Free Agency in 2014

[moogle]

Next summer, the Mavs will have at least 8 players count towards their salary cap: Dirk, Monta, Calderon, Wright, Dalembert, Ellington, Larkin, and Mekel. Assuming Dirk re-signs for about $11 million, the Mavs should have between $17M to $20M to spend in free agency. At most, the Mavs will be able to make only one big signing in free agency.

So what's the outlook for free agency next summer?

Not Available:

• LeBron, Wade, and Bosh - These guys are not opting out 2 years early. And even if they did, they're not going to Dallas of all places (see: Summer of 2010).
• Kobe - Unlikely he'll leave L.A. And even if he did, it would be for a contender.
• Paul George - He's a restricted free agent, and Indiana will match any offer up to the max. He's not going anywhere.

Extremely Unrealistic

• Carmelo Anthony - Leaving New York City (his hometown) and moving to Dallas, Texas? I can't imagine it.
• Luol Deng - The Bulls are already working on a contract extension this summer.

Unrealistic Candidates - These are all restricted free agents. Mavs will have to seriously overpay these guys just to scare the original teams from matching (See: Tyreke Evans).

• DeMarcus Cousins
• Greg Monroe
• Larry Sanders
• John Wall

Realistic Candidates:

• Danny Granger
• Rudy Gay
• Andrew Bogut
• Emeka Okafor
• Marcin Gortat

Who will the Mavs end up with next summer? It would be nice if they can get 2 good players in free agency -- even if it's just Rudy Gay & Marcin Gortat. But realistically, the Mavs have enough cap room for only one major acquisition.

[Underdog]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mavs deal for one of these guys between now and the trade deadline.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mavs deal for one of these guys between now and the trade deadline.

Agreed, team up against the tax may be willing to deal for pennies on the dollar.

[Five-ofan]

I'll bet you anything you want to bet that wade and Lebron opt out if for no other reason to get max money now that they have bird rights.

That being said I doubt seriously the mavs are getting any of those guys

[grndmstr_c]

I have no idea if Wade/Bosh with use their ETOs. They'd take a pay cut on the open market. LeBron...I'll be surprised if he doesn't use his. Of course, Miami, LAL and Cleveland would all seem to have an edge over Dallas in signing him.

Dallas will probably be looking closely at the availability of the RFAs by trade, and if they get a shot at Cousins I think they'll take it. If they make it through the year with what they've got, a 2014 summer haul of, say, Granger (if he's healthy) + Gortat or Okafor would seem to fit their needs pretty well.

[yahyes]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mavs deal for one of these guys between now and the trade deadline.

Cousins or Larry?

[Five-ofan]

I think wade and Lebron are a package deal.

[moogle]

Originally Posted by yahyes

Cousins or Larry?

Balki Bartokomous.

[He15man]

Wouldn't mind Cousins here if he could get his head screwed on right

[marc9211]

Originally Posted by yahyes

Cousins or Larry?

Rudy Gay!! There's no way he like Toronto.

[Five-ofan]

I still prefer cousins out of all those guys(obviously excluding the pipe dream of lebron)

Cousins is an absolute monster of a talent and I'd like to think that our coaching would be better than the kings to get that talent out of him

[sike]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

I still prefer cousins out of all those guys(obviously excluding the pipe dream of lebron)

Cousins is an absolute monster of a talent and I'd like to think that our coaching would be better than the kings to get that talent out of him

Agreed. But haven't the Kings been pretty open about wanting to make Boogie their corner stone?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by sike

Agreed. But haven't the Kings been pretty open about wanting to make Boogie their corner stone?

Yep... And Boogie has been pretty open about not being interested.

[jamaljasonandjimmy]

Originally Posted by moogle

[*]Kobe - Unlikely he'll leave L.A. And even if he did, it would be for a contender.

like the mavs are not contenders

[MavsFTR]

Cousins was 46% from the floor last year. Isn't that really poor for a center?

[marc9211]

Originally Posted by MavsFTR

Cousins was 46% from the floor last year. Isn't that really poor for a center?

It is but it's tough to judge cousins by numbers for the kings. They don't space the floor well and give no room for cousins to operate. Based on talent and potential with the right coach and team around him he could be an absolute monster.

[moogle]

Originally Posted by MavsFTR

Cousins was 46% from the floor last year. Isn't that really poor for a center?

Cousins is only 22 years old though. I think most teams in the league are thinking he has plenty of room to grow, both as a player and as a person.

