somehow picked at #8, I'd rather see us draft one of the Bridges, then try to trade our way to around pick #20 and get either Mitchell Robinson or Brandon McCoy (if we just have to come out of this draft with a center). Wendell Carter is someone I'd take closer to #10.

Although I don't see us drafting outside the top-5 unless the lottery balls conspire against us... And even then, it probably won't be worse than #6.

You're more optimistic than I. We're barely 4th and terrible at tanking with the easiest upcoming schedule of any lottery-bound team.

Difficulty of remaining schedule:

Kings - 5th hardest
Suns - 6th hardest
Nets - 12th hardest
Hawks - 14th hardest
Grizz - 24th hardest
Magic - 25th hardest
Mavs - 27th hardest

Everyone is all bunched up within a game or two and the Mavs have the single easiest schedule of all of those lottery contenders while being terrible at actually pulling off the tank. Remember last year when we won game 82, missed our chance at #8 and almost got ourselves #10 (which would have cost us Smith)?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

You're more optimistic than I. We're barely 4th and terrible at tanking with the easiest upcoming schedule of any lottery-bound team.

Difficulty of remaining schedule:

Kings - 5th hardest
Suns - 6th hardest
Nets - 12th hardest
Hawks - 14th hardest
Grizz - 24th hardest
Magic - 25th hardest
Mavs - 27th hardest

Everyone is all bunched up within a game or two and the Mavs have the single easiest schedule of all of those lottery contenders while being terrible at actually pulling off the tank. Remember last year when we won game 82, missed our chance at #8 and almost got ourselves #10 (which would have cost us Smith)?

Nets have nothing to gain by tanking since they don't have their pick, Grizz and Magic SOS is close enough to ours not to really matter (is Conley coming back?)... I guess it just depends on what we do around the trade deadline -- I could see us going all-in on the tank if some of these vets get shipped out for picks.

[EricaLubarsky]

Nets +2.0 (12th hardest schedule)
Grizzlies +1.5 (24th hardest schedule)
Phoenix +1.0 (6th hardest schedule)
Dallas === (27th hardest schedule)
Kings -0.5 (5th hardest schedule)
Orlando -1.0 (25th hardest schedule)
Hawks -1.5 (14th hardest schedule)

We are going to have to tank real hard to get out of this alive. 33 Games left and 3.5 Games separate the #1 and #7. Mavs have the easiest schedule of all of the bottom 7 teams. Suns have the 6th hardest schedule left and are only 1 game back. Grizz going full tank despite the easy schedule with Conley out.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Underdog

@Rrlewis2: ESPN/DraftExpress update their mock draft today. Brace yourself #Mavs fans.

#MFFL

Why are they mocking the Mavs #8?

[Magnum_3_Ball]

I know that post I made last night was really long, but somebody read that & then tell me how we're picking 8th?

Somebody look at the Mavs remaining schedule & tell me how we get to 30 wins? Tank or no tank, this team isn't good enough to get to 30 wins. It just isn't. Not with the addition of Greg Monroe, not if every Maverick magically stays healthy the rest of the season. For us to drop that far in the draft order, we'd have to astronomically bad luck. Like say every other team we play is missing 1 or 2 of their best players due to injury or rest. I can't really forecast that.

Even if that happens, there's still a lot of PHX vs SAC, ATL vs ORL, CHI vs BKN, MEM vs LAL games left on the schedule. Somebody has to win those games. Trust me when I say this, I spent several hours on this last night, the Mavs are going to finish somewhere between the 3rd and 6th worst record in the league this year. I'd give you 10-1 odds on that, and I'd be making money.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I know that post I made last night was really long, but somebody read that & then tell me how we're picking 8th?

Somebody look at the Mavs remaining schedule & tell me how we get to 30 wins? Tank or no tank, this team isn't good enough to get to 30 wins. It just isn't. Not with the addition of Greg Monroe, not if every Maverick magically stays healthy the rest of the season. For us to drop that far in the draft order, we'd have to astronomically bad luck. Like say every other team we play is missing 1 or 2 of their best players due to injury or rest. I can't really forecast that.

