only 11 of 30 teams average more points than they give up... - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

wmbwinn · 03-01-2007, 04:29 PM

Team Scoring Differential
Team Pts/Game
1 DallasMavericks 8.7
2 SanAntonioSpurs 8.0
3 PhoenixSuns 7.5
4 HoustonRockets 4.9
5 ChicagoBulls 4.5
6 DetroitPistons 4.1
7 UtahJazz 3.2
8 ClevelandCavaliers 2.3
9 LALakers 1.6
10 DenverNuggets 1.0
11 TorontoRaptors 1.0

Of the above, the Suns, Nuggets, Lakers, Jazz, and the Mavs also are ranked in the top ten teams in the NBA for scoring (points per game).

Of the original list, only the Spurs, Rockets, Mavs, Pistons, Cavs, and the Bulls are ranked in the top ten in the NBA in defense (fewest allowed points per game).

How many teams made all 3 lists (points differential positive for the season, points scored on offense, and points allowed on defense)????

One, the Mavs. It is no coincidence that the Mavs are #1 in win/loss this year and are also #1 in the points differential per game. The Mavs are winning by an average of 8.7 points per game.

Earlier in the season, the Phoenix Suns were #1 in the points gained versus allowed (Margin of Victory to use Hollinger’s system). Now, both the Spurs and Mavs have passed them up.

The Mavs are the only team in the top ten list for both offense and defense. Phoenix scores 10.5 more points per game. The Spurs allow 1.1 points less per game than the Mavs. The Suns are ranked # 25 of 30 teams in the NBA for defense. The Spurs are ranked #15 for points scored (out of the same 30 teams).

Of the Mavs, Spurs, and Suns, the Mavs are the only team to take more shots on offense than they allow the opposing team to take. The Mavs are +198 for the season per Doug’s Tendex raw data (you have to do the calculation). The Spurs are -68 for the season. The Suns are -182 for the season. The Spurs have a slightly higher FG% for the season on offense and allow a slightly lower FG% to the opposing team on defense, BUT the Mavs assume a shots taken advantage per game that the Spurs don’t have (and the difference in offensive FG% between the Spurs and Mavs is only .007 and the defensive FG% is only .004). The Suns have the highest offensive FG% in the NBA but suck on the defensive FG%. The Suns have the best FG% differential because they shoot so well.

The only team in the NBA to allow fewer total season shots to its opponents than the Mavs this year to this point is the Detroit Pistons.

I looked at Dallas head to head with the Suns, Spurs, Rockets, and Pistons only. Dallas is 7 wins, 3 losses with that elite group.
Averaging those ten games, Dallas took 77.9 shots per game and hit them at a .454 rate.
In those same games, Dallas allowed 72.6 shots per game and allowed them to be successful at a .466 rate. If you do the math, you find that the Mavs made an average of 35.37 shots per game and allowed 33.83 shots per game to be made against them.

Dallas is 2-0 against the Suns.
Dallas is 2-1 against the Spurs.
Dallas is 3-1 against the Rockets.
Dallas is 0-1 against the Pistons and the Pistons are the only team in this list that took more shots themselves than they allowed the Mavs to take. And, the Pistons are the only team in the NBA to allow fewer shots against them than the Mavs allow on defense for the season.

The loss to the Spurs was determined by a 21 free throws taken advantage for the Spurs.
The loss to the Rockets was a whipping, 107-76. We allowed the Rockets to shoot .536. Compare that to our last two games, .333 and .388 (against the Rockets).
The loss to the Pistons was convincing- Detroit enjoyed a .056 shooting advantage and took 6 more shots than us…

For the season, the Mavs allow the opposition to shoot .446 but the above teams shot .466
For the season, the Mavs shoot .465 but shot .454 against those good teams. So, when Dallas plays one of these teams, we are winning mostly because of a shots taken advantage which we gain by rebounding, stealing, low turnovers, hustle, etc. It is about Avery’s discipline.