[moogle]

I think I know what Cuban is planning to do next summer. The Mavs have enough cap room to sign only one star off free agency, but that won't stop them from acquiring two. Most likely, they'll sign one big free agent (like Rudy Gay). Then they'll use the remaining cap room to trade for another star. A trade would allow the Mavs to acquire a player worth 50% more than their remaining cap room.

Unfortunately, the Mavs don't have the assets to acquire a legitimate star in a trade. Without assets, the only "stars" they'll acquire are of the overpaid variety. Acquiring overpaid stars via salary dump... that's The Bank of Cuban circa 2003. The only overpaid "star" available in a pure salary dump will be David Lee. That's really the only realistic way Dallas can add two "stars" next summer.

Dirk Nowitzki. Monta Ellis. Jose Calderon. David Lee. Rudy Gay. That's where this 2-year plan is headed. With a team like that, they might as well bring Don Nelson out of retirement.

[marc9211]

Originally Posted by moogle

I think I know what Cuban is planning to do next summer. The Mavs have enough cap room to sign only one star off free agency, but that won't stop them from acquiring two. Most likely, they'll sign one big free agent (like Rudy Gay). Then they'll use the remaining cap room to trade for another star. A trade would allow the Mavs to acquire a player worth 50% more than their remaining cap room.

Unfortunately, the Mavs don't have the assets to acquire a legitimate star in a trade. Without assets, the only "stars" they'll acquire are of the overpaid variety. Acquiring overpaid stars via salary dump... that's The Bank of Cuban circa 2003. The only overpaid "star" available in a pure salary dump will be David Lee. That's really the only realistic way Dallas can add two "stars" next summer.

Dirk Nowitzki. Monta Ellis. Jose Calderon. David Lee. Rudy Gay. That's where this 2-year plan is headed. With a team like that, they might as well bring Don Nelson out of retirement.

So David lee would be your center? I'm thinking that group with a Cousins,Larry Sanders, or Javelle McGee. I don't really like a Lee/Dirk combo

[sike]

Originally Posted by moogle

I think I know what Cuban is planning to do next summer. The Mavs have enough cap room to sign only one star off free agency, but that won't stop them from acquiring two. Most likely, they'll sign one big free agent (like Rudy Gay). Then they'll use the remaining cap room to trade for another star. A trade would allow the Mavs to acquire a player worth 50% more than their remaining cap room.

Unfortunately, the Mavs don't have the assets to acquire a legitimate star in a trade. Without assets, the only "stars" they'll acquire are of the overpaid variety. Acquiring overpaid stars via salary dump... that's The Bank of Cuban circa 2003. The only overpaid "star" available in a pure salary dump will be David Lee. That's really the only realistic way Dallas can add two "stars" next summer.

Dirk Nowitzki. Monta Ellis. Jose Calderon. David Lee. Rudy Gay. That's where this 2-year plan is headed. With a team like that, they might as well bring Don Nelson out of retirement.

The Mavs FO is not stupid enough to try and pair Dirk and David Lee. And unless you are projecting Dirk as a part time player at that point, it seems unthinkable.

[moogle]

Originally Posted by marc9211

So David lee would be your center? I'm thinking that group with a Cousins,Larry Sanders, or Javelle McGee. I don't really like a Lee/Dirk combo

Originally Posted by sike

The Mavs FO is not stupid enough to try and pair Dirk and David Lee. And unless you are projecting Dirk as a part time player at that point, it seems unthinkable.

I think the Mavs will try to acquire a second star player -- any star player -- via salary dump next summer. If the only player available is David Lee, then that's who they end up with. He is the best "star" player that can be realistically acquired in a salary dump. Can you think of a better player that will be realistically available in a pure salary dump? The only other names I have are Amare Stoudemire and possibly Eric Gordon.

It's not the first time the Mavs will take this desperate approach. They acquired Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison and Juwan Howard in the early 2000s. They all played the same position as Dirk, and were all terrible fits. But when the Mavs are desperate and the Bank of Cuban is open... they'll take whatever star is available, regardless of fit.

Next summer, Dirk signs his last NBA contract. They don't have time for 2-year plans and dry powders anymore. I think the Mavs shift gears and go all-in for the final stretch of Dirk's career.

[grndmstr_c]

David Lee is a good ways down the list of players Dallas will be targeting as frontcourt running mates for Dirk over what will likely be his last NBA contract. Of this I am quite confident. Any thought process that leads to him as a likely acquisition for the Mavs is probably making several missteps along the way.

[DTownKidd]

Originally Posted by marc9211

Rudy Gay!! There's no way he like Toronto.

