Mavs Free Agency 11/12

[sefant77]

Lets use this thread for all rumors, potential contracts, price tags...

Mavs free agents:
Tyson Chandler
Caron Butler
JJ Barea
D.Stevenson
B.Cardinal
Peja Stojakovic

[Kante]

Chandler, Butler, Stevenson and look how much Barea will cost... Cardinal and Peja will stay for the vet. minimum.

[Scott McGuire]

I'd start a new thread, but this should work.

The only have-to sign player is Tyson. If we are going to come close to a repeat then he needs to be the guy jumping for the ball when we play the Heat on Christmas day.

What are the potential costs within the new CBA to signing Tyson?
How deep into the Luxury Tax are we?
Are they gradually phasing it in?
Should we use the amnesty clause (if there is one) on Haywood to sign Tyson?

I think this is where my focus is for the extremely short free agency period coming up.

[stuportremens]

Butler will be out.

Chandler absolutely needs to be resigned.
Would be tough to lose Barea, but I fear that some team might overpay for him.
Would like to have Stevenson back for the right price. Peja & Cardinal for vet minimum too.

[MavsFTR]

The number one guy we must sign is Tyson. Caron, I love you, but the Mavs proved your services aren't needed.

[bobatundi]

Will be interesting to see how the "amnesty" is worded/designed, and if the Mavs will be able to negotiate a deal with Tyson before they would have to make a decision on Haywood. I am guessing there won't be room, financially, for both guys on the roster--but if you don't have Tyson coming back, Haywood is better than any other option out there right now, seeing as how he's already signed.

The good news is, Tyson's an honorable guy--so even if he can't sign on the line before we clear space for him, if he agrees verbally, I am confident he will follow through--unlike Mourning a few years back.

[Melonhead]

The ball never gets rolling for the Mavs to win a championship if not for Chandler busting heads in the paint. He is the must-sign player if Dallas wants to get close to a repeat.

Must sign- Chandler

Then it goes:

Barea(Kidd isnt getting any younger)
Caron Butler

Card and Peja would sign for minimum. And Stevenson back for the right price.

[Underdog]

Chandler is definitely a *must* for us to be favorites to repeat.

Barea is likely out, but Roddy should be getting groomed to play PG if he's going to have any future in this league. Otherwise, there are some relatively cheap FA's on the market like T.J. Ford, Mike Bibby, Earl Boykins and Shannon Brown... Or maybe the Suns do something crazy like buy-out Steve Nash's contract, who knows? One thing I do know is that Barea will be a lot easier to replace than Chandler.

Butler and Stevenson are probably out, that's why we grabbed Fernandez and Brewer. We already proved that we can win it all without Butler and I think Threevenson has priced himself off of our roster the same way Barea has - those guys deserve to get overpaid.

We'll probably re-sign Peja on the cheap if he doesn't retire - he strikes me as the type of guy who can be honest with himself and the team about how much he has left in the tank.

I expect Cardinal to be back if there's a roster spot available. The guy knows his role and he does it well (hit the 3-ball, put Wade on his ass) - you can't ask for better from the end of your bench in this league. He's reliable.

[FINtastic]

Larry Coon with an early discussion of the new labor agree here:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/...abor-agreement

I don't think there's any way you can argue the Mavericks didn't come out as losers in this new deal, but at least there's this nugget:

The agreement is also said to include a relaxation of many of the system issues from the league's Nov. 10 proposal -- issues that led to the union's disclaimer and subsequent lawsuit. The league sought to control spending and improve competitive balance through a highly punitive luxury tax and further spending restrictions to be imposed on taxpaying teams, which the union considered unacceptable. Friday's compromise included the elimination of the smaller mid-level exception for taxpayers, the restoration of sign-and-trade and extend-and-trade transactions, and the removal of the harsher tax penalties for teams that are taxpayers four times in a five-year span.

"It's not the system we sought out to get in terms of a harder cap," Silver said, "but the luxury tax is harsher than it was in the past deal, and we hope it's effective."

