This Season's Roster Outlook

[GermanStandard]

Cap 2015/2016 is projected at 67,1 M $ 81 M $ Tax
This Season it was 63 M $ 77 M $ Tax

The huge raise in the Cap kicks in in 2016/2017 but we get a slight raise next season.

So after the Rondo accident and the recent actions this is how the Roster likely looks out:

Under Contract:

Parsons 15,3M $
Dirk 8,3M $
Harris 4M$

Player Option:

Ellis 9M$
Felton 4,5M$
Aminu 1,1M$

Team Option:

Powell 800K

Free Agents:

Tyson Chandler
Barea
Jefferson
Villanueva
Stoudemire
Smith
B. James
Rondo



Well we dont have to worry about signing Rondo to a new Deal...

Felton will definitely take his Player Option cause hes not getting a better deal anywhere else.

Powell i dont know about...Hes cheap they could activate the Option.

Ellis will clearly not take his Option cause he can get more than 9M. Right now i would not give him another contract. Guy choked the last months of the season and looks to be another headcase when some things arent going well.

We have to give Chandler a new Contract. There is simply no better C available in Free Agency that would sign with the Mavs.

I would also give Barea, Jefferson, Villanueva and James Vet contracts and would try to hold Stoudemire but his recent comments indicate that he likely leaves. Villanueva and James would be guys for the Vet Min.

Aminu is a great piece but might be to expensive after that season. He will not take his option.

Tyson gets 14,5M $ which is way too much. I would sign him to a 2 year deal 10M$ per.

Doubt he gets a better contract and he likes it here.


Roster and Contracts may look sth. like this

Parsons 15,3M $
Dirk 8,3M $
Harris 4M$
Felton 4,5M$
Tyson Chandler 10M$
Powell 800K $
Barea 1,5M $
Jefferson 1,5M$
Villanueva 1,5M$

_______________________

47,5 M $ / 67,1 M $

_______________________

Money left to spend

~20M $

_______________________

Now there are several Options.

Ellis will demand atleast 11-12 M a year thats what i expect.

Aminu will atleast get a 4-5M a year Contract.

________________________

Parsons 15,3M $
Dirk 8,3M $
Harris 4M$
Felton 4,5M$
Tyson Chandler 10M$
Powell 800K $
Barea 1,5M $
Jefferson 1,5M$
Villanueva 1,5M$
Ellis 12M$
Aminu 4M$

_________________________


63,5M $/ 67,1 M $

_________________________

Money left to spend

3,6 M $

_________________________

You can either try to resign Amare with that money or look for a Veteran PG.

If you dont resign Aminu or/and Ellis you can dish out a Max Contract or Close to it.


UFA 2015

Guards

Mo Williams
Jeremy Lin
Wesley Matthews
Manu Ginobili
Gerald Green
Lou Williams
Danny Green
Rodney Stuckey
Marco Belinelli
Gary Neal

Forwards

LaMarcus Aldridge
Paul Millsap
Brandon Bass
Amir Johnson
Carlos Boozer
Josh Smith
DeMare Carroll
Mike Dunleavy
Tayshaun Prince
Shawn Marion
Mirza Teletovic

Centers

Marc Gasol
DeAndre Jordan
Omer Asik
Robin Lopez
Brandon Wright


Of course there are several nice RFA and Player Options but they most likely never leave the Team if the Contract is fine so i left them out here.

So there are Options but honestly who wants to go to declining Team with an old Franchise Player?

My Question to you. What would you do?

Resign all our guys except Rondo and try again?

Or let Ellis (Aminu) move and get somebody else like Matthews, Green, Williams etc. + some new Role Players?

[MFFL]

>>>So there are Options but honestly who wants to go to declining Team with an old Franchise Player?

Reload as best as we can and make Dirk's last couple of years competitive

I think the increase of player salaries will benefit the Mavs in a couple of years if we can keep cool and let all the other teams blow their money on players who aren't worth their new contracts

[Dirk's Knee]

You resign Ellis (notice how his decline coincided with the Rondo trade?), TC, Aminu, Felton opts in, pick up team option on Powell, sign Jeremy Lin, sign best backup big we can find. Fill out depth with min salary vets.

Harris, Felton
Ellis, Lin
Parons, Aminu
Dirk, Powell
Chandler, ?

[Melonhead]

Amare isn't sticking around for this mess. Honestly don't want to think about the roster because it's going to be a slow death for the next season or so.