Phoenix made .531 of its shots versus Dallas and allowed Dallas to hit .480 of its shots and Dallas won both games…
The FG% Diff in favor of the Suns was .051
The FG% advantage for the year that the Suns enjoy is .031 and that is the best ranking in the NBA. So, the Suns nearly double their advantage against the Mavs and lose anyway because the Mavs had an eleven shots taken advantage and did well from the FT line.

The Spurs made .472 of its shots against us and allowed us to hit .462 of our shots and we have won 2 of 3 anyway and lost one game primarily because the Spurs had a 21 FT’s taken advantage in that one game. We take more shots than they do (31 shots taken advantage over 3 games, take into account the 21 FT’s advantage in one game which is the same as 10.5 shots which would correct the shots taken advantage down to 20.5 over 3 games). The Spurs enjoy a FG% diff advantage for the season of .030 which is high and is ranked #2 only below the Suns. The Spurs only enjoyed a .010 advantage against the Mavs and the Mavs won by taking about 7 shots per game more than the Spurs.

The Rockets made .428 of its shots against us and allowed us to shoot .443 against them and allowed the Mavs an advantage of 18 shots taken over the four games. And, that includes the blowout loss the Rockets handed us earlier in the season, 107-76.

Detroit only played us once but beat us as already explained above. They had a shots taken advantage and a FG% advantage but still only beat us by about 10 points, not a blow out.

The shots taken advantage is a huge stat as to predicting outcome IMO.

wmbwinn · 03-01-2007, 04:31 PM

the above stats were taken from Yahoo boxscores and Doug's Tendex data. A lot of calculation was then performed by myself. I'm not aware of any errors but I'm not an accountant either and I didn't repeat my math to double check everything.

left texas · 03-01-2007, 04:40 PM

Wow, I thought I had time on my hands.

Nice job, If I get a minute I will check your math (NOT)!! Alot goes into getting all those wins.

MFFL · 03-01-2007, 05:54 PM

Great stat job!

And1 · 03-01-2007, 09:33 PM

excellent post. I will say that the data against the roxs is to be taken with a grain of salt. One can't accurately compare the two teams unless this is done mavs-apples to roxs-apples. Yao only played in the first game. I realize that this was the reality of which the data was collected and that is fine, but that's where the salt-shaker must be used.

The loss to the Rockets was a whipping, 107-76. We allowed the Rockets to shoot .536. Compare that to our last two games, .333 and .388 (against the Rockets).

Yao did not play the last 3 games.

How do you think the roxs-mavs reg. season series would go without Dirk for 3 games against a completely healthy roxs roster led by tmac and yao?

*puts flame suit on*

iella · 03-01-2007, 10:13 PM

Quote:

only 11 of 30 teams average more points than they give up...

So this basically means on average, only 11 of 30 teams win their games? That's about right.

And re:

Quote:

Originally Posted by And1

How do you think the roxs-mavs reg. season series would go without Dirk for 3 games against a completely healthy roxs roster led by tmac and yao?

Let's worry about this one when "a completely healthy roxs roster" is a possibility. Since it doesn't seem to be, this is a pointless statement. I'm not trying to provoke an argument, but instead of living in this fantasy, you might try finding superstars that are a little less fragile.

And1 · 03-01-2007, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iella

So this basically means on average, only 11 of 30 teams win their games? That's about right.

And re:

Let's worry about this one when "a completely healthy roxs roster" is a possibility. Since it doesn't seem to be, this is a pointless statement. I'm not trying to provoke an argument, but instead of living in this fantasy, you might try finding superstars that are a little less fragile.

thats on them, not me. Remember, I am the fan, not the GM, or the owner. All I can do is hope for the best. I am not trying to flame away, but Yao's injury was a freak thing, where 2 guys and 600 pounds crashed on his leg, that would have ended a fragile-players career. Yao does not have chronic injury issues. Tmacs chronic back seems to be in check after the patterson waco-witch doctor visits.

mqywaaah · 03-01-2007, 10:58 PM

Great stat. wmbwinn for Prez!!!

nowhereman · 03-02-2007, 01:40 AM

no one here is concerned with houston or what happened in game 2 of the season. i say we talk about what wmbwinn said instead, as he put a lot of effort into his work.

