Mavs off-season and draft 2023 thread - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

EricaLubarsky · 03-22-2023, 10:47 PM

Because why not

2.4% chance of keeping our first rounder and no second rounder so?there?s a chance

Amarelooms · 03-25-2023, 07:04 AM

If we lose out won?t it be top 10 pick?

Melonhead · 03-25-2023, 08:20 AM

Teams 9-14 in the lottery have the same amount of losses. Even if Mavs managed to get 9th, could still land 11 and convey the pick.

The good news is they are tanking organically. That?s how bad the team is.

tap2390 · 03-25-2023, 11:04 AM

As I stated in another post? if we have the 10th worst record the only way we don?t keep our pick is if one of the teams with the 11th - 14th worst record leapfrogs us for a top 4 pick.

If we?re tied with another team, for example for the 10th / 11th worst records, and neither team moves up the lottery, a coin flip determines who gets the earlier pick.

Just tank baby.

We don?t have a 2.6% chance of keeping our pick?. Depending on our record, it is much closer to 80%.

EricaLubarsky · 03-25-2023, 11:21 AM

Assuming no ties:

14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4) - current position
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
10th - 79.78% chance of keeping our pick (13.88% chance of a top 4)
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)

=====================================
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.10% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick

Of course, if we somehow end up keeping our pick (1-10), we still owe the Knicks 2024.

The worst possible scenario in my opinion is that we lose this pick to the Knicks, have no 1st/2nd round picks at all, lose talent this offseason, and still owe 2029 to the Nets unprotected so even if we tank, we can't keep that pick.

Best solution: tank hard to keep the pick, draft a big or defensive wing, SnT Kyrie or Luka for some role players and maybe a star-ish player, and get Luka some counseling to take care of his personal issues.

Dallas41 · 03-25-2023, 11:05 PM

I agree 💯 with this

Should the mavs tank?

Tanking does not solve any of the team?s problems. Yes, they could add a top-ten pick to their roster, but he would likely need multiple years to develop. The pressure is on the Mavericks to win now. They cannot wait or Luka Doncic will be wearing a different uniform.

Dallas needs to make the 24-year-old?s partnership with Kyrie Irving work immediately. The superstar duo needs to work out the kinks on offense and play with max effort on the defensive end. That is the first key to breaking out of their slump. The Mavericks should also be in the market for a leader that can quarterback the defense next season.

SMC0007 · 03-26-2023, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I agree 💯 with this

Should the mavs tank?

Tanking does not solve any of the team?s problems. Yes, they could add a top-ten pick to their roster, but he would likely need multiple years to develop. The pressure is on the Mavericks to win now. They cannot wait or Luka Doncic will be wearing a different uniform.

Dallas needs to make the 24-year-old?s partnership with Kyrie Irving work immediately. The superstar duo needs to work out the kinks on offense and play with max effort on the defensive end. That is the first key to breaking out of their slump. The Mavericks should also be in the market for a leader that can quarterback the defense next season.

1 play in game does nothing for this team too. Wasted season. Losing the pick by trying to prolong the misery woukd be cherry on top.

Melonhead · 03-26-2023, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I agree 💯 with this

Should the mavs tank?

Tanking does not solve any of the team?s problems. Yes, they could add a top-ten pick to their roster, but he would likely need multiple years to develop. The pressure is on the Mavericks to win now. They cannot wait or Luka Doncic will be wearing a different uniform.

Dallas needs to make the 24-year-old?s partnership with Kyrie Irving work immediately. The superstar duo needs to work out the kinks on offense and play with max effort on the defensive end. That is the first key to breaking out of their slump. The Mavericks should also be in the market for a leader that can quarterback the defense next season.

Looking at the draft it seems loaded and we can?t live in this fantasy that Luka Kyrie is going to maximize together defensively. A play in game or missing the playoffs is not going to be the difference in whether Kyrie stays.

There won?t be a magic turnaround if they somehow got to a series either. This team is what they are. People said the same thing about Brooklyn. If they just get to a series they can upset a team. And they got swept instead.

SMC0007 · 03-26-2023, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Looking at the draft it seems loaded and we can?t live in this fantasy that Luka Kyrie is going to maximize together defensively. A play in game or missing the playoffs is not going to be the difference in whether Kyrie stays.

There won?t be a magic turnaround if they somehow got to a series either. This team is what they are. People said the same thing about Brooklyn. If they just get to a series they can upset a team. And they got swept instead.

100%. This is what we are. It's going to be a long offseason soon with lots of movement. Replacing Kyrie and Wood, finding a big. Praying Luka doesn't eat even worse when hea depressed. Waiting around all summer for Our FO to make an attempt to unfuck themselves.

sig · 04-03-2023, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I agree 💯 with this

Should the mavs tank?

Tanking does not solve any of the team?s problems. Yes, they could add a top-ten pick to their roster, but he would likely need multiple years to develop. The pressure is on the Mavericks to win now. They cannot wait or Luka Doncic will be wearing a different uniform.

It's not like the Mavs don't have a lot of dead weight on the roster to let a top 10 pick develop. Who knows who might fall. They could probably bring in a couple of players from the draft if they had the picks.

