2018 NBA Draft

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

I've said it before but every time I read about or watch Doncic, I seriously think he would fit this team and RC like a glove and the fact he is without a doubt one of the top 5 players in this draft just really makes him perfect to me. I'm rooting for him being the guy, I'd obviously take any of them but I don't think any of the top 5 guys would fit and have the impact on this team like Doncic. If we somehow won the 1st pick we prolly won't take him over one of the bigs and I'll be happy with any of them like I said but man crush levels is reaching ridiculous proportions with Doncic and the idea that we could have a young do it all guy that could fit with any lineup we throw out there without sacrificing anything like we currently do.

There I go getting my hopes up again... damn you people.

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

^^^ LOL

I just watched about an hour of highlights on Doncic and watched some highlights of player comps. I had heard Doncic is a playmaker, shooter, with incredible court vision. I really didn't see the court vision, not on a spectacular level. He shows flashes. What I did see is an incredible handle and a guy who can get wherever he wants to on the floor. One of the best comps I saw was Brandon Roy. I think the way he moves with the ball on the floor is very similar to Roy.

What worries me about Doncic is he seems to need to have the ball in his hand at all times. He obviously has a green light with his team, like all the time, and he takes some very bad shots. I think it's fair to question whether he & DSJ can co-exist like that, but to be honest, as ball dominant as Doncic is, he's going to have to learn how to play without the ball no matter what team he goes to.

I still really, REALLY like the guy & I'm like you. I kinda hope the Mavs land him, maybe even more than I'm hoping for Ayton. It's kinda 1 & 1A for me. I think his poor shot selection is a symptom of his youth, and if you can fix that & teach him to play a bit more under control, you have the makings of a generational 2 guard on your hands. At times he even reminds me of T-Mac, if T-Mac played below the rim.

I dunno, Doncic is kinda souring on me the more I actually watch him -- I've seen a couple full games now and not just highlights... The Euro competition just looks vastly inferior to what I'm seeing at the college level, and I fear that a lot of this kid's weaknesses are going to be exposed in the NBA. Like, he gets a lot of assists, but his passing lanes are largely unhindered. He's a good ball handler and crafty at getting to the hoop, which mitigates his lack of athleticism, but I'm not seeing a ton of athleticism in his competition either, which makes me wonder if he can still pull it off against NBA players. He's able to use his size to make up for his poor lateral movement on defense, but he isn't really strong enough to get away with that in the NBA... And I do wonder how effective he'll be on offense without having the ball in his hands all the time, especially since he isn't exactly the most efficient shooter -- his game seems to be fairly reliant on volume at the moment.

Not that I think he'll be an outright bust or anything, but I do worry more and more about how his abilities are going to translate to the NBA level, especially if he's next to a ball-dominant guard like DSJ. Sure he's young and has plenty of room for growth, but I'm just not seeing a raw skillset that's going to dominate against superior competition the way I do with Ayton, Bamba, or even Mikal Bridges... Basically, you need to be either extremely athletic or extremely efficient to be a star in the NBA, and Doncic is neither.

[Underdog]

Been thinking lately about how confident I am in certain players -- in their actual abilities vs. the hype, in how well those abilities can translate to the NBA, and if they'll fit in Carlisle's system with Dennis running point... Also, in Porter's case, overall health.

Here's my top rankings if I let my gut outweigh my mind:

DeAndre Ayton
Marvin Bagley
Mohamed Bamba
Mikal Bridges
Luka Doncic
Trae Young
Michael Porter
Jaren Jackson
Miles Bridges
Wendell Carter

[mac222b]

I like Doncic but the issue, aside from perimeter defense, is his inability to get around people with the ball in his hands (except in the pick and roll where he seems amazing). He has a great handle and relies a lot on that to get open looks either mid-range or behind the 3-point line. Passing wise he reminds me of Manu but he hasn't been the crafty finisher Manu is. He isn't as explosive going to the rim. He could learn to be better at selling his ball and head fakes as Manu does before dribbling. More economical in his motion. Bird was also a master of this. Leveraging balance. To make up for a less than stellar first step.

All that being said, he's 18 or 19 and is reputedly a gym rat. He's already strong with a solid frame for a kid his age. Good instinctive rebounder. He's a guy that should add to his game every offseason. Would be really fun to watch him here.

[saclare]

I didn't want to start tiers until further into conference play, but to me, it's becoming more obvious what the top is shaping out to be. To note, I've been high on Bamba and low on Doncic. Trae Young has earned the right to be in the top tier. I was high on Miles Bridges and low on Mikal Bridges, basically flip flopping them from the start of the season. Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to make his case, love his game. Also, Wendell Carter is coming into form and really settling in for Duke. He has a chance to rise up.

Tier One
DeAndre Ayton
Marvin Bagley
Trae Young
Mohamed Bamba

Tier Two
Luka Doncic
Mikal Bridges
Michael Porter

Tier Three
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Miles Bridges
Wendell Carter Jr.
Kevin Knox

[saclare]

Also, guys not to be forgotten due to injury or eligibility reasons (aside from the obvious Porter injury) are Jarred Vanderbilt, Mitchell Robinson, and Billy Preston. Out of those three, Vanderbilt probably would have had the best shot to crack the top 10. He's a great talent and we will see how his season progresses as he made his debut on 1/16.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by saclare

Also, guys not to be forgotten due to injury or eligibility reasons (aside from the obvious Porter injury) are Jarred Vanderbilt, Mitchell Robinson, and Billy Preston. Out of those three, Vanderbilt probably would have had the best shot to crack the top 10. He's a great talent and we will see how his season progresses as he made his debut on 1/16.

If we could somehow swing a non-lottery pick, I'd be all over a couple of those guys,

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by saclare

I didn't want to start tiers until further into conference play, but to me, it's becoming more obvious what the top is shaping out to be. To note, I've been high on Bamba and low on Doncic. Trae Young has earned the right to be in the top tier. I was high on Miles Bridges and low on Mikal Bridges, basically flip flopping them from the start of the season. Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to make his case, love his game. Also, Wendell Carter is coming into form and really settling in for Duke. He has a chance to rise up.

