2018 Free Agency / Armchair GM Thread - Page 13 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

Underdog · 06-26-2018, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Me.B

Cap space. They are in full tear down mode. Would they be willing to take back other expiring deals? Wes and JJ together are $22 mil in expiring contracts. Then Dallas just eats the rest. That would clear the log jam in the back court and still leave the Mavs with about $23 mil to spend in FA. The Clippers would save $2 mil right off the top and still would not be committed to any money beyond this season.

But Jordan is expiring as well -- the Clips get the cap space in a year either way... Their only motivation to do a deal would be to obtain assets.

Kidd Karma · 06-26-2018, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mac222b

I don't want DeAndre if it means giving up actual assets- such as Brunson. He can opt out if he wants to sign here. Willing to forgive the little bitch because he's such a good fit, but giving up assets so he can opt in and make more $: hell to the naw. He owes us one.

The ONLY virtue in trading for him on an opt in is he's in a contract year. Its still not worth it. Why would the Clippers just give him away? Unless he says "I opt out and walk if you don't trade me to Dallas" and they are fine with taking back Wes. Why wouldnt they just let him walk? They'll try to squeeze us for an asset and I'm totally opposed. Its a buyers market.

Agreed, the word was he'd be opting out and becoming a free agent. Offer him 3 years 60 million. For a 30 year old center who's game is dependent on athleticism....3 years is the borderline. 24.1 trade, if they take Matthews only, we'd preserve 18 million in cap space that would have gone to Jordan in FA.

Given the 30 million in cap space, a Matthews-Jordan straight up trade reduces the cap space to about 24 - 25 million which is borderline to a max deal for players with 6 or less years of experience....Randle/Gordon the 2 bigger named restricted FA. Randle probably has a lesser chance of being matched, Gordon pretty close to being a guaranteed match by the Magic.

sefant77 · 06-26-2018, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3_Ball

On that note, nobody talks about that Barnes contract, but I absolutely hate it. He is grossly overpaid.

Barnes is one of the 2016 luck boys. Dont blame him for that, that entire FA was a giant anomaly. He knows he isnt worth 25m or that he is going to get 25m in his next free agency.

Btw i really wouldnt be surprised if the Mavs and Barnes have a winkie winkie deal next summer. He opts out of 25m and signs a new 4/80 contract. Giving up five million but securing his longterm contract in Dallas.

And the Mavs dig out five more million cap space. Maybe they try the same with Powell (tell him to opt out to get like a 4/30 deal)

EricaLubarsky · 06-26-2018, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BPo001

I think Skin threw out Maxi and 2 2nd rounders. We have the cap room to absorb DJ contract. I kinda hate to give up 2 2nd rounders for what could be a 1 year rental on DJ though.

This is admittedly my own player crush, but I think Kleber is going to be money here. Hustled hard, improved and did what we asked him to. His three point percentage of 31.3% actually beats Dirk's 20.6%. I'd bet that he shoots 40% this year next to Doncic and Smith.

sefant77 · 06-26-2018, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

Gordon pretty close to being a guaranteed match by the Magic.

Not so sure about that, Magic have a new frontoffice, its not the guys who drafted him anymore, so easier decision "to let go".

Also Gordon at SF doesnt really work well, same with Isaac. So dont know if they would be willing to match Gordon at any costs (thats the big difference to Capela/Morey and the Rockets win now)

mac222b · 06-26-2018, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sefant77

Barnes is one of the 2016 luck boys. Dont blame him for that, that entire FA was a giant anomaly. He knows he isnt worth 25m or that he is going to get 25m in his next free agency.

Btw i really wouldnt be surprised if the Mavs and Barnes have a winkie winkie deal next summer. He opts out of 25m and signs a new 4/80 contract. Giving up five million but securing his longterm contract in Dallas.

And the Mavs dig out five more million cap space. Maybe they try the same with Powell (tell him to opt out to get like a 4/30 deal)

If thats the case I hope Barnes is shooting like a thousand 3's a day. Wouldnt want to pay him 20m if he cant get up to around 38%-40% from 3. He did that in GSW so better looks should help some. Doncic and DSJ are going to need guys to drive and kick to.

EricaLubarsky · 06-26-2018, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

But Jordan is expiring as well -- the Clips get the cap space in a year either way... Their only motivation to do a deal would be to obtain assets.

