The Kings v. Mavs Defensive Statistical Breakdown - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

aexchange · 05-06-2003, 08:54 AM

Some numbers crunching I've done while being bored at work. I think you'll be a bit surprised at what the numbers tell us.

Dallas and Sacramento allowed the same amount of points per game in the regular season at 95.2

Sacramento was first in the league in opponents FG% at 42% while the Mavs were 11th at 43.8%

Sacramento was 12th in the league in blocked shots per game at 5.573 while the Mavs were 13th at 5.476 per game.

Sacramento was 2nd in the league in steals per game at 8.976 while the Mavs were 11th at 8.11 per game.

Dallas was 5th in the league in forcing opponents to turn the ball over an average of 16.049 times per game while Sacramento was 10th at 15.39.

jayC · 05-06-2003, 09:33 AM

What that sacramento does everything that we do but better?

aexchange · 05-06-2003, 09:54 AM

that their defense is neglegibly better than ours.

if anything their defense is overrated.

mavsfanforever · 05-06-2003, 10:10 AM

We might have learned a few lessons after playing Blazers. It would go a long way.

sturm und drang · 05-06-2003, 10:21 AM

"Sacramento was first in the league in opponents FG% at 42% while the Mavs were 11th at 43.8%"

I know this is a matter of opinion, but that to me is the most valuable statistic of the ones you posted. I would love to say that the Kings' defense is "negligably" better than ours, but I think it's considerably better. I would agree if you said their rebounding is only marginally better-- in fact, I'm not sure they're any better at all-- but when it comes to defense, they definitely have the upper hand.

Something else to consider when pitting our defense versus the Kings. Some of our somewhat "gaudy" stats were garnered by playing a mix of zone defenses that we have almost perfected to compensate for our innate defensive deficiencies. These zones confused and puzzled teams, especially early in the year, and made us appear to be a better defensive team than we really are. Unfortunately for us, the Kings' forte is their excellent ball movement-- which, as we all know, is a zone killer. We're going to be forced to rely more on straight up man-to-man, which exposes our weaknesses.

The Kings are more successful at shredding our zone than any other team in the NBA-- effectively eliminating one of the devices that helped us to improve defensively this year.

aexchange · 05-06-2003, 10:28 AM

i dont think defense is going to determine this series.

neither team has shown me that they can stop each other.

the sad sack kings routinely allowed the mavs to get into the 110 pt range routinely every game. i think this series will come down to a number of things:

1. in game management
2. who can hit their outside jumpers
3. grabbing timely rebounds

we are not facing the newest incarnation of the piston bad boys. the kings can't stop us offensively, and we can't stop them defensively either. i think this series will be determined by who wants it more, and who can outscore the other.

for those kings homers predicting a kings sweep, get real.

Ummmmm Ok · 05-06-2003, 10:32 AM

One word describes this series "SHOOTOUT"

LRB · 05-06-2003, 10:50 AM

<< What that sacramento does everything that we do but better? >>

Well they don't force turnovers better, but that's about it.

kg_veteran · 05-06-2003, 10:54 AM

To those that argue that the Kings are a considerably better defensive team, consider this. If you throw out the first matchup of the season where the Kings blew the Mavs out and the Mavs didn't have starters on the floor in the fourth quarter (unlike the Kings), the vaunted Kings defense has given up 121 points per game against the Mavericks, as compared to the 120 points per game the Mavericks defense has given up against the Kings. My point? Aexchange is exactly right. Neither team can stop the other, and this series will come down to which team rebounds better, makes better in-game adjustments, and is able to make more shots.

Period.

Murphy3 · 05-06-2003, 10:55 AM

defense will ALWAYS play a huge role in determining the outcome of a series.

one area the Kings are notably better is their outside defense..they do not allow nearly as much penetration. Penetration will kill the ability of the mavs inside players to be effective and stay out of foul trouble.

If too much penetration occurs by the kings like last year, the mavs will lose this series quickly

sturm und drang · 05-06-2003, 11:13 AM

<< defense will ALWAYS play a huge role in determining the outcome of a series.

one area the Kings are notably better is their outside defense..they do not allow nearly as much penetration. Penetration will kill the ability of the mavs inside players to be effective and stay out of foul trouble.