Tier One
DeAndre Ayton
Marvin Bagley
Trae Young
Mohamed Bamba

Tier Two
Luka Doncic
Mikal Bridges
Michael Porter

Tier Three
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Miles Bridges
Wendell Carter Jr.
Kevin Knox

Great stuff! Like your tiering a lot. Pretty close to mine I'd say. Might put Jaren Jackson in his own mini-tier above the other 3

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by saclare

Also, guys not to be forgotten due to injury or eligibility reasons (aside from the obvious Porter injury) are Jarred Vanderbilt, Mitchell Robinson, and Billy Preston. Out of those three, Vanderbilt probably would have had the best shot to crack the top 10. He's a great talent and we will see how his season progresses as he made his debut on 1/16.

Every time Billy Preston is mentioned, the Rhodes electric piano solos from Get Back and Don't Let Me Down get stuck in my head. Thanks Mr. and Mrs. Preston!

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

This is a good thread to put it in -- we're pretty much position-watching and player-assessing here.

Today could be a big day for the standings... Obviously the Mavs play against Houston, but Atlanta, Phoenix, Memphis, and Chicago are also playing.

I looked at the rest of the Mavs schedule this year, and I projected a best case scenario of 28 total team wins. Best case meaning the most wins they could realistically accumulate. For me the best case is they don't win another game this year & finish with 16 wins.

I was looking at last year's standings, and Philadelphia had 28 wins, which gave them the 4th worst record in the league. I do worry that more teams will be in that low to mid 20s win total this year, but it made me feel a bit better about the Mavs slipping out of the top 5. They could easily not see 25 wins this year, and I don't see any way they win 30 games.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I dunno, Doncic is kinda souring on me the more I actually watch him -- I've seen a couple full games now and not just highlights... The Euro competition just looks vastly inferior to what I'm seeing at the college level, and I fear that a lot of this kid's weaknesses are going to be exposed in the NBA. Like, he gets a lot of assists, but his passing lanes are largely unhindered. He's a good ball handler and crafty at getting to the hoop, which mitigates his lack of athleticism, but I'm not seeing a ton of athleticism in his competition either, which makes me wonder if he can still pull it off against NBA players. He's able to use his size to make up for his poor lateral movement on defense, but he isn't really strong enough to get away with that in the NBA... And I do wonder how effective he'll be on offense without having the ball in his hands all the time, especially since he isn't exactly the most efficient shooter -- his game seems to be fairly reliant on volume at the moment.

Not that I think he'll be an outright bust or anything, but I do worry more and more about how his abilities are going to translate to the NBA level, especially if he's next to a ball-dominant guard like DSJ. Sure he's young and has plenty of room for growth, but I'm just not seeing a raw skillset that's going to dominate against superior competition the way I do with Ayton, Bamba, or even Mikal Bridges... Basically, you need to be either extremely athletic or extremely efficient to be a star in the NBA, and Doncic is neither.

Solid point about passing lanes being largely unhindered. I didn't see Doncic as an elite passer in most of the highlights I watched. I did watch one highlight reel of his, from when he was younger actually where he made some very elite-level passes. But, again I think he's more of a SG than a sees the court PG.

I have to disagree about the level of his competition. Here's who he faced in just the Eurobasket tournament this fall: Lauri Markkanen, Nick Calathes, Omri Casspi, Gal Mekel, Boris Diaw, Evan Fournier, Joffrey Lauvergne, Kevin Seraphin, Nando De Colo, Kristaps Porzingis, Davis Bertans, Sergio Rodriguez, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Ricky Rubio, Willy Hernangomez, Juancho Hernangomez, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. 18 current or former NBA players. He scored on Porzingis 3 times, including a very nice move in the lane to create space. I mean, Trae Young isn't having to try & score over 7-3 oppponents. I see Doncic's competition as a major plus for scouting him. I'm not worried about him being able to get by NBA defenders. His handle is just that good, imo, and he really displays excellent 1 on 1 skills. Plus, he has that pull up, quick release, if he does have a bit of trouble getting by defenders. I think as his jump shot becomes more consistent, it'll only further to aide him getting by NBA defenders, in a similar fashion to how it helps Steph.

I do share your concern on how effective he's going to be without having the ball in his hands all the time. To me that's a big concern. It's almost like no coach has ever had him share the ball before. I really wonder how that would work. I wouldn't want DSJ to play 2nd fiddle to Doncic in terms of handling the ball, and the way Doncic needs the ball in his hands so much & really isn't an elite passer, from what I can tell, I think that would definitely impact Harrison Barnes' production. Will Barnes be okay with that? I don't know. Not even sure I have that diagnosed properly, but it's definitely a situation that would have to be worked out & I don't know, nor would the Mavs or any other NBA team, how Doncic would respond to making that adjustment in his game.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Great stuff! Like your tiering a lot. Pretty close to mine I'd say. Might put Jaren Jackson in his own mini-tier above the other 3

I almost put him in tier two altogether, and would have added Collin Sexton to the 3rd tier to make it an even 4/tier and 12 total top prospects.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I dunno, Doncic is kinda souring on me the more I actually watch him -- I've seen a couple full games now and not just highlights... The Euro competition just looks vastly inferior to what I'm seeing at the college level, and I fear that a lot of this kid's weaknesses are going to be exposed in the NBA. Like, he gets a lot of assists, but his passing lanes are largely unhindered. He's a good ball handler and crafty at getting to the hoop, which mitigates his lack of athleticism, but I'm not seeing a ton of athleticism in his competition either, which makes me wonder if he can still pull it off against NBA players. He's able to use his size to make up for his poor lateral movement on defense, but he isn't really strong enough to get away with that in the NBA... And I do wonder how effective he'll be on offense without having the ball in his hands all the time, especially since he isn't exactly the most efficient shooter -- his game seems to be fairly reliant on volume at the moment.

Not that I think he'll be an outright bust or anything, but I do worry more and more about how his abilities are going to translate to the NBA level, especially if he's next to a ball-dominant guard like DSJ. Sure he's young and has plenty of room for growth, but I'm just not seeing a raw skillset that's going to dominate against superior competition the way I do with Ayton, Bamba, or even Mikal Bridges... Basically, you need to be either extremely athletic or extremely efficient to be a star in the NBA, and Doncic is neither.

Doncic scares me too. I easily take Ayton, Bamba, and Bagley over him. I take Porter Jr. over him if the back checks out. I take Mikal Bridges over him if he performs well in draft workouts.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I have to disagree about the level of his competition.