HOWEVER, they don't have a choice if Jordan opts in. Jordan says, "I opt in" and they are suddenly responsible for Jordan's 21.4mill.

We're under the cap so we can absorb Jordan's contract and they save 21mill (they're right at the cap so they'd get that all in cap space.

OR we send them the expiring contract of Matthews. They save 5+ mill and we sweeten the deal somehow.

sefant77 · 06-26-2018, 02:42 PM

Lets tell Jordans agent that we are going to offer 4/80 and he should opt out. Then Jordans opts out and Cuban post a picture of a chair holding the door to the Mavs facility...

mac222b · 06-26-2018, 02:43 PM

Ok, If we can somehow swing Deandre for Wes w/out giving up Brunson and get Gordon with a max RFA offer then Im back on the "Donnie is a genius wagon"

Jordan
Gordon
Barnes
Doncic
DSJ

mac222b · 06-26-2018, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sefant77

Lets tell Jordans agent that we are going to offer 4/80 and he should opt out. Then Jordans opts out and Cuban post a picture of a chair holding the door to the Mavs facility...

Love it. This would almost be worth it.

DevinHarriswillstart · 06-26-2018, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mac222b

I don't want DeAndre if it means giving up actual assets- such as Brunson. He can opt out if he wants to sign here. Willing to forgive the little bitch because he's such a good fit, but giving up assets so he can opt in and make more $: hell to the naw. He owes us one.

The ONLY virtue in trading for him on an opt in is he's in a contract year. Its still not worth it. Why would the Clippers just give him away? Unless he says "I opt out and walk if you don't trade me to Dallas" and they are fine with taking back Wes. Why wouldnt they just let him walk? They'll try to squeeze us for an asset and I'm totally opposed. Its a buyers market.

It does greatly help with flexibility to trade for him though because then you can add another big free agent.

Kidd Karma · 06-26-2018, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sefant77

Not so sure about that, Magic have a new frontoffice, its not the guys who drafted him anymore, so easier decision "to let go".

Also Gordon at SF doesnt really work well, same with Isaac. So dont know if they would be willing to match Gordon at any costs (thats the big difference to Capela/Morey and the Rockets win now)

Gordon's best spot is PF. With Bamba, Vucevic and Biyombo rostered costing about 34 million for one position....a 10 million dollar forward rotation of Simmons/Issac might be easier to swallow then adding Gordon's 25 million salary. PG is a major need at this point for them with Augustin the only one under contract..Vucevic/Biyombo becomes bait for a PG....or they go the FA route. Very unbalanced roster.

Me.B · 06-26-2018, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

But Jordan is expiring as well -- the Clips get the cap space in a year either way... Their only motivation to do a deal would be to obtain assets.

Right but trading with any other team they are likely having to take back contracts that are not expiring. True they could just keep Deandre but they appear to be wanting to work with him by trading him to a team of his choice. By trading with the Mavs they would get immediate savings on the cap and also would not have to take back any contracts that are not expiring.

mac222b · 06-26-2018, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

It does greatly help with flexibility to trade for him though because then you can add another big free agent.

Only if we send back salary. If we sent them, say, Brunson and picks and they want the capspace back instead of semi-useful Wes- I wouldnt be as keen on that.

Underdog · 06-26-2018, 03:34 PM

@TheSteinLine: One source described a Jordan-to-Dallas trade as a "long shot" ... but the fact it's on the board is the strongest indication yet that the sides are willing to engage again after Jordan's about-face in 2015 free agency when he committed to the Mavs and then went back to the Clips

@espn_macmahon: As @TheSteinLine reported, DeAndre Jordan opting into last year of deal and being traded to Dallas is unlikely ... But source says Mavs will have interest in Jordan if he hits free agent market. Mavs are in good spot to shop for big man with several on market and few teams with $

saclare · 06-26-2018, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

It at least makes sense for why they'd want Smart. If we traded Matthews for Jordan, then we'd be looking for our 3/D guy.

Don't you have to be a good 3 point shooter to be considered a 3/D guy? He's a 29.3% shooter for his 4-year NBA career so far and for bonus, he shot 29.5% across two seasons in college.

Not saying he can't improve, but for the money that he is rumored to want, I'm looking in other places first.