If too much penetration occurs by the kings like last year, the mavs will lose this series quickly >>

Absolutely. And we've already seen the Blazers guards tear up our perimeter defense, so I'm dreading what Bibby and Jackson will do.

Bibby should give Steve a kick-back on that $80M contract he signed this summer-- which was based on the way he demolished Nash in the playoffs last year. I'll be interested to watch Bibby progress and see if he can reach anywhere near the level he attained in last year's round 2.

Murphy3 · 05-06-2003, 11:21 AM

exactly right sturm

Now, are the Kings markedly better than the mavs on the defensive end? They can be, but they do not have to be.

The Mavs are just about as capable as the kings of putting up a solid defensive effort..it's just a matter of doing it. And it must start with the perimeter defenders.

kg_veteran · 05-06-2003, 12:02 PM

I don't think I said that defense wouldn't make a difference -- just that neither team is very good at defending the other one.

There's just no reason that Dallas can't do well enough on the perimeter to stay in this series.

I would agree that the Blazers guards torched the Mavs perimeter defenders -- at times. But there were also stretches where Nash, Van Exel and Finley played pretty good on the perimeter defensively. It's just a matter of extending those stretches and also mixing in an expanded rotation with Griffin and Bell.

Here's an interesting quote from Doug Christie:

<< DALLAS (AP) -- Based on what happened the last three times the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings played, their second-round playoff series should be highly entertaining.

Only nine points separated the winners from the losers, with the Kings taking the first two and Dallas the last one. The first was decided by one in the final seconds. The next two went to overtime and were both won by the road team.

``It was really the luck of the draw, if you want to be honest about it,'' said Sacramento's Doug Christie. ``But we're pretty confident against them. They play our style of basketball, and that always makes it a fun game.'' >>

I guess this is my point. The teams aren't that far apart. It's who has confidence and who wants it more -- everything else flows from that.

Hoopsmeister · 05-06-2003, 12:20 PM

<< There's just no reason that Dallas can't do well enough on the perimeter to stay in this series. >>

You would think. But I have recurring nightmares of last year when Bibby and Jackson penetrated at will severely overtaxing our big men's help defense. And I haven't seen a lot this year to make me think our perimeter defense is that much stronger. I am slightly more optimistic in that this year we have 2 additional big men (Bradley, who is good for killing layup drills and is playing this year, and Najera who is good at taking charges and is, if not 100%, at least playing this year as well) to help take up the inside slack.

kg_veteran · 05-06-2003, 12:28 PM

<<

<< There's just no reason that Dallas can't do well enough on the perimeter to stay in this series. >>

You would think. But I have recurring nightmares of last year when Bibby and Jackson penetrated at will severely overtaxing our big men's help defense. And I haven't seen a lot this year to make me think our perimeter defense is that much stronger. I am slightly more optimistic in that this year we have 2 additional big men (Bradley, who is good for killing layup drills and is playing this year, and Najera who is good at taking charges and is, if not 100%, at least playing this year as well) to help take up the inside slack. >>

Hoops, great to see you around, and you make a great point. Bradley will most certainly get playing time this year where he didn't last year, and Najera will be available where he wasn't last year. I said last week that if Najera plays in every game, the Mavericks will win. It's his ability to hustle and scrap inside that will give the Kings fits, and Shawn will shut down the layup line. The Kings will still get a good number of easy baskets, but it won't be anything like the nightmare of last year (yes, I have those nightmares too).

Chiwas · 05-06-2003, 01:33 PM

Besides the Shawn and Nájera factors, I'd coinsider also Griffin (to guard Peja, to brake their small ball) and a willing and foul-less LaF.

And a tough man-to-man defense with pressure starting in the half court. We don't have a good zone defense anymore, and against the queens, it's like a hot knife cutting butter.

I would like to see the hard fouls coming soon, maybe from the second bench, Raja, TAW or Esch. But I know that they aren't going to step in early, if even happens.

And Najera, NVE and Dirk (and LaF [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-sad.gif[/img])have to penetrate their zone.

Nash has to stop Bibby, no matter how, and maybe TAW (or Fin [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-frown.gif[/img] ) should be glued to Jackson.

Easy (with a lot of heart).

