2024 Playoffs Rd 1 Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers

[Melonhead]

I agree Luka is worn down again. I don?t see a reprieve for him either. Got the extra day but not enough for him to regress to the mean of his normal dominating self.

Next season I expect Kyrie to play the same amount of games with 58-60. But at least we?ll have lively and Gafford for a full offseason and season.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

I agree Luka is worn down again. I don?t see a reprieve for him either. Got the extra day but not enough for him to regress to the mean of his normal dominating self.

Next season I expect Kyrie to play the same amount of games with 58-60. But at least we?ll have lively and Gafford for a full offseason and season.

We need a solid 15 ppg g/f like Bogdan on the Hawks. That's the one thing with the decline of THJ that we're missing.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

We need a solid 15 ppg g/f like Bogdan on the Hawks. That's the one thing with the decline of THJ that we're missing.

Between DJJ and PJ we should be able to get 25-28pts consistently. We just dont run enough plays that can get them easy looks. We run PnR at the top and hope those 2 can knock down 3s if the defense collapses.

DJJ has attacked the basket several times and paid off with huge momentum baskets. Those weren't by design though. If we had more motion and off ball movement between djj and PJ it would at the very least put more pressure on defenses. It just seems like the coach views that as clogging spacing up keeping Luka from PNR.

Idk, a lot of things we do seem to contradict. Luka having the ball so much seems like we value posessions by keeping it with Luka, yet he has some silly turnovers at terribly timed moments. Similar for kai on a smaller scale.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Between DJJ and PJ we should be able to get 25-28pts consistently. We just dont run enough plays that can get them easy looks. We run PnR at the top and hope those 2 can knock down 3s if the defense collapses.

DJJ has attacked the basket several times and paid off with huge momentum baskets. Those weren't by design though. If we had more motion and off ball movement between djj and PJ it would at the very least put more pressure on defenses. It just seems like the coach views that as clogging spacing up keeping Luka from PNR.

Idk, a lot of things we do seem to contradict. Luka having the ball so much seems like we value posessions by keeping it with Luka, yet he has some silly turnovers at terribly timed moments. Similar for kai on a smaller scale.

Exum before he got injured was that guy though. He just isn't consistent enough to do it though.

I agree mostly though with what you're saying.

I'm just not super confident this postseason. Team is still too inconsistent on offense. Perhaps that changes...perhaps not.

Wednesday is going to be a bloodbath.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Exum before he got injured was that guy though. He just isn't consistent enough to do it though.

I agree mostly though with what you're saying.

I'm just not super confident this postseason. Team is still too inconsistent on offense. Perhaps that changes...perhaps not.

Wednesday is going to be a bloodbath.

Exum was promising. Now it looks like he cant even dribble the ball with both hands. Very awkward and timid.

Idk what we would have left if we used our miracle to get out of this round.

[Melonhead]

Another thing re Harden?

Most points he?s ever scored in a single quarter in the paint. Entire career. Per Hoop Collective.

Only the Mavs and small ball could make that happen.

I will gladly lose my money for a Mavs win, but gotta bet with my head not my heart.

[blessednegr0]

I am seeing on ESPN that Kawhi is the premier player vs Luka. I believe Kawhi is back for game 5.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by blessednegr0

I am seeing on ESPN that Kawhi is the premier player vs Luka. I believe Kawhi is back for game 5.

2-0 vs Kawhi? 2-0 night games.

[Melonhead]

Makes me wonder if Luka can ever get through a full playoffs to an nba finals. His body is not built for longevity. We already see with a knee injury he?s lost a step in drives and has to settle for shots that aren?t falling.

I?m cautiously optimistic he can find his shot tomorrow.

It?s really unfortunate Exum ghosted because his presence gives them another guy to run the offense with. If they survive Clips maybe he can regain it vs Thunder.

Also?all series in the west are done except ours and there?s still 3 games left

[EricaLubarsky]

2020
2-2 against Clippers and lost series

2021
2-2 against Clippers and lost series

2024
2-2 against Clippers and ???

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Nico came in 4th for executive of the year.

[ShaggyDirk]

As I have said before, imo, until Luka matures he won't and shouldn't be in talks for MVP nor will Dallas win an NBA championship with him. It's time for him to grow up.

On the other hand, I gotta say Kyrie is enough along with this line up and a little luck to win one this year.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by ShaggyDirk

As I have said before, imo, until Luka matures he won't and shouldn't be in talks for MVP nor will Dallas win an NBA championship with him. It's time for him to grow up.

I could agree with this in other years, but I think this sentiment rings hollow now. Define grow up?

[ShaggyDirk]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

I could agree with this in other years, but I think this sentiment rings hollow now. Define grow up?

This response is probably a waste of time but here goes...
In the context of a game. Example - Not as apparent on TV but watching live games (I've been to 6 this year) he's still not able to let things go if it doesn't go his way. He mopes down the court. Ripple effect.. blah blah.

