The "STFU Moronic/Shortsighted Pessimists, Lets Talk About This Team's Upside" Thread

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

This teams "upside" is still the 8th spot. So yeah, there hasn't really changed a lot.

That sounds pretty short-sighted considering: 1) they're almost halfway through the season and they still haven't had the benefit of franchise-player Dirk, and 2) *if* they get into the playoffs they will have done it by closing out the season playing at a considerably higher level than would ever be expected of an 8th seed. That might still not account for more than a first-round out given the inevitable difficulty of their first-round matchup, but taken in full context the "upside" of an 8th seed would still unarguably imply that Dallas fielded a strong, competitive team this year.

[j0Shi]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

That sounds pretty short-sighted considering: 1) they're almost halfway through the season and they still haven't had the benefit of franchise-player Dirk, and 2) *if* they get into the playoffs they will have done it by closing out the season playing at a considerably higher level than would ever be expected of an 8th seed. That might still not account for more than a first-round out given the inevitable difficulty of their first-round matchup, but taken in full context the "upside" of an 8th seed would still unarguably imply that Dallas fielded a strong, competitive team this year.

True.

I think though reaching the playoffs is only possible if teams like Houston (5-game losing streak! ya!) and Utah will experience a serious dropoff and finish well below 43 wins. Don't think Portland will be a real threat long term, Wolves are injury-bitten, so there would be room for Dallas and the Lakers. We should hope to sneak in there with 40 wins and the right tiebreakers, which means a 27-19 record in the remainder (including the current streak). That record for 46 games translates into 48 wins for a 82-game season. 48 win in the West is good for the 7th seed. So I would correct the "upside" one spot.

If they do come up with 43+ wins, meaning going 30-16 or better along the way, it would truly be impressive.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

True.

I think though reaching the playoffs is only possible if teams like Houston (5-game losing streak! ya!) and Utah will experience a serious dropoff and finish well below 43 wins. Don't think Portland will be a real threat long term, Wolves are injury-bitten, so there would be room for Dallas and the Lakers. We should hope to sneak in there with 40 wins and the right tiebreakers, which means a 27-19 record in the remainder (including the current streak). That record for 46 games translates into 48 wins for a 82-game season. 48 win in the West is good for the 7th seed. So I would correct the "upside" one spot.

If they do come up with 43+ wins, meaning going 30-16 or better along the way, it would truly be impressive.

I've been assuming a winning season (in the neighborhood of 43+) would be required to get in to the playoffs, so that's the hypothetical bar I'm measuring them against. Regardless, it's definitely still too early to say how close reality will get to rosy upside. Overall during their recent winning streak and the preceding stretch of close road losses against playoff teams and/or in unfriendly arenas I'd say they've looked about like an 8th seed, give or take. And wherever they end up in the regular season rankings I'd assume everyone is in agreement that if a trip to the playoffs is going to have any chance of being worthwhile, they'll definitely have to take their play up a couple notches.