I dunno, I see Doncic playing against some pretty lousy competition once you get past the top-tier players, especially the guys actually trying to defend him... It seems like there are more specialists in the NCAA, players who are great at one thing and lousy at others, whereas Euroleague has a lot more guys who are decent at everything, but great at nothing (which is probably why they're not in the NBA). I see more zone defense being implemented in Euroleague, largely because there doesn't seem to be an abundance of excellent man defenders -- whereas there are several guys in college who do nothing but specialize in defense (and most teams have a couple).

Maybe I just caught bad games against weaker competition, but it looks like Doncic is somewhat benefiting offensively from a lack of strong defenders. I don't see too many guys chasing him around on the perimeter, nor do I see any superior rim protectors. I just don't think he's going to be able to carve up an NBA defense the same way he has with Euroleague, not without superior athleticism... So he's really going to have to get more efficient with that shot if he wants to be find the same level of success in this league.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I looked at the rest of the Mavs schedule this year, and I projected a best case scenario of 28 total team wins. Best case meaning the most wins they could realistically accumulate. For me the best case is they don't win another game this year & finish with 16 wins.

I was looking at last year's standings, and Philadelphia had 28 wins, which gave them the 4th worst record in the league. I do worry that more teams will be in that low to mid 20s win total this year, but it made me feel a bit better about the Mavs slipping out of the top 5. They could easily not see 25 wins this year, and I don't see any way they win 30 games.

I don't see anyway for them to finish top-3. I think we're looking at most likely 4-8. Probably 6 or 7

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I dunno, I see Doncic playing against some pretty lousy competition once you get past the top-tier players, especially the guys actually trying to defend him... It seems like there are more specialists in the NCAA, players who are great at one thing and lousy at others, whereas Euroleague has a lot more guys who are decent at everything, but great at nothing (which is probably why they're not in the NBA). I see more zone defense being implemented in Euroleague, largely because there doesn't seem to be an abundance of excellent man defenders -- whereas there are several guys in college who do nothing but specialize in defense (and most teams have a couple).

Maybe I just caught bad games against weaker competition, but it looks like Doncic is somewhat benefiting offensively from a lack of strong defenders. I don't see too many guys chasing him around on the perimeter, nor do I see any superior rim protectors. I just don't think he's going to be able to carve up an NBA defense the same way he has with Euroleague, not without superior athleticism... So he's really going to have to get more efficient with that shot if he wants to be find the same level of success in this league.

Those are legitimate concerns for Doncic's competition. I think it's more fair to question his style of competition than the level of competition. As you say the Euroleague seems to deploy more zone defense than NBA or NCAA basketball does. I do agree you don't see very many highlights of Doncic where he's going against an agile, lanky defender who's shadowing him on man coverage i.e. a Tayshaun Prince type. He's usually going against a defender who's a bit shorter than he is and not much more athletic, if any, than Doncic. He does face his fair share of double teams tho.

The reverse side to this argument is college players get to pad their stats against guys who 5 years from now will be working at home depot & not even talented enough to get a tryout with a Mexican C league team post college. Doncic doesn't pad his stats vs any creampuffs like that. Although, his stats aren't that impressive, just yet. One thing that is impressive is the moves he put on Porzingis. 27 pts vs Lativa in the Eurobasket tournament. 12 pts in the 4th qtr of a close game where Lativa put Porzingis on him several times on switches on the pick n roll. Doncic scored on Porzingis 3 times including a nifty post move and a tough step back 3. I don't think those skills disappear in the NBA. Plus, this guy has legit one of the best handles of any 6-7/6-8 18 year old in history. His dribbling will be his saving grace imo.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by mac222b

I don't see anyway for them to finish top-3. I think we're looking at most likely 4-8. Probably 6 or 7

Yeah this is a big enigma really. Like, I just heard on the radio that last time the Mavs played the Rockets there was no CP3. So when you look at the upcoming schedule & see a team like HOU you put it down as a loss, but if say both CP3 & Harden are out, then what.

I got to my 28 by basically saying the Mavs lose the next 3, and then gave them wins every time they faced a team like SAC, ORL, PHX & gave them a 2 or 3 surprise wins vs teams like IND or LAC. I never had them beating a top team, which likely they'll pull off 1 or 2 wins like that too, but also they'll likely give up more than a few games to teams like SAC & PHX; at least let's hope so.

SAC seems like they're clearly in tank mode. ORL might actually improve once they get Vucevic back & a guy like Payton is playing for his NBA future, so I have hopes they can post a better record than the Mavs. ATL is a real threat to finish worse than the Mavs; they just don't have the talent to put up very many wins. A team like Charlotte could be trouble if they deal Walker and/or more pieces.

On the brightside, LAL & BKN have no reason to try & tank, so the Mavs should be able to finish with a worse record than those two.

PHX & CHI are concerns, but I would have to say they're both more talented than the Mavs are and the Mavs currently have a 1.5 and 2.5 game lead on them both for worst record. Memphis is a concern too, but they'll get Conley Jr back at some point, probably post ASG, and they've had a tough schedule so far, so more winnable games are coming for them.

Honestly, outside of SAC and ATL, there's no team that I think the Mavs don't have at least as good a chance of finishing with a worst record than. Maybe ORL is in that mix too.

We've also said this draft looks to be 8 players deep. Just can't see the Mavs finishing with a record good enough to put them out of that top 8 category. They're just not very good. I really think they're in line for a top 3 pick, if they're smart & start tanking some of these games when they play a SAC or PHX etc. The good news is those times when SAC & PHX play each other, somebody has to take the W. Even better news would be like if Harrison Barnes pulls a hamstring or Wes Matthews is traded etc. Would love to see something like that happen. Because this draft might be 8 players deep, but we really want that top 3 pick.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Yeah this is a big enigma really. Like, I just heard on the radio that last time the Mavs played the Rockets there was no CP3. So when you look at the upcoming schedule & see a team like HOU you put it down as a loss, but if say both CP3 & Harden are out, then what.

I got to my 28 by basically saying the Mavs lose the next 3, and then gave them wins every time they faced a team like SAC, ORL, PHX & gave them a 2 or 3 surprise wins vs teams like IND or LAC. I never had them beating a top team, which likely they'll pull off 1 or 2 wins like that too, but also they'll likely give up more than a few games to teams like SAC & PHX; at least let's hope so.

