Free Agent Watch: CP3 & D12

[yahyes]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I'm split on which outcome I want in the Finals when it comes to the Mavs' offseason... If Miami takes it, then it proves that only superteams can win in today's NBA, which might convince Paul & Howard to take less money to pair up in Dallas. But if San Antonio takes it, then it proves that even an aging superstar can lead a team to the Finals, and might change the overall perception that free agents have about teaming with a 35-year-old Dirk.

It could really send a lot of influence towards CP3 and Dwight. If Miami wins it. Then Carlisle will still go down as the coach to assemble the right strategy. Which is beating the big 3 concept. Also, the masterpiece Dirk performed against his main nemesis. I wont be mad if the dreaded Heat take it. That way the San Antonio fan I know wont say... "We beat the Heat too.. so what else is new?". If Spurs win then Lebron, Wade, and Bosh may just all have tension all summer. Possibly the end of their squad.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by yahyes

If Spurs win then Lebron, Wade, and Bosh may just all have tension all summer. Possibly the end of their squad.

Hard to say, but it would certainly open the door for us to chase LeBron after Dirk's contract expires.

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Hard to say, but it would certainly open the door for us to chase LeBron after Dirk's contract expires.

I don't think I could stomach lebron in a Mavs uniform.

[Bayliss]

Actually it will be the perfect time for LeBron to come. He will be 29 next year. He's been in the league for 10+ years. He already has played 30k+ minutes. And throw in another 6k minutes in the playoffs.

By the time the Mavs get him he will be pretty much a shell of himself.

[mavsmanfromohio]

IMO Miami and SA have the same # of superstars. Obviously Miami has a more talented and athletic roster but this is where Pop's defensive schemes become so important, much like Carlisle's in 2011. Frankly, Avery Johnson could have coached the Heat to a championship during last years lockout season.

If we get CP3/D12 it's because they know Carlisle can coach them to multiple championships.

[yahyes]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Hard to say, but it would certainly open the door for us to chase LeBron after Dirk's contract expires.

Wow. I think. The chances of Lebron using his ETO next year are worse than.. us having CP3 and D12 here at the same time.

[SMC0007]

LeBron would give anything right about now, to have Dirk receiving those kick out passes...especially the wide open 3's Bosh gets. The PnR would be unreal between them as well.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by yahyes

Wow. I think. The chances of Lebron using his ETO next year are worse than.. us having CP3 and D12 here at the same time.

Why, exactly, would he not use his ETO?

[yahyes]

Originally Posted by jthig32

Why, exactly, would he not use his ETO?

I just see that being a worse hope than 2010 summer(when bosh, lebron, and wade were free agents) even though it worked out nicely for Dallas with the trophy. Also, when Deron snubbed us in 2012. But I'm looking at right now wanting someone like Chris Paul first. Then lets talk to Dwight.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by yahyes

I just see that being a worse hope than 2010 summer(when bosh, lebron, and wade were free agents) even though it worked out nicely for Dallas with the trophy. Also, when Deron snubbed us in 2012. But I'm looking at right now wanting someone like Chris Paul first. Then lets talk to Dwight.

Whether or not LeBron exercises his ETO has nothing to do with your fear of getting your heart broken as a Mavs fan.

[Underdog]

The amount of cap room teams will actually have:

Dallas Mavericks

Committed salary for 2013/14: $42,994,093 (view full forecast)

Projected cap space: $13,615,538


The #13 pick has a cap hold of $1,655,300, but Dallas are reportedly trying to move it. The theory that it can be attached to Shawn Marion's final season (Which he surely will not opt out of) seems fantastical; nevertheless, it seems Dallas is pretty intent on moving the pick. And even if they aren't, a clause in the 2011 CBA may save them. Teams with unsigned first round picks can, if all parties want, file documents with the league agreeing not to sign the player that season, which in return removes their cap hold for the year. (This rule was used by Dallas last year on Petteri Koponen, and was also used by Chicago on Nikola Mirotic.) So the #13 pick's cap hold is not included here.