With the elimination of the harsher penalties for taxpaying teams, the union hopes it is able to preserve the freedom of movement that is the lifeblood of free agency. It is over this issue that the players rejected the owners' proposal even after agreeing to a 50-50 revenue split, and the players would not have dissolved their union and filed a federal lawsuit just to accept a proposal that closely resembled the deal that was already on the table.

So the luxury tax is still getting harsher, but at least it doesn't sound like it will be as bad as some were speculating earlier. I'm still interested to see exactly how this all shakes out.

[dalger]

My priority list looks like this:

Chandler
.
.
JJB/Butler
Stevenson
Peja

I didn't include Cardinal on the list since I expect him to be back anyway for the minimum salary. There's no better 13th or 14th option.

Chandler's indeed a must. Our chances of repeating pretty much depend on him remaining a Mav. Although I appreciate their contributions to our run, Peja and Stevenson appear obsolete. If they were willing to re-sign for minimum salaries, I'd be more than happy to see them remain Mavericks as well. Otherwise, I'd much rather see our front office concentrate on Butler and JJB.

Things are tricky when it comes to JJB and Butler. We'll need a reliable backup point guard due to Kidd getting even older. JJB has proven that he can be just that. Not to mention that he's capable of adding another dimension to our game with his speed and ability to drive to the basket. Caron looked great prior to his injury and provided us with a perfect 3-man rotation at the forward spots (Dirk, Marion, Caron) that allowed us to keep all three guys' minutes in the low 30s. That's something that could be a pretty big advantage in a shortened, yet more intense season.

Presuming that we need or at least want to get better from within, Caron looks like the most promising option. Adding a player of his caliber and experience to a championship-level team could be big. Roddy, Rudy and Brewer might be alternative options in that respect, however, I wouldn't necessarily count on them to make major contributions. It could be both hit or miss, and a healthy Butler is better than all three of them anyway.

Long stories short, re-signing Chandler, Butler and JJB for a combined $18-20 million per year (if possible) sounds like a best-case scenario to me and would put our payroll at around $80-82 million.

That could be quite an expensive roster to have under the new CBA with its less enticing luxury tax system. Then again, the Lakers already have a payroll of $91 million for next season with only 11 players under contract. Orlando is at $75 million with 10 players signed, Boston at $72 million with 9 players.

[grndmstr_c]

Guessing the Mavs will have 15-20 million to spend in free agency. That's probably technically enough to re-sign TC, JJB and Caron, but I still think Dallas will walk away from matching offers they find excessive. Hoping the market ends up prioritizing Nene (which it should, IMO), and Dallas can make a strong enough initial push on Tyson (complete with an in-person appeal from Dirk) to get him to commit before Denver has a chance to respond. More than a little concerned about how NJ will end up playing things, though. I'll be stunned if they don't try to overspend on a big. If I'm Dallas, I'm putting in a call to Dalembert's agent first chance I get.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Guessing the Mavs will have 15-20 million to spend in free agency. That's probably technically enough to re-sign TC, JJB and Caron, but I still think Dallas will walk away from matching offers they find excessive. Hoping the market ends up prioritizing Nene (which it should, IMO), and Dallas can make a strong enough initial push on Tyson (complete with an in-person appeal from Dirk) to get him to commit before Denver has a chance to respond. More than a little concerned about how NJ will end up playing things, though. I'll be stunned if they don't try to overspend on a big. If I'm Dallas, I'm putting in a call to Dalembert's agent first chance I get.

I just had this conversation with a buddy of mine, definitely not a bad idea...

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I just had this conversation with a buddy of mine, definitely not a bad idea...

Dallas would likely need to work a double S&T to land him (I'm assuming that'll be legal), but damned if I can think of a better option to restore depth and balance to the center rotation if he bolts.

[dude1394]

I'm signing chandler and letting everyone else walk if I have to. He's currently a must have. .Period.