SAC seems like they're clearly in tank mode. ORL might actually improve once they get Vucevic back & a guy like Payton is playing for his NBA future, so I have hopes they can post a better record than the Mavs. ATL is a real threat to finish worse than the Mavs; they just don't have the talent to put up very many wins. A team like Charlotte could be trouble if they deal Walker and/or more pieces.

On the brightside, LAL & BKN have no reason to try & tank, so the Mavs should be able to finish with a worse record than those two.

PHX & CHI are concerns, but I would have to say they're both more talented than the Mavs are and the Mavs currently have a 1.5 and 2.5 game lead on them both for worst record. Memphis is a concern too, but they'll get Conley Jr back at some point, probably post ASG, and they've had a tough schedule so far, so more winnable games are coming for them.

Honestly, outside of SAC and ATL, there's no team that I think the Mavs don't have at least as good a chance of finishing with a worst record than. Maybe ORL is in that mix too.

We've also said this draft looks to be 8 players deep. Just can't see the Mavs finishing with a record good enough to put them out of that top 8 category. They're just not very good. I really think they're in line for a top 3 pick, if they're smart & start tanking some of these games when they play a SAC or PHX etc. The good news is those times when SAC & PHX play each other, somebody has to take the W. Even better news would be like if Harrison Barnes pulls a hamstring or Wes Matthews is traded etc. Would love to see something like that happen. Because this draft might be 8 players deep, but we really want that top 3 pick.

I have said before that they should sit their vets occasionally for rest. It wouldn't even have to be a tank. But just a legit rest day on a back to back. we have two back-to-backs coming up in the next few weeks if I remember right. Sit them against Denver after Portland the night before. Sit them against the Jazz after the Lakers or, even better, vice versa.

It may be awhile before Vucevic is back. And who knows whats up with Conley.

[Bryan_Wilson]

I think he(Doncic) will have no issues off the ball. I don't think he sees himself as a NBA pg, I'd be shocked if he did. It's not like he'd be off the ball all the time as well. We see several times a game an offensive set called and it amounts to nothing and the ball has to come out and reset with one of the pg's. And Usually DSJ or JJ have to turn chicken shit into chicken salad at the end of the shot clock. I think Doncic can be an option there. When DSJ is off the floor he can take it then, when he has a mismatch he can take it there as well. We can give him occasional pnr plays with dsj on the floor because he's fantastic in that as well. And DSJ looks fine off the ball as well really. I really liked how DSJ attacked the closeout the other night.

The only worry with him would be he isn't super athletic. But his bbiq looks waaaaaaay ahead of where an 18yr old should be. That makes up for a dip in athleticism to me personally, especially considering our coach and the way we run our offense. He's averaging 16/5.5/4.5 in less than 25 mins a game in the 2nd hardest bball league in the world(23/8/7 per 36). And he makes it look pretty damn easy as well. Also he screams positive +-, RC is prolly already in love with him as well.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Those are legitimate concerns for Doncic's competition. I think it's more fair to question his style of competition than the level of competition. As you say the Euroleague seems to deploy more zone defense than NBA or NCAA basketball does. I do agree you don't see very many highlights of Doncic where he's going against an agile, lanky defender who's shadowing him on man coverage i.e. a Tayshaun Prince type. He's usually going against a defender who's a bit shorter than he is and not much more athletic, if any, than Doncic. He does face his fair share of double teams tho.

The reverse side to this argument is college players get to pad their stats against guys who 5 years from now will be working at home depot & not even talented enough to get a tryout with a Mexican C league team post college. Doncic doesn't pad his stats vs any creampuffs like that. Although, his stats aren't that impressive, just yet. One thing that is impressive is the moves he put on Porzingis. 27 pts vs Lativa in the Eurobasket tournament. 12 pts in the 4th qtr of a close game where Lativa put Porzingis on him several times on switches on the pick n roll. Doncic scored on Porzingis 3 times including a nifty post move and a tough step back 3. I don't think those skills disappear in the NBA. Plus, this guy has legit one of the best handles of any 6-7/6-8 18 year old in history. His dribbling will be his saving grace imo.

You bring up some fair points (especially style of competition vs. level of competition), but I'm going more with the eye test than with stats. Sure, he's dominating Euroleague, but he isn't doing it with the same physicality as Sexton or the same efficiency as Young.

Or to put it another way, I think his limited athleticism coupled with his inefficiency could hurt him more than, say, Bamba's limited offense... Even if he never develops a full array of offensive moves, Bamba can fall back on his freakish wingspan to pull down boards and swat shots. I'm not sure that Doncic has much to fall back on if he doesn't get his efficiency worked out. Sure, he's smart and has plenty of time to figure it out at his age, but what if he doesn't? I don't think he's going to be another Ricky Rubio, but with his lack of athleticism it may keep him from ever becoming something special in this league.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

You bring up some fair points (especially style of competition vs. level of competition), but I'm going more with the eye test than with stats. Sure, he's dominating Euroleague, but he isn't doing it with the same physicality as Sexton or the same efficiency as Young.

Or to put it another way, I think his limited athleticism coupled with his inefficiency could hurt him more than, say, Bamba's limited offense... Even if he never develops a full array of offensive moves, Bamba can fall back on his freakish wingspan to pull down boards and swat shots. I'm not sure that Doncic has much to fall back on if he doesn't get his efficiency worked out. Sure, he's smart and has plenty of time to figure it out at his age, but what if he doesn't? I don't think he's going to be another Ricky Rubio, but it may keep him from ever becoming something special in this league.

Here's a video I saw breaking down Doncic's strengths & weaknesses that I really liked. It was posted back in July, so not the most up-to-date, but it features an interview with a guy who was formerly the Pacers international chief of scouting. The player comps are pretty bad, imo. Although, the Chandler Parsons comp has some truth to it. I still like a Brandon Roy comp the most. This guy in the video says he's a legit PG, and this is the second video highlight I've seen where Doncic displays some elite level passing. Again this was back in July, I wonder if he's changed his mindset this season for some reason? I still see Doncic as more of a SG based on the more current videos I've seen of him.

Anyways, some strong analysis in this video. Give it a look & tell me what you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu_Ejkd8N8E

[EricaLubarsky]

What I like about Doncic is that he can shoot and he can legitimately not just make a pass but run a play. For someone that young he seems to understand the game. That’s rare.

