This site simulates the remainder the season a million times. (Not just for bball, but for the other sports as well.) It's worth keeping an eye on. Currently it has the Spurs with an 83% chance of taking the division. (Note that its "dumb" simulation, which makes every game a 50/50 proposition, has the Mavs as a 58% favorite.)
It also has the Grizz as a decent favorite to take the 5 seed. Interestingly enough, it gives the Jazz only a 2% chance of being fed to SAS/DAL, and the Hornets only 1.5%.
Curious stuff.
www.coolstandings.com/basketball