Marion's salary of $9,316,796 is likely to come down due to missed performance incentives, although, since the details of that are not known, the $9,316,796 number will continue to be used. O.J. Mayo is a logical certainty to opt out of his $4,200,900, which would thus turn into a $4,824,000 cap hold. The status of other cap holds is less certain; for the purposes of the above number, it is assumed that Chris Kaman ($9,600,000), Anthony Morrow ($7,600,000), Roddy Beaubois ($5,568,333), Elton Brand ($3,990,950) and Mike James ($884,293) are all renounced, while Koponen once again has his cap hold ($880,600) expunged. Brandan Wright ($884,293) surely won't be renounced, however, and while Darren Collison's cap hold of $5,798,360 is slightly in the way, it's not exhorbitant, so it is assumed it will only be renounced if needs be (i.e. if the signing of a big time free agent necessitates it). Dallas also has two unguaranteed contracts; Josh Akognon ($788,872, fully unguaranteed until December 1st) and Bernard James ($788,872, fully unguaranteed until July 15th); for the purposes of this calculation, it is assumed that Akognon will be waived and James won't.

All this, then, leaves Dallas here:

Dirk Nowitzki: $22,721,381
Shawn Marion: $9,316,796
OJ Mayo: $4,824,000 (cap hold)
Vince Carter: $3,180,000
Jared Cunningham: $1,208,400
Brandan Wright: $884,293 (Cap hold)
Jae Crowder: $788,872
Bernard James: $788,872
Roster charge: $490,180
Roster charge: $490,180
Roster charge: $490,180
Roster charge: $490,180

Total = $44,884,462 = $13,615,538 in cap room


This is a very variable figure for all of the reasons mentioned above; Marion's to-be-adjusted contract, the status of the #13, possible trades of Marion and/or Cunningham, etc. The status of Mayo is also fairly significant - the day he leaves to sign elsewhere will open up an extra $4,333,820 in cap room, or, if he stays, the day he re-signs will take up a big chunk of the $13.6 mil. Nevertheless, while Dallas doesn't have as much cap room to throw about as others, they're in the game.

[grndmstr_c]

^That's the first I've heard about the performance incentives in Shawn's contract. Can't imagine that'd knock off too much, but every little bit could help, and new information is cool, so thanks for posting.

[sefant77]

He will use his ETO to sign either a real max contract or sign with another team.

I could even see him do something crazy like signing with the Lakers, specially if Kobe is kind of done. James is all about being a world wide brand and icon and spending the rest of his career with the lakers would definatly push that. Also if the Heat lose again a final and Wade declining age wise he know that the "Big 3" wont guarantee him several rings anyway. And the championship monkey he has off his back since last year.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

^That's the first I've heard about the performance incentives in Shawn's contract. Can't imagine that'd knock off too much, but every little bit could help, and new information is cool, so thanks for posting.

StoryTellers has had it listed forever, but it's only ~50K according to them, so it's really not worth mentioning.

I don't really understand why Deeks is including Mayo in his figures. He mentions that he's going to opt out and turn into a cap hold, but retaining that cap hold does the Mavs absolutely no good, so I don't really see the point in acting like they don't have that space.

I also don't see Collison's hold as being any less likely to be renounced than Brand's.

[BGMaverick9]

Originally Posted by yahyes

I just see that being a worse hope than 2010 summer(when bosh, lebron, and wade were free agents) even though it worked out nicely for Dallas with the trophy. Also, when Deron snubbed us in 2012. But I'm looking at right now wanting someone like Chris Paul first. Then lets talk to Dwight.

That really didn't answer the question....

As for the holds and etc, I wouldn't be surprised if Wright's is the only one they make sure isn't relinquished right away.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by jthig32

StoryTellers has had it listed forever, but it's only ~50K according to them, so it's really not worth mentioning.

