Free Agent Watch: CP3 & D12

[Underdog]

I figured these two guys could use their own thread, seeing as how the Official Offseason Thread has officially become a mess to sort through... Now we have a single location to collect all of our hopes and dreams before reality sets them on fire.

I'm going to kick it off with the first few entries from Tim MacMahon's series on Chris Paul:

Plan CP3: Mark Cuban is Mavs' biggest advantage

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There’s one reason why Chris Paul might consider leaving millions of dollars on the table to say farewell to a 56-win team with a lot of young talent. His name is Donald Sterling.

Sterling spending money for two good seasons, made possible by the deal to acquire Paul from the Hornets, doesn’t erase three decades of being a penny-pinching NBA disgrace.

Put it this way: The Clippers have made half as many playoff appearances during Sterling’s 32-year ownership tenure as the Mavs have in 13 full seasons under Mark Cuban. Sterling’s squads have won a grand total of two playoff series, 11 fewer than Cuban’s teams.

Oh, and Sterling also happens to have been accused of racism, sexism, etc. in multiple lawsuits. In basketball and his other business, he’s simply an awful boss. Cuban, on the other hand, is widely beloved by those who have played for the Mavs for his willingness to do whatever is in his power to give his team the best chance to win. (He also happens to be friendly with Paul, as evidenced by Cuban and Dirk Nowitzki palling around with Paul at Tiger Woods' charity poker tournament in Las Vegas over the weekend.)

That’s why Cuban vs. Sterling is a point the Mavs must hammer in their talks with Paul.

Clippers president Andy Roeser and general manager Gary Sacks, who was promoted to his position last summer after Neil Olshey made a lateral move to Portland, deserve credit for putting together one of the league’s deepest benches. However, they’ve also been part of the problem franchise for two decades.

The mountains of Sterling’s dirt might be enough to plant seeds of doubt in Paul’s mind about staying in L.A. The Mavs brass would still have to sell him on their ability to build and sustain a legitimate contender with him as a centerpiece.

Cuban and president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson can point to their dozen-year playoff run with Nowitzki as proof of their credibility. Their challenge will be forming a plan for the future that could make CP3 believe that he’d win a championship in Dallas.

EDGE: Mavs by a mile.

Plan CP3: Clippers can't find better coach than Rick Carlisle

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Is Donald Sterling seriously considering giving Vinny Del Negro a new contract?

If that’s the case, Mark Cuban ought to offer to pay half of Del Negro’s salary. It’d be worth it to potentially push Chris Paul to leave Los Angeles instead of continuing to play for a clearly overmatched coach.

(UPDATE: Sources say Del Negro will not return as head coach of the Clippers.)

For the sake of discussion, let’s eliminate Del Negro from the equation. Paul will surely have the right to hand-pick his head coach if he returns to the Clippers, right? That’s just common sense for any franchise trying to keep a perennial All-NBA player.

Still, who could Paul possibly pick that’s better than Rick Carlisle?

The only possible answer would be convincing Phil Jackson to get off his couch and stick it to Jim Buss by coaching the Staples Center’s other basketball team. All indications, however, are that Jackson is only interested in a front-office position at this point, not the day-to-day grind of coaching again.

The Mavs need to maximize Carlisle as an asset in their recruiting pitch to Paul. They need to make a case that Carlisle is a perfect coach for CP3, an elite point guard in his prime with a hard-driving personality.

It’s not just about the credibility Carlisle has from the Mavs’ championship run. His preferred offensive style – a flow system that depends on the point guard to dictate the pace and make good decisions – is a phenomenal fit for Paul and his Jason Kidd-like basketball brain. And Carlisle’s ability to come up with smart, creative play calls when appropriate would appeal to Paul, who praised the Mavs coach via Twitter for a beautifully designed play that freed up O.J. Mayo for a clutch 3 during one of Dallas’ national TV games this season.

Carlisle prides himself on being brutally honest and relentlessly pushing his players. Paul has a similar reputation as a leader, arguably to a fault.

There’s no question Paul’s skills, savvy and take-no-stuff leadership style would make him an ideal point guard for Carlisle. The Mavs must convince Paul that relationship would be mutually beneficial.

EDGE: Another major advantage for the Mavs.

Plan CP3: Dirk Nowitzki or a decade-younger Blake Griffin?

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The power forward’s production has dipped significantly after his award-winning 2010-11 season.

That statement applies to both Dirk Nowitzki and Blake Griffin.

Nowitzki:

2010-11 – 23.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg
2011-12 – 21.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg
2012-13 – 17.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg

Griffin:

2010-11 – 22.5 ppg, 12.1 rpg
2011-12 – 20.7 ppg, 10.9 rpg
2012-13 – 18.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg

Dirk’s declining numbers are easily explained. He’s about to turn 35, dealt with knee issues the last two seasons and had serious point guard problems this year. With good health and a great point guard, Nowitzki returning to All-Star form certainly doesn’t seem to be a stretch.

What’s up with the 24-year-old Griffin’s regression since his Rookie of the Year campaign? You’d think such an elite athlete would be better after being paired with a premier point guard, but the evidence so far doesn’t support that theory.