On monta: I don't know. I guess you sign him and have him as a trade piece. Kind of don't want him long term. Dirks knee said he declined when Rondo got here. But I think he will still be moody monta wherever he goes. He's done it in GS and Bucks. He's like that girl you're always trying to please and keep in a good mood because she's hot but doesn't offer much else. Eventually you have to cut ties

Don't know their situation but guys I like as guards: Jarrett Jack, Shaun Livingston (wanted him when he was with nets) and George Hill (doubt he'd leave)

[Dirk's Knee]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Amare isn't sticking around for this mess. Honestly don't want to think about the roster because it's going to be a slow death for the next season or so.

On monta: I don't know. I guess you sign him and have him as a trade piece. Kind of don't want him long term. Dirks knee said he declined when Rondo got here. But I think he will still be moody monta wherever he goes. He's done it in GS and Bucks. He's like that girl you're always trying to please and keep in a good mood because she's hot but doesn't offer much else. Eventually you have to cut ties

Don't know their situation but guys I like as guards: Jarrett Jack, Shaun Livingston (wanted him when he was with nets) and George Hill (doubt he'd leave)

Regarding Monta, he hasn't played good in a couple month. But we should remember that he was the #1 offensive option on this team and despite the poor team playoff performance so far we did win 50. I get it that 50 may be an outdated threshold for success in the west, but I think the best chance at being better next season is the keep as many starters as possible (in other words all but Rondo). We'll have plenty of time to tank/rebuild after Dirk retires.

[GermanStandard]

My Problem is that if you keep all guys except Rondo you have basically nothing to spend while losing the starting PG (well eventough he didnt play like one most of the time).

So if you go Option A you have around 3-5M to Spend depending on the new Contracts and you wont get much with that money.

Also keep in mind that Chandler, Dirk etc. get another year older so they likely will degress in productivity.

So adding just another solid Role Player to the recent cast wont do much...

They may Win 45-50 Games or reach the Playoffs as another 7th or 8th Seed but thats not really competing and giving Dirk a Chance.

[tsar]

I say blow it up. Go full rebuild mode - I doubt Dirk wants to hover around the 7-8 seed next year. Mark+Donnie must know, this roster, without some sort of a major rehaul isn't going anywhere in this Western conference (it's only going to be stronger next year).

**EDIT
Actually if you get rid of Ellis and resign Aminu and focus on building a team around Parsons abilities we could have something. We haven't seen Parsons as "The Man" and I think he deserves that chance.

CORE:
Parsons - ?
Chandler - ?
Aminu - Dirk off the bench - Charlie V
BLANK - Harris - JJ - Felton
BLANK - ?

That's going to be a hard roster to fill out. We would need a solid defensive shooting guard and a serviceable point guard. Who's available this offseason (realistic?)

[CanadianMavsFan]

Originally Posted by tsar

I say blow it up. Go full rebuild mode - I doubt Dirk wants to hover around the 7-8 seed next year. Mark+Donnie must know, this roster, without some sort of a major rehaul isn't going anywhere in this Western conference (it's only going to be stronger next year).

Agree with this. The dream is over. The front office gave it their best shot, gambled on some talent that just wasn't good enough, and are now looking at a grim reality. I feel bad for Dirk. He turned down some potentially big money for the promise of building a Spurs-like team but this squad never had close to the talent or the system to fulfill that promise. Still, he's done very well for himself and in truth he has regressed to the point where his contract is proportional to his real value at this point.

I don't have a problem with re-signing Chandler to a 2-3 year deal on 10-12M. The guy loves it here but the front office should be honest with him and make it known that this team will be unable to truly contend. Rondo is gone. Ellis can go. Aminu is fun to watch sometimes but at best he's a utility player on a good team (8th or 9th man).

Keep whoever is drafted and sign some shooters. I'd like to see them attempt to replicate what we saw before the Rondo trade only without the expectations of contending. Field a free flowing offensive team, let Dirk pad his all time stats and reach number six on the scoring list and watch him go into the sunset (assuming he rejects the player option on the third year of his deal).

[Dirk's Knee]

Originally Posted by GermanStandard

My Problem is that if you keep all guys except Rondo you have basically nothing to spend while losing the starting PG (well eventough he didnt play like one most of the time).

So if you go Option A you have around 3-5M to Spend depending on the new Contracts and you wont get much with that money.

Also keep in mind that Chandler, Dirk etc. get another year older so they likely will degress in productivity.

So adding just another solid Role Player to the recent cast wont do much...

They may Win 45-50 Games or reach the Playoffs as another 7th or 8th Seed but thats not really competing and giving Dirk a Chance.

The window is already closed on significant improvement building around Dirk. Another 50 win season and playoff berth next year should be seen as a successful year. The only way I would consider blowing it up is if somehow Lamarcus Aldridge was willing to sign. At that point, you let Ellis walk without question (but hopefully a sign and trade with something in return).

