Official offseason 2013-2014 thread

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

The Stats: you have a 37.5% chance of landing at least a solid roleplayer between 25-30 in the draft. http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm. But instead, let's look at what the Mavericks have done in the draft. http://www.basketball-reference.com/...DAL/draft.html. While the Mavs haven't really underperformed, they've really not done anything of real value in the draft since Don was still here.

17th (where we drafted Zeller) - has a 45% chance of being a bust. We traded him for Cunningham, Crowder and James-- which I think increases our odds.*
25th (where DoJo was drafted) - 65% chance that you won't even get a backup.
28th (where Ager was drafted) - 80% chance that you won't even get a quality backup
29th (where we drafted J.Ho) - has a 75% chance of being a bust and he was an allstar
34th (where Fazekas was drafted) - 85% of failure
51st (where we drafted Foster) - has a 90% chance of being no more than a towel waver.

Considering the odds, I wouldn't say that we've been terrible at all. We're certainly not elite, but I wouldn't say that our draft was terrible because we didn't defy the odds. Mullens for Roddy was a decent trade. Zeller for Cunningham, Crowder and James was a good deal.

[nowhereman]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

17th (where we drafted Zeller) - has a 45% chance of being a bust. We traded him for Cunningham, Crowder and James-- which I think increases our odds.*
25th (where DoJo was drafted) - 65% chance that you won't even get a backup.
28th (where Ager was drafted) - 80% chance that you won't even get a quality backup
29th (where we drafted J.Ho) - has a 75% chance of being a bust and he was an allstar
34th (where Fazekas was drafted) - 85% of failure
51st (where we drafted Foster) - has a 90% chance of being no more than a towel waver.

Considering the odds, I wouldn't say that we've been terrible at all. We're certainly not elite, but I wouldn't say that our draft was terrible because we didn't defy the odds. Mullens for Roddy was a decent trade. Zeller for Cunningham, Crowder and James was a good deal.

Right - I agree that they have been in crappy drafting positions and it's hard to hit on a player. I fully supported the strategy at the time. It's still frustrating that guys like Glen Davis, Greivis Vasquez, Chandler Parsons, Paul Millsap, Taj Gibson, DaJuan Blair, Danny Green, Marc Gasol, etc. have been getting picked up after our selections, but there are a ton of other teams that passed on those guys as well.

I'll hold off on whether the Zeller pick was a good deal. It depends on what you're looking for (a single near-star player, a long term project, a couple of solid roleplayers, etc.).

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

NBADraft.net has us taking Glenn Robinson III and I'd be okay with that. http://nbadraft.net/players/glenn-robinson-iii

Although I'm pretty sure we'll trade the pick.

I really like Robinson III and would be happy if we got him.

Really warming up to Gorgui Deng though and hope he's there for us!
He's literally improving from one game to the next and is showing the ability to pass from the high post as well as knock down 10-15 jumpers

[mac222b]

The final indignity of this shitstorm of a season will come when everyone realizes OKC is picking 8 spots AHEAD of Dallas. Fun times!

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by mac222b

The final indignity of this shitstorm of a season will come when everyone realizes OKC is picking 8 spots AHEAD of Dallas. Fun times!

Its a sucking draft and Presti pissed his pants over the Lakers frontcourt and traded Harden instead of amnestying perkins and play smallball with Collison/Ibaka in the FC. This will hunt them for a long time.

[grndmstr_c]

Well, since my strategy of appeasing the basketball gods by not posting in this thread seems to have failed, here goes. Assuming neither of the two big fish FAs opt for Dallas, some things that appeal to me at the moment include:

- C/PF: trade for Gortat (some sort of multi-team trade involving Marion would make the most sense salary-wise), and re-sign Brandan as the third big in a primarily three-man rotation. I know the bit about Marcin complaining about his role in Phoenix's offense this year, but I'm inclined to give him a pass seeing as how he'd spent the previous two years playing in a pretty successful two-man game with Nash. I think he'd be a good fit with Dirk, a good fit in Rick's system, and a good starting complement to the change-of-pace that Brandan would represent off the bench.

- PG: Is Jack going to end up being the best value here? I don't see him as anything like an upper echelon floor general on the offensive end, but I presume he would help considerably on the defensive end relative to what Dallas has been getting from DC and MJ. Maybe that's good enough to justify making him the target at point and taking a bigger swing at another position.

[Bayliss]

Mavs offseason:

Draft some player that will not amount to sheet.

Not sign a big name free agent.

Donnie will look through the classifieds and sign Bobby Sura.