Me.B · 06-26-2018, 04:17 PM

I wonder if there is any chance the Mavs/Rockets/Clippers explore a 3 team trade that sends Deandre to Houston, Capela to Dallas, and draft picks/expiring contracts to LA? That would allow both Houston and Dallas to keep their cap space while also adding a quality defensive center.

Kidd Karma · 06-26-2018, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Me.B

I wonder if there is any chance the Mavs/Rockets/Clippers explore a 3 team trade that sends Deandre to Houston, Capela to Dallas, and draft picks/expiring contracts to LA? That would allow both Houston and Dallas to keep their cap space while also adding a quality defensive center.

For Capela, I doubt Houston would get involved, unless Paul pushes for it. Mavs can kick out Matthews in, a couple 2nd rounders.....what if the Clippers wanted Brunson? Brunson and Matthews for Capela?

Barnes
Randle or Gordon
Capela
Smith
Doncic

DevinHarriswillstart · 06-26-2018, 04:42 PM

Yeah, more you think about it, the more it makes no sense to want him to opt in. Clippers can trade him anywhere.

I think a 3/60 is a sweet spot offer. Otherwise, pass.

EricaLubarsky · 06-26-2018, 06:46 PM

Rivers for Gortat. Doc trades his kid for a washed up center

Why would they want both Gortat and Jordan?

sefant77 · 06-26-2018, 06:51 PM

Guess Jordan told them he is opting out.

SGA is their future PG, Robinson their future SG and they are allready longterm comitted to L.Williams.

Me.B · 06-26-2018, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Rivers for Gortat. Doc trades his kid for a washed up center

Why would they want both Gortat and Jordan?

Precursor to a DJ trade.

EricaLubarsky · 06-26-2018, 07:55 PM

FWIW

Among centers, Deandre Jordan ranks:
1st in rebound rate
1st in defensive rebound rate
4th in offensive rebound rate
9th in EWA
16th in PER

Dude was the best rebounder in the league last year. He just wasn't great offensively and was surprisingly bad defensively. Then again, few starting centers have huge defensive impacts.

EricaLubarsky · 06-26-2018, 08:07 PM

Mavs after today's QO deadline:

Contracts
Barnes - 24.1
Matthews - 18.6
Powell - 9.6
Dirk - 5.0 (TO)
Luka - 4.7
McDermott 4.5 (QO or RFA)
Smith - 3.8
Barea - 3.7
Yogi - 2.9 (QO or RFA)
Mejri - 1.8 (QO or RFA)
DFS - 1.5m (unguaranteed)
Kleber - 1.4m (unguaranteed)
Collinsworth - 1.4 (unguaranteed)

Depth Chart
Powell/Dirk/Mejri
???/Kleber/???
Barnes/Matthews/McDermott/DFS
Doncic/???
Smith/ Barea/ Yogi

UFAs
Seth Curry
Josh McRoberts
Nerlens Noel
Kyle Collinsworth
Jeff Whithey
Aaron Harrison

------------------------
13 guys on contract (although the Mavs can walk away from Dirk, Collinsworth, Kleber and DFS. They're all either unguaranteed or team option)
83.0mill in contracts if all TOs are picked up and the rest are waived
101mill - predicted to be the cap next year

18mill - amount of cap if we keep all TOs
28.3 - the amount of cap if we waive/buyout/reject TO on Dirk, Collinsworth, Kleber, and DFS

hayth.james.g · 06-26-2018, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

FWIW

Among centers, Deandre Jordan ranks:
1st in rebound rate
1st in defensive rebound rate
4th in offensive rebound rate
9th in EWA
16th in PER

Dude was the best rebounder in the league last year. He just wasn't great offensively and was surprisingly bad defensively. Then again, few starting centers have huge defensive impacts.

His march split was super impressive.

14 PPG, 17.1 RPG, 64% FG % on almost 32 minutes a game.

Not to mention his fit with Doncic and DSJ couldn't be better. With our system, I bet he averages 14/14.

mac222b · 06-26-2018, 08:12 PM

Jesus that Wes Matthews deal. What a bunch of rubes. Gave him extra money AND the PO. Would be a serious FA player without his albatross

Underdog · 06-26-2018, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Dude was the best rebounder in the league last year. He just wasn't great offensively and was surprisingly bad defensively. Then again, few starting centers have huge defensive impacts.

