Shaq may be going to Suns

[Thespiralgoeson]

Once again, for the record, I'm not saying that Phoenix is necessarily better after this trade. I just don't think it's nearly is stupid as everyone else does, and there certainly is some logic to this move.

It will be interesting to see how much their perimeter defense will suffer without Marion. I imagine a backcourt of Nash/Bell/Diaw probably isn't going to stop a whole lot of penetration. And the frontline of Diaw/Amare/Shaq isn't necessarily a defensive roadblock, but I don't think it's a turnstile either. At the very least, they're not going to get thoroughly dominated on the offensive glass as they have in the past, and they can definitely block a lot of shots, and most importantly they're not depending on Amare to guard the opposing team's center.

And again, between Nash, Diaw, and Shaq, they've got probably the best passing team in the league. Shaq will still take up space down low and draw the occasional double team, and that of course opens things up for the other guys. I think that could very well offset the fact that with Marion they also lost one of their 3pt threats.

It's quite intriguing because this is a Phoenix team we haven't seen before. But better or worse, Phoenix is definitely different. They'll probably match up better with the likes of San Antonio, LA, and maybe New Orleans, and probably worse with Dallas and Denver.

[phxsuns]

And fellas, word is that Shaq's debut will be against you guys next thursday. Should be a good one. Shaq guarding Damp/Diop. Amare and Dirk guarding each other. Can't wait.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by phxsuns

And fellas, word is that Shaq's debut will be against you guys next thursday. Should be a good one. Shaq guarding Damp/Diop. Amare and Dirk guarding each other. Can't wait.

This will be interesting to see how this game is coached. I seriously doubt we'll see much of Dirk and Amare guarding each other. I imagine we'll probably see Bass play a lot of minutes and guarding Amare for most of the game. Diaw and Dirk will probably guard each other. I wonder though, where does that leave Howard? Howard will probably see a lot of minutes at 2. (That is if Avery's smart, which I'm confident he isn't. We'll probably see a lot of Dirk guarding Shaq)

[FINtastic]

At center, sure. Rodman may have been the greatest rebounder ever, but take Rodman in his prime and put him at center next to a guy smaller than he is at PF in a series against the Spurs, and yes, that team would get outrebounded too. And please, don't get me started on Ben Wallace (yes, I would take Shaq NOW over Ben Wallace in his prime.)

I seem to recall Rodman absolutely getting in Shaq's head in the '96 Eastern Conference Finals. Rodman was perfectly able to do his thing. That same Rodman would have dominated this current Shaq on the boards. Dominated.

Well neither of them ever played out of position either. Rodman still had seven footers playing next to him in Lambeer and Longley. And while Wallace was an undersized center, he still had Rasheed next to him. Prince/Rasheed/Wallace was a pretty formidable rebounding frontline and I imagine won the battle of the boards more often than not. Wallace is also something of an exception to the rule because he was unusually strong for his size.

If you think Rodman was doing his damage because he was playing alongside Luc frikkin' Longley, I don't know what to say. Oh, and that's very deceptive to attribute Ben Wallace's play to Rasheed. Rasheed didn't get there until midway through 03-04. Ben Wallace was playing center before that, and all he managed to do was put up a 13.2, 13.0, and 15.4 in the previous seasons respectively.

[FINtastic]

Originally Posted by DLord

I didn't write it, but I'll take that bet (provided Miami doesn't sign him to an extension first and he doesn't get a major injury).




I'll take your bet too (provided Miami doesn't sign him to an extension first and he doesn't get a major injury).




And I'll take yours as well.



If I missed anyone, my apologies. But step right up, I'll take your money too!!



GENTLEMAN, I'll wager all of you very intelligent observers that, provided Marion doesn't get signed to an extension first and doesn't get a major injury, he'll opt out to be a free agent in July 2008. And he'll get a rich payday for doing so.

In fact, in MY opinion (as insane as kg_vet thinks I must be!), I think it's pretty much a certainty.

And now I'll tell you all the reasons why I am so certain.

First of all, star players always get paid. Borderline talents may languish on the market, but stars always get their money, and under almost any criteria you can name, Marion plays at a star level. If he's on the market, we can rest assured he'll get paid.