And Cubes will say how great Shark Tank is and buy your season tickets now!

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by Bayliss

Mavs offseason:

Draft some player that will not amount to sheet.

Not sign a big name free agent.

Donnie will look through the classifieds and sign Bobby Sura.

And Cubes will say how great Shark Tank is and buy your season tickets now!

Speaking of Bobbie Sura, I think you are forgetting a certain other point guard who played collegiate basketball in the state of Florida and who happens to be our very own property!

[TheGermanator]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

PG-

Billups
Lowry
Calderon
Jack
Livingston


C-

Bynum
Jefferson
Dalembert

Extras:

Blatche
Jr Smiff
N. Young
Belinelli

Late reply(I was scrolling through the whole discussion ha). But, I really hope we don't go after Nick Young. Sure, he can score in spurts, but, he takes way too many shots and is way too selfish.

[TheGermanator]

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

We really have nothing to trade in the offseason, Carter or Marion I guess. But no one is trading a top tier PG for Carter.

Despite our desperate need for a PG, I think the smart FO move is to spend money on C. The quality available at C this offseason is crazy. 2 top 10 centers (Howard, Jefferson, 3 if you count Bynum) and several others just outside that threshold (Pekovic, Splitter). The Mavs can't afford to miss out there IMHO. Then you pick up the best traditional point guard you can find.

Which is why I say we go after Pekovic & Calderon

[MavsFTR]

We can trade for better players if we offer to take back bloated contracts.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Speaking of Bobbie Sura, I think you are forgetting a certain other point guard who played collegiate basketball in the state of Florida and who happens to be our very own property!

.

DoJo?!

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by mac222b

.

DoJo?!

!

[Ninkobei]

The best thing about the Mavericks is that they aren't the Cowboys. Things could be worse, people! We could have franchised Eric Dampier and given Dojo a long-term deal.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by mac222b

.

DoJo?!

Are you crazy?

[sig]

I would rather have Mullens right now than Roddy.

[Melonhead]

Love how dirk is being vocal to Cuban and Donnie. If next season is like this season, dirk might be out.


There is no bitter expression hidden underneath Dirk Nowitzki's mangy beard. No covert biting of the tongue, either.

The Dallas Mavericks star may have been critical of his owner's approach in the past, back when the wounds of Mark Cuban's cold and calculated roster-building ways were still fresh. But as Nowitzki nears the end of this memorable stretch of 12 consecutive postseason berths and ponders his future, the future Hall of Famer who vowed not to shave until his team reached the .500 mark swears he's not still upset about the way Cuban broke up the 2010-11 championship team and ushered in all this mediocrity.

But if nothing has changed by next season, if the Mavericks' imperfect-but-prudent plan to counteract the league's harsh new collective bargaining agreement backfires because they aren't able to land an impactful free agent this summer and return to the elite level during the twilight of Nowitzki's career? Might Nowitzki — who will be a free agent next summer — considering retiring in a jersey other than the Mavs' one he has always worn?

"Now that I already reached my goal (of winning it all), I really want to finish my career in Dallas," Nowitzki told USA TODAY Sports recently. "But saying all that, I don't want another year next year with the same as this year, (with) the frustration and playing for the eight or nine seed. I think we all know that this is a very big summer for us. (Mavericks general manager) Donnie (Nelson) knows. Cuban knows. We want to get back to the championship level."

For all the talk of how fans of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies were the victims of this new NBA because of the James Harden and Rudy Gay trades that were ripple effects of the altered landscape in the league, none paid a steeper price than Nowitzki. At 33 years old, on the heels of a title that took 13 seasons in the league to win, a premier player in his prime was asked to wait patiently while the Mavericks balanced their salary cap books with the hopes of signing their next superstar rather than retain the likes of Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler and J.J Barea.

Cuban took the pragmatic approach, deciding to rebuild responsibly around Nowitzki rather than have an older, high-priced payroll that — as he saw it — wasn't going to repeat as champions and would take him out of the free-agent game for summers to come. It was, in a sense, the all or nothing, anti-Boston Celtics plan, one that could come with long-term payoff but would require some pain in the short term.

Or, as Nowitzki put it back in early January, it was the "building-on-hope" route, one that is still playing out but has thus far led to a 36-30 record last season and first-round sweep by Oklahoma City to this foreign idea of being done for good in mid-April this season.

"I tried to make the best out of it the last two years, and then I had some injury problems," said Nowitzki, the former MVP who missed the first 27 games because of right knee surgery but has looked like himself again of late. "But looking back, I think it was sad. I miss some of those guys we went to war with every night, but I think it's going to be a big summer for us."