“Lob City” has produced a lot of highlights, but the Chris Paul/Griffin pick-and-roll hasn’t been quite as lethal as anticipated. There have also been L.A. media rumblings about friction forming between the two Clippers cornerstones, with Paul supposedly growing weary of Griffin’s immaturity.

The CP3/Dirk pick-and-pop wouldn’t be nearly as flashy, but it’d be an efficient piece of art. Paul loved playing with a midrange-shooting machine of a power forward in New Orleans, dubbing David West as “The 18-foot Assassin.” There has never been a sweeter-shooting power forward than Nowitzki, whose calm competitiveness would also complement Paul’s fiery personality. (And there'd be no clash of egos with Dirk, who wants nothing more than to suddenly become the Mavs' second best player.)

Nowitzki has established himself as an elite closer and has consistently stepped up his game in the postseason. Griffin can make neither of those claims.

For all of Griffin’s athleticism, if Paul had to pick one of the power forwards for a playoff run, there’s little doubt it’d be Dirk at this point.

But CP3 has to be thinking about the long term this summer, and when comparing co-stars, that almost certainly tips the scales to the dude that’s more than a decade younger than his fellow power forward.

The finances could be a factor here, too. Dirk has declared that he'll take a massive pay cut when he re-signs with Dallas next summer, meaning the Mavs are guaranteed to have the cap space to pursue another star, while Griffin's max contract extension is about to kick in. But we'll wait until Thursday's installment to weigh the impact of the dollars difference.

EDGE: Clippers

Plan CP3: Can Mavs sell a potential supporting cast?

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Here’s where the Mavs have to make a heck of a sales pitch.

It wouldn’t be difficult for the Mavs to create enough cap space to give Chris Paul a max deal while keeping Shawn Marion and Vince Carter. That might give the Mavs a chance to be competitive next season, but the opportunity to play with a couple of savvy veterans with expiring contracts isn’t going to convince Paul to leave Los Angeles.

To have any hope, the Mavs must make Paul believe in their ability to build a legitimate contender around him next summer. And that’s where the dollars difference between Dirk Nowitzki and Blake Griffin might matter.

Nowitzki is on record as saying he’ll take a “significant pay cut” when he re-signs with Dallas next year, which guarantees that the Mavs can be major players again in the 2014 free agency market. Griffin’s five-year max deal kicks in next season, starting with a $13.7 million salary that increases by a little more than $1 million each year.

Worry about the semantics of what “significant” means if you wish, but Nowitzki has made it clear that his salary won’t get in the way of the Mavs making major upgrades after his current contract expires. The Clippers won’t have nearly as much flexibility with two max players plus center DeAndre Jordan due to make $21.4 million over the next two seasons.

It’s not enough to get Paul to envision the personnel possibilities in Dallas. The Mavs brass has to get CP3 excited about them. It’s a virtual lock that Dallas will be a preferred destination if Paul is running the point and the Mavs have ample cap space.

Hey, did you know CP3 and LeBron James (who can opt out of his contract next summer) are great buddies? Too far-fetched? OK, how about DeMarcus Cousins coming to Dallas as a restricted free agent?

The Clippers have a couple of complementary talents in addition to Griffin already locked up. You can argue that Jordan is overpaid, but he’s a young big man with freakish athleticism. Jamal Crawford, who has three years remaining on his midlevel deal, is a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate.

The Clippers also have a couple of assets that could be extremely attractive in the trade market this season: restricted free agent-to-be point guard Eric Bledsoe, who is stuck as Paul’s backup but good enough to start for a lot of teams; and the $8 million expiring contract of Caron Butler.

The Clippers’ supporting cast looks better on paper. The Mavs leave a lot more room for the imagination.

EDGE: Clippers, unless Mark Cuban manages to convince CP3 otherwise.

Plan CP3: How much does he value L.A. legacy?

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Both of these franchises used to be NBA laughingstocks.

The Mavs have since earned a reputation as one of the league’s best franchises. They were one of only three franchises in NBA history to reel off 11 consecutive 50-win seasons, making a pair of Finals appearances and winning one title during that span. That type of success demands respect.

The Clippers, meanwhile, have a grand total of one 50-win season in franchise history.

Granted, that was last season, when Chris Paul led the Clippers to a 56-win campaign. That came on the heels of a .606 winning percentage in the lockout-compressed 2011-12 season, when the Clippers won a playoff series for just the second time in franchise history.

The Clippers’ tradition is terrible, but CP3 has a ton of sweat equity in the franchise’s glory days. How much does he value the legacy of being the man who keyed the turnaround of Los Angeles’ other basketball team?

If Paul joins the Mavs, he’s joining a franchise that has recently been to the top of the mountain and plans to return. Dirk Nowitzki would willingly pass the baton as franchise centerpiece, but Paul would be attempting to live up to standards set in Dallas during Dirk’s Hall of Fame career.

With the Clippers, CP3 sets the standards. He’s the guy who saved that franchise from being a long-running basketball joke.

EDGE: Mavs, although Paul could have a major emotional investment in trying to finish the job in L.A.