What scares the heck out of me is his speed. He looks like Adam Morrison out there and his release is slow as tar. He’s going to find it hard to not only defend, but to make plays and shoot. I could be very wrong but a few scouts have raised the concerns and the eye test seems to support it.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Here's a video I saw breaking down Doncic's strengths & weaknesses that I really liked. It was posted back in July, so not the most up-to-date, but it features an interview with a guy who was formerly the Pacers international chief of scouting. The player comps are pretty bad, imo. Although, the Chandler Parsons comp has some truth to it. I still like a Brandon Roy comp the most. This guy in the video says he's a legit PG, and this is the second video highlight I've seen where Doncic displays some elite level passing. Again this was back in July, I wonder if he's changed his mindset this season for some reason? I still see Doncic as more of a SG based on the more current videos I've seen of him.

Anyways, some strong analysis in this video. Give it a look & tell me what you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu_Ejkd8N8E

I remember seeing that. The first article I read that had me changing my mind on Doncic was- https://www.theringer.com/2017/7/20/...d-f534e7428bf6
I also rly like most everything by theringer.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Here's a video I saw breaking down Doncic's strengths & weaknesses that I really liked. It was posted back in July, so not the most up-to-date, but it features an interview with a guy who was formerly the Pacers international chief of scouting. The player comps are pretty bad, imo. Although, the Chandler Parsons comp has some truth to it. I still like a Brandon Roy comp the most. This guy in the video says he's a legit PG, and this is the second video highlight I've seen where Doncic displays some elite level passing. Again this was back in July, I wonder if he's changed his mindset this season for some reason? I still see Doncic as more of a SG based on the more current videos I've seen of him.

Anyways, some strong analysis in this video. Give it a look & tell me what you think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu_Ejkd8N8E

He's soooo slooooow... Can he even be effective on the break with DSJ? It's almost like having another Dirk out there, lumbering his way to the arc for a catch & shoot. I want my wings to be quick, give Dennis a 2-on-1 option streaking to the hoop on fast breaks... He's not quick enough to defend guards either -- almost need him to be a ball-handling SF like Chandler Parsons (who is actually not a horrible comparison).

I dunno, I think he'll be a good player, I just like other guys more... Like, I'm getting to a point where I'd actually prefer Mikal Bridges out there with Dennis Smith Jr, but that's more on Bridges than on Doncic.

[Bryan_Wilson]

He doesn't seem any less athletic than Hayward looked at Butler when I looked his highlights up tbh.



Join us UD.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

He doesn't seem any less athletic than Hayward looked at Butler when I looked his highlights up tbh.



Join us UD.

Have I ever mentioned that I think Hayward is massively overrated?

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Have I ever mentioned that I think Hayward is massively overrated?

I think he's overrated too, but I don't think he would be better if he was faster and could jump higher.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

I think he's overrated too, but I don't think he would be better if he was faster and could jump higher.

I think Luka Doncic would be better if he was DeAndre Ayton.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I think Luka Doncic would be better if he was DeAndre Ayton.

I concur. Doncic needs to be Ayton if he's going to get anywhere in the NBA.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by tap2390

I concur. Doncic needs to be Ayton if he's going to get anywhere in the NBA.

FINALLY someone understands where I'm coming from!

[Bryan_Wilson]

Amsosad. Tap and I agree on everything except how good Doncic is and how terrible Marcus Smart is.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

I just read something on a fan forum, with several posters (maybe 4-5), saying that Arizona's coach Sean Miller has no clue how to use Ayton & is really stunting his development/not showcasing his full abilities.

Anyone have an opinion on this?

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I just read something on a fan forum, with several posters (maybe 4-5), saying that Arizona's coach Sean Miller has no clue how to use Ayton & is really stunting his development/not showcasing his full abilities.

Anyone have an opinion on this?

If that's true he's even more of a top choice for the #1 pick.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Back to the Tank Watch...

There's really only 9 other teams the Mavs are realistically competing with at this point for the worst record in the league. With the Mavs loss tonight & Utah's win, the Mavs now have a 4 game edge on Utah. I don't see Utah making up that ground. Plus, they're only 4.5 games out of the 8 seed. That's enough for the FO to hold on & keep the Jazz pushing for Ws, at least for several more weeks.

That leaves Charlotte, LA Lakers, Chicago, Brooklyn Nets, Memphis, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, and Sacramento in competition with the Mavs.

Charlotte - The Mavs currently have a 4 game lead on the Hornets for the worst record. Charlotte has currently had the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule so far. A much easier, more winnable schedule is ahead. Granted the Mavs have had the 2nd most difficult SOS. Charlotte is more more talented than the Mavs. The only concern here is Kemba, Batum and/or others are traded & Charlotte has trouble taking advantage of their easier schedule. That said, they already have 19 wins & I'm not sure the Mavs see more than 25-27 wins this season. I look at the Hornets as a long shot to finish ahead of the Mavs for worst record.

LA Lakers - Mavs are currently up on them 2.5 games for worst record. The Lakers clearly aren't trying to tank. They just pulled out a W last night vs the Celtics. Which makes sense because they have zero incentive to tank. Their 2018 1st round draft pick will either belong to Boston or Philadelphia. Not to mention, Luke Walton is taking some heat, there's pressure on Lonzo Ball to perform. The Lakers players have to feel pressure to perform to stay on the roster for next year with expected FAs joining the team. They're a team that's going to play their hearts out & not try to tank. They're also tied for the 7th most difficult SOS, so more winnable games are coming.

Chicago - Mavs currently are up 2 games on the Bulls for the worst record. Chicago is more talented imo. They have a legitimate experienced center in Lopez. They're talented and deep at PF with Markkanen, Mirotic, and Portis. They're weak at SF, but they also just got Zach LaVine back & they'll get Cameron Payne in a few weeks. Payne isn't a remarkable talent, but he's a 23 yr old prospect with some skills that'll be out there competing for his next contract. The type of guy that even if the FO gave him more minutes in an effort to tank, he could still sneak out a few Ws they'd prefer they didn't. Plus, the Bulls have had the 6th most difficult SOS so far this season, more winnable games are on the way. I honestly would have the Mavs favored significantly to finish with a worst record than the Bulls. Probably would call them 2-1 or maybe even 3-1 favorites.