This is excellent testimony to support what avery does. shot differential does indeed seem to be a pretty strong indicator of our teams' success, and the fact that the mavs are dominating this category speaks volumes to the intensity and force of will we bring every night. it speaks well to our depth and athleticism.

the loss to detroit was indeed a blowout. the mavs made it closer late, but there just wasn't any intensity or passion. the pistons were just a step faster. the loss was much more a function of dallas' play rather than what detroit did.

wmbwinn · 03-02-2007, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by And1

excellent post. I will say that the data against the roxs is to be taken with a grain of salt. One can't accurately compare the two teams unless this is done mavs-apples to roxs-apples. Yao only played in the first game. I realize that this was the reality of which the data was collected and that is fine, but that's where the salt-shaker must be used.

The loss to the Rockets was a whipping, 107-76. We allowed the Rockets to shoot .536. Compare that to our last two games, .333 and .388 (against the Rockets).

Yao did not play the last 3 games.

How do you think the roxs-mavs reg. season series would go without Dirk for 3 games against a completely healthy roxs roster led by tmac and yao?

*puts flame suit on*

I did not re-quote myself in this original post, but I have said repeatedly that a healthy Rockets team scares me. The only apparent weakness in Houston is an apparent difficulty staying healthy.

The Rockets have a great defensive team. When they are healthy, they are frankly scary. No one in the NBA can stop a healthy Yao. Dallas has a great set of centers and they can't do anything against a healthy Yao. They can't even stop him by hitting him hard with fouls. Dallas has to focus on stopping the rest of the team. And, no one can stop a healthy TMac. So, you get the idea. The Rockets when healthy are a scary team. The fact that they are doing so well when not healthy should send shivers through the league.

In the past, Yao had one weakness: He would get worn out and fatigue and not play a solid second half. Last year, Yao rocked everyone in the first half and then disappeared in the second half. Last year, Van Gundy would rest Yao for heavy parts of the second quarter to give him the second quarter and half time to rest. Yao would play part of the third quarter and then rest again. Then Yao would burst out in the fourth quarter.

This year, Yao was playing all four quarters and showing no sign of fatigue.

The only strategy I can think of for Dallas to stop a healthy Yao is to front him with Diop or Dirk and have Dampier behind him. Then, obviously someone else is open.

I have said in the past that the Rockets worry me more than any other team in the NBA. I would rather play Miami, the Spurs, or the Suns in a seven game series than face a healthy Rockets team with an "in shape" Yao who won't fatigue...

And1 · 03-02-2007, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

I did not re-quote myself in this original post, but I have said repeatedly that a healthy Rockets team scares me. The only apparent weakness in Houston is an apparent difficulty staying healthy.

The Rockets have a great defensive team. When they are healthy, they are frankly scary. No one in
I have said in the past that the Rockets worry me more than any other team in the NBA. I would rather play Miami, the Spurs, or the Suns in a seven game series than face a healthy Rockets team with an "in shape" Yao who won't fatigue...

I understand what you are saying about health and I really did not mean to hijack your thread. Thanks for taking the time to respond so respectfully. It is mavs fans such as yourself that could make a roxs fan into a mavs fan. As I have said before, I do not hate the mavs, but I am not a fan of them per say...namely b/c of the recent postseason rivalry. Prior to that, my only beef with them was that nash, finley and dirk owned the steve franchise-Roxs. So, again I am not trying to turn my presence on this board to just be a sounding board on the Roxs. So I will try and mainly lurk and post occasionally in a not so roxs-only fashion. Again, thanks for your cordialness and sorry for hijacking.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nowhereman

no one here is concerned with houston or what happened in game 2 of the season. i say we talk about what wmbwinn said instead, as he put a lot of effort into his work.

As good as the mavs are playing, I do not think the mavs need to be overly concerned with a healthy Yao and tmac. Major props to Avery and his soldiers.