Starters:

Harris
Best SG available (ideally Lin)
Parsons
Aldridge
Chandler

Bench:
Felton
Min salary vet (Bellineli? Gary Neal?)
Aminu
Dirk
? (would RC play Sarge? Could Powell be a Wright starter kit?)

[dirkhorse]

Originally Posted by Dirk's Knee

You resign Ellis (notice how his decline coincided with the Rondo trade?), TC, Aminu, Felton opts in, pick up team option on Powell, sign Jeremy Lin, sign best backup big we can find. Fill out depth with min salary vets.

Harris, Felton
Ellis, Lin
Parons, Aminu
Dirk, Powell
Chandler, ?

Ok
that team will miss playoffs.

[Dirk's Knee]

Originally Posted by dirkhorse

Ok
that team will miss playoffs.

We've been barely over .500 since the Rondo trade. That's how good the team was starting the season. Yes, missing some depth but bench players are much easier to find than starters.

[spreedom]

I wouldn't be against a wholesale change, but I think it's unlikely that Ellis opts out this summer. The cap is ballooning over the next couple of years and he probably wants to wait another year before going for a new contract.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I wouldn't be against a wholesale change, but I think it's unlikely that Ellis opts out this summer. The cap is ballooning over the next couple of years and he probably wants to wait another year before going for a new contract.

Pretty much. All the news is that he still really likes Dallas. Even if he doesn't, he's in a perfect spot to come up big next year and then become an UFA with full bird rights when the cap jumps to almost 90mill

[spreedom]

You know, as much as I don't like Monta as our starting SG, I would love to live in a world where we built a defense-heavy starting lineup and brought Monta AND Dirk in off the bench.

[butchmcrae]

It will be really interesting to see which direction the front office decides to go on in this summer. The Celtics getting our pick puts us in a really tough situation. It's going to be tough to even make the top 8 with a healthy OKC and a Pelicans team that will likely be even better.

[sammy]

I fully expect Cuban to go after after many of the big names available, especially LMA.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I wouldn't be against a wholesale change, but I think it's unlikely that Ellis opts out this summer. The cap is ballooning over the next couple of years and he probably wants to wait another year before going for a new contract.

I prefer to blow it up but if Monta opts in that would be about the best thing that could happen to the Mavs.
The worse thing that can happen at this point is for the Mavs to pay a premium price on a long term deal with Ellis.
If Ellis opts in and Chandler would sign a 1 or 2 year deal I could live with not blowing it up.

All I can say to my fellow Mavs who want to keep beating this dying horse is don't get pissed when some of the value guys we sign or trade for next season aren't able to hang with the elite players in the league.

Frankly I'm tired of the Odoms, Mayos, Kamans, Rondos, Nelsons, Collisons and a few others that were supposed to be great pickups and didn't amount to crap. There's a reason those players are available and we seem to be the last to figure out why.

[tsar]

Originally Posted by butchmcrae

It will be really interesting to see which direction the front office decides to go on in this summer. The Celtics getting our pick puts us in a really tough situation. It's going to be tough to even make the top 8 with a healthy OKC and a Pelicans team that will likely be even better.

Don't forget a rising Jazz team as well - I don't they are there yet but will make the conference even harder....

[Skywalker]

Please stop mentioning Lin here.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by tsar

Don't forget a rising Jazz team as well - I don't they are there yet but will make the conference even harder....

I'd put the Kings as a possible PO contender as well.

[jamaljasonandjimmy]

maybe the mavs can get garnett and pierce

[twelli]

Now that Rondo is gone, I hope, somehow the Mavs can get their hands on Little Rondo, the up and coming Dennis, the Schredder, Schroeder. Schrempf, Nowitzki, Kaman, sooner or later the German players will have a stint with the Mavs. I would love to cheer for a German Mavs after Dirk's retirement

[DGM]

What I hate is that we could have traded B Wright to suns for I Thomas and kept Jae plus a 1 rounder.

[MFFL]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I think it's unlikely that Ellis opts out this summer. The cap is ballooning over the next couple of years and he probably wants to wait another year before going for a new contract.

I can't imagine him not opting out.

He's going to get somewhere around $8m next year on current contract. If he opts out he can get a max (from us) of about $15m on a 3 year deal with another opt out after his 2nd year. If he stays on his current contract he'd probably sign a deal starting at $22m or so.

It's $30m for the next two years either way but one has a $15m payment next season and the other has $8m.

Which would you choose?