Even if that happens, there's still a lot of PHX vs SAC, ATL vs ORL, CHI vs BKN, MEM vs LAL games left on the schedule. Somebody has to win those games. Trust me when I say this, I spent several hours on this last night, the Mavs are going to finish somewhere between the 3rd and 6th worst record in the league this year. I'd give you 10-1 odds on that, and I'd be making money.

Because ESPN worked their mock backwards and thought about which players they'd like to see on certain teams, rather than considering where teams will actually finish and then determining who they'd most likely pick.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Because ESPN worked their mock backwards and thought about which players they'd like to see on certain teams, rather than considering where teams will actually finish and then determining who they'd most likely pick.

Yeah I looked at several mocks last night, 5-6 most posted within the last 3-4 weeks, sites like Sporting News, SI, Bleacher Report, etc. Their draft order was ridiculous. One mock had Chicago drafting first, another had Boston drafting 2nd with the Lakers pick, one had the Kings drafting 5th. Let me tell you something, the biggest lock of this entire draft order is the Kings drafting in the top 3 picks.

But that's just bad research on their part. I saw one mock that had Boston picking 8th with the Lakers pick, but if the Lakers finish 8th that pick goes to Philadelphia. If whoever is putting the mock together doesn't even know that much, what does that say about the quality of their mock in general?

If the Mavs finish with the 6th worst record in the leauge, which I'm confident based on my research last night they will finish no worse than the 6th worst record, then the worst they could do is pick 9th. There would be a 1 in 100,000 chance they pick 9th, a 1 in 2,500 chance they pick 8th, and basically a 96% chance they pick 6th or 7th. I'm not certain I have the math exactly right on that, but the basic idea is right. Very long odds they would pick 8th or 9th, very likely they would pick 6th or 7th, with an outside shot at a top 3 pick.

Edit: Actually I think the math on picking 9th is 1 in 1,000, and the math on picking 8th is 1 in 400. Even this might be wrong, it's been a long time since I took a math class. Lol. Kinda same difference tho.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

I'm seeing on another forum, in Draft Express' updated mock they have Jaren Jackson Jr going 5th. I saw some more highlights of him last night & read up on him a bit more. Starting to really like this kid. Feel like he's a clear cut 2nd tier player in this draft, and depending on how the rest of his season plays out/combine performance, he could push for top tier consideration.

DX also had Bagley at 4, with Bamba ahead of him at 3. I keep seeing Bagley getting knocked. Find that interesting.

[EricaLubarsky]

Goodness gracious, the more I look the more I see an embarrassment of riches from this draft.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Goodness gracious, the more I look the more I see an embarrassment of riches from this draft.

That's why our primary focus should be to get as many high picks as possible... Like, I have no problem packaging future firsts for firsts in this draft.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

That's why our primary focus should be to get as many high picks as possible... Like, I have no problem packaging future firsts for firsts in this draft.

I would love to get another 1st round pick this year. Wouldn't mind another 2nd round pick either.

Hasn't been much discussion of the guys in the mid to late 1st round because we know the Mavs will pick before that, but who are some of the players who peek your interest?

I'm intrigued by UNLV's Freshman Center Brandon McCoy. He did a respectable job defending DeAndre Ayton when they met earlier this year, and he's been projected in the 20s in most mocks I've seen.

A lot of people are starting to fall in love with Oregon's Freshman Wing Troy Brown. I think he's a strong candidate to move up into the back end of the lottery, but if the Mavs produced a mid 1st round pick somehow & he were still sitting there, I'd be very interested.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I would love to get another 1st round pick this year. Wouldn't mind another 2nd round pick either.

Hasn't been much discussion of the guys in the mid to late 1st round because we know the Mavs will pick before that, but who are some of the players who peek your interest?

I'm intrigued by UNLV's Freshman Center Brandon McCoy. He did a respectable job defending DeAndre Ayton when they met earlier this year, and he's been projected in the 20s in most mocks I've seen.

A lot of people are starting to fall in love with Oregon's Freshman Wing Troy Brown. I think he's a strong candidate to move up into the back end of the lottery, but if the Mavs produced a mid 1st round pick somehow & he were still sitting there, I'd be very interested.