How many of the following would you want back. I'd like to keep wood but seems not in the cards.

Powell - FA

Wood- FA - Any value in S&T if not returning?

Bullock, Bertans, THJ - Maybe Bertans dead weight but not other 2 All 3 should be shopped for similar caliber players to improve defense in frontcourt

McGee - Hopefully, add in to trade to help match salary

Frank N. - like him but he didn't improve

Pinson - don't get why he sucks up roster psot

Morris - Bye Bye

tap2390 · 04-03-2023, 11:32 AM

Keep Kyrie, Holiday, Pinson, and Powell.

Let Morris and Frank walk.

Try to S&T Wood. Try to trade THJ, Bertans, and McGee.

BigDog63 · 04-04-2023, 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I agree 💯 with this

Should the mavs tank?

They've lost 7 of last 8 down the stretch. Isn't that tanking?

rimrocker · 04-04-2023, 02:40 AM

Best way to retain Kyrie is to trade our pick at the deadline if we are at #10.

Hardaway/#10 for Turner

Who says no?

Fire Kidd
Hire Stotts
Resign Wood

Luka/Kyrie/Green/Wood/Turner
Hardy takes the JET/NVE role
Wright/Holiday/Bullock/Maxi/McGee

Melonhead · 04-04-2023, 09:46 AM

I forgot Morris was even on the team

saclare · 04-04-2023, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rimrocker

Best way to retain Kyrie is to trade our pick at the deadline if we are at #10.

Hardaway/#10 for Turner

Who says no?

Fire Kidd
Hire Stotts
Resign Wood

Luka/Kyrie/Green/Wood/Turner
Hardy takes the JET/NVE role
Wright/Holiday/Bullock/Maxi/McGee

I've long wanted Turner for this team and fit with Luka. All-in if we can get him, especially for that price. I'd love to add another talented young buck because they tend to be solid to plus contributors and come cheap, but there's always risk that they could flop and almost always take time to acclimate to pro ball, which wouldn't be ideal when paying max to Luka/Kyrie. I can honestly see the arguments both ways, though.

Can the above work within the cap restrictions?

Amarelooms · 03-26-2023, 02:46 PM

If lose all games left. We should get top 8 pick right? Need lose out!!!

Dallas41 · 03-26-2023, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amarelooms

If lose all games left. We should get top 8 pick right? Need lose out!!!

They lucked into Dirk and Luka

I doubt they draft anyone even at 8 through 10 who will be a difference maker

FO has proven to be inept at roster building

Melonhead · 03-26-2023, 05:30 PM

Mavs are 10th after that loss. At ?best? they finish 9th. 8th is probably too tough to get with 7 games left. 9th I?d feel better about staying top 10.

Now what do they do with it? Probably nothing that would result in a positive but at least it doesn?t go to NY. I have no faith in Cuban.

tap2390 · 03-26-2023, 05:51 PM

Nico hit on his first pick, and my preference would be he use the pick unless we?re getting Mark Williams or Bam Adebayo in return. We need young hungry players on rookie contracts.

tap2390 · 03-26-2023, 06:58 PM

Wishlist:

1) Jarace Walker
2) Dereck Lively
3) Cason Wallace

Zeus · 03-30-2023, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

They lucked into Dirk and Luka

I doubt they draft anyone even at 8 through 10 who will be a difference maker

FO has proven to be inept at roster building

Incredibly true.. Not sure why an inept FO and owner expects fans to stick with a complete rebuild if they trade Luka as Erica and others are asking for. I would follow Luka to another team and celebrate when he wins a ring elsewhere. F Cuban et al

EricaLubarsky · 03-26-2023, 09:59 PM

Luka suspended a game

Should help

Or maybe not

SMC0007 · 03-26-2023, 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Luka suspended a game

Should help

Or maybe not

Good. He needs a lot more of this to learn how immature he is.

DevinHarriswillstart · 03-26-2023, 11:00 PM

Mavs will manage to convey the pick at 11 because our FO doesn't understand how this all works.

saclare · 03-27-2023, 10:58 AM

Mavs have a tough schedule to end it. It would really suck to come down to the game against San Antonio as our must lose to solidify a top-10 pick.

Big time matchups against the Pacers and Bulls will be the most important. HAVE to think the Jazz can win another 2-3 with Spurs, Nets, and Lakers x 2 left, but it looks like they are going the injury report route for tanking with some sus injuries/Outs.

Bulls and Lakers the true threats to drop more games than Mavs and drop down in standings. Will be a super intriguing end to this season either way lol

EricaLubarsky · 03-27-2023, 01:40 PM

===========TANK STANDINGS=========
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
10th - 79.78% chance of keeping our pick (13.88% chance of a top 4)
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
8th - 99.6% chance of keeping our pick (28.9% chance of a top 4)

================TIE SCENARIOS=====================
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.10% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick

================STANDINGS================
7th - Washington/Indiana. -3.0 games (unlikely)
8th - Washington/Indiana. -3.0 games (unlikely)
9th - Jazz -0.5games
10th - MAVS
11th - Bulls +0.5games
12th - Thunder/Raptors/Hawks +1.0 games
13th - Thunder/Raptors/Hawks +1.0 games
14th - Thunder/Raptors/Hawks +1.0 games

We are within 0.5 games of moving up to 9th in draft odds. Sadly, we are also only one game back for 14th. (11th-14th would almost certainly lose us the pick). 7th/8th is almost statistically impossible with seven (7) games left.

