i posted this a few weeks ago on another forum
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http://82games.com/pelton18.htm
There's also a really cool comparison to historical NBA teams using offensive and defensive ratings compared to league average to find the 20 most similar to see the % that made the finals and the % that won the championship. Mavs got the highest rating in the West in terms of comparable teams that advanced to the NBA Finals.
1. San Antonio Spurs (63-19)
Off/Def: +1.9 / + 6.8
Most Similar: 1998-99 San Antonio (won Finals)
Finals Appearance: 30%
Championship: 25%
2. Phoenix Suns (54-28)
Off/Def: +6.2 / + 0.5
Most Similar: 1991-92 Cleveland (lost Eastern Conference Finals)
Finals Appearance: 40%
Championship: 10%
4. Dallas Mavericks (60-22)
Off/Def: +5.5 / +1.5
Most Similar: 1986-87 Boston (lost Finals)
Finals Appearance: 45%
Championship: 20%
Their playoff picks were amazingly accurate (made 4/21). Of all the 1st round series in the west, they were off by only one game. That one game btw was the Mavs series.
San Antonio over Sacramento in 6
Phoenix over L.A. Lakers in 7
L.A. Clippers over Denver in 5
Dallas over Memphis in 5
Their predictions for the second round are:
San Antonio over Dallas in 7
Phoenix over L.A. Clippers in 6
We'll see about that!