Nerlens Noel

[walter]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Hes going to want a max. Would much rather max Noel (if forced, prefer 17-20m) than 30 year old DJ, who has shown he's not willing to work on his game, or really, we know what his game is at this point.

Also fuck DeAndre Jordan. Just in general.

[tap2390]

I NEVER want to see DeAndre on this team. A man who can't keep his word has no place here.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by tap2390

I NEVER want to see DeAndre on this team. A man who can't keep his word has no place here.

This.

Plus his teammates don't really seem to like being around him

[SMC0007]

I can't imagine a single person that would want DJ here...especially anyone in the FO

[EricaLubarsky]

Coop may be full of crap but when asked if he thought Noel would take QO he said

"Nope. It will be either 4 with player option on 5th, or 3 w/team option on 4th. All likelihood he's with Mavs for four years"

[spreedom]

I hope he's right.

[Thebo]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I hope he's right.

I think these are the two options offered by the Mavs and it is up to Noel, which one he wants to take. Team option offering more money per year and player option offering less. This would make sense.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Coop may be full of crap but when asked if he thought Noel would take QO he said

"Nope. It will be either 4 with player option on 5th, or 3 w/team option on 4th. All likelihood he's with Mavs for four years"

I think Coop is just making an educated guess -- I doubt he has any inside information... Although it's a logical conclusion.

It would be nice if the years/options are the sticking point, rather than the raw dollar amount. It would mean we're closer to a deal than reported.

[Underdog]

So I was listening to the Locked on Mavs podcast, and they mentioned that Harrison Barnes was upset with an offseason grade that some writer gave us... He seemed to think we should have scored higher because of all the cap space we'll have next summer, which is a pretty clear indication that we're going to be chasing a big fish (and probably explains why we're trying to keep Noel's payday manageable).

On the podcast, they speculated that we could be chasing Boogie to PAIR with Nerlens. I'd say the possibility of a DSJ/Wes/Barnes/Cousins/Noel lineup is definitely worth a shot, especially with Cousins trimming his weight and extending his range. That could be an instant contender right there. And even if we're not chasing him, the idea of getting another max contract into that core is intriguing.

They also did a bit of reading between the lines on an Earl K Sneed comment and came to the conclusion that Noel never sought offers from other teams, and that Dallas was his only choice. If so, then I have absolutely no idea what the holdup is here...

How much cap space do we have left? Are we simply waiting to see if there's anyone else we can sign before going over the cap to bring back Noel? Things aren't exactly adding up from an outsider's point of view.

[BigDog63]

Originally Posted by spreedom

[url]
Bolded has my thoughts... I would much rather "overpay" him by $2-3M/year than risk losing him next year for nothing. And I believe with reasonable certainty that he will leave next summer if he plays this year on the qualifying offer.

Why do you believe that? You think he would go somewhere else for less money?

We have no idea at this point what Noel will be. He is the epitome of the word 'potential'. Everyone seems to assume he is the next coming of Tyson Chandler. But what if he's more like Samuel Dalembert or Brandon Wright? Would we want either of those centers locked in for a high dollar, long term contract?

What this is is a smart move. Mavs *could* pay him big bux now, but that would be risky, and in the current situation, unnecessary. It seems like Noel expects to be paid to his potential. So, why not wait a year, and see if he achieves it? That could cost the Mavs a few million more a year than it would now, but they avoid the risk of overpaying now for someone who doesn't achieve that full potential. I like Noel, and know his situation is a bit unique...but NBA players seldom greatly exceed what they've done over the first four years.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by Underdog

So I was listening to the Locked on Mavs podcast, and they mentioned that Harrison Barnes was upset with an offseason grade that some writer gave us... He seemed to think we should have scored higher because of all the cap space we'll have next summer, which is a pretty clear indication that we're going to be chasing a big fish (and probably explains why we're trying to keep Noel's payday manageable).