Yet because their No. 1 free agent target last season, point guard Deron Williams, re-signed with the Brooklyn Nets rather than head for his hometown, the Mavericks' plan was, in essence, put on hold. They added the likes of O.J. Mayo, Chris Kaman, Darren Collison and Elton Brand in ways that didn't compromise the salary cap situation. And as this summer approaches, it's not as if the answers to the Mavericks' questions are coming any clearer.

Free-agents-to-be Dwight Howard of the Lakers and Chris Paul of the Clippers are expected by most to remain with their current teams, which may mean the Mavs pursue someone like Atlanta forward and fellow free-agent-to-be Josh Smith or perhaps do a deal for a young, dynamic player like Sacramento center DeMarcus Cousins. Nowitzki, said this summer will determine whether or not it was the right move.

"You can't really judge yet if it was a good move or the wrong move until you see what we get this summer," he said. "If we end up with nothing again and sign eight or nine (players on) one-year deals, then maybe it wasn't a good move to let everybody go. But if we can make this team younger and more explosive again and add a superstar, then maybe it wasn't all bad. I guess the judgment is still kind of out."

Cuban, who has consistently said he would not trade Nowitzki under any circumstances, is extremely sensitive to the idea that Nowitzki could ever don another jersey than the one he has worn since his rookie campaign in 1998.

"Of course he doesn't want to fight for an eighth seed in the future; none of us do," Cuban told USA TODAY Sports via e-mail. "Beyond that, like he has told me and the world, he can't see himself being anywhere else."

As Nowitzki is well aware, his ability to sip from the same fountain of youth as his contemporaries — from the Los Angeles Lakers' Kobe Bryant to San Antonio Spurs' Tim Duncan, Boston's Kevin Garnett and beyond — will have everything to do with the Mavericks' future too. Young players are watching his every move, wondering if he has enough left make Dallas as relevant as before. As for any thoughts on retirement, Nowitzki said he plans on signing another "two or three year deal" when his current contract expires after next season.

"Dallas has to be on the list of the top spots where (players) want to be," he said. "It's a great owner who supports you on and off the floor. It's a great city to live in … it's nice weather. The fans have always been there.

"I think it's the place to be, so hopefully some of the free agents are looking at us and want to join and obviously bring us back to where we want to be."

Nowitzki has looked more than worthy of late, never moreso than his 35-point outing at Chicago on March 30 in which he finished with a season-high 35 points on 14 of 17 shooting and scored Dallas' last eight points while hitting a game-winning three-pointer. And while 17.2 points-per-game pace is the lowest since his rookie season, he has averaged 19.4 points (53% shooting overall, 47.1% from three-point range) and 7.9 rebounds in the last 23 games while the Mavericks have gone 13-10.

"I feel good," Nowitzki said. "I'm moving better. I think it was frustrating for me in December and January, I think the mind was crystal clear and saw things and the body just couldn't respond to it. It's like you have to act within a split second out there, and I just couldn't go by anybody, I was a bad spot-up shooter. Hopefully I can keep this level up.

"I've put a lot of work into it since I came back — extra running, extra lifting, some cardio. And I guess when you're older you don't put as much time on the court anymore but the off court stuff is big. Strengthening your hips, and stuff like that is really important, getting pressure off your joints."

Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle, who has coached Nowitzki since 2008, expects him to be as good as ever in 2013-14.

"(The doctors) did whatever they needed to do in there (during the Oct. 19 arthroscopic knee surgery)," he told USA TODAY Sports. "Now he has the entire summer to cycle up to training camp.

"Mentally, I think he's looking at playing two or three more years, so as long as he's mentally locked in, his routine is always going to be consistent. He can keep playing at a superstar level. We've got to manage his situation the right way. We've got to get the right guys around him, to make sure we're playing him the right number of minutes, and all those things."

With the right players, and in the right jersey until the end.

"I've got obviously one more year on the contract next year, and by then I'm 36 and I'm sure I'll play a couple more years," he said. "It's kind of tough to say how long (he'll play). I'm thinking I'm going to sign another two or three year deal, and then slowly ride off."

"I don't want to be the guy who does it too long, you know? I want to be a guy who can still do some stuff at the end of his career, like Nashy (Lakers point guard and close friend of Nowitzki's, Steve Nash) and those guys — (Kevin Garnett) and Tim Duncan."