Well in my honest opinion Toronto is bad ass. Exclude all that I don't want gay in the first place when we have monte locked up for a couple years.

[Five-ofan]

David lee isn't a star except in fantasy

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by MavsFTR

Cousins was 46% from the floor last year. Isn't that really poor for a center?

Yes. And he was 44 the year before. That being said he's an elite rebounder(13 and 12 per 36 the last 2 years) with legitimate offensive skills and the ability to be a great defender and has shown flashes of doing so. He's one of the ten most talented players in the nba, he's 22 and he's already a 17/10 guy in only 30 minutes a night. If he didn't have warts there would be no way in hades he'd be available.

[moogle]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

David lee isn't a star except in fantasy

David Lee is a "star" in the sense that he is a 2x All-Star and 1x All-NBA selection, including this year. Yes, I know. I can't believe that either. I had to look it up.

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Any thought process that leads to him as a likely acquisition for the Mavs is probably making several missteps along the way.

That thought process is called "desperation" and I'm pretty sure the Mavs are already at that point.

And those missteps have already been made. They're called "Tyson Chandler" and "Deron Williams" and "Chris Paul" and "Dwight Howard" and "Plan Powder"...

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by moogle

That thought process is called "desperation" and I'm pretty sure the Mavs are already at that point.

And I'm pretty sure they're not. Certainly not desperate enough that they've already mapped out a path to taking David Lee in a salary dump as a prime option for next summer.

And those missteps have already been made. They're called "Tyson Chandler" and "Deron Williams" and "Chris Paul" and "Dwight Howard" and "Plan Powder"...

Deliberately misunderstanding what I wrote, or was I not clear?

[He15man]

Man this line up gives me a chubb

PG. Jose Calderon
SG. Monta Ellis
SF. Shawn Marion
PF. Dirk Nowitzki
C. DeMarcus Cousins

Or if they found a way to get Rudy Gay in there and dump Marion

PG. Jose Calderon
SG. Monta Ellis
SF. Rudy Gay
PF. Dirk Nowitzki
C. DeMarcus Cousins

But those line ups are not going to happen outside of NBA 2k, but it would be nice.

[yahyes]

Can we just trade for Cousins now? Anyone except Dirk and maybe Carter/Mekel/Calderon/Ellis.

[ribosoma]

With Sacramento hanging onto an NBA franchise by a thread, I would be surprised if they dealt Cousins, unless they deal him for a player with comparable upside. Stern did everything he could short of personally packing a moving van to get the Kings out of town. If they deal him for a salary dump and picks, I think that would signal a pending move for the franchise.

[saclare]

Lakers reportedly want Melo and LeBron next offseason. Lol.

[Rick41]

Originally Posted by moogle

Next summer, the Mavs will have at least 8 players count towards their salary cap: Dirk, Monta, Calderon, Wright, Dalembert, Ellington, Larkin, and Mekel.

Wait, Mavs signed him?

[mavs777]

I don't see Deng as unlikely at all, I really don't think he will sign a extension unless they are willing to give up 14 mill+ per year which I doubt chicago will do

[moogle]

Originally Posted by mavs777

I don't see Deng as unlikely at all, I really don't think he will sign a extension unless they are willing to give up 14 mill+ per year which I doubt chicago will do

I think they will re-sign Deng, and then unload either Boozer or Gibson next summer. That will allow them to stay under the luxury tax. And it makes more sense to keep Deng rather than Boozer or Gibson. If the Bulls fail to unload either of them, then they'll just trade away Deng himself next summer so they'll at least get some assets back.

Of all the options the Bulls have available, letting Deng walk for nothing makes the least sense. Iguodala and Josh Smith's contracts have already set the market for Deng. I don't think the Bulls will have any trouble getting him to accept ~$14M.

[#41 Shoot em up]

I see the Mavs trading for Rondo at the TDL.

[nowhereman]

Originally Posted by #41 Shoot em up

I see the Mavs trading for Rondo at the TDL.

They have nothing Boston would want

[mavs777]

Their owner is extremely cheap (chicago) I doubt they will amnesty someone not to play

[Five-ofan]

I really don't understand the rondo love. He's not a top 30 player IMO and is probably the single most overrated player in basketball. Honestly if I really sat down and thought about it, he might not be a top 50 player

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

I really don't understand the rondo love. He's not a top 30 player IMO and is probably the single most overrated player in basketball. Honestly if I really sat down and thought about it, he might not be a top 50 player

I'd love to see your list of players above him. Or just your PGs you think are better...

[jamaljasonandjimmy]