On the podcast, they speculated that we could be chasing Boogie to PAIR with Nerlens. I'd say the possibility of a DSJ/Wes/Barnes/Cousins/Noel lineup is definitely worth a shot, especially with Cousins trimming his weight and extending his range. That could be an instant contender right there. And even if we're not chasing him, the idea of getting another max contract into that core is intriguing.

They also did a bit of reading between the lines on an Earl K Sneed comment and came to the conclusion that Noel never sought offers from other teams, and that Dallas was his only choice. If so, then I have absolutely no idea what the holdup is here...

How much cap space do we have left? Are we simply waiting to see if there's anyone else we can sign before going over the cap to bring back Noel? Things aren't exactly adding up from an outsider's point of view.

I would be on board with Boogie chasing. There's risk, but sometimes you have to take a big swing. If we could dump Powell and Wes(or if Wes opts out to re-sign?)we could potentially re-sign Seth and sign Boogie? Anyone know how feasible this is?

[SMC0007]

I see Boogie as a waste of time and a locker room threat.

[spreedom]

Originally Posted by BigDog63

Why do you believe that? You think he would go somewhere else for less money?

For one thing, I don't know why you would assume wherever else he goes would be for less money. Why would you assume that? It's only "less money" if you're comparing teams' ability to sign players at max contracts when you figure in years and annual raises. Right now, it doesn't look like Nerlens is going to be a max player.

And let's keep in mind that next summer, assuming Nerlens took the QO this year, he would be UFA instead of RFA. That means teams are going to jump at the chance to sign him as opposed to having the built-in disadvantage of the restricted status. Right now 7 other teams project to have $18M+ in cap space next summer, and another 6 teams are one moderate salary dump away from having $20M+ in space. So of those 13, it takes one to call him at 12:01 AM to charm him and sign him right away.

As a longtime supporter of Nerlens and a proponent of trading for him for well over a year, I would rather overpay him by a few million a year now than risk losing him next year for nothing, which is what I expect would happen. I don't believe there is any precedent for a guy taking the QO and then re-signing with that team. If there is, please correct me.

[spreedom]

And I'm not a huge fan of pairing Boogie and Nerlens because in today's NBA, both are far more suited to play center. If we're pairing the two, we're probably sinking well over 50% of our cap into two guys who should be playing the same position, and neither has a history of playoff success.

I'm happy with Boogie as a consolation prize but prefer to sign Nerlens as the defensive anchor of the team for the next decade.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Yeah, I don't really buy the Cousins stuff. Mavs have a long road ahead before worrying about chasing big fish again.

[DirkFTW]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I see Boogie as a waste of time and a locker room threat.

So you're saying he's a quadruple threat player!

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by DirkFTW

So you're saying he's a quadruple threat player!

For lack of a better term, yes.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I don't believe there is any precedent for a guy taking the QO and then re-signing with that team. If there is, please correct me.

http://uproxx.com/dimemag/report-loo...lifying-offer/

There isn't precedent because players just don't do it often. Because the obvious injury risk but also because accepting a QO usually means leaving money on the table that you can never get back.

For example if we offered him a 4year 64m contract(16m avg annual) and had the built in raises his contract this year would be for 14.4m. His QO is a hair under 4.2m so that is 10.2m he will lose outright by signing a QO. And now next year if he signed a 4 year 80m deal and the salary started at 18.7 in year 1 he would have been at that time making 15.4 on the 2nd year of his deal we offered prior. Meaning he gains 3m but is still short 7m from his losses from the year prior. And if you follow it 3 years till his contract would have been up from our offer he is still losing money or at best breaking even. And then depending on what team option/player options he could be looking at a brand new deal or whatever. But the point is it is very hard to make up 10m in lost money. If we were offering a contract of 16m annual, he would basically have to be a max player for it to be worth the risk. And even then he's risking losing 10m off the start, and maybe 3-5m a year(or worse) if he got hurt while playing on the QO for a reward of 4 years later he might start making more than what we offered by becoming a max player. But if he became a max player he would obviously get the max from us his next go around... so again, it really doesn't make sense for him to do it as long as we are making a quality offer.

