Mavs off-season and draft 2023 thread

[EricaLubarsky]

===========TANK STANDINGS=========
15th/16th are still technically possible, but unlikely
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
10th/11th/12th - 32.3% chance of keeping our pick (9.9% chance of a top 4)
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
8th - 99.6% chance of keeping our pick (28.9% chance of a top 4)
7th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (31.9% chance of a top 4)
6th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (35.2% chance of a top 4)


================TIE SCENARIOS=====================
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.3% chance of keeping pick


================STANDINGS================
9th - Jazz -1.5games
10th/11th/12th - Thunder/Bulls/MAVS
13th - Wolves +2.0 games

79.8% chance of keeping our pick (13.88 chance of a top 4) - BEFORE THE WIN (sole 10th)
32.3% chance of keeping our pick (10.3% chance of a top 4) - AFTER THE WIN (tied 10/11/12)
---------------
The win reduced the current forecast by a 47.5% chance of keeping the pick and 3.58% chance of a top-4

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

===========TANK STANDINGS=========
15th/16th are still technically possible, but unlikely
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
10th/11th/12th - 32.3% chance of keeping our pick (9.9% chance of a top 4)
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
8th - 99.6% chance of keeping our pick (28.9% chance of a top 4)
7th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (31.9% chance of a top 4)
6th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (35.2% chance of a top 4)


================TIE SCENARIOS=====================
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.3% chance of keeping pick


================STANDINGS================
9th - Jazz -1.5games
10th/11th/12th - Thunder/Bulls/MAVS
13th - Wolves +2.0 games

79.8% chance of keeping our pick (13.88 chance of a top 4) - BEFORE THE WIN (sole 10th)
32.3% chance of keeping our pick (10.3% chance of a top 4) - AFTER THE WIN (tied 10/11/12)
---------------
The win reduced the current forecast by a 47.5% chance of keeping the pick and 3.58% chance of a top-4

9th would have all but assured us of keeping the pick. And a puncher?s chance at Wemby. Sigh?