I don't really understand why Deeks is including Mayo in his figures. He mentions that he's going to opt out and turn into a cap hold, but retaining that cap hold does the Mavs absolutely no good, so I don't really see the point in acting like they don't have that space.

I also don't see Collison's hold as being any less likely to be renounced than Brand's.

Deeks now as this update added to the Mav section:

EDIT: Come to think of it, O.J. Mayo's cap hold doesn't actually matter. As he's only played one season since changing teams as a free agent, he only has non-Bird rights, should he opt out. And yet if Dallas renounces him, he'd still only have non-Bird rights. Mayo's cap hold, then, can be discounted.

[Dirk's Knee]

Originally Posted by mavsmanfromohio

IMO Miami and SA have the same # of superstars. Obviously Miami has a more talented and athletic roster but this is where Pop's defensive schemes become so important, much like Carlisle's in 2011. Frankly, Avery Johnson could have coached the Heat to a championship during last years lockout season.

If we get CP3/D12 it's because they know Carlisle can coach them to multiple championships.

I'd argue that Ginobili is no longer a superstar. He's playing off the bench and I'd bet he retires after this season. I'd also argue that San Antonio actually has the deeper roster.

We won't get both CP3 and D12. I'm not sure why so many think Carlisle with any lineup is some type of guarantee of multiple championships. He's won one in his career. Poppovich is the only active coach with multiple championships. In fact, there are only 4 actives coaches in the NBA which have won a championship and in the history of the NBA is actually pretty rare for a coach to win more than 1. Now do I like our chances with CP3 or D12? Certainly much better than what we've trotted out the last 2 years! Looking forward to the offseason, but not going to set myself up for disappointment when we miss on the CP3 and D12 lottery...

[sefant77]

You know that the Malice in the Palice probably costed RC another championship?

That was a great great team...

[saclare]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/93...ad-free-agency

Wonder who the third team is...

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by saclare

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/93...ad-free-agency

Wonder who the third team is...

You can bet that third team wasn't the Mavs, seeing as how everyone loooooves talking about Mark Cuban getting fined.

[BGMaverick9]

If it's not Sacramento, I'll be shocked.
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.c...w-kings-coach/

[Dirk's Knee]

For sure not Cuban, he's learned his lesson and when fined by the NBA always makes a matching charitable donation. It would've been publicized.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by sefant77

You know that the Malice in the Palice probably costed RC another championship?

That was a great great team...

True, but would he have been available to us if he did win that championship? Older squad with Reggie, could they have won another. He was also with Detroit if I remember correctly, Larry Brown back doored his way to Detroit.

[purplefrog]

Originally Posted by BGMaverick9

If it's not Sacramento, I'll be shocked.
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.c...w-kings-coach/

Yep.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...arges/2409499/

[EricaLubarsky]

Those teams are going to be under a LOT of scrutiny if FAs decide to sign there, perhaps even facing harsher penalties even if their stupid publicity stunts were no part of the FA's decision.

[sefant77]

Its multiple sources Broussard but...

@SportsCener: DEVELOPING: Doc Rivers believes it "may be time for a change" in his status as Celtics coach, source told @Chris_Broussard.

It would be pretty bad seeing him leave and maybe sign with Clippers or Lakers. Both would take him in a heartbeat.

[DTownKidd]

FWIW, I read somewhere that Dwight made less money in sponsorships Thai year than he did in ORL. Probably a good amount attributed to he nonsense, but I think when you are the guy for a market, rather than being diluted in the major markets by other stars you can make much more money. That being said, I doubt that thought process occurs in most athletes minds..

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Its multiple sources Broussard but...



It would be pretty bad seeing him leave and maybe sign with Clippers or Lakers. Both would take him in a heartbeat.

That would suck if he went to the Clippers, but I guess the Clips would do anything to keep Paul anyway. Meaning that if it isn't Rivers, then it will be someone who Paul will most likely be comfortable with.

[Kidd Karma]

Can an NBA HC do that, walk away from a contract, then sign one up with another team immediately? He has 3 years 21 million left on his Celtics deal.