Saying "no one has that much cap room" is both naive and irrelevant. Teams are angling for cap room as we speak, and by the time it's all said and done and we get to July, a team or teams will have found a way to have cap room to be able to get one of the premium talents available. Marion qualifies, and he has the star's assurance that if Miami doesn't get him a payday by either a new contract with them or by sign-and-trade, someone else will.

Second, Marion is at the prime opt out age. He'll be 30 this year, and every year he waits to hit free agency is one year closer to that looming date when he encounters that "I've fallen and I can't get up" moment in his career and it's too late to get a payday. If you're a 30ish player and have a choice between locking in a long-term deal this summer, or waiting another year to do it with the chance something may go wrong in the interim, you do it now.

Third, players don't look at contracts like we do. We focus on the annual pay. "He's getting $17M. Who will pay more?" we ask. But players look at it much differently. Instead of the annual averages, they look at the Total Guaranteed Money they'll get, since they'll get it all no matter what. To Marion, if he knows he can swap a guarantee of $17M for a guarantee of $50-60M, or maybe even more, it's a RAISE, and there will be absolutely no hesitation to opt out - even if in the 2008-09 season he might be getting $13-14M in a new 4-6 year deal instead of the $17M he would have gotten in the remaining year of his prior deal. The annual payout is just minor details - it's the total that matters.

Further, while we think players must be stupid to entertain the idea of forfeiting $17M this year for (for example) only $13M this year and $65M over 5 years, when you consider how many contracts these days get bought out early, and how many players retire early with pay (like Bradley), then aren't they maybe more insightful than we are in focusing on the Total Guarantee over the annual average?

Fourth, NBA history shows us guys at this point opt out, even when we think they are paid more than they can possibly get by opting out. In the summer of 2005 Shaq opted out of a final year at $30M. That's dumb, no one could pay that much in free agency, we said. And we were right. He had to settle for 5 yrs at only $20M per year, a "sacrifice" we were told. But how correct does that decision look NOW for him, as he is getting more at that "reduced' rate for his current play than he could ever still hope to garner on the open market now. Right now it looks like he's been worth 30 (the original contract), 20, 15 (this season), and 2 more questionable years ahead. If he was a free agent now, would he command another $35M for those remaining 2 years? Of course not.

Last summer Vince Carter was in a similar boat. One more season at max money, or opt out into a free agent market where "no one can pay him." He opted out. And he got paid royally.

GENTLEMAN, stars get paid. Marion wants his big payday. He will opt out (unless Miami gives him a major extension or unless he gets hurt in the interim.) And if I have to be labeled insane to say that, so be it.

Put your money on the table. I'll take it. My baby needs new shoes.

DL

I can take your point Mr. Lord. Maybe Marion would have opted out. I probably should have put all of what I was thinking though. Even if he does opt out, he's not going to another team for comparable money. Most teams don't have 13-14 mil a year to spend, and if they do, they aren't looking to spend it on a SF like Marion, especially one who everyone seems to think is great because he plays with Steve Nash. Teams don't spend their money on a small forward at Marion's age who isn't considered a top 15 player and does not put up sexy scoring numbers. They might spend on a point guard or center, but not a small forward. Teams might be angling for cap room, but it's not for the Shawn Marion's of the world. Most of the teams with the max-money cap room are looking to rebuild, and for all he brings to the table, you don't really rebuild around Shawn Marion.

The only case I can think of in recent memory where a player near Marions level got signed away by another team for near-max money was Rashard Lewis. So unless Phoenix was going to completely lowball him, they would still have a pretty good shot at retaining his services. But maybe Phoenix was going to lowball him (they do have a reputation of doing that) so that's why they made the move.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

This will be interesting to see how this game is coached. I seriously doubt we'll see much of Dirk and Amare guarding each other. I imagine we'll probably see Bass play a lot of minutes and guarding Amare for most of the game. Diaw and Dirk will probably guard each other. I wonder though, where does that leave Howard? Howard will probably see a lot of minutes at 2. (That is if Avery's smart, which I'm confident he isn't. We'll probably see a lot of Dirk guarding Shaq)

if thats true they should fire avery on the spot. id actually put dirk on bell and josh on diaw if i was coaching but thats just me.