If Mavs went 0-7 and Pacers/Wizards went 4-3 it could happen.

Pacers are 2-5 in last 7 and play the Bucks, Thunder, Cavs, and NYK twice
Wizards are 2-5 in last 7 too and play the Celtics, Knicks, Bucks and Heat.

Melonhead · 03-28-2023, 11:14 PM

With okc loss Mavs drop to 12 in draft position.

mac222b · 03-29-2023, 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

With okc loss Mavs drop to 12 in draft position.

OKC sat SGA. God, what I wouldn?t do to have Presti as our GM.

saclare · 03-29-2023, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

With okc loss Mavs drop to 12 in draft position.

Wrong, OKC owns the tie breaker. And they likely sat SGA as the front end of a B2B. OKC would be foolish not to start getting some playoff experience for SGA, who I think is knocking at the door of being a top player in the league. They already have Chet coming next year with plenty of draft capital. Don't see them punting this season, though I could easily be wrong.

Edit: btw, wish our FO could see the value in grabbing really productive college players in the 2nd. Isaiah Joe has been killing it and his shooting alone would have found him a role here. I'm an Arkansas homer, but that's a couple of times now the Mavs should have taken the obvious pick, with Bobby Portis being the other time.

Melonhead · 03-29-2023, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saclare

Wrong, OKC owns the tie breaker. And they likely sat SGA as the front end of a B2B.

they could just as easily land at 12 now that they are tied with okc, nba does coin flips or a drawing for tiebreakers, not head to head records

saclare · 03-29-2023, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

they could just as easily land at 12 now that they are tied with okc, nba does coin flips or a drawing for tiebreakers, not head to head records

Pretty sure that was only for top 10? I could be wrong...

Edit: yep, I stand corrected. Looks like they do it through all 14 lottery picks. Call me grumpy, but really fucking stupid they apply one way of tie breaking for playoffs and another for this...no consistency, though I guess their thought was it might detract tanking, which you'd have to reallllly convince me it does anything to that effect.

EricaLubarsky · 04-02-2023, 03:40 PM

https://tankathon.com/

This might be my only Mavs joy these days

Melonhead · 04-02-2023, 04:49 PM

Bulls win today.

If Mavs lose to bulls very good chance to get 10 spot in the draft.

DevinHarriswillstart · 04-02-2023, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Bulls win today.

If Mavs lose to bulls very good chance to get 10 spot in the draft.

Tonight is a must lose against the Hawks. Powell is starting again, so I think they get it.

EricaLubarsky · 04-02-2023, 08:26 PM

===========TANK STANDINGS=========
15th/16th are still technically possible, but unlikely
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
10th - 79.78% chance of keeping our pick (13.88% chance of a top 4)
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
8th - 99.6% chance of keeping our pick (28.9% chance of a top 4)
7th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (31.9% chance of a top 4)
6th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (35.2% chance of a top 4)

================TIE SCENARIOS=====================
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.10% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick

================STANDINGS================
6th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
7th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
8th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
9th - Jazz -0.5games
10th - MAVS
11th - Thunder/Bulls +1.5games
12th - Thunder/Bulls +1.5games
13th - Wolves +2.0 games
14th - =Raptors/Hawks +2.5 games

BUMP

Amarelooms · 04-03-2023, 06:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

===========TANK STANDINGS=========
15th/16th are still technically possible, but unlikely
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
10th - 79.78% chance of keeping our pick (13.88% chance of a top 4)
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
8th - 99.6% chance of keeping our pick (28.9% chance of a top 4)
7th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (31.9% chance of a top 4)
6th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (35.2% chance of a top 4)

================TIE SCENARIOS=====================
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.10% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick

================STANDINGS================
6th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
7th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
8th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
9th - Jazz -0.5games
10th - MAVS
11th - Thunder/Bulls +1.5games
12th - Thunder/Bulls +1.5games
13th - Wolves +2.0 games
14th - =Raptors/Hawks +2.5 games

BUMP

Must get 9th over the jazz. Nba should help us get that wibbley wobbly guy if get 8. Luka - kyrie and him. That would be an nba dream. Not him going Detroit or spurs. KEEP LOSING!!!

Amarelooms · 04-03-2023, 06:39 AM

Crap. Just saw Utah schedule. Tough. They might lose out!!!!!

BPo001 · 04-03-2023, 11:25 AM

Per Shams: Mavs are considering sitting Luka and Kyrie for the remaining games.

Tank. Hope you get your draft pick. I think Shams said they can package 3 future first rounders to try and improve the roster?

DevinHarriswillstart · 04-03-2023, 11:44 AM

Yes...let's keep Dwight Powell.

SMC0007 · 04-03-2023, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Yes...let's keep Dwight Powell.

Right. F DP. Zero interest in him, Bullock, Maxi, and THJ.