[Popeye]

The Mavs should re-sign Chandler but I hope they don't overpay. I don't think his free agent value is all that great. He's not young, not a star, and has had injury issues in the past. I think a deal at $10mm/year should get it done for the Mavs. Why would a team like the Nets pay more than that?

The Mavs have $64mm in salary committed already and signing Chandler probably puts them at $75mm, which is likely just above the luxury tax. Unless they amnesty Haywood, they'll probably say goodbye to JJB, Butler and Stevenson unless they get them for super cheap. Is JJB worth $3 mil in salary plus another $4.5 mil in luxury tax?

[dude1394]

I hope they don't overpay, but I would.

[dirno2000]

I think we amnesty Haywood regardless of what happens with Chandler. I don't know what this team is going to look like in 2 years but with the cap calculated on 50% of BRI instead of 57% there's no scenario where you want to owe Haywood ~$19M in 2014 and 2015 when he's 34 and 35 years old.

[sefant77]

I think it will depend how much Cuban is willing to spend LT for another year because next year are with Terry and Kidd 20m gone. Terry will stay for ~ BAE money, Kidd either vet minimum or retire. Anyway, it will reduce the payroll by 15-18m.

I think Cuban is fine with it spending something to repeat.

[grndmstr_c]

JJB, to my mind, would still be an asset at 3 million. Tyson and taxes aside, if he'll re-sign for that much, I think he's back: he clearly fills a need on the court in a breakneck season with no proven heir to Kidd, and his trade value would be intact at that price.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by dirno2000

I think we amnesty Haywood regardless of what happens with Chandler. I don't know what this team is going to look like in 2 years but with the cap calculated on 50% of BRI instead of 57% there's no scenario where you want to owe Haywood ~$19M in 2014 and 2015 when he's 34 and 35 years old.

Can't you wait to use it for the future? If so it might be prudent to wait.

[dirno2000]

Yea I was going to edit to add that. If those reports are true and you can use it at any time over the length of the CBA then maybe you keep him a year or two since you have to pay him any way.

[vinylstar]

Looking at length and amount of Haywood's contract I don't know how you don't amnesty him to get Chandler, but at that point are you relying on Ian as your backup center? Passable game 6 aside, that seems optimistic.

We are talking about basketball! This is pretty much awesome.

Edit: Bring Damp back for vet min to backup Chanderl!

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by dirno2000

Yea I was going to edit to add that. If those reports are true and you can use it at any time over the length of the CBA then maybe you keep him a year or two since you have to pay him any way.

If you amnesty him now you have to pay him almost the full money, lose him AND let him go to anothr contender.

I dont see this coming this year but maybe in two years.

[jthig32]

First of all, let's remember that 2015 for Haywood is a team option. That's important.

Secondly, I still feel like amnestying him is unlikely. Obviously this new CBA changes things a bit, but his contract is perfectly reasonable for a starting center, and I think there are teams that will take on his contract in a salary dump.

Could be wrong, but right now I'd bet on him being traded (assuming they sign Tyson).

And no, I don't think Ian will be slotted as the backup center. Someone else will be acquired.

[Fidel]

"The proposed Amnesty would have 75% of the salary coming both the tax and the cap.

It may also be a tool teams may be able to bank for the future (the 2005 Amnesty had to be used within two weeks). Would that enable teams to deal for players with awful contracts by the trade deadline and then cut them lose to gain the cap/tax savings?

The provision is said to only include players under contract before the current CBA but timing may allow for some wheeling and dealing with Amnesty in mind.

Additionally teams may be able to use a Stretch Exception to cut a player while paying out their salary over twice the length of the contract (plus a year). Certainly the Stretch Exception will impact who teams use the Amnesty on."



edit: i misread something. still interesting.

[dirno2000]

I said this in the other thread but it makes more sense here. My take on Haywood is that if you could chop off the last two year of his deal it's not a bad contract (i'm not even considering the option year because he's not getting that). So if we can amnesty him two years down the road then maybe we do keep him. It's really a luxury tax decision for Cuban.