[Melonhead]

One of them on the Locked on podcast made a good point regarding Noel injury. Mavs wouldve never traded for him in the first place if they thought his knees would be an issue. I really do think Mavs are probably offering a 12m range contract in order to keep his money manageable and give them room for next offseason. Or it could be what someone posted above regarding years. Not a lot of info to go on though. Obviously some reading between lines.

[BigDog63]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

One of them on the Locked on podcast made a good point regarding Noel injury. Mavs wouldve never traded for him in the first place if they thought his knees would be an issue. I really do think Mavs are probably offering a 12m range contract in order to keep his money manageable and give them room for next offseason. Or it could be what someone posted above regarding years. Not a lot of info to go on though. Obviously some reading between lines.

Mavs know what Bryan_Wilson posted...it's hard to make up for lost money. Combine that with uncertainty as to just how good Noel would actually be, yes, they made an offer somewhere in the 12M range. Which Noel found 'insulting' I believe, was the word, albeit I believe from his agent. So, they seem far apart. It seems like his agent is whispering in his ear that he IS a max contract player, and he believes it. Given that...what offer would he take?

[BigDog63]

Originally Posted by spreedom

For one thing, I don't know why you would assume wherever else he goes would be for less money. Why would you assume that? It's only "less money" if you're comparing teams' ability to sign players at max contracts when you figure in years and annual raises. Right now, it doesn't look like Nerlens is going to be a max player.

Hence the standoff, because he seems to think he is.

Also, max or not, the Mavs are capable of offering at least as much as any other team. Noel won't be the most sought after free agent next year. He and the Mavs, though, might both be gambling on what he might get next year.

It is interesting that no one seems to have made an offer on him. Yes, they know the Mavs would match, but when was the last time a RFA like this didn't even get any offers? It does indicate, to your point, that he isn't a max player, or teams would be throwing money at him right now.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by BigDog63

Hence the standoff, because he seems to think he is.

Also, max or not, the Mavs are capable of offering at least as much as any other team. Noel won't be the most sought after free agent next year. He and the Mavs, though, might both be gambling on what he might get next year.

It is interesting that no one seems to have made an offer on him. Yes, they know the Mavs would match, but when was the last time a RFA like this didn't even get any offers? It does indicate, to your point, that he isn't a max player, or teams would be throwing money at him right now.

If Im a gambling man, Im betting on Noel over the Mavs in a free agency standoff next offseason. Those never work well for the FO...Podcast indicated he didnt even go out and get offers. Idk how much of that to believe, there were just reading between the lines. I think 2016 has messed with a lot of people, and most offseasons will never be like last years in terms of contracts.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

A good question to ponder...

Who comes off the bench if Noel starts?

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

A good question to ponder...

Who comes off the bench if Noel starts?

I assume the starting 5 is
DSJ, Wes, HB, Dirk, Noel.
Dirk comes out, HB and Wes slide up to the 3/4 and Seth comes in at the 2.
DSJ, Seth, Wes, HB, Noel.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

A good question to ponder...

Who comes off the bench if Noel starts?

Seth is so much better from the start and they aren't benching Matthews or Barnes

So either we start Seth at point or either Dirk or Noel come off the bench

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by BPo001

I assume the starting 5 is
DSJ, Wes, HB, Dirk, Noel.
Dirk comes out, HB and Wes slide up to the 3/4 and Seth comes in at the 2.
DSJ, Seth, Wes, HB, Noel.

At this point, I would have to assume this would be the case as well.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Seth is so much better from the start and they aren't benching Matthews or Barnes

So either we start Seth at point or either Dirk or Noel come off the bench

So are you saying you would potentially start Seth over DSJ?

[SMC0007]

Only way DSJ comes off the bench is if he is horrible in camp, which isn't happening. I can't see how that plays out where all the excitement which may be the only thing we have to hold around here is left out of the starting lineup. One might argue that he is the biggest lock at a starter we have here.