I understand regular season and the grind so probably doesn't affect the outcome of the game that much. In the playoffs, every possession matters. Again, this is my opinion from observation.

I'm not going further but if I did, I would discuss his choices off the court, but I have no facts for this so not going to speculate.

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by ShaggyDirk

This response is probably a waste of time but here goes...
In the context of a game. Example - Not as apparent on TV but watching live games (I've been to 6 this year) he's still not able to let things go if it doesn't go his way. He mopes down the court. Ripple effect.. blah blah.

I understand regular season and the grind so probably doesn't affect the outcome of the game that much. In the playoffs, every possession matters. Again, this is my opinion from observation.

I'm not going further but if I did, I would discuss his choices off the court, but I have no facts for this so not going to speculate.

I went to the suns and mavs game and you are correct watching it up close you see his actions and you say to yourself please Luka for once just get back on defense and let it go

But he's never going to change

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by ShaggyDirk

As I have said before, imo, until Luka matures he won't and shouldn't be in talks for MVP nor will Dallas win an NBA championship with him. It's time for him to grow up.

On the other hand, I gotta say Kyrie is enough along with this line up and a little luck to win one this year.

Leads the league in points, almost averages a triple double for the season, and leads this team to 50 wins. But he shouldn?t be in the MVP conversation?

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by BPo001

Leads the league in points, almost averages a triple double for the season, and leads this team to 50 wins. But he shouldn?t be in the MVP conversation?

Luka without question had a phenomenal year.

But having said that I think jokic is the mvp

Even when you watch these plsyoff games jokic just seems a bit better than everyone else.

Dude is so damn efficient and he very rarely makes mistakes.

I know as mavs fans we all love Luka but I just don't think in terms of efficiency and winning attitude Luka is on jokic level right now.

That's not to say he won't get there one day but right now I'm taking jokic over every other candidate

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Dallas41

LI know as mavs fans we all love Luka but I just don't think in terms of efficiency and winning attitude Luka is on jokic level right now.

"winning attitude" good grief. That just sounds like passive aggressive nonsensical Luka hate.

Nobody wants to win more than Luka.

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

"winning attitude" good grief. That just sounds like passive aggressive nonsensical Luka hate.

Nobody wants to win more than Luka.

Winning attitude means being able to control your emotions in close playoff games and playing through adversity when things don't go your way.

Jokic unlike Luka won't risk getting a tech in crucial game or situation

Jokic will run back on defense with his teammates and not spend the entire possession barking at the refs

That's what I meant by winning attitude

People think I hate Luka which is not true

I just don't agree with his actions most of the time when it comes to the refs. The playoffs are physical and sinetimes you just have to move on to the next Plsy and I think we all can agree that jokic does a far better job of that then Luka.

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by Dallas41

Luka without question had a phenomenal year.

But having said that I think jokic is the mvp

Even when you watch these plsyoff games jokic just seems a bit better than everyone else.

Dude is so damn efficient and he very rarely makes mistakes.

I know as mavs fans we all love Luka but I just don't think in terms of efficiency and winning attitude Luka is on jokic level right now.

That's not to say he won't get there one day but right now I'm taking jokic over every other candidate

an argument can be made for either Luka or Jokic to be MVP. The original comment I replied to, however, said that Luka shouldn?t even be in the MVP conversation which is a ridiculous take. He?s clearly top 2 this year.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Oh and Doncic has a sprained right knee so maybe cut him some slack.

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Oh and Doncic has a sprained right knee so maybe cut him some slack.

A lot players are playing banged up at this time of the year

Embid knee
Lillard Achilles
KP ankle
Murray Calf

Luka just got to fight through it like everyone else right?

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by Dallas41

A lot players are playing banged up at this time of the year

Embid knee
Lillard Achilles
KP ankle
Murray Calf

Luka just got to fight through it like everyone else right?

Lillard is out. KP tried to gut it out, but now he?s out. Everyone?s injuries are different. Embid just took months off too, so he should have fresher legs than Luka.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Dallas41

A lot players are playing banged up at this time of the year

Embid knee
Lillard Achilles
KP ankle
Murray Calf

Luka just got to fight through it like everyone else right?

That's one way to you look at it.

Or maybe no matter what shape we want Luka to be in, maybe it's the long nba season that's the culprit to running down stars.

Giannis, Ingram, Zion, Davis etc. etc. Not really a good look for the NBA to have that many hurt.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by Dallas41

A lot players are playing banged up at this time of the year

Embid knee
Lillard Achilles
KP ankle
Murray Calf

Luka just got to fight through it like everyone else right?

What a strawman. Lillard is out. KP out. Giannis out. Zion out. Jimmy Butler out. Terry Rozier out. Embiid had two months off for his knee.