I bet circumstances had a lot to do with it... All the guys who locked him in a room to keep him in LA have left -- what did he have to play for? Also, losing CP3 will hurt that offensive production... I wonder if a change of scenery with DSJ and Luka feeding him easy buckets can fix things?

tap2390 · 06-26-2018, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mac222b

Jesus that Wes Matthews deal. What a bunch of rubes. Gave him extra money AND the PO. Would be a serious FA player without his albatross

Serious FA player for who? We weren’t getting Lebron / George anyways.

The more I think about it the more I prefer telling DeAndre to fuck off and picking up Favors on a large one-year deal.

MaverickBueno40 · 06-26-2018, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

I bet circumstances had a lot to do with it... All the guys who locked him in a room to keep him in LA have left -- what did he have to play for? Also, losing CP3 will hurt that offensive production... I wonder if a change of scenery with DSJ and Luka feeding him easy buckets can fix things?

Change of scenery can be good

SMC0007 · 06-26-2018, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tap2390

Serious FA player for who? We weren’t getting Lebron / George anyways.

The more I think about it the more I prefer telling DeAndre to fuck off and picking up Favors on a large one-year deal.

I wanna tell Daj to fuck off period! I might let him apologize and then offer him a deal because on the court he would be the best fit of all followed closely by Capella.

mac222b · 06-26-2018, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tap2390

Serious FA player for who? We weren’t getting Lebron / George anyways.

The more I think about it the more I prefer telling DeAndre to fuck off and picking up Favors on a large one-year deal.

We could’ve had enough to offer Gordon and sign DJ. Or fill in the blank with whatever wing. I guess it’s possible LAC will take back Wes but not holding my breath

mac222b · 06-26-2018, 08:37 PM

I like Favors well enough but he’s always dinged up

DevinHarriswillstart · 06-26-2018, 08:58 PM

You know what Jordan is more than anything? Reliable. The guy has only missed 11 games in 6 seasons.

Me.B · 06-26-2018, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Mavs after today's QO deadline:

Contracts
Barnes - 24.1
Matthews - 18.6
Powell - 9.6
Dirk - 5.0 (TO)
Luka - 4.7
McDermott 4.5 (QO or RFA)
Smith - 3.8
Barea - 3.7
Yogi - 2.9 (QO or RFA)
Mejri - 1.8 (QO or RFA)
DFS - 1.5m (unguaranteed)
Kleber - 1.4m (unguaranteed)
Collinsworth - 1.4 (unguaranteed)

Depth Chart
Powell/Dirk/Mejri
???/Kleber/???
Barnes/Matthews/McDermott/DFS
Doncic/???
Smith/ Barea/ Yogi

UFAs
Seth Curry
Josh McRoberts
Nerlens Noel
Kyle Collinsworth
Jeff Whithey
Aaron Harrison

------------------------
13 guys on contract (although the Mavs can walk away from Dirk, Collinsworth, Kleber and DFS. They're all either unguaranteed or team option)
83.0mill in contracts if all TOs are picked up and the rest are waived
101mill - predicted to be the cap next year

18mill - amount of cap if we keep all TOs
28.3 - the amount of cap if we waive/buyout/reject TO on Dirk, Collinsworth, Kleber, and DFS

Where’s Brunson? Unless he’s traded I’d say it’s very likely he makes the team.

EricaLubarsky · 06-26-2018, 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Me.B

Where’s Brunson? Unless he’s traded I’d say it’s very likely he makes the team.

Second rounders have no contract obligations. We can put him (as well as Kosta and Spalding) in Europe, ignore them, or sign them to minimum contracts which won’t impact the cap. Lots of moving pieces, but cap space really isn't an issue. We may just have to go to or above the cap before we sign any of our second rounders.

The only real issue with Brunson is room on the roster and I think they’ll make room for him on the 12 man roster. May walk away from Collinsworth and trade Barea or Yogi.

Me.B · 06-26-2018, 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Second rounders have no contract obligations. We can put him (as well as Kosta and Spaulding) in Europe, ignore him, or sign him to a minimum contract which won’t impact the cap.

The only real issue with Brunson is room on the roster and I think they’ll make room for him on the 12 man roster.

Oh ok. Do you think they are factoring in 2021 free agency into any contract they sign or trade for? That’s when Giannis is free and it’s no secret they regret trading away from him in the draft.