[purplefrog]

A starting lineup of DSJ, Seth, Wes, HB, and Dirk might be able to get a single rebound, but then again, maybe not. Hyperbole aside, while I can imagine the Mavs exploring that lineup on opening day, I can't believe Carlisle would stick with it for very long.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Seth is so much better from the start and they aren't benching Matthews or Barnes

So either we start Seth at point or either Dirk or Noel come off the bench

My thoughts as well. Seth plays much better after getting into a rhythm. Think Noel will be off the bench. Dirk starts/plays 5 min ish, and Noel comes in and people can slide around as needed.

We have to see Seth follow up last season AND can he share the floor with DSJ. If he can, resign Seth. If he cant...

EDIT: As purple frog pointed out, but rebounds. Rick has his work cut out per usual.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

My thoughts as well. Seth plays much better after getting into a rhythm. Think Noel will be off the bench. Dirk starts/plays 5 min ish, and Noel comes in and people can slide around as needed.

We have to see Seth follow up last season AND can he share the floor with DSJ. If he can, resign Seth. If he cant...

EDIT: As purple frog pointed out, but rebounds. Rick has his work cut out per usual.

Although I'm not keen on that situation I think you are about dead on. We will get killed on the glass and on defense with a Dirk/Barnes front court but the Mavs simply have to find out if a DSJ/Seth backcourt is the future.

Personally I'd move Wes to the bench at first because Barnes is a good enough defender and Noel would help make up for any other deficiencies on defense and would improve our rebounding woes.

Ultimately though I'd rather see Wes move to the SG and let Seth evolve into the JET 6th man roll.

[SMC0007]

Why pay Noel to come off the bench knowing you will have massive rebounding issues as well as defensive issues? Especially considering Seth in theory should be able to roll off the bench and be a scoring threat. If we didn't start in a hole so much last season, I would not care much about starters vs minutes played, but it's a problem when you can't set some sort of defensive tone to the game.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

So are you saying you would potentially start Seth over DSJ?

This year at least, although it sounds like Rick wants him to start.

Unfortunately Dirk can shoot and rebound but he can't defend. Noel can defend and kinda rebound, but he can't shoot. Same issues we seem to always have at center and we haven't yet invented a way to combine players or else we'd have a player with Fortson's rebounding, LaFrentz's shooting, and Bradley's height.

I think it all comes down to Smith and Curry's play. If they can take care of a lot of the offensive burden, then we can afford to have Dirk off the floor and maybe even start Noel. Last season we couldn't play Noel much because we couldn't afford to bench Dirk or we'd score 70 points a game, even when playing Dirk made our defense porous. We just simply needed the scoring so bad that Rick even tried posting up Matthews. If the guards step up, the whole game is changed. If they don't, then we're still in the same purgatory of not being able to score. Barnes may step up a bit and Matthews can make the game easier for guards, but he's not going to shoulder the offensive burden for any team with a chance at making the playoffs. It's all on the guards to keep things interesting.

If Smith can create and Curry can stay hot, then we can go with DSJ/Curry/Matthews/Barnes/Noel.

Otherwise we may have to play Curry at point or Dirk at center for prolonged periods, meaning Noel rots on the bench

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Sooo the Mavs need scoring and need rebounding. They need both pretty badly which equates to just not being a very good team.

The good news is that I think DSJ can provide both scoring/playmaking AND rebounding. I think his ability as a rebounder has largely gone under the radar. We need guard rebounding like a marooned sailor needs water, and he'll have to really deliver there if he wants to be a 30mpg starter. I think he will.

And I'm still surprised that Matthews gets to start no matter what from most opinions. I'd seriously consider bringing him off the bench and do DSJ/Curry/Barnes/Dirk/Noel. I think you could get away with Noel at the 4 on defense and Dirk the 5. Noel is quick enough for that lineup to work IMO.

[saclare]

Seth or Wes start the game on the bench. I can't see it any other way.