If we have to decide now then I think hes gone. If a potential trade partner can't amnesty him for whatever reason I don't think you can move him without taking back a matching bad deal.

[jthig32]

Does anyone have any details on exactly how the stretch exception affects the cap and the luxury tax?

[dirno2000]

Looks like it would lower the cap and the tax hit:

"Stretch" exception: This exception would allow teams to waive a player and stretch his pay (and salary cap hit) over an extended period of time. The agreed-upon formula is as such: double the number of years left on the player's deal, plus one (so Player X who has two seasons remaining on his deal would be paid over five seasons). It's unclear how often this would be available to teams, but it's likely to be at least once per season.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...als/index.html

[jthig32]

At least once per season? Wow.

That makes me even more confident that they won't amnesty Haywood and that someone might trade for him.

[MavsFTR]

Apparently there is a two-year grace period for luxury tax teams.

@ZachLowe_SI: Remember: Two-year grace period before harsher luxury tax kicks in. Huge for Dallas and Lakers. Boston, too

[dirno2000]

Originally Posted by jthig32

At least once per season? Wow.

That makes me even more confident that they won't amnesty Haywood and that someone might trade for him.

I'm anxious to see how teams utilize this. Doesn't see like a great deal to me. Yes you more than cut the cap hit in half but you also stretch it out so that you've got, to use an NFL term, dead money long after the player is gone.

In Haywoods case if you wanted to get out of the last two guaranteed years of his deal you could take the cap hit down to less than $4M a year but you'd be stuck with that until 2018. I'm not sure that's good cap management. We'll see how it plays out in practice.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by dirno2000

I'm anxious to see how teams utilize this. Doesn't see like a great deal to me. Yes you more than cut the cap hit in half but you also stretch it out so that you've got, to use an NFL term, dead money long after the player is gone.

In Haywoods case if you wanted to get out of the last two guaranteed years of his deal you could take the cap hit down to less than $4M a year but you'd be stuck with that until 2018. I'm not sure that's good cap management. We'll see how it plays out in practice.

Well in the Mavs case I assume they'd still have their amnesty provision to use on him at that time. I can't see them using it on anyone else unless you can use it on someone you trade for.

I think the stretch provision is something you can always have in your back pocket and makes it far more likely that someone like Haywood can be dealt. He's the type of player than can be a lot more valuable for another team, and that team still has some recourse to make his final couple of seasons more palatable if he doesn't pan out.

[dalger]

Originally Posted by Popeye

The Mavs should re-sign Chandler but I hope they don't overpay. I don't think his free agent value is all that great. He's not young, not a star, and has had injury issues in the past. I think a deal at $10mm/year should get it done for the Mavs. Why would a team like the Nets pay more than that?

The Mavs have $64mm in salary committed already and signing Chandler probably puts them at $75mm, which is likely just above the luxury tax. Unless they amnesty Haywood, they'll probably say goodbye to JJB, Butler and Stevenson unless they get them for super cheap. Is JJB worth $3 mil in salary plus another $4.5 mil in luxury tax?

I'm trying to convince myself of the same when it comes to Chandler. He's had a terrific year and, if healthy, can impact a team to a point where he's a difference maker. With that in mind, he had two pretty bad years before joining the Mavs due to injuries and I'm sure many GMs still remember that infamous medical check that led to OKC rejecting a trade. Tyson's injury history could keep some teams from making him a huge offer, especially under the new CBA. How many teams are there anyway that could spend or would want to spend $10+ million dollars for a player like Tyson, given that there's actually less money available? I wouldn't even be surprised to see Chandler give us a discount in order to remain a Maverick instead of going to a crappy team for a million or two more per year.

Coming off a major knee injury and approaching 32, I wouldn't expect Caron to receive great offers either. A one-year, $5 million offer could very well do it, one would think.

[sefant77]

They wont amnesty Haywood. The guy has trade value, his contract isnt that bad (remember his last year is a Woodchip!).

I also say the perfect moment for amnesty would be after 13/14 if Dirk decides to retire. Dirks contract gone, Marions gone, Haywood amnesty. The Mavs could create huge capspace and with luck throw a max contract to a future franchise player.