Why aren?t they quote gutting it out ??? guess they don?t have guts or maybe injuries are different

[Melonhead]

THj tweaked his ankle in practice today. Kidd called it a ?setback? but will be listed as questionable for now.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

THj tweaked his ankle in practice today. Kidd called it a ?setback? but will be listed as questionable for now.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

It's awesome to have a coach that learns and adjusts on the fly...https://twitter.com/KevinGraySports/...59225813643554

[Melonhead]

Hardaway downgraded to OUT for game 5.

Idk was kinda hoping he got 10 minutes to see if he could get a 3 or two to fall

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Hardaway downgraded to OUT for game 5.

Idk was kinda hoping he got 10 minutes to see if he could get a 3 or two to fall

Maybe he gets hot for a qtr or two if he played

But chances are the Clippers would exploit his lack of defense on the floor and then he'd compound the situation by taking bad shots and dribbling off his own leg 😂

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by Dallas41

Maybe he gets hot for a qtr or two if he played

But chances are the Clippers would exploit his lack of defense on the floor and then he'd compound the situation by taking bad shots and dribbling off his own leg 😂

This is most likely what would happen.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

It's amazing we have a whole team outside of Luka/Kyrie that forgot how to score. Exum, Kleber, Green, etc.

Hate to say it, but I'd give Hardy a chance which I know they won't. But nobody else is scoring, and that's the one thing he can do.

Or maybe play Lively more minutes since it's usually high percentage baskets.

[ShaggyDirk]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to EricaLubarsky again.

[blessednegr0]

Kawhi ruled out now. Interesting.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

It is weird how we're stuck in this void of the unknown. Like, I feel like we could lose by 30 or win by 20. Or go into overtime. Legit no idea what to expect.

But we need other guys to step up on offense. That is essential.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

It is weird how we're stuck in this void of the unknown. Like, I feel like we could lose by 30 or win by 20. Or go into overtime. Legit no idea what to expect.

But we need other guys to step up on offense. That is essential.

Idk what to expect either. Hurt Luka is so bad for us. If i had to bet my own money, Id bet that we can't overcome limping Luka 1v1 defense in iso AND the crowd. I saw nothing that makes me confodent that they wont just easily get PG or JH switch to Luka and just hammer it down the stretch

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Idk what to expect either. Hurt Luka is so bad for us. If i had to bet my own money, Id bet that we can't overcome limping Luka 1v1 defense in iso AND the crowd. I saw nothing that makes me confodent that they wont just easily get PG or JH switch to Luka and just hammer it down the stretch

I believe the extra day off will actually help him.

Listening to interview after that game 4 he seemed humbled about not matching the production of Kyrie.

He's do for a breakout game in terms of efficiency. I think he will adjust and shoot less 3's which should help him shoot much better overall.

Would love to more mid post or low post plays by him vs Harden, Coffey or Mann because none of them can slow him him down if he's posting up more

[EricaLubarsky]

HISTORICAL ODDS
Before series in a 4-5 matchup (0-0) - 50% of winning best of 7 (14-14)
After game 1 - (0-1) - 14.6% of winning the series (55-321)
After game 2 - (1-1) - 45% of winning series (212-254)
After game 3 - (2-1) - 73.3% of the time (162-59)
After game 4 - (2-2) - 50% of the time (230-229)

Teams that win Game 5 of a 2-2 best-of-seven series go on to win the series 82.8% of the time (164-34)



LUKA-ERA HISTORY OF GAME 5s
2022 - JAZZ - Mavs went 2-2 - Won game 5 and finished the Jazz in 6
2021 - CLIPPERS - Mavs went 2-2 - Won game 5 and lost games 6/7
2020 - CLIPPERS - Mavs went 2-2 - Lost game 5 and the series in 6

Mavs 1-1 in game fives against the Clippers (but 0-2 in the series)

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

HISTORICAL ODDS
Before series in a 4-5 matchup (0-0) - 50% of winning best of 7 (14-14)
After game 1 - (0-1) - 14.6% of winning the series (55-321)
After game 2 - (1-1) - 45% of winning series (212-254)
After game 3 - (2-1) - 73.3% of the time (162-59)
After game 4 - (2-2) - 50% of the time (230-229)

Teams that win Game 5 of a 2-2 best-of-seven series go on to win the series 82.8% of the time (164-34)



LUKA-ERA HISTORY OF GAME 5s
2022 - JAZZ - Mavs went 2-2 - Won game 5 and finished the Jazz in 6
2021 - CLIPPERS - Mavs went 2-2 - Won game 5 and lost games 6/7
2020 - CLIPPERS - Mavs went 2-2 - Lost game 5 and the series in 6

Mavs 1-1 in game fives against the Clippers (but 0-2 in the series)

Bump. Guys gotta close it out by winning one of the next two

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Well the Cavs/Magic game 5 was decided by 1 point.

My current guess is tonight's game will be similar if not OT.

Love seeing the fight of the Sixers and Bucks. Mavs need that fight tonight...to the end!