[Dtownsfinest]

I'd put money on seeing Dirk guarding Shaq before he guards Amare. I'm sure Shaq's gonna play limited minutes if he plays at all though but its going to be interesting to see who guards each other now with the Marion departure.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by FINtastic

I seem to recall Rodman absolutely getting in Shaq's head in the '96 Eastern Conference Finals. Rodman was perfectly able to do his thing. That same Rodman would have dominated this current Shaq on the boards. Dominated.

You're right, Rodman in his prime would probably dominate Shaq now. I don't know that he'd dominate Duncan though. All I'm saying is, if Rodman were in today's NBA, it probably wouldn't be a good idea to start him at center. At least not for an entire season.

If you think Rodman was doing his damage because he was playing alongside Luc frikkin' Longley, I don't know what to say.

Not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying Rodman never had to play out of position for entire seasons at a time. He and the bulls probably benefitted from that, wouldn't you agree? Otherwise, why not just start Rodman at center his whole career? Rodman was a phenominal power forward, and as such played his entire career at power forward. Marion is a 3 and should play at 3, and Amare is a 4. The only thing I'm saying, I just don't think it's a good idea to play people out of position.

Oh, and that's very deceptive to attribute Ben Wallace's play to Rasheed. Rasheed didn't get there until midway through 03-04. Ben Wallace was playing center before that, and all he managed to do was put up a 13.2, 13.0, and 15.4 in the previous seasons respectively.

Again, all you're doing is throwing out per game averages that really don't mean anything. I never said Ben was a great rebounder because he played next to Rasheed. I'm saying Detroit had a lot of success because they played with two big men. I brought up Rasheed, because they didn't get out of the East until they got Rasheed. Indeed, I think it was that very system of playing with such a monstrous frontcourt that made them so tough. If they didn't have Rasheed and played Big Ben at center with another undersized player at the 4, I doubt they would've won a championship and had near the same level of success they've had.

[bernardos70]

Originally Posted by Dtownsfinest

I'd put money on seeing Dirk guarding Shaq before he guards Amare. I'm sure Shaq's gonna play limited minutes if he plays at all though but its going to be interesting to see who guards each other now with the Marion departure.

Lineup:

Harris
Josh
Dirk
Bass
Dampier

Boom, hurt Phoenix with size. If they're gonna half ass it by just having one big in Shaq.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by bernardos70

Lineup:

Harris
Josh
Dirk
Bass
Dampier

Boom, hurt Phoenix with size. If they're gonna half ass it by just having one big in Shaq.

Probably the best lineup to use against Phoenix. Not a great shooting lineup, but adequate I suppose.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by bernardos70

Lineup:

Harris
Josh
Dirk
Bass
Dampier

Boom, hurt Phoenix with size. If they're gonna half ass it by just having one big in Shaq.

i concurr... which is why i said it about 3 pages ago

[Dtownsfinest]

I'd agree. That's the best lineup to use but who are Dirk and Bass guarding? I think we can all agree Bass will more than likely take Amare but who does Dirk guard? I guess it matters who the Suns have out there. He should have no problems guarding Hill. Raja Bell and Diaw could be a bit more difficult.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by Dtownsfinest

I'd agree. That's the best lineup to use but who are Dirk and Bass guarding? I think we can all agree Bass will more than likely take Amare but who does Dirk guard? I guess it matters who the Suns have out there. He should have no problems guarding Hill. Raja Bell and Diaw could be a bit more difficult.

Dirk vs Diaw is favorable matchup I think. Moreso than Dirk vs Marion anyway.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by Dtownsfinest

I'd agree. That's the best lineup to use but who are Dirk and Bass guarding? I think we can all agree Bass will more than likely take Amare but who does Dirk guard? I guess it matters who the Suns have out there. He should have no problems guarding Hill. Raja Bell and Diaw could be a bit more difficult.

why would raja give him problems? all raja does is spot up. i think he can handle any of hill, diaw and bell. also putting him on raja keeps him out of the pick and roll.

