Hollinger: Bass Probably Over His Head Last Year

[Mavs Rule]

He has Dallas as a probable fade team in the second half. With us probably reducing stack and increasing green, I see a second half surge. Take that John!

2008-09 All-Decline Team: Taking a step back
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
(Archive)
Updated: October 31, 2008

For every action, there must be an equal and opposite reaction. Hard-core geeks know this as Isaac Newton's third law of motion, but basketball fans are familiar with the concept in a much simpler way: If some players improve, others must get worse, relative to the league.

Along with that unfortunate reality comes the unpleasant actuarial task of identifying who, exactly, these players will be. For 20 players to break out this season, as I projected earlier this month, an equal number must take steps backward.

Thus, once again, I present the All-Decline Team. And as with the All-Breakout Team, it's time to look back at my performance from last season. A year ago, I nominated 23 players to the team; while three of the predictions turned out to be spectacularly wrong (Caron Butler, Manu Ginobili and Andre Miller), the other 20 players had declines that ranged from slight to severe.

Again, "decline" is always relative -- if I pick an All-Star to decline this season, I'm not saying he's going to suddenly turn into Brian Cardinal. I'm just projecting that the numbers he puts up this season won't be as good as the ones he put up last season.

Undoubtedly, a couple of these guys will buck the trend. Nonetheless, I expect at least 16 of them to be worse this season than they were in 2007-08. So without further ado, 2008-09's All-Decline Team:


Group I: The Fluke Rule guys

Usually, I depend on Fluke Rule players to build a quarter of my All-Decline roster, but they're a scarce breed this season. Only four players qualify for the Fluke Rule, rather than the usual six or seven. Of those, one will miss most or all of the season (Brendan Haywood) and another doesn't have a team yet (Bonzi Wells). That leaves me with a two-man Fluke Rule roster.

The Fluke Rule, if you aren't familiar, states that a player who is older than 28, has a Player Efficiency Rating higher than 14 and increased his PER by at least three points from the previous season is 90 percent likely to perform worse the next season. Last season, the rule went 7-for-7 with Jamaal Tinsley, Mikki Moore, Darrell Armstrong, Chucky Atkins, Tim Duncan, Devin Brown and Ruben Patterson.

Brad Miller, Kings
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Hedo Turkoglu, Magic
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Group II: Field goal flukes

This one has a simple explanation: Two-point shooting percentage is among the flukiest of stats. When a guy has a percentage on 2s that is far off his career norm, sometimes it's because he genuinely got better -- but much of the time it's simply random variation gone wild. Given their histories going into last season, I'm dubious these three guys can keep shooting as well this season:

Sasha Vujacic, Lakers
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Mo Williams, Cavs
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Derek Fisher, Lakers
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Group III: Guys who probably were over their heads

For these guys, it isn't the 2-point percentage so much as the overall picture -- each was far better than expected last season, and each had or has injury questions in the preseason or opening games this year. Also, I'm highly suspicious of each's ability to provide an encore performance.


Mike Dunleavy, Pacers
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Carl Landry, Rockets
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James Jones, Heat
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Brandon Bass, Mavs
I can buy that Bass is an effective face-up scorer when he works against opposing big men. But a 54.4 percent shooter on long 2s? Sorry, I'm gonna need more evidence for that one.

He was a nice find, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to shoot quite so well this season.


Group IV: Older guards who can't shoot

One group of players that consistently has trouble keeping up its performance is guards who shoot poorly and are hitting or just past age 30 -- in particular, small guards who fit this description. If they lose a step, they have nothing to fall back on, and this is the age when most players lose a step.

Andre Miller, Sixers
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Rafer Alston, Rockets
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Allen Iverson, Nuggets
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Group V: Bigs with bigs

Pairing two hulking big men sounds good in theory. In practice, they often get in each other's way -- the most vivid example being the Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph experiment in New York last season. So it is that when one established 7-footer joins another, at least one inevitably suffers.

Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman, Clippers
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Pau Gasol, Lakers
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Group VI: The traditional Western powers

Group VII: Second-half faders
Which veterans could see a decline in their numbers based on last season's second-half fade? John Hollinger has the candidates.

I mentioned the East as one of my All-Breakout performers, and for that to be true, it stands to reason that the West must take a fall. In particular, I'm guessing the former holy trinity of Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio will fall on some hard times, at least relative to its previous glory. I projected all three to make the playoffs because, looked at on a one-by-one basis, you can't pick them to finish behind the likes of the Nuggets, Warriors and Wolves.

However, in the aggregate, you can reach a different conclusion. When you have three teams like this, with each facing serious age issues and with San Antonio facing at least one fairly serious injury question, there's a good chance that across the three, one of them will have a nasty surprise in store for us.

I don't know which one, but let's say there's a 25 percent chance per team that the Suns, Spurs or Mavs faceplant -- which seems plausible, given that each is an injury away from such a scenario and that each has several key players who are old enough to suddenly lose it.

If you buy that, you end up with a 58 percent chance that at least one of the three will take the plunge this year. In other words, in the case of any one of the three, it would be unexpected. Across the trio, however, there's a decent chance we get one collapse. I don't know which one it will be yet, but based on the opening week results, you could make a case for any of them.

[dude1394]

Really can't argue with his mavs comments...except where he talks injury...it's ludicrous to throw that in anytime.

So kobe goes down......they are gone.
Chris Paul..Deron Williams...gone.

[DavidDaMonkey]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Really can't argue with his mavs comments...except where he talks injury...it's ludicrous to throw that in anytime .

Unless, of course, you are talking about the Rockets.

[basketballgirl25]

that was a good ready, I'm thinking, Spurs won't be as good as past years, but I also think Shaq might start to lose it and Nash might start to slow down some also, and if the Mavericks aren't careful Kidd might not be as good. Kidd is still a great player, but when you get older it is a fact you have to watch out for things more.