Underdog · 06-26-2018, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Me.B

Oh ok. Do you think they are factoring in 2021 free agency into any contract they sign or trade for? That’s when Giannis is free and it’s no secret they regret trading away from him in the draft.

I'd be surprised if the FO offered more than 3 years to anyone who isn't an All-Star... But even if they did, we have Wes coming off the books next summer and Barnes expiring the summer after that... There's plenty of time to free up space for 2021.

mac222b · 06-26-2018, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

You know what Jordan is more than anything? Reliable. The guy has only missed 11 games in 6 seasons.

Exactly. That definitely recommends DJ. Favors has never played a full season if I’m remembering right.

Me.B · 06-26-2018, 11:01 PM

Some info on Nurkic.

https://twitter.com/coopmavs/status/...027514880?s=21

3_Ball · 06-27-2018, 03:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Barnes is more than fine. He came here and improved almost everything with nothing around him. I don't have an issue with his contract either. He's been the exact opposite of Parsons and Wes on making good on contracts that were overpayed up front.

I don't disagree with your points. However, I'm looking at the Barnes contract from a different perspective than you've listed. I agree, Barnes puts forth maximum effort. He has improved in many areas of his game (albeit it looks like he took a step back defensively, which may have more to do with changing roles than ability), and by every account he's a terrific teammate.

I posted this video earlier in this thread: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=344928ymZJY

MDJ, one of the better YouTube NBA posters imo, discusses the strategy of finding undervalued contracts. One of the lines from his video is "Not all Max contracts are created equal" i.e. KD is paid the max and so is Blake Griffin, but the Pistons are not receiving the same return for their dollar that the Warriors are in terms of value.

Here's the list of NBA players currently under contract for over $20 mil per season in '18-'19:

Steph Curry $37.4 mil
Russell Westbrook $35.4 mil
Blake Griffin $32.1 mil
Gordon Hayward $31.2 mil
Kyle Lowry $31 mil
Mike Conley Jr $30.5 mil
James Harden $30.4 mil
Paul Millsap $29.7 mil
Al Horford $28.9 mil
Carmelo Anthony $27.9 mil
Damian Lillard $27.9 mil
DeMar DeRozan $27.7 mil
Jrue Holiday $26.1 mil
Otto Porter Jr $26 mil
CJ McCollum $25.8 mil
Andre Drummond $25.4 mil
Hassan Whiteside $25.4 mil
Anthony Davis $25.4 mil
Bradley Beal $25.4 mil
Andrew Wiggins $25.2 mil
Kevin Love $24.1 mil
Harrison Barnes $24.1 mil
Chandler Parsons $24.1 mil
Marc Gasol $24.1 mil
Giannis Antetokounmpo $24.1 mil
Steven Adams $24.1 mil
Nicolas Batum $24 mil
Dwight Howard $23.8 mil
Rudy Gobert $23.5 mil
LaMarcus Aldridge $22.3 mil
Serge Ibaka $21.7 mil
Danil Gallinari $21.6 mil
Victor Oladipo $21 mil
Jimmy Butler $20.4 mil
Ryan Anderson $20.4 mil
Kyrie Irving $20.1 mil
Kawhi Leonard $20.1 mil

If you look at only players with $5 mil of Barnes' salary, I'd rather have:

Giannis Antetokounmpo
Anthony Davis
Kawhi Leonard
Dame Lillard
Victor Oladipo
Kyrie Irving
Rudy Gobert
Bradley Beal
Al Horford
Jimmy Butler
CJ McCollum
Andre Drummond
DeMar DeRozan
Kevin Love
Marc Gasol

For me, Wiggins, Adams, and Aldridge are all about a tie with Barnes.

Which means that out of 29 contracts within Barnes' range, for next season, I would rank Barnes' value between 16th and 19th in that grouping. Which puts Barnes' contract, for me, somewhere between roughly the 38th & 48th percentile in terms of value.

If you look back at championship teams, their star players were outperforming their contracts compared to their peers. They weren't in the 38th to 48th percentile. Which for me, just makes sense. I remember being happy the Mavs signed Harrison Barnes, but I never remember thinking "DAMN! We just got the cornerstone piece to our next championship." Barnes is in that midway to just below average point of top NBA players, if you ask me.