Brooklyn Nets - The Mavs are currently up 2 games on the Nets for worst record. The Nets 1st round pick this year belongs to Cleveland, so they have zero incentive to tank. The biggest problem with the Nets is they're not very talented & they may be a case of a team that tanks without setting out to. The good news is they've gotten DeAngelo Russell back 3 games ago. So far this year the Nets are 7-9 with Russell and 11-21 without Russell. That's an incomplete comparison because I don't know the SOS differences between the two timetables. Also, if Russell equated to that big a difference in wins, he'd be laughably more valuable than LeBron & we know that's not true. Still, Russell was averaging 21.1 ppg before he went down and doing so while shooting well below career averages from 3 & from the line (his FG% is up but not unreasonably so). Definitely helps to add a 21.1 ppg scorer back to the starting lineup. The Nets are middle of the pack in SOS this year. I legitimately worry about them sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record if they have more injuries, go cold, or the Mavs get hot. On the brightside, they're getting Toronto's 1st round pick this year, so they don't have to panic & trade off a piece just for a draft pick; and on the other hand, they really don't have any impact players to trade away that we would need to worry about.

Memphis - The Mavs are up 1.5 games on the Grizz for worst record. Grizzlies have had the 4th most difficult SOS this season. More winnable games on the horizon. At some point, probably post ASG break, they'll get Conley Jr back in the fold. Normally, I'd be inclined to say Conley Jr coming back might not matter. I feel like Memphis (outside of signing Chandler Parsons to that ridiculous contract) is a savvy organization and totally capable of inventing another injury for Conley Jr if they decide to go in full tank mode. However, they just fired their head coach David Fizdale, with some reports saying it was at Marc Gasol's request. They only have Gasol for one more season beyond this one before he can opt out. I feel like the FO is going to be much more inclined to try and string some Wins together to keep Gasol happy. That may be wishful thinking, but still I don't know how well it would sit with Gasol if he knows the FO is keeping Conley Jr out of the lineup in order to tank (and what he might interrupt as rebuild... especially if they draft a big man). If they do just put Conley Jr back in the rotation facing an easier 2nd half schedule, then Memphis should be able to finish with a better record than the Mavs. Would help if the Mavs can be smart enough to dump their March 10th matchup w/ Memphis.

Phoenix - Mavs are up 1 game on the Suns for worst record. Phoenix is tied for the 18th most difficult SOS, so some slightly tougher games are in their future. Just the fact they have Devin Booker makes them more talented than the Mavs imo. Booker & TJ Warren coupled with a mix of Chandler, Monroe, Len & Chriss as your Bigs. I'd say Phoenix has a slight talent edge (at the moment). Phoenix is definitely a team that could and should trade some pieces away. Heard Monroe is rumored to be dealt at the deadline. They're also void of a playmaking PG. I could easily see the Suns sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record. Hopefully the Mavs are smart and drop their remaining 2 games to Phoenix. Need to be rooting for a loss to the Suns next Wednesday in Phoenix. That would be a huge game to give away. Then we host the Suns the final game of the season, which if we need to lose to stay ahead of them for the worst record, you'd hope we have the good common sense to lose.

Orlando - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Magic for the worst record. ORL has had the 11th most difficult SOS this season, so some slightly more winnable games are on their horizon. Now, we're entering the phase of teams the Mavs are underdogs to finish ahead of for worst record. There's not a ton to hold onto here, but the Magic should get Vucevic back post ASG break. That can't hurt. Gordon is having a breakout year, so hopefully he just continues to improve. Payton is fighting for his NBA life at this point, so you would hope that would push him to play better (altho I'm not sure he can do much better than 52.4 FG%). I think the fact the Magic didn't dump Fournier is an encouraging sign that they're not totally going into tank mode. I give the Mavs at least a reasonable shot of sneaking ahead of the Magic for worst record. Would be really sweet to drop the April 4th matchup vs the Magic in Orlando. It's the least we could do since we beat them earlier in the year. Smh... Hopefully by April the Mavs are in full on tank mode & wise enough to dump this game to the Magic.

Atlanta - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Hawks for the worst record. ATL is tied for the 4th softest SOS so far this season, so tougher games are on the way for the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the few teams in the league that I can safely say the Mavs are more talented than. It was really nice to drop both games to the Hawks this year given that fact. Honestly, I really think the Mavs would need some luck to finish ahead of the Hawks for worst record. They'd need a Harrison Barnes injury and the Hawks staying healthy, getting hot etc. Otherwise, we're gonna need to win the lottery to finish ahead of the Hawks in the 2018 draft order.

Sacramento - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Kings for the worst record. Here comes the leader in the clubhouse for the #1 overall pick. The Kings are already benching veterans. Taking turns sitting Vince Carter, George Hill, Zach Randolph etc. Their head coach Dave Joerger has already been quoted talking about the vets being professionals about it. Not to mention it's looking very likely they'll deal away George Hill and others at the deadline. They're tied for the 10th softest SOS this season, so tougher games are on the horizon. The only hope the Mavs have to finish ahead of the Kings is to either A) Win the lottery and/or B) get smart, start tanking games themselves right now (we do have 3 more games with SAC this yr, including 2 games before the ASB. I'll be down on my hands & knees praying for losses those nights). Plus, hope the Kings can back into a few Ws like they did Tues vs Orlando (and hopefully 3 more times vs us!). Short of that, I can't see any way the Mavs are picking ahead of the Kings come June.

Recap: In particular, every Orlando, Phoenix, and Brooklyn win right now is huge for the Mavs. To a lesser extent, Memphis & Chicago wins too. Obviously, we're not hating a trade to get a piece like Barea or Wes Matthews out of here. Heard a radio interview with DSJ saying that Matthews has been his most helpful mentor this season, so I think Matthews is probably here for the foreseeable future. Just seems like the organization really likes him. Carlisle loves Barea that's well known. We gotta root for non-career threatening injuries. Any of those are more than welcome.

Here's a realistic projection of the worst record "race"

1) Sacramento
2) Atlanta
3) Orlando
4) Phoenix
5) Dallas
6) Chicago
7) Cleveland (via Brooklyn)
8) Charlotte
9) Memphis
10) Philadelphia (via LA Lakers)


Could also see the Mavs sneaking into the 3rd spot, but making a conservative projection. Just don't see them finishing any worse than 6th. So, I would put their realistic range between 3rd & 6th. Would be sweet to hit that Lotto! One time baby!!

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I just read something on a fan forum, with several posters (maybe 4-5), saying that Arizona's coach Sean Miller has no clue how to use Ayton & is really stunting his development/not showcasing his full abilities.

