02-04-2010, 10:01 AM
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#1
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Screw a "system" - drafting is an organic process, something you have to feel out on a very individual basis; player-by-player, position-by-position, team-by-team.
It's an art, not a science...
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These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
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02-04-2010, 10:07 AM
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#2
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Just outside the Metroplex
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdog
Screw a "system" - drafting is an organic process, something you have to feel out on a very individual basis; player-by-player, position-by-position, team-by-team.
It's an art, not a science...
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For the sake of argument.
Why pay for a scouting department then? Just read Kiper and roll the dice -- you would have just as good of luck.............and save lots of money on salaries.
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"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have". Gerald Ford
"Life's tough, it's even tougher if you're stupid." -John Wayne
There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty:
soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order.
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02-04-2010, 10:17 AM
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#3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalmations202
For the sake of argument.
Why pay for a scouting department then? Just read Kiper and roll the dice -- you would have just as good of luck.............and save lots of money on salaries.
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I never said they shouldn't do their research - art and science can use the same tools, it's just a different approach.
You don't simply assign number values to a player and pick 'em - good picks come from the gut (not to mention that any type of numbers system only works in a vacuum.)
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson
__________________
These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
your team loses. That proves you love winning more. That's how it works.
Last edited by Underdog; 02-04-2010 at 10:17 AM.
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02-04-2010, 10:29 AM
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#4
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Just outside the Metroplex
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdog
I never said they shouldn't do their research - art and science can use the same tools, it's just a different approach.
You don't simply assign number values to a player and pick 'em - good picks come from the gut (not to mention that any type of numbers system only works in a vacuum.)
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson
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For the sake of argument, and I'd rather do this than work right now.
But what if you have acid indigestion that day. That pick from the gut might have just been the pepperoni talking. It is a long couple of days. Wasn't Quincy Carter a gut thing?
Oh yea -- Buster Douglas had a plan -- stay in the ring and wear big Mike out. And his research and plan worked even when he got punched in the mouth. Many plans work great if you put the time and effort into them.
__________________
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have". Gerald Ford
"Life's tough, it's even tougher if you're stupid." -John Wayne
There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty:
soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order.
-Capt. Bob "Wolf" Johnson
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02-04-2010, 10:41 AM
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#5
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalmations202
For the sake of argument, and I'd rather do this than work right now.
But what if you have acid indigestion that day. That pick from the gut might have just been the pepperoni talking. It is a long couple of days. Wasn't Quincy Carter a gut thing?
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Was Quincy Carter a gut decision? Are you sure he wasn't part of a numbers system? He was drafted based on need.
You can do all the research in the world, create all the spreadsheets and charts you want, but you might be forced to change (or abandon) your plan quickly when names start flying off the board (especially if your team has needs.)
__________________
These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
your team loses. That proves you love winning more. That's how it works.
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02-04-2010, 11:42 AM
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#6
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Just outside the Metroplex
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdog
Was Quincy Carter a gut decision? Are you sure he wasn't part of a numbers system? He was drafted based on need.
You can do all the research in the world, create all the spreadsheets and charts you want, but you might be forced to change (or abandon) your plan quickly when names start flying off the board (especially if your team has needs.)
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I agree with the "have to be fluid" part of it.
I also think that you draft based on weighted BPA -- and needs come from FA.
A points system just allows you to try and take some of the as Bill said "red herring players" out of it. It also allows you to actually utilize the strengths of the guys you hire.
With that said, you are still using your "gut" when you determine how much to weight the "areas" you give the points to - and when you determine the level points you give the players. It isn't anywhere near an exact science or let's face it Austin and Romo would have at least been drafted. They didn't get on the board via, gut, science or any other reason other than someone said -- I'll take a chance after the draft -- and both were in the ProBowl this year.
Bills system got the Cowboys Jacob Rogers, but also Demarcus Ware.
Toms system got the Cowboys Tony Dorsett, but also Rod Hill.
Jimmy got 47 people to choose from with all the draft picks he got from the Hershal trade.
Dallas has missed lots of players, and hit on many of them.
I just like the weighted number way, and weigh it against the value of where you are picking.
__________________
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have". Gerald Ford
"Life's tough, it's even tougher if you're stupid." -John Wayne
There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty:
soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order.
-Capt. Bob "Wolf" Johnson
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02-04-2010, 12:33 PM
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#7
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Platinum Member
Join Date: May 2006
Location: north texas
Posts: 2,186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalmations202
Bills system got the Cowboys Jacob Rogers, but also Demarcus Ware.
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technically jerry's system got ware. bill was gonna take spears there.
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Texas Rangers 2011 Regular Season Win/Losses
24-23
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02-04-2010, 12:32 PM
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#8
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Platinum Member
Join Date: May 2006
Location: north texas
Posts: 2,186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdog
I never said they shouldn't do their research - art and science can use the same tools, it's just a different approach.
You don't simply assign number values to a player and pick 'em - good picks come from the gut (not to mention that any type of numbers system only works in a vacuum.)
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I dunno. Landry and Gil Brandt kind of made scouting a science and it worked out pretty well for them. I think there's a comfortable middle somewhere in there, but just saying "i have a gut feeling this guy's gonna be good" gets you fired.
__________________
Texas Rangers 2011 Regular Season Win/Losses
24-23
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02-04-2010, 01:07 PM
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#9
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: 41.21.1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkat
I dunno. Landry and Gil Brandt kind of made scouting a science and it worked out pretty well for them. I think there's a comfortable middle somewhere in there, but just saying "i have a gut feeling this guy's gonna be good" gets you fired.
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Well, yeah, simply slapping some paint on a canvas doesn't make you an artist either. There's always a certain level of science behind any art form, but there really isn't an art to scientific formulas.
I'm only arguing against following a rigid mathematical template.
__________________
These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
your team loses. That proves you love winning more. That's how it works.
Last edited by Underdog; 02-04-2010 at 01:09 PM.
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