[yahyes]

The draft picks I think Mavs should get:

Kevin Olynyk
Ryan Kelly
Luke Hancock
Michael Carter-Williams

[EricaLubarsky]

Rudy Gobert isn't too bad. He's a poor man's Chandler-- goes hard to the rim and has crazy size.

[oilfieldtrash]

No to Calderon. Guy has no athleticism whatsoever.

Not sure what Dwight sees in LA basketball wise. Kobe is in full ball hog mode with no regard to others getting touches. He's gone back to pre Pau post Shaq Kobe that shoots his team completely out of the playoffs. At least in Dallas he would get touches and it would be his team. Dirk is the perfect compliment to Dwight. Spread the floor, unselfish, can pass, knows where to be. I see Dwight fitting just like Chandler except Dwight is Chandler on the Russian juicing project.

[Dirk's Knee]

A few other projections from mock drafts of who might go at the 13th spot which is likely our position:

Isaiah Austin - 7'1" center whose getting praise for defensive positioning as well as being a powerful offensive threat in the paint and has a decent jumper....but he only weighs 201 pounds (shudders at memories of Shawn Bradley). However, any team with a decent training staff should be able to get some weight on him.

Trey Burke - 6' scoring PG from Michigan being compared to Mo Williams. Of the list so far, I think he might be the best option if he's still available. Some lists have him shooting up the ranks after the NCAA tournament, we'll see if he's still trending that high come draft day.

Michael Carter-Williams PG - Not a great to to assist ratio, not sure I'd want a guy with those types of numbers in college.

Mason Plumlee C - 6'11' center whose a bit of a defensive liability due to a lack of speed, but he's been offensively effective and showed improved stats year after year at Duke.

Kelly Olynyk C - 7' center whose had some experience playing internationally. His main criticism are turnovers and questions about defensive toughness. That said, he's a big man who also has a solid jump shot which seem to do very well in the current NBA style of play.

[GermanStandard]

Burke will never be available at Pos. 12-14 (where the Mavs will pick).

He will go Top 5 pretty sure.


Robinson III should be available and a nice fit.

Carter-Williams is too raw, need a couple of more years to get strength and a Jumper.


Im all in for CJ McCollum at PG who should be available at 12-14

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

A few other projections from mock drafts of who might go at the 13th spot which is likely our position:

Isaiah Austin - 7'1" center whose getting praise for defensive positioning as well as being a powerful offensive threat in the paint and has a decent jumper....but he only weighs 201 pounds (shudders at memories of Shawn Bradley). However, any team with a decent training staff should be able to get some weight on him.

Trey Burke - 6' scoring PG from Michigan being compared to Mo Williams. Of the list so far, I think he might be the best option if he's still available. Some lists have him shooting up the ranks after the NCAA tournament, we'll see if he's still trending that high come draft day.

Michael Carter-Williams PG - Not a great to to assist ratio, not sure I'd want a guy with those types of numbers in college.

Mason Plumlee C - 6'11' center whose a bit of a defensive liability due to a lack of speed, but he's been offensively effective and showed improved stats year after year at Duke.

Kelly Olynyk C - 7' center whose had some experience playing internationally. His main criticism are turnovers and questions about defensive toughness. That said, he's a big man who also has a solid jump shot which seem to do very well in the current NBA style of play.

Dirk lite. But he wouldn't be a center in the NBA for a few years.

[Melonhead]

The guy that was banging around down low for Louisville last night? Whats his status?

[EricaLubarsky]

I think Burke may well go higher because final four guys and championship game guys always go higher than they perhaps should, but if he's available he will be a legitimate player either as a starter or off the bench.

Here's something to think about. Two players entered the draft after their Sophomore year. One entered as a junior. Here are the stats.

15.3ppg, 6.6apg, 4.5rpg (45% FG, 47.4% 3pt, 83.4% FT) in 33mpg
18.6ppg, 6.7apg, 3.2rpg (46.3% FG, 38.4% 3pt, 80.1% FT) in 35mpg
12.5ppg, 6.8apg, 3.6rpg (43.3% FG, 36.4% 3pt, 68% FT) in in 34mpg

Can you name the players?

hint: 1 was from Wake Forest, 2 was from Michigan, 3 was from Illinois

[MavsFTR]

So is the draft as weak as people were saying or are there enough good players to go around?

[yahyes]

I'd really consider Kevin Olynyke. He has good potential at the PF spot. Dirk needs a protege to help grow into his position through the years. Or we can draft Michael Carter-Williams. Hopefully try to mold him into a solid big PG. He's got the speed for it and a lot of quickness. His awareness also is nice, but will need to improve in his jump shot. I like his style of game though. Has the half court offense style of play to slow a defense down.

