Page 2's Fantasy Draft Includes Dirk as #7

[Mavs Rule]

Below is Bill Simmon's take on the upcoming FANTASY draft. Dirk is brought up ever so briefly, twice in this article. Where is Dirk in your fantasy draft?

TIER I: THE STUD OF STUDS

1. LeBron James
You know what you're getting at this point: A 30-7-7, 82 games and the comfort of knowing the most indestructible basketball force alive is anchoring your team. It's difficult to place him in any kind of historical perspective for fantasy, but let's try. Remember when I created the "42 Club" in 2006 for stars who averaged at least 42 per playoff game in combined points, rebounds and assists? (Note: In the irony of ironies, Dirk Nowitzki, the subject of that column, fell just shy of the 42 Club when he imploded in the Finals.) Well, I thought I would create a "42.4 Club" for every regular season since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976.

<edit: skipped most of the seemingly unending elaboration on the 42.4 Club>

Which brings us to young LeBron. Jordan's 48.5 in 1989 was the modern high for the 42.4 Club. This season or next, I predict LeBron will break that mark with something like a 32-9-8. But how high can he go? Will he break 50? What about Oscar territory with a 33-10-10? There's an excellent chance LeBron James will have the greatest fantasy season since Kareem submitted a jaw-dropping 35-17-5 in 1972 -- back when we didn't keep track of blocks and steals and nobody even knew what "fantasy" was -- and there's a decent chance Bron could unleash that season on a very good (and slightly underrated) Cleveland team. Anyway, I think you should draft him first in your fantasy draft. That's my expert opinion.

TIER II: THE CROP'S CREAM

2. Dwyane Wade
Loved him in the Olympics, loved him in the preseason, love him for a monster comeback season that will be the athletic equivalent of "Still D.R.E." I'm thinking something like 29.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg and 5.8 apg and a slew of "D-Wade is back and better than ever!" stories starting in late November. You watch.

3. Amare Stoudemire
The home run pick since he is headed for a vintage Karl Malone season (something like a 29-10). If he counts as a center in your league, definitely move him above Wade. And if you're worried about his knees, I saw him in person for a Clips-Suns game Tuesday and kept thinking the same thing for two hours: Fantasy force ... fantasy force ... fantasy force ...

4. Chris Paul
Something weird happened with him this year -- he's so much fun to watch that he became slightly overrated as a fantasy guy. For instance, ESPN.com has him ranked second. Really? Let's say he averages a 21-12 with three steals and world-class shooting percentages. If that's what I'm getting from the No. 2 pick in my draft, I'm losing my league. Do not take him before here.

5. Dwight Howard
The best and safest center option: You know he's giving you 82 games and a 21-14 with two blocks per game and 60 percent shooting ... and that's a worst-case scenario. Now if we could only figure out how the NBA's No. 5 fantasy guy and best rebounder was the inferior big man in both medal-round games this August. I still haven't gotten over that one.

6. Kobe Bryant

Kobe Bryant played in 103 NBA games last season … then in another eight at the Olympics.
Did you know Kobe's odometer passed 1,000 career games (including playoffs) last spring? If we have learned anything through 62 NBA seasons other than "It's not a good idea to start five white guys" and "Don't hire Isiah Thomas," it's this: No matter how great a perimeter player you are, your statistical fade will commence soon after you hit the 1,000-game mark. It's inevitable. When it happens to Hollywood actresses, they can get a tummy tuck, a face-lift, Botox and implants for their saggy breasts. We don't have those things for NBA players. In Kobe's case, watch a Lakers game from 2000-2002 (back when he had his hops) and watch him now; he doesn't have the same explosiveness in his legs anymore, and unlike Michael Jordan, he never developed a power low-post game to give himself a second life. The Celtics shut Kobe down in the Finals simply by staying in front of him, forcing him to hoist jumpers and collapsing on him every time he attacked the basket. He didn't have a Plan B. That's why the Lakers lost, and that's why Kobe checked out near the end of the second quarter of Game 6 and started thinking about the Olympics.

So that's one problem. The other? Kobe will be forced to do more accommodating than ever to make up for the Lakers' quirky roster. Gasol needs 14-15 shots a game or he'll start sulking like he did in Memphis. Bynum needs his share of touches because he's trying to prove he's worth $70 million. Then you have Odom, who's heading into a contract season and already griping because he'd help them more by coming off the bench, something he doesn't want to do because, again, he's in a contract season. Play all three at the same time, and the middle will be too clogged for Kobe, which means you can expect the following things: tons of sarcastic head shaking, tons of 20-footers and more than a few moments when Kobe angrily waves one of them out of the paint with his patented, "These guys are so dumb, I can't stand it" sneer. As a kicker, their best lineup remains Fisher and Vujacic at the guards, Kobe at the 3, and Gasol with Odom or Bynum up front ... which allows opponents to defend Kobe with bigger players and opens the door for more spotty offensive efforts from Kobe like what we witnessed in the 2008 Finals.

And here's where the Olympics killed Black Mamba. With a free summer, he could have devoted two solid months to getting stronger and mastering that same fallaway turnaround that carried Jordan to those last three titles. Instead, he's coming back as the exact same guy we watched last season -- right down to his injured pinkie -- only he's a year older and coming off a 103-game season plus the Olympics. This is all a complicated way of saying that you should be careful about building your 2009 fantasy team around Kobe Bryant.

(P.S.: If LeBron ever gets serious one summer and masters that MJ turnaround instead of doing his multimedia routine, it's all over. We will have to fold the league. Let's hope nobody shows him this column.)

7. Dirk Nowitzki
The first-ever "Eff-You Avery!" season. Take him here unless you hate German forwards who will average a 26-9 and a 40-50-90 in the three shooting-percentage categories.

[Mavs Rule]

Damn, you guys not into fantasy? I think this is the first thread I have started that hasn't had a reply. Oh well, my bad on the new thread.

[sike]

We don't talk fantasy in this section usually...

Dirk at 7 is fine with me.

[Burn this City]

I think Simmons underrates Kobe...

[fluid.forty.one]

I would never draft Dwight that high up.

[Tokey41]

Wade at 2 is a little crazy given the number of quality sg's fairly high on ESPN's player rater (Kobe, Wade, Igoudala, Durant, Richardson, Carter, Johnson, etc.). If Amare's center eligible it should be no contest... not to mention the lack of quality point guards.

Dirk's numbers are going to be great this year, i'd feel good taking him at #5 even.