Anyone have an opinion on this?

I dunno, aside from Ayton and Trier, Arizona doesn't have much going for them... Miller's primary job is to win games, not to prepare his players for the NBA -- if he didn't have to depend on Ayton to do absolutely everything, then he might actually be able to focus more attention in certain areas. Unfortunately they don't have that luxury.

And if this is "stunted" Ayton, then he's primed to be an All-Time great if he can get himself "right."

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Back to the Tank Watch...

There's really only 9 other teams the Mavs are realistically competing with at this point for the worst record in the league. With the Mavs loss tonight & Utah's win, the Mavs now have a 4 game edge on Utah. I don't see Utah making up that ground. Plus, they're only 4.5 games out of the 8 seed. That's enough for the FO to hold on & keep the Jazz pushing for Ws, at least for several more weeks.

That leaves Charlotte, LA Lakers, Chicago, Brooklyn Nets, Memphis, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, and Sacramento in competition with the Mavs.

Charlotte - The Mavs currently have a 4 game lead on the Hornets for the worst record. Charlotte has currently had the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule so far. A much easier, more winnable schedule is ahead. Granted the Mavs have had the 2nd most difficult SOS. Charlotte is more more talented than the Mavs. The only concern here is Kemba, Batum and/or others are traded & Charlotte has trouble taking advantage of their easier schedule. That said, they already have 19 wins & I'm not sure the Mavs see more than 25-27 wins this season. I look at the Hornets as a long shot to finish ahead of the Mavs for worst record.

LA Lakers - Mavs are currently up on them 2.5 games for worst record. The Lakers clearly aren't trying to tank. They just pulled out a W last night vs the Celtics. Which makes sense because they have zero incentive to tank. Their 2018 1st round draft pick will either belong to Boston or Philadelphia. Not to mention, Luke Walton is taking some heat, there's pressure on Lonzo Ball to perform. The Lakers players have to feel pressure to perform to stay on the roster for next year with expected FAs joining the team. They're a team that's going to play their hearts out & not try to tank. They're also tied for the 7th most difficult SOS, so more winnable games are coming.

Chicago - Mavs currently are up 2 games on the Bulls for the worst record. Chicago is more talented imo. They have a legitimate experienced center in Lopez. They're talented and deep at PF with Markkanen, Mirotic, and Portis. They're weak at SF, but they also just got Zach LaVine back & they'll get Cameron Payne in a few weeks. Payne isn't a remarkable talent, but he's a 23 yr old prospect with some skills that'll be out there competing for his next contract. The type of guy that even if the FO gave him more minutes in an effort to tank, he could still sneak out a few Ws they'd prefer they didn't. Plus, the Bulls have had the 6th most difficult SOS so far this season, more winnable games are on the way. I honestly would have the Mavs favored significantly to finish with a worst record than the Bulls. Probably would call them 2-1 or maybe even 3-1 favorites.

Brooklyn Nets - The Mavs are currently up 2 games on the Nets for worst record. The Nets 1st round pick this year belongs to Cleveland, so they have zero incentive to tank. The biggest problem with the Nets is they're not very talented & they may be a case of a team that tanks without setting out to. The good news is they've gotten DeAngelo Russell back 3 games ago. So far this year the Nets are 7-9 with Russell and 11-21 without Russell. That's an incomplete comparison because I don't know the SOS differences between the two timetables. Also, if Russell equated to that big a difference in wins, he'd be laughably more valuable than LeBron & we know that's not true. Still, Russell was averaging 21.1 ppg before he went down and doing so while shooting well below career averages from 3 & from the line (his FG% is up but not unreasonably so). Definitely helps to add a 21.1 ppg scorer back to the starting lineup. The Nets are middle of the pack in SOS this year. I legitimately worry about them sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record if they have more injuries, go cold, or the Mavs get hot. On the brightside, they're getting Toronto's 1st round pick this year, so they don't have to panic & trade off a piece just for a draft pick; and on the other hand, they really don't have any impact players to trade away that we would need to worry about.

Memphis - The Mavs are up 1.5 games on the Grizz for worst record. Grizzlies have had the 4th most difficult SOS this season. More winnable games on the horizon. At some point, probably post ASG break, they'll get Conley Jr back in the fold. Normally, I'd be inclined to say Conley Jr coming back might not matter. I feel like Memphis (outside of signing Chandler Parsons to that ridiculous contract) is a savvy organization and totally capable of inventing another injury for Conley Jr if they decide to go in full tank mode. However, they just fired their head coach David Fizdale, with some reports saying it was at Marc Gasol's request. They only have Gasol for one more season beyond this one before he can opt out. I feel like the FO is going to be much more inclined to try and string some Wins together to keep Gasol happy. That may be wishful thinking, but still I don't know how well it would sit with Gasol if he knows the FO is keeping Conley Jr out of the lineup in order to tank (and what he might interrupt as rebuild... especially if they draft a big man). If they do just put Conley Jr back in the rotation facing an easier 2nd half schedule, then Memphis should be able to finish with a better record than the Mavs. Would help if the Mavs can be smart enough to dump their March 10th matchup w/ Memphis.

Phoenix - Mavs are up 1 game on the Suns for worst record. Phoenix is tied for the 18th most difficult SOS, so some slightly tougher games are in their future. Just the fact they have Devin Booker makes them more talented than the Mavs imo. Booker & TJ Warren coupled with a mix of Chandler, Monroe, Len & Chriss as your Bigs. I'd say Phoenix has a slight talent edge (at the moment). Phoenix is definitely a team that could and should trade some pieces away. Heard Monroe is rumored to be dealt at the deadline. They're also void of a playmaking PG. I could easily see the Suns sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record. Hopefully the Mavs are smart and drop their remaining 2 games to Phoenix. Need to be rooting for a loss to the Suns next Wednesday in Phoenix. That would be a huge game to give away. Then we host the Suns the final game of the season, which if we need to lose to stay ahead of them for the worst record, you'd hope we have the good common sense to lose.