Yeah, I mentioned it somewhere in one of these threads, but if we don't land a center with our first pick, I'd love to somehow trade players/picks for something around pick #20 and grab Brandon McCoy or Mitch Robinson, maybe Daniel Gafford if he doesn't keep climbing. Hell, there's a chance Robert Williams is still there, which is closer to where I'd prefer to get him.

I also dig Troy Brown, but agree that he's likely to keep climbing -- same with Miami's Lonnie Walker and Bruce Brown... A couple other guys I have my eye on are Keita Bates-Diop and Shake Milton... I also wonder where Justin Jackson or Anfernee Simmons end up getting drafted. Some of these guys may be gettable with our second rounder.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Wow! Sacramento just went into Miami & pulled out a 1 point win! Pretty incredible too. They played them tight all game, went into the 4th quarter down 1, and Miami started the 4th on a 12-1 run, then the Kings came back & won it!!!

[saclare]

Lol thatta way Sacto.

Also, on Dan Gafford. The interest will cool. He's a great kid and supremely athletic, but has a good way to go on development. He's an advanced shot blocker, rebounder, and finisher, especially dunking. However, he could work on his defense, post offense, and learn to grow confident in his short to mid-range shots, which I think he is solid at hitting but he doesn't seem to trust it.

He had a grand total of 0 points last game against Georgia. A lot can be attributed to our senior guards taking over that game, but I wish Mike Anderson would do more to get him involved. I'd really like to see a pick and roll game, since I'd think he'd thrive in it.

I really think he stays one more year. I can see why he gets lotto projections in some spots, and second round in others. He definitely has a lot of potential, and I'd love him in a Mavs uniform, I just don't see that happening in the first round at this point.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

I just found the Adrian Wojnarowski podcast. I was listening to the episode with Zach Lowe from the start of the season, and at 34:20 in (link here: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/art...woj/e/51417701) they talk about something very interesting. I never knew Steph told the Warriors not to draft him because he wouldn't sign there. They talk about how Porzingis would of gone 10th to Orlando in 2014, but he didn't want to play for them & decided to stay another year in Europe. Even further with the unicorn, they talk about how Philly wanted him, but he wouldn't work out for them. Philly wound up taking Jahil Okafor instead, and New York wound up with Porzingis despite the fact Phil Jackson never even saw him play until very late in the scouting process.

Very interesting stuff, especially for Mavs' fans. I've always agreed with what Zach Lowe said "call these players' bluffs". But teams fall for it time & time again from Eli with San Diego to the Giants in the NFL, to Stevie Franchise with the Grizzilies, Kobe falling to 13th & then a trade to the Lakers LOL... I think we're blessed here in Dallas. Btw, earlier in the podcast they talk about the tanking reform and discuss how teams attract quality FAs.

I could see a scenario where the Mavs are picking 4th, with say Sacramento picking 3rd, and a prized draft pick is telling his agent to make sure Sacramento knows he won't sign with them that he wants to play for the Mavs. Not only are we a well-thought of organization around the league from the players' perspective especially, but we might owe a lot to New York passing on Dennis Smith Jr last year because with DSJ now a future top 5 draft pick has a reason to want to come play with the Mavs!

[Magnum_3_Ball]

2009 draft is pretty remarkable. Zach Lowe says in that podcast that one day he wants to go back & do an oral history of the '09 draft. Made me wanna go back & take a look at it.

It's crazy, if you take Blake Griffin, James Harden, and Steph off the table, you could legitimately say the 2nd round picks were more productive than the 1st round picks.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

2009 draft is pretty remarkable. Zach Lowe says in that podcast that one day he wants to go back & do an oral history of the '09 draft. Made me wanna go back & take a look at it.

It's crazy, if you take Blake Griffin, James Harden, and Steph off the table, you could legitimately say the 2nd round picks were more productive than the 1st round picks.

Ermm that's a stretch. Beverley, Green, and Mills are respectable to that argument. Also miss mentioning DeRozan, Rubio, Holiday, Teague, Gibson, and Carroll.