[spreedom]

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

Can an NBA HC do that, walk away from a contract, then sign one up with another team immediately? He has 3 years 21 million left on his Celtics deal.

The team he's signed with has to release him from his contract. In some cases teams will negotiate some sort of compensation for the team that's losing the coach (i.e. draft picks).

[LonghornDub]

One disappointing season with a Rondo injury and Rivers is on the outs? Sheesh. They were in the Finals 3 years ago and the ECF last year.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

One disappointing season with a Rondo injury and Rivers is on the outs? Sheesh. They were in the Finals 3 years ago and the ECF last year.

He knows what his team is and doesn't wanna rebuild.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

One disappointing season with a Rondo injury and Rivers is on the outs? Sheesh. They were in the Finals 3 years ago and the ECF last year.

Wasn't he iffy about coming back last season too? I think it all comes down to the return date of Rondo and if they can get a pg to fill in while he is out.

[Bayliss]

It isn't just Rondo. Year before last Ray Allen left. At the trade deadline they were trying to move Pierce. Pierce still might not be back with the Celtics. And Garnett is 50/50 on retiring this summer. Even if doesn't he is on his last legs.

Doc rode the Big 3 + Rondo for a few years but I imagine he doesn't want to go through the damage after the breakup.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by Bayliss

It isn't just Rondo. Year before last Ray Allen left. At the trade deadline they were trying to move Pierce. Pierce still might not be back with the Celtics. And Garnett is 50/50 on retiring this summer. Even if doesn't he is on his last legs.

Doc rode the Big 3 + Rondo for a few years but I imagine he doesn't want to go through the damage after the breakup.

Allen left due to bad blood, they tried to unload him. I think Pierce KG are tied at the hip, it'll be a collective decision on their part, I think Ainge is waiting for that....though all this Rivers talks makes it moot if he steps down.

[Melonhead]

Caught the better half of broussard discussing on ESPN about Paul and Howard joining forces. The only team I heard him discuss was the clippers.

[BGMaverick9]

If they're teaming up, Atlanta makes the most sense, with Dallas closely behind them.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Caught the better half of broussard discussing on ESPN about Paul and Howard joining forces. The only team I heard him discuss was the clippers.

That's impossible, seeing as how the Clippers will be over the cap if they re-sign Chris Paul.

Chris Paul $18.7m
Blake Griffin $16.4m
DeAndre Jordan $10m
Caron Butler $8m
Jamal Crawford $5.2m
Eric Bledsoe 2.6m

TOTAL: $60.9m, with a cap of $58-60m.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Wasn't he iffy about coming back last season too? I think it all comes down to the return date of Rondo and if they can get a pg to fill in while he is out.

Yeah, he's been waffling for awhile.

Originally Posted by Bayliss

It isn't just Rondo. Year before last Ray Allen left. At the trade deadline they were trying to move Pierce. Pierce still might not be back with the Celtics. And Garnett is 50/50 on retiring this summer. Even if doesn't he is on his last legs.

I get that, but that's not my point.

It's kind of a chickensh*t move to be honest. This is a coach who, in the last five years, has won an NBA Finals, an EC championship, and has another ECF appearance. They haven't even missed the playoffs yet and he's already planning his exit strategy? Not to mention he signed a big extension a couple years ago knowing that his core was aging and wouldn't be around much longer. Now he wants to get paid a buyout and go coach the Clippers to get paid twice?

I've always liked Doc, but it's kinda bush league.

[sefant77]

New CBA help please:

I know that a team over the cap (like Nets) cant receive Dwight (or anyone else) in a S&T (Lakers re-sign and ship him to Brooklyn for Lopez etc doesnt work).

Now i read this:

Sources say a trade package centered around Blake Griffin and Eric Bledsoe for Howard could be possible.

Clippers are under the cap (so no problem like the Nets would have) but the Lakers are over it. The Lakers could S&T Dwight to another team?