Numbers of WC against LAL (an interesting read from La-La land)

[ZueriMav]

I don't now whether it's been already posted. I found it by Hoopsworld I look forward to seeing the new Mav's squad playing against the new *akers. I hope the numbers don't lie [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]
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By the Numbers
By Eric (emplay) Pincus
for HOOPSWORLD.com
Sep 1, 2003, 04:43 Email this article



As we all drift past the NBA vacation month of August into September with the Lakers roster nearly set, I find myself searching for topics. Fact is I’m bored. I can’t speculate on Kobe’s fate anymore. I can’t debate Shaq’s exact weight and body fat percentile anymore. Time to do something different.



At heart I’m a stats guy, so let’s have a little fun with the numbers.



I’m going to construct the theoretical starting lineups for the top 5 seeded teams in the West from the previous one. Looking at the stats from just the regular season match ups, I want to see how each player matched up individually against the Lakers. I also took the corresponding Laker numbers against each opponent.



Bear with me, as teams change each year, so do individual contributions. Bench players with a large scoring role are not represented.



That said, here are the results:



San Antonio Spurs



Player ppg Laker

Tim Duncan 21.3 Kobe Bryant 31.5

Tony Parker 14.5 Shaquille O’Neal 26.5

Rasho Nesterovic 12.8 Gary Payton 20.2

Emanuel Ginobili 9.3 Karl Malone 14.0

Bruce Bowen 6.5 Devean George 9.0

Total 64.3 Total 101.0



The Spurs turned over 40% of their starting lineup. Gone are David Robinson and Stephen Jackson. Nesterovic fills in comparably statistically to the Admiral, but Ginobili (or Hedo Turkoglu if that’s who Coach Greg Popovich starts) will have to score consistently to pick up the slack. The Spurs look somewhat anemic offensively based on these numbers . . . but I wouldn’t expect them to suffer terribly. They deepened their bench with Turkoglu, Ron Mercer and even LA’s own Robert Horry. Don’t forget Malik Rose who can score in bunches when he’s hot.



As far as the Lakers go, Kobe scored a lot of points at a low shooting percentage (37.5%). Nice to see Gary above 20 ppg, but the Mailman at 14 isn’t entirely encouraging. With fewer shots for the Laker newcomers, I would expect lower scoring averages than what they were able to tally in the past. With Rick Fox on the mend, LA has turned over 60% of their starting lineup from the previous season.



Minnesota Timberwolves



Player ppg Laker

Kevin Garnett 21.0 Shaquille O’Neal 28.5

Latrell Sprewell 19.0 Karl Malone 25.0

Sam Cassell 17.5 Kobe Bryant 24.3

Michael Olowokandi 13.5 Gary Payton 20.5

Wally Szczerbiak 11.5 Devean George 6.0

Total 82.5 Total 104.0



Minnesota also changed 60% of their starting lineup with some bold trades and the quick signing of Michael Olowokandi to replace Nesterovic. That’s a lot firepower on the court but will their defense be enough? Last season the top 4 Lakers averaged just under 100 ppg against the Wolves. Minny doesn’t have much of a bench, but they do have Troy Hudson who averaged 14 ppg during the regular season and 23.5 ppg in the playoffs against the Lakers. LA doesn’t have much bench to speak of either offensively, with Derek Fisher as the only player likely to approach double-digit scoring.



Sacramento Kings



Player ppg Laker

Peja Stojakovic 26.3 Kobe Bryant 33.3

Chris Webber 25.0 Shaquille O’Neal 30.8

Mike Bibby 19.5 Karl Malone 22.0

Doug Christie 7.5 Gary Payton 18.7

Vlade Divac 6.3 Devean George 7.5

Total 84.5 Total 112.0



The Kings have a trio of big scorers in Peja, C-Webb and Bibby. Vlade and Christie are essentially designated defenders. The combined 51.3 ppg from the pair of King forwards is quite short of Shaq and Kobe’s 64.1 ppg. The Kings will need contributions from their thinner (with the loss of Turkoglu, Keon Clark and possibly Jimmy Jackson) but still potent bench with Bobby Jackson and All-Star Brad Miller. Bobby didn’t do much against LA last season at just 9.3 ppg while Miller was a more solid at 14.5 ppg (as a n Indiana Pacer).