Looks like the draft played out pretty normally.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by saclare

Ermm that's a stretch. Beverley, Green, and Mills are respectable to that argument. Also miss mentioning DeRozan, Rubio, Holiday, Teague, Gibson, and Carroll.

Looks like the draft played out pretty normally.

I'd say that having no superstars and only one borderline star in the group makes it weak. Journeymen starters, sure, but no starters.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I'd say that having no superstars and only one borderline star in the group makes it weak. Journeymen starters, sure, but no starters.

Griffin, Harden, Steph, and DeRozan all claim multiple All-Star nods. Not bad from the draft, though I understand your statement and/or sentiment. I just fail to see how the 2nd round offers much of anything outside of those mentioned.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by saclare

Ermm that's a stretch. Beverley, Green, and Mills are respectable to that argument. Also miss mentioning DeRozan, Rubio, Holiday, Teague, Gibson, and Carroll.

Looks like the draft played out pretty normally.

You're only talking about players who are still in the league. I'm talking about the value each player had for their selection i.e. a guy like Chase Budinger. Sure, he's no longer in the league, but he's a guy who was drafted 44th overall & saw his 2nd NBA contract through. That's exceeding expectations for the 44th player taken; not to mention, seeing his 2nd contract through is more than you can say for Thabeet, Jonny Flynn, Terrence Williams, or Eric Maynor, for example.

I didn't leave out DeRozan or those other guys. I'm saying if you add up the value on each side, it probably slants to the 2nd round players IF you remove Blake, Harden & Steph. If you take out DeRozan & those other guys, then the 2nd rounders win in a landslide.

2009 1st rounders (minus Blake, Harden, Steph)

Tyreke Evans
Rubio
Jordan Hill
DeRozan
Brandon Jennings
Gerald Henderson
Psycho T
James Johnson
Jrue Holiday
Ty Lawson
Jeff Teague
Darren Collison
Omri Casspi
Taj Gibson
DeMarre Carroll
Wayne Ellington
Toney Douglas

2009 2nd rounders

Dante Cunningham
DeJuan Blair
Jonas Jerebko
Jodie Meeks
Patrick Beverly
Marcus Thornton
Chase Budinger
Danny Green
Patty Mills



Eh, ok. You got me. Just on total numbers alone the 1st rounders are up 17-9. But, still that's a pretty below average 1st round crop & a pretty above average 2nd round group, imo.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Listening to the Woj podcast with Draft Express/ESPN's Jonathan Givony on & going back to the Doncic discussion here the past few days some interesting things said.

Wojnarowski "I had GMs coming to me after the Arizona/Texas A&M game the other night & saying (Ayton) that's the #1 pick"

Givony "I think it takes more courage to take Bagley or Ayton (#1) because Doncic has done it vs NBA players. You saw Doncic with Porzingis switching onto him & Doncic scoring on him repeatedly. You saw Doncic just kick Evan Fournier's ass & that's a near max guy in the NBA. You saw him destroy Ricky Rubio in the semi-finals of an European championship. What Ayton and Bagley are doing is impressive, and those guys are great prospects, and they have just as good a chance to go #1 as Doncic, but still they're doing it against kids. I think Doncic is just a lot more proven. I don't think it takes any courage at all to take him #1."

Which the question to Givony was "Does it take more courage to take a foreign player over a NCAA star #1?"

Later on Givony says "I could see where Duke has a deep run in the tournament and Bagley plays amazing, Ayton too, and it's in the media every day & there's a lot of public pressure on the team drafting #1 to take one of those guys. If that happens and Doncic falls to #3 and plays great, wins the Rookie of the Year, then I'm not gonna wanna hear anybody say oh how were we suppose to know, he was all the way in Europe. Hell no."

Givony seems convinced Doncic is the #1 pick in this year's draft. Another thing said in this podcast that I found pretty remarkable. They said the year before the Knicks took Porzingis at 4, he was in this same Spanish ACB league and he only averaged 7 and 4 and had some really bad games. They say Doncic hasn't had any bad games and is averaging 16, 7 and 5 at the time of the podcast.