Orlando - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Magic for the worst record. ORL has had the 11th most difficult SOS this season, so some slightly more winnable games are on their horizon. Now, we're entering the phase of teams the Mavs are underdogs to finish ahead of for worst record. There's not a ton to hold onto here, but the Magic should get Vucevic back post ASG break. That can't hurt. Gordon is having a breakout year, so hopefully he just continues to improve. Payton is fighting for his NBA life at this point, so you would hope that would push him to play better (altho I'm not sure he can do much better than 52.4 FG%). I think the fact the Magic didn't dump Fournier is an encouraging sign that they're not totally going into tank mode. I give the Mavs at least a reasonable shot of sneaking ahead of the Magic for worst record. Would be really sweet to drop the April 4th matchup vs the Magic in Orlando. It's the least we could do since we beat them earlier in the year. Smh... Hopefully by April the Mavs are in full on tank mode & wise enough to dump this game to the Magic.

Atlanta - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Hawks for the worst record. ATL is tied for the 4th softest SOS so far this season, so tougher games are on the way for the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the few teams in the league that I can safely say the Mavs are more talented than. It was really nice to drop both games to the Hawks this year given that fact. Honestly, I really think the Mavs would need some luck to finish ahead of the Hawks for worst record. They'd need a Harrison Barnes injury and the Hawks staying healthy, getting hot etc. Otherwise, we're gonna need to win the lottery to finish ahead of the Hawks in the 2018 draft order.

Sacramento - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Kings for the worst record. Here comes the leader in the clubhouse for the #1 overall pick. The Kings are already benching veterans. Taking turns sitting Vince Carter, George Hill, Zach Randolph etc. Their head coach Dave Joerger has already been quoted talking about the vets being professionals about it. Not to mention it's looking very likely they'll deal away George Hill and others at the deadline. They're tied for the 10th softest SOS this season, so tougher games are on the horizon. The only hope the Mavs have to finish ahead of the Kings is to either A) Win the lottery and/or B) get smart, start tanking games themselves right now (we do have 3 more games with SAC this yr, including 2 games before the ASB. I'll be down on my hands & knees praying for losses those nights). Plus, hope the Kings can back into a few Ws like they did Tues vs Orlando (and hopefully 3 more times vs us!). Short of that, I can't see any way the Mavs are picking ahead of the Kings come June.

Recap: In particular, every Orlando, Phoenix, and Brooklyn win right now is huge for the Mavs. To a lesser extent, Memphis & Chicago wins too. Obviously, we're not hating a trade to get a piece like Barea or Wes Matthews out of here. Heard a radio interview with DSJ saying that Matthews has been his most helpful mentor this season, so I think Matthews is probably here for the foreseeable future. Just seems like the organization really likes him. Carlisle loves Barea that's well known. We gotta root for non-career threatening injuries. Any of those are more than welcome.

Here's a realistic projection of the worst record "race"

1) Sacramento
2) Atlanta
3) Orlando
4) Phoenix
5) Dallas
6) Chicago
7) Cleveland (via Brooklyn)
8) Charlotte
9) Memphis
10) Philadelphia (via LA Lakers)


Could also see the Mavs sneaking into the 3rd spot, but making a conservative projection. Just don't see them finishing any worse than 6th. So, I would put their realistic range between 3rd & 6th. Would be sweet to hit that Lotto! One time baby!!

Holy crap, dude, you are putting in some WORK.

All I care about is finishing in the top-5 -- it gives us a bit of a safety net if the lotto balls don't fall our way...

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Just gonna have a little more fun with this.

Let's say the draft order does finish like this:

1) Sacramento
2) Atlanta
3) Orlando
4) Phoenix
5) Dallas


With Divac involved, I could definitely see the Kings taking Doncic.

1) SAC - Luka Doncic

Would have to project ATL taking whoever they have rated as the best big on their board, with Doncic gone.

2) ATL - DeAndre Ayton (Altho, I could see Bagley III going here too)

I could see Orlando passing on Bagley III because of the similar skill set to Aaron Gordon. Also because unexpected things happen in the draft. I could see them taking Michael Porter Jr here, if their scouts have him rated as a generational talent. Could see them reaching on Bamba here, altho that's less likely with them just having drafted Jonathan Isaac last year. Could see them drafting Trae Young here too. They could take so many players we'd like to get our hands on, one reason I'm really hoping we sneak ahead of them for worst record. But for speculation purposes, I'm going to give them...

3) ORL - Michael Porter Jr

The Suns biggest need is at PG, if they're drafting here I can see them taking Trae Young over Marvin Bagley III

4) PHX - Trae Young

This is one of the nice things about the Mavs finishing with a top 5 pick, even top 6, which I don't see them falling further than 6th. A player like Marvin Bagley III could fall to them. It's not likely that Bagley himself falls, but it's not absurd either. Sitting here at 5 the Mavs have their pick of Bagley III or Bamba. Plus, they could take a long look at Jackson Jr from Michigan State or Mikal Bridges from Villanova. All 4 of these players I've heard described multiple times as possibly the best player in this draft. By the way, say Kings' ownership views Ayton as too good to pass up no matter what Divac says, then you could see a scenario where Doncic falls to 5, and the Mavs once again are looking at a player who many say could be the best player in this draft. Same is true of Michael Porter Jr, if he declares. For our purposes, I'm going to have the Mavs take...

5) DAL - Marvin Bagley III


If I'm right, and the Mavs don't fall any further than the 6th pick, then I'll probably be happy with anyone they pick, unless it's Porter Jr. Too worried about the back with that kid. This is going to be an exciting sweat for the Mavs til Lottery night!

Really hope they sneak out the 3rd pick. If Sac is 1 and Atl is 2, then I think Sac takes Doncic and the Mavs get whoever is left over between Ayton and Bagley III. I ain't mad at that.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Holy crap, dude, you are putting in some WORK.

All I care about is finishing in the top-5 -- it gives us a bit of a safety net if the lotto balls don't fall our way...

Lol. I appreciate it. I use to dabble with sports betting. Let's just say that Patriots miracle come back in last year's Super Bowl was a punch to the kidneys! LOL.

But, I'm really good at doing research.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Miller's primary job is to win games, not to prepare his players for the NBA

This is true, but at the same time, very close behind Miller's primary job of winning games, is his secondary job of recruiting next year's crop. You don't want to have a reputation of not developing a top flight, 1 & done NBA prospect while you had him.

[EricaLubarsky]

If I had to wager, I’d wager we end 6th and then draft 7th

[Underdog]

@bobbykaralla: On our podcast Donnie Nelson said Skin and I are worth a 2nd-rounder. But if I can step up my fashion game, we might be able to snag Dallas a late-1st. I will get better.