DSJ - rookie PG will get his minutes. Seth can play PG for spells, but it isn't his position
Barnes - may be the safest bet on the team actually to start
Dirk - little tricky, but your franchise player and future HOF legend isn't quite done to be relegated to 6th man
Noel - I don't believe a starting lineup featuring Dirk at center will be close to as good as one with both Dirk and Noel on the floor together

I personally think Seth Curry ends up coming off the bench. I get the arguments for him starting, but he will get plenty of minutes in stretches for this team. For me, I see this current roster (plus Noel since it's not official) being 6 guys who will all be around 30 minutes a game (maybe less for maintenance with Dirk) and the rest can go to quality back-up rotational guys in Barea, Harris, Yogi, DFS, Powell, and Mejri. I don't think McRoberts, Kleber, Motley (maybe, but I think he needs a little development), Ashley, or Dozier getting much burn with the way the current roster is structured.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by saclare

Seth or Wes start the game on the bench. I can't see it any other way.

DSJ - rookie PG will get his minutes. Seth can play PG for spells, but it isn't his position
Barnes - may be the safest bet on the team actually to start
Dirk - little tricky, but your franchise player and future HOF legend isn't quite done to be relegated to 6th man
Noel - I don't believe a starting lineup featuring Dirk at center will be close to as good as one with both Dirk and Noel on the floor together

I personally think Seth Curry ends up coming off the bench. I get the arguments for him starting, but he will get plenty of minutes in stretches for this team. For me, I see this current roster (plus Noel since it's not official) being 6 guys who will all be around 30 minutes a game (maybe less for maintenance with Dirk) and the rest can go to quality back-up rotational guys in Barea, Harris, Yogi, DFS, Powell, and Mejri. I don't think McRoberts, Kleber, Motley (maybe, but I think he needs a little development), Ashley, or Dozier getting much burn with the way the current roster is structured.

Another reason for moving Seth to the bench is the lack of bench offense that will most likely occur with this current roster. Nearly all of our bench scoring will come from the guard positions (Yogi and JJ). Seth would be perfect in that role because he has proven he can put up big numbers and would be able to play against 2nd units.

Also, Seth and Yogi played well together last season and could become one of the best 2nd unit backcourts in the league imo.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by saclare

I don't think McRoberts, Kleber, Motley (maybe, but I think he needs a little development), Ashley, or Dozier getting much burn with the way the current roster is structured.

I'm very intrigued with Kleber and am thinking he could be a really good find and fit for this team. He seems to have the qualities we need and have been looking for in Powell. He's a 37% 3pt shooter, 83% FT shooter, fairly athletic, decent handles, pretty aggressive in the paint, runs the floor well, good size at PF, decent rebounding numbers (6.3) and doesn't look too bad on D.

This is a great opportunity for him and could see him being a great fit if he has the right attitude and takes advantage of the opportunity. He'll be one that I'll be watching very closely in preseason.

[EricaLubarsky]

I don't disagree with people wanting Matthews off the bench, it's just 100% not going to happen. Rick will start him and Rick will play him 38mpg+. End of story.

Curry makes sense as a spark plug and Rick seems willing to play him off the bench, but his stats were just so much better as a starter.

It's a quandary for sure.

[MavzMan]

I thought they had discussed at the end of last season that Dirk may move to a bench role. It actually makes sense to keep the offense rolling when the starters take their first sit. I know it's an ego thing but could he pull a Ginobili move .... come off the bench at start, keep the team moving in the middle, and then finish the game at the end?

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I don't disagree with people wanting Matthews off the bench, it's just 100% not going to happen. Rick will start him and Rick will play him 38mpg+. End of story.

Curry makes sense as a spark plug and Rick seems willing to play him off the bench, but his stats were just so much better as a starter.

It's a quandary for sure.

Yea, Mathews off the bench isn't going to happen, and it's for the same reasons I expect Noel to start. You have to set a defensive tone if you can and their salary is tough to swallow as bench/role players. Mathews can not come off the bench and provide scoring the same way Seth can so once you get past the starting group and the tone you are trying to establish, the minutes can be given out in the flow, and Wes can sink or swim imo.