If we do get a PG first pick. I'd really consider Ryan Kelly as the next pick.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by MavsFTR

So is the draft as weak as people were saying or are there enough good players to go around?

No one knows until a few years down the line. There are more hyped players now than there were early. A lot of guys have emerged as potential high or medium upside players throughout the NCAA and European seasons. Scouts talk about deep drafts, but that's based on often unreliable metrics and excitement levels. 2011 was supposed to be one of the weakest drafts on record and we already have a few guys really turning it on. 2009 was supposed to be weak, too but we got Blake Griffin, James Harden, Rubio, Curry, Jennings and a few others. 2000 was supposed to be a moderately talented draft and turned out to be the single worst on record.

there will be surprises this year and there will be at least 1-2 future allstars in the bunch and not necessarily in the top 3. The stats guys are getting better at measuring athleticism and even advanced metrics to predict rebounding, shooting and finishing, but there is still the human element of drive, maturity, injuries, their current team, their future team makeup and how well those skills that were measured in pre-draft scouting translate to the next level where players are bigger and stronger. Dwayne Wade and Allen Iverson were small for their positions but both have an uncanny talent at finishing. Teams have drafted literally dozens of players to fit that mold, but only a few ever do.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

The guy that was banging around down low for Louisville last night? Whats his status?

Dieng? He is projected late lottery, but I think he could be a solid defensive center. Good rebounder, very good shot blocker, and he can hit a mid ranger every now and then.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

The guy that was banging around down low for Louisville last night? Whats his status?

sophomore

nbadraft.net
projects him to be a 2nd round pick in their 2014 mock.

He's 6-6 245.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

sophomore

nbadraft.net
projects him to be a 2nd round pick in their 2014 mock.

He's 6-6 245.

Slightly off on that height...I think Dieng will mold into an above-average player in the NBA and will be one of the better value picks of the draft. Of course, I also think 2nd round is a terrible prediction of his draft stock, which may have risen due to the tournament as well. Perhaps the Mavs can find value by trading back a little and gaining another pick, they seem to love to do that.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...6/gorgui-dieng

[MavsFTR]

May 21st is the day.

[SMC0007]

Probably not talking about Dieng. I think he means Montrez Harrell.

http://www.gocards.com/sports/m-bask...ll_815133.html

[Rick41]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Dieng? He is projected late lottery, but I think he could be a solid defensive center. Good rebounder, very good shot blocker, and he can hit a mid ranger every now and then.

Ibaka starter kit?

[grndmstr_c]

I maybe watch 6 college games a year, so draft speculation is always something of an educational experience for me. Did catch some late tournament games, though.

Thought Carter-Williams was intriguing, at least. Didn't really see him do anything all that impressive on offense, and the shooting is a concern, but he did look the part of a point guard, the value of the length goes without saying, and I liked what I saw out of him defensively. Imagine he'd be a good fit with a team and coach that likes to throw in liberal amounts of zone. I see some people/scouts praising his BBIQ, and others criticizing it, which is kinda funny, but pretty par for the course this time of year.

Siva looked like an interesting late second round/undrafted free agent kind of option.

[Bayliss]

Siva looked like an interesting late second round/undrafted free agent kind of option.

Or a mid first rounder the way the Mavs select players.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I maybe watch 6 college games a year, so draft speculation is always something of an educational experience for me. Did catch some late tournament games, though.

Thought Carter-Williams was intriguing, at least. Didn't really see him do anything all that impressive on offense, and the shooting is a concern, but he did look the part of a point guard, the value of the length goes without saying, and I liked what I saw out of him defensively. Imagine he'd be a good fit with a team and coach that likes to throw in liberal amounts of zone. I see some people/scouts praising his BBIQ, and others criticizing it, which is kinda funny, but pretty par for the course this time of year.

Siva looked like an interesting late second round/undrafted free agent kind of option.

Really? He's not making it that far down. If he is there when we pick, I'd be surprised.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Really? He's not making it that far down. If he is there when we pick, I'd be surprised.

In the mocks and draft boards I've looked at that's where he's been projected. Have you seen one that has him listed higher up?

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Are you crazy?

Couldn't resist getting in one last DoJo joke

Seriously, what is the deal with Calathes?

[Bayliss]

Calathas will be like every other European player the Mavs have pretty much drafted..... they hold his rights. He signed a long term deal in the EuroLeague (or whatever league it was....) and the odds of him getting out of his contract over there to make pennies over here is virtually nil.