[spreedom]

Originally Posted by MFFL

I can't imagine him not opting out.

He's going to get somewhere around $8m next year on current contract. If he opts out he can get a max (from us) of about $15m on a 3 year deal with another opt out after his 2nd year. If he stays on his current contract he'd probably sign a deal starting at $22m or so.

It's $30m for the next two years either way but one has a $15m payment next season and the other has $8m.

Which would you choose?

Based on his recent play, I would be absolutely stunned if the Mavs gave Ellis a three-year "max" contract (max meaning $15M or whatever... not a true max). He just hasn't been good, at all, for like three months.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by spreedom

Based on his recent play, I would be absolutely stunned if the Mavs gave Ellis a three-year "max" contract (max meaning $15M or whatever... not a true max). He just hasn't been good, at all, for like three months.

No kidding... He's probably worth $10-12m per year at this point, WITH the salary cap spike around the corner. I'd rather let him walk than overpay him, since retaining Ellis isn't going to get us anywhere and only limits what we can do this summer.

[mavsfan1000]

Time to rebuild. Starting with a new GM.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

Time to rebuild. Starting with a new GM.

Please tell me your plan. Should we trade away Parsons for a pick? In which case, what do we do to rebuild? Please enlighten us.

[butchmcrae]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Please tell me your plan. Should we trade away Parsons for a pick? In which case, what do we do to rebuild? Please enlighten us.

Re-sign nobody. Ask Dirk if he's down for finishing his career on a rebuilding team. If he would rather leave you trade him. Let Chandler run the show and see what he is about. That will likely get you a top 7 pick in the West.

[MFFL]

Originally Posted by Underdog

No kidding... He's probably worth $10-12m per year at this point, WITH the salary cap spike around the corner. I'd rather let him walk than overpay him, since retaining Ellis isn't going to get us anywhere and only limits what we can do this summer.

Regardless of the actual number he gets in free agency it will be for more than $8m and if the Mavs want him back it will be for $15m because he isn't signing unless he gets the same money as Parsons.

Either way the money works better for him to opt out of this deal and get a bigger contract this season and then opt out again after his second year on his new contract.

[ActionJackson]

Useless.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Last I had heard before the season started he was planning on coming over next season.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by twelli

Now that Rondo is gone, I hope, somehow the Mavs can get their hands on Little Rondo, the up and coming Dennis, the Schredder, Schroeder. Schrempf, Nowitzki, Kaman, sooner or later the German players will have a stint with the Mavs. I would love to cheer for a German Mavs after Dirk's retirement

Too bad they weren't in a position to draft the guy...never mind

[mac222b]

What will Koponen's salary look like?

[Thebo]

Originally Posted by mac222b

What will Koponen's salary look like?

I think it should be same as draft players? Would be interesting to see him but I doubt he gets starter minutes under RC. Unless of course RC will really like him. Would be nice to have new energy and life in this team.

[jay3189]

Resigning Tyson and Monta is a must. I would like Aminu and J.J back. Amare, Charlie, Richard can go. I really like Amare, but Dallas needs to get younger. Cut the 30 year age to about 4 or less next season. Dallas needs better bench rebounders. And get a legit shooting guard who can stretch the floor who is between 6'5 - 6'7 in height. The guards on Dallas are small. Rondo, and Felton are 6'1, Monta and Devin are 6'3, and J. J is like 5'10.

[jay3189]

Danny Green or Marco Belinelli would be great off the bench for Dallas. I would prefer Dallas getting Danny Green, for his strong defense. I doubt Dallas get Danny. I'm pretty sure teams want Danny.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Without a good defender at 4 of the 5 starting positions it's going to be hard building anything. The pg's available and our cap situation I don't see a great defensive pg who can be had. Monta is a negative defender. We are locked in with CP who is average to above average. Dirk is a negative defender at this point in his career. So if we retain TC and Monta we have 1 plus defender in the starting 5, again. So offensively we need a pg who can shoot and play off ball to play alongside Monta. Defensively we need a pg who can defend to play alongside Monta.

If Monta opts in at 8.7 I'm fine with that. Since worst case scenario it's an asset. If Monta opts out and wants anything near CP's money(like the rumors) then no thanks. It's easier to get a defensive shooting player at the 2 spot than the 1. TC can cover some of Dirk's bad D. TC cannot cover Dirk, Monta, and pg's like Harris, JJ, and Felton.

[jamaljasonandjimmy]

Can we get DeAndre Jordan?

[Vinsanity]

Originally Posted by jamaljasonandjimmy

Can we get DeAndre Jordan?

He would never come here and it would require a max. We can probably resign Tyson for half the price.