[mavsfan1000]

The lineup I would use against Phoenix is smaller. I don't like having Bass and Dampier in the game at the same time. I would start Devean George instead of Eddie Jones and put him on Stoudemire. Dirk would guard Diaw or Grant Hill. So Dampier on Shaq, George on Stoudemire, Dirk on Hill/Diaw, Howard on Bell, and Harris on Nash.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

The lineup I would use against Phoenix is smaller. I don't like having Bass and Dampier in the game at the same time.

Why not?

I would start Devean George instead of Eddie Jones and put him on Stoudemire.

Seen it before. Usually doesn't work out well for us.

[mavsfan1000]

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

Why not?
Seen it before. Usually doesn't work out well for us.

It hurts the spacing on offense. Also when George is guarding Stoudemire, we are usually doing small ball (no shotblocker). Now that Phoenix has Shaq, we can have George guard Stoudemire while having Dirk and Dampier on the court.

[Windmill360]

sooooooo what's going to happen with that Miami/Atlanta redo game since shaq is no longer on the heat?

[Dr.Zoidberg]

Suns Set?
We Play Contrarian On Phx' 'Spending Spree'
By David Lord -- DB.com

I'm hearing animated discussions by fans about how the Suns are aggressively spending money right and left, adding Shaq and considering adding Artest, and so on, and I just don't buy any of it. As an NBA Matchup of the Week looms with the Mavs’ Valentine’s Day visit on Thursday to Phoenix, it’s a good time to detail what I see evolving in the Arizona desert. Let’s start with some general truths and history and work from there to get to the bottom of what the Phoenix Suns are all about – and to prove my thesis that while "anything is possible," I don't believe the Artest-to-Phoenix concept has any substance behind it. It looks to me like nothing more than “sexy’’ speculation gone wild at this point.


THE HISTORY: THE SUNS, THE TAX, AND THIS SEASON'S MOVES

1. We all know that the Suns have historically fled from the tax, even though their profits are tops in the NBA.

2. What some may not realize is that nothing has changed on that front. They are only paying tax reluctantly this season, because they were so far over the tax line heading into this season that it was impossible to get their payroll below the tax line. They had commitments for about $10M too much, with no expectation they could erase it.

3. In the summer they came to the realization they would have to pay tax, and tried to spin it into a positive by telling their fans, "It's a new day. Now we are willing to pay tax to win a title."

4. But soon thereafter they found a way to get Kurt Thomas's contract off the payroll instantly. That mythical "willingness to pay tax for a title" was exposed as whoosh their best defensive big man was gone in a flash - and they even tossed in two No. 1s to grease the deal.

5. All evidence still points in the same direction: they are only willing to pay tax if they have no choice. And that's important to remember because using their Trade Exception is a choice, and it adds both payroll and tax.

6. Many fail to recognize that the Shaq deal LOWERS their payroll (and potential tax) both this season and next. Keep your eye on the ball: while it has the appearance of being a talent move, it might be the money that drove this deal just as much.

7. League rules REQUIRE them to add one more player. That's why they are still looking.

THE CURRENT SITUATION: WHAT MIGHT THEY TRY TO DO?

When the Suns say they are looking for a "defender" I suspect that is code-speak that admits that in any deal, the cheapest and most readily available type players possible are likely to be defensive types with limited scoring aptitude.

Right now, after the KThomas and Shaq moves, they are getting within sniffing distance of "tax-free" and the $2-3M welfare check that the league gives to teams who avoid tax. (I can see Sarver-the-money-chasing-pig smelling it, sniffing sniffing "I smell free money!" and desperately rooting around looking for a way to get to it.) They're now only about $1.6M over, and the cheapest player to fill that final roster slot would cost them an added ~$150K, making them a $1.75M reduction away from that pile of luscious green moolah.

In that context, simply using the TE to add a player in trade takes them in the wrong direction financially. While you can't rule that out for certain, their behavior pattern tells us the most likely way that TE will be used (from most likely to least) is (a) not at all, (b) for a very inexpensive player, (c) for a decent player who costs them payroll on an expiring contract, (d) for a player on a continuing contract who is fairly expensive. Artest is in category C which I find not likely at all, for all the reasons stated above.