P.S. And good earplugs to use in Sactown.

Murphy3 · 05-06-2003, 01:56 PM

kg, the remark wasn't directed to your comment...was directed to this comment:

<< i dont think defense is going to determine this series. >>

Murphy3 · 05-06-2003, 01:59 PM

i wouldn't expect the mavs interior defenders to be eaten up as badly as they were versus the blazers..the kings aren't nearly as athletic.

the mavs should hopefully be able to slow down the layup drill and at least break out even on the boards.

Now, will the mavs supply any perimeter defense? that's yet to be determined. they had their difficulties with portland...and i fear the kings' perimeter players much more off of the drive than I do the blazers players.

so, we'll see. players such as griff and bell should log considerable minutes this series

Drbio · 05-06-2003, 02:01 PM

<< so, we'll see. players such as griff and bell should log considerable minutes this series >>

Yep, and probably TAW as well.

Quick Dog · 05-06-2003, 02:14 PM

IMHO, I think that the comparison of regular season statistics may not be particularly useful in predicting the outcome of the 2003 NBA playoffs, at least where the Kings are concerned. The Kings played with a horrific number of key injuries this year, more than 500 player-injury-days in this season. Coach Adelman had to improvise his starting squads all year. All of the Kings players finally returned to the line-up in April. The have been learning to play together since. Therefore, their first real test, as a whole and healthy team, was the first-round series with the Utah Jazz.

My biggest apprehension is that the Kings will not have the opportunity to close-out the Lakers in the WCF. We will not get to see Phil Jackson, with his pinched face, whining to the sports reporters at the big post-game interview.

aexchange · 05-09-2003, 10:21 AM

<< defense will ALWAYS play a huge role in determining the outcome of a series.

one area the Kings are notably better is their outside defense..they do not allow nearly as much penetration. Penetration will kill the ability of the mavs inside players to be effective and stay out of foul trouble.

If too much penetration occurs by the kings like last year, the mavs will lose this series quickly >>

sacto has looked like dallas from last year, letting NVE and nash get into the lane at will. its a freakin layup drill out there.

this is not a matchup of defensive juggernauts, and defense will not be a factor in this series.

TheKid · 05-09-2003, 11:48 AM

This I do know, unless the Mavs plan on shooting like they did lastnight the remainder of this series, they better play better defense. They still didn't play good defense yesterday (with the exception of the second quarter). They gave up 110 points. While I LOVED that game lastnight because I think we saw what happens when EVERYONE is on, the Mavs can be a scary team but the reality is, they won't be like that everynight. So they better LEARN TO PLAY DEFENSE...

aexchange · 05-09-2003, 11:58 AM

<< This I do know, unless the Mavs plan on shooting like they did lastnight the remainder of this series, they better play better defense. They still didn't play good defense yesterday (with the exception of the second quarter). They gave up 110 points. While I LOVED that game lastnight because I think we saw what happens when EVERYONE is on, the Mavs can be a scary team but the reality is, they won't be like that everynight. So they better LEARN TO PLAY DEFENSE... >>

i agree with what your saying, but i dont think defense will be a factor in determining who wins this series.

sacto can't stop dallas. and dallas cant stop sacto. both teams pass the ball so well, its hard to get to every guy and put a hand in their face. its almost like trying to plug a leak in a dam with just your finger. you might be successful for a little, but its bound to spring a leak sometime.

couple that with the fact that sacto likes to run and gun with the mavs, and it stands to reason, whoever wins this series will win because they continue to outscore the other team, instead of d'ing them up.

LRB · 05-09-2003, 12:00 PM

<< This I do know, unless the Mavs plan on shooting like they did lastnight the remainder of this series, they better play better defense. They still didn't play good defense yesterday (with the exception of the second quarter). They gave up 110 points. While I LOVED that game lastnight because I think we saw what happens when EVERYONE is on, the Mavs can be a scary team but the reality is, they won't be like that everynight. So they better LEARN TO PLAY DEFENSE... >>

I totally agree. This won't be a defensive struggle by any means, but defense will play a key role in this series. If neither team is on like one has been for the last 2 games, then the one who plays the best D will have the best chance to win. The Mavs don't have to play SA level of D, just play better than they have.