[dalger]

Originally Posted by sefant77

I think it will depend how much Cuban is willing to spend LT for another year because next year are with Terry and Kidd 20m gone. Terry will stay for ~ BAE money, Kidd either vet minimum or retire. Anyway, it will reduce the payroll by 15-18m.

I think Cuban is fine with it spending something to repeat.

It's indeed important to note that we have almost $20 million coming off the books as early as June mostly due to Kidd's and Jet's expiring contracts. That and the two-year grace period could certainly create a mindset to spend big money one more time in order to get as much out of the talent we have as possible.

Dirk has three years left and the harsher luxury tax comes into play in two years. I'd be somewhat surprised to see Cuban save money NOW instead of two or three years from now. If I read the reports correctly, we could basically go for another title under the same conditions for two more years.

[jthig32]

Just saw a mini-thread on another board (non-basketball) where more than one person speculated that the Mavs would amnesty Marion.

There's no doubt that that final year of Marion's contract could hurt, but it's absolutely ludicrous to think that they'd amnesty him now.

[Popeye]

Originally Posted by dalger

I'm trying to convince myself of the same when it comes to Chandler. He's had a terrific year and, if healthy, can impact a team to a point where he's a difference maker. With that in mind, he had two pretty bad years before joining the Mavs due to injuries and I'm sure many GMs still remember that infamous medical check that led to OKC rejecting a trade. Tyson's injury history could keep some teams from making him a huge offer, especially under the new CBA. How many teams are there anyway that could spend or would want to spend $10+ million dollars for a player like Tyson, given that there's actually less money available? I wouldn't even be surprised to see Chandler give us a discount in order to remain a Maverick instead of going to a crappy team for a million or two more per year.

Nobody wanted to pay the 1 year/$12 million price tag for Chandler last year when Jordan was basically trying to pawn him off on anybody with the cap space to take him. Jordan even ate the Matt Carroll contract to get rid of him. Yeah, he had a pretty good year, but he's also older and his contract will run into his mid 30's now. And there's fewer teams with salary cap room. He's also, at best, the 3rd most attractive center in free agency. Again, I'm not criticizing him because he's exactly what the Mavs need in a center, but we overrate his value around the league because of that and because he was the last piece to the puzzle.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by dalger

It's indeed important to note that we have almost $20 million coming off the books as early as June mostly due to Kidd's and Jet's expiring contracts. That and the two-year grace period could certainly create a mindset to spend big money one more time in order to get as much out of the talent we have as possible.

Dirk has three years left and the harsher luxury tax comes into play in two years. I'd be somewhat surprised to see Cuban save money NOW instead of two or three years from now. If I read the reports correctly, we could basically go for another title under the same conditions for two more years.

Yeah. Cuban told he will do anything to repeat. And the Mavs have a great shot to win another 1-2 rings if they keep most of the key guys and keep the bench deep. I dont see him cheaping out after the greatest season ever. He is too much of a fan and a freak.

Invest this year again, even with some iffy LT this year. 2012 Kidd and Terry reduce the payroll significant and 2013 amnesty Haywood.

[Wang Zhi Zhi]

I think getting Butler back would be huge. As noted above, that's really the only real option for this team to get BETTER than what we had last year, and we'll to get better to keep up with OKC and Miami, who will get better with experience and time together. I don't think we can win it all with just keeping the same rotation.

For me:

1. Chandler - obvious
2. Butler - above
3. Stevenson - Rudy may get more minutes at 2 during the season, but we really need that tough physical wing D come playoff time for Kobe, Durant, Harden, Wade, Lebron, and I don't think Brewer can handle any of those guys physically.
4. JJ - time for Roddy to be the 2nd PG

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by Wang Zhi Zhi

I think getting Butler back would be huge. As noted above, that's really the only real option for this team to get BETTER than what we had last year...

Corey, Rudy, Boobie and Ian all disagree with you.