So what might they do instead? Could they be headed that direction instead? Maybe so.

One way I can see for them to get under the tax line would be to swap Diaw's $9M contract for one or two players that add up to less, using the 25% cushion in trades. Another team could take him and only send them $7.12M in return. If they trade Diaw for 2 players totaling between $7.12 and $7.4M, or one player totaling between $7.12 and $7.25M (leaving them a $150K cushion to pick up a rookie free agent for that final slot), they'll avoid tax.

So what about Artest? Unfortunately for them, Artest's $7.4M salary doesn't quite fit in that window, though he's close. But from the Kings' side, it is problematic in other ways besides the fact it doesn't quite solve Phx's tax problem. Unless the Kings are offered something pretty desirable (and I don't put Diaw at $9M per year in that group, but others may), then they are more likely to keep their group together and see if they can't somehow sneak into a playoff slot. In addition, if they want to give away Artest to someone with a TE, the Warriors also have a sizable one, meaning the Kings would have multiple options to drive up the bidding if they wanted to go that direction.

How about other teams then? In general, a hangup in the Diaw-for-cheaper angle is that while Phx would be reducing taxable payroll that way, the other team is adding it, and that can be more of a deal-killer than we fans realize. That wouldn't be a major problem with Sac who still has a bit or cushion under this year's tax line, but it does with other alternatives. For example, I'd could envision the idea of Diaw's offense going to the offensively challenged Cavs, where Phx got back the much cheaper (and "defensive oriented") Eric Snow in some sort of 2-for-2, but with Cleveland already in taxpaying territory, that would take a big gulp for the Cavs to add even more tax. So, I can't see it happening.

We also have to note that while Diaw at $9M would probably be considered "overpaid" to most teams, he would come closest to being worth that contract in Phoenix. His jack-of-all-trades game allows them to use him in a variety of ways. The one problem they have with him, however, is that his best production for the Suns came when Stoudemire was hurt and he was used as a finesse post player befuddling the giants guarding him. With Shaq being added, there will be even less opportunity for him to play in the post.

From a feasibility-of-use standpoint elsewhere, Diaw might fit best with teams wanting to use that open-post style that Phoenix has run, such as Toronto, Golden State, Washington, Memphis, and so on. Of those teams, it's noteworthy that Golden State also has a big TE, and an ongoing need for big men/post players who can score and pass, making for all kinds of possibilities if Diaw was dangled and the Warriors saw him as being a fit for them. Diaw for Pietrus and Barnes, perhaps?

Or how about one other team, one where he doesn't seem to fit but still might work as a trade possibility. Doesn't this sound like a NY Knicks kinda opportunity? It would take some mix-and-match contracts, and maybe it ends up some kind of 2-for-2 with Piatkowski added on Phx's end, but I can see the Knicks trying to cooperate with their main offer being one of the following: Malik Rose, Jerome James, J Jeffries. What use would the Knicks have for Diaw? I have no earthly idea, but since when did that stop them from adding an overpriced player in the past????

If the Suns don't use Diaw in trade to shed some payroll, then perhaps they could find a team to take Piatkowski's contract off their hands. Replacing his 1.2M cap charge with the cheapest costing 0.15M doesn't fully get them there, but it gets them close. The Suns could find a team with enough cap room (or a TE big enough and some tax-free room), then send him (and $400K to pay the rest of his salary) along with a draft pick from the Suns for their help. For the other team, they'd get a pick for free, essentially. Memphis or Charlotte have enough cap room to do something like that for some team, and it's probably available to the highest bidder.

Is there another angle that yields enough space to matter? Raja Bell would probably bring them offers, but his contract isn't big enough where the potential 25% cushion he could offer could alone save them all the payroll to get below the tax line. And you have to think they need him even more now than before, with Marion out of the picture.

We can all play around with the numbers, but I have to think those kinds of ideas, rather than adding Artest in a huge tax-increasing move using a TE, are what the Suns are really trying to do. And when all is said and done, we may see nothing splashier than some D-leaguer or cheap vet added to fill that last slot, and nothing more.