So far so good (statistically speaking) for the Lakers . . .



Dallas Mavericks



Player ppg Laker

Antawn Jamison 24.0 Shaquille O’Neal 23.7

Dirk Nowitzki 22.5 Kobe Bryant 19.0

Steve Nash 22.5 Karl Malone 18.3

Michael Finley 14.5 Gary Payton 16.0

Raef LaFrentz 12.7 Devean George 10.3

Total 96.2 Total 87.2



Dallas is a different story. Not only did only one Laker average over 20 ppg, the newest addition to the Mavs has a history of scoring in bunches against LA. Antawn Jamison (replacing the traded Nick Van Exel) steps in as the leading scorer on an already potent offense. Remember Jamison matching Kobe to 51 points each in a Golden State Warrior victory over the then World Champions? Bryant, Malone and Payton all scored below their averages against a team not known for their defense.



The Bottom Line

Dallas never seems to get much respect around the league. Never mind that they got further than the Lakers and Kings last season. Forget that they perplexed the Spurs with gimmicky but effective zone defenses in the Western Conference Finals. Maybe it’s Mark Cuban or Don Nelson, but the Mavs are the Rodney Dangerfield of the elite NBA.




Numbers can be funny . . . but based on the digits alone . . . Dallas stacks up better than the rest of the elite against the Purple and Gold.
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[Tarzan]

Nice analysis. I can't wait for the regular season to start. Actually, I can't wait for the preseason to start.

[Simon2]

I am excited to see the first game. I know its just a first game but if the Mavs can beat the Lakers, that would be very, very nice.

[ames7]

Obviously that analysis doesn't tell the whole story, but it's nice to read something positive about the Mavs every once in a while.

[one long blue sock]

Well I don't know how much it is going to tell the truth, but he got across 1 point that i thought was right.

Besides LA, Dallas had the best off season.

SA took in risky moves signing Horry, and getting Hedo. Losing DROB didn't help at all either.

Sac lost all of their depth, probably their best weapon. For a 13, 9 IN THE EAST. Bad move.

Minn, they didn't really give up much, but they didn't get anything back.

But Dallas had 2 problems, SF and C. They tried to address the C, couldn't, so they addressed the SF, and got back an all-star. Then they needed depth at PG. And got it by a perfect fit, Best. Not to mention that by doing these things, they got younger, and received more depth.

[Chiwas]

Obviously that analysis doesn't tell the whole story...

Yep, but the real story could be worse for the Lakers. Too much ego grouped there.

[ames7]

Minne's offseason is vastly overrated. That drives me crazy.

[one long blue sock]

Originally posted by: Chiwas

Yep, but the real story could be worse for the Lakers. Too much ego grouped there.

And that Malone won't average nearly that.
And Bryant might be in jail
And Shaq's toe
And Payton's age

Stats is the thing going for the Lakes.

[MavsFanatik33]

I don't think anyone but us think that Dallas can beat LA. Can't wait for the first week... La first and then we face Van Exel's new crew, should be interesting.

[Psychedelic Fuzz]

Interesting read, but it's clearly the product of boredom on the writer's part; however, we finally got someone to give us props, and someone in LA, no less.
that one paragraph has made my day.

[jayC]

Its interesting to see raef avgd 12 ppg against LA. I am so pumped for the season. No more double teams especially if Raef plays like he did two years ago.

[EricaLubarsky]

That makes me so incredibly happy. Im counting down the days until we can really see what will happen.

[Psychedelic Fuzz]

What I want to see is the Fortson of 2 years ago