Futures Odds for 2013 - Best Value(s)?

[chumdawg]

Looking to give Vegas some action. Interested in your opinions on the futures lines. Let's start with the WC:

LAL 6/5
OKC 9/4
SAS 6/1
LAC 12/1
MEM 15/1
DAL 20/1
DEN 20/1
all others 50/1

I don't think I would ever, ever bet LA at that price. Too many unknowns still. I think there is probably some value in the OKC line (thanks to the Lakers being over-valued). The Clippers at 12/1 really stands out to me. That looks like the best value on the board. Probably some value in Dallas, too. Now for the East:

MIA 4/7
CHI 9/2
BOS 10/1
IND 12/1
NYK 15/1
BRK 15/1
PHI 15/1
all others 50/1

Could Miami possibly be worth betting 7 to win 4? My goodness. But, I think this actually may be a fair price. Much like in the West, the value may be with the second-ranked team. Getting 4.5 to 1 with Chicago is intriguing.

For the championship odds, you can basically simply double the conference odds for most teams. Here are the few at the top:

MIA 11/5
LAL 11/5
OKC 9/2
CHI 10/1
SAS 15/1

So...if you had $100 (or whatever is your taste) to spend on futures in Vegas, how would you split it up?

[saclare]

OKC would seem like a sure bet with that value but if Dwight Howard comes back full strength, they don't stand a chance against the Lakers. OKCs main issue came inside and the Howard trade could prove to be too tall of an order.

I like the looks/odds for CHI and BOS as well. I just think MIA will run away with it again, and I firmly belive Ray Allen makes them even better than last year.

I'd go all in on MIA championship...as much as I'd hate to see it, it's a pretty good bet and you'll walk away with $220.

Side note: I was just in Vegas and told myself I wanted to split up $20 bets on my favorite teams but got too preoccupied... Damn.

[LonghornDub]

Value-wise, I'd go in this order based on the payouts above:

1) SAS to win the West at 6:1
2) OKC to win the West at 9:4 (I agree with you--extra value here b/c the Lakers are overvalued)
3) Miami to win the East at 4:7 (agree with you again, this is so close to a lock assuming no major injury to LeBron--even an injury to Wade or Bosh and they probably win the East going away)
4) SAS to win the title at 15:1

Taking LAL or Miami to win the title is also an okay bet at 11:5, I guess, but at the same time, I want more than slightly double my money if I'm having to bet preseason on a team making it through 4 rounds, including a round against the best squad from the other side of the bracket. I'm with you on the Lakers WCF odds--I wouldn't touch that. No value there.

Dallas at 20:1 is also a nice dark horse bet. I wouldn't take LAC at 12:1 myself. I don't think they have the coaching chops nor the right pieces up and down the roster to go past the conference finals. If I were gonna bet Chicago, I'd take the 10:1 for them to win it all. The value on them winning the East at 9:2 isn't very good, considering they'd have to beat Miami still. It's gonna take a pretty miraculous comeback by Rose for them to get that far anyway.

[Dirkadirkastan]

I'm a little surprised Brooklyn got the odds it deserves.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

I'm a little surprised Brooklyn got the odds it deserves.

I chuckled a bit too when I saw them listed at the same odds as the Knicks.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Since I'm risk averse, I'd be more likely to split my money over several teams and accept the smaller rewards that go with it.

I agree with the assessment that the Lakers are overrated in the West. While possibly a severe threat, they're just not very profitable to lay any money on. I like the bets mentioned above and would select OKC, SAS, and DAL (I'll never give myself a reason to root against the Mavs) as my three horses in the race. I'd split my $100 as follows:

$61.76 on OKC
$28.68 on SAS
$9.56 on DAL

That way I double my money if ANY of the three wins the West, and I'd be betting against the Lakers plus the field. Not much sacrifice in return compared to betting it all on just the Lakers.

The East by comparison is a truly awful bet. It would be unwise to bet against Miami, as they are heavy favorites, but it would be just as unwise to bet for them, as there is almost no return value.

Now, you could take Miami out of the equation by employing a "breakeven" strategy on them. That is, you put just the right amount on them so that your total bet is returned exactly if they win. That way you don't spend too much on a poor value bet, but you're also not primed to lose anything against the favorite. But you'd still have to put down $63.64 just to break even, leaving you with a mere $36.36 to spend on the other teams.

With such a small remainder, you'd probably put it all on one team. Laying the remainder on Chicago would double your $100 if they win, and putting it on Boston instead would set you up to win $300 in addition to the return of your $100. Those aren't bad returns, given that you would only be betting against the non-Miami field.

If you like Indiana, you could split your $36.36 between them and Boston ($19.69 on Boston and $16.67 on Indiana), netting you a potential gain of $116.71 against the non-Miami field.

I don't like the Champ odds at all because there are too many teams. If I were to indulge in it, I might do something silly like set up a breakeven on MIA/LAL/OKC, then bet the rest on SAS/DAL over the field.

[chumdawg]

Very, very interesting.

[chumdawg]

Bump.