We’ll have a look at how Shaq’s Suns play come Thursday. We'll have the final answer to the Puzzle in the Desert as it regards what Phoenix ownership really thinks and really wants by Feb. 21.

145pm feb 10 2008

Link

[Underdog]

Shaq winded after first Suns practice


PHOENIX (AP) - Shaquille O'Neal practiced with the Phoenix Suns for the first time Monday, showing no sign of the hip injury that has sidelined him since Jan. 21.

"It was different. It was very intense," he said after the one-hour workout. "I learned a lot. Now I can see why they can go at the pace they play at. When you just do short bursts like this, then you can save it all for the game."

Just when he will play in a game remained undecided.

"I haven't done anything in a month, but I'm in pretty good shape," O'Neal said. "It will probably take me a few more days to get in tune. The good thing about these guys here is they told me when I'm comfortable, when I'm one-thousand percent, then I can join them."

Phoenix has two games before the All-Star break — at Golden State on Wednesday night and at home against Dallas on Thursday. The first game after the break is at home against Shaq's old team, the Los Angeles Lakers, his former coach Phil Jackson and his old teammate Kobe Bryant.

"I think it's going to take a little bit," coach Mike D'Antoni said. "It's going to be an adjustment for our guys and for him. It's hard to think and play basketball at the same time. Right now, he's got to think where he's going to go and all that. But it's going to be good chemistry and it's going to change things up, hopefully for the better."

D'Antoni said the Suns will "not rush him back for any reason." The coach said he will meet with O'Neal and trainer Aaron Nelson after Tuesday's practice to map out plans.

Phoenix is 2-1 since the trade last Wednesday that brought O'Neal from the Miami Heat for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks. The Suns have the conference's best record at 36-15 but only 5 1/2 games separate the top nine teams in the West.

O'Neal injured his hip diving for a loose ball against Utah on Dec. 22. He returned Jan. 16 but was sidelined again five days later. An MRI showed inflammation in the left hip, shutting him down from all basketball activity.

In going ahead with the trade, the Suns were confident their staff would be able to get O'Neal in playing condition.

"The hip's feeling pretty good, better than it's felt in a while," O'Neal said. "I'm used to just getting injections and going back out there. They told me they have their style, and they want me to stick with it."

O'Neal said he needs to get back in basketball shape and has to be comfortable with playmaker Steve Nash in a system far different from the one used by Pat Riley in Miami.

"I'm not going to rush anything because this is already a fine-tuned machine, and any kink could throw it off," O'Neal said. "I don't want to be the negative kink. I want to step in like I've been with this team the last three years. I have to make sure that everything's right."

He's been impressed by much of what he's seen, particularly the ability of Amare Stoudemire, named Western Conference player of the week on Monday.

"I didn't know he was that good," O'Neal said. "I really didn't."

O'Neal's arrival will allow Stoudemire to move to his more natural power forward position.

"I think it makes my job a little easier," Stoudemire said. "If you look at me standing beside him I look more like a point guard than a center."

The entire Phoenix team seemed energized by O'Neal's presence.

"Most practices you don't want to be out there," Grant Hill said, "but today everybody wanted to be out there and look forward to making it work. That's going to be the challenge. That's going to be the fun part."

O'Neal does not expect to be the star.

"I'm a historian of the game, so I understand that on this team I'm probably a big role player, and I have no problem with that," O'Neal said. "I did my thing in my prime, and it's Amare's prime right now. I think it's my job to get him to the next level. Toward the end of my career, I have no problem coming here and just fitting in and just helping these guys get to the next level."

He compares his job to the role of an aging Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on the "Showtime" Lakers teams of Magic Johnson and James Worthy.

"Kareem was fortunate enough to have those style of players around him toward the end of his career, and I sort of feel like him now," O'Neal said. "I'm no idiot. I'm not going to come in here trying to take over and take 30 shots. I'm going to fit in very nicely — rebound, outlet to Steve, get some easy buckets, play some defense. That's all we need to do."