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Old 04-03-2023, 04:13 PM   #41
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Do you want to know what we want to happen or what we think will happen?
Both. What do you think should happen? And obviously knowing the Mavs it won't.
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Old 04-03-2023, 05:35 PM   #42
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What I want - Keep/re-sign Luka, Kyrie, Hardy, and Josh

What I think the Mavs will do -
Keep
Luka
Kleber
Bullock
Green (cheap contract -Cuban likes that)
Hardy (cheap contract - Cuban likes that)

Re-sign
Powell
Wright

Attempt to Trade (but will find no takers because they set the bar too high)
THJ
McGee
Bertrans

Let Go
Wood
Pinson
Frank
Morris
Holiday

Will attempt to Re-sign but Fail (Cuban will low ball him)
Kyrie
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Old 04-03-2023, 06:10 PM   #43
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I get the instinct to get rid of Powell (and Pinson, for that matter). I think some continuity is important and those two specifically are culture guys and borderline assistant coaches that any team could use. If they re-sign for the minimum as 12th/13th man, I'd like them back.
DP is never going to re-sign for minimum here, and he is never going to be that far down the bench. All we have is proof of this.
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Old 04-04-2023, 12:07 AM   #44
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I agree 💯 with this

Should the mavs tank?
They've lost 7 of last 8 down the stretch. Isn't that tanking?
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Old 04-04-2023, 02:40 AM   #45
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Best way to retain Kyrie is to trade our pick at the deadline if we are at #10.

Hardaway/#10 for Turner

Who says no?

Fire Kidd
Hire Stotts
Resign Wood

Luka/Kyrie/Green/Wood/Turner
Hardy takes the JET/NVE role
Wright/Holiday/Bullock/Maxi/McGee

Last edited by rimrocker; 04-04-2023 at 02:48 AM.
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Old 04-04-2023, 09:46 AM   #46
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I forgot Morris was even on the team
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Old 04-04-2023, 11:29 AM   #47
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Best way to retain Kyrie is to trade our pick at the deadline if we are at #10.

Hardaway/#10 for Turner

Who says no?

Fire Kidd
Hire Stotts
Resign Wood

Luka/Kyrie/Green/Wood/Turner
Hardy takes the JET/NVE role
Wright/Holiday/Bullock/Maxi/McGee
I've long wanted Turner for this team and fit with Luka. All-in if we can get him, especially for that price. I'd love to add another talented young buck because they tend to be solid to plus contributors and come cheap, but there's always risk that they could flop and almost always take time to acclimate to pro ball, which wouldn't be ideal when paying max to Luka/Kyrie. I can honestly see the arguments both ways, though.

Can the above work within the cap restrictions?
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Old 04-05-2023, 12:00 AM   #48
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This post will age like milk if we get #1

But the thing about this draft is that it?s surprisingly weak. Wemby will be Yao Ming and maybe even Kareem, but other than that it?s spotty at best. It could be a one star and some starters kind of draft. The good news is lots of defensive wings and forwards. The bad news is there are no centers of note.

But maybe we can con Rick into giving us Turner and we can grab DFS 2.0 in the draft.
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Old 04-05-2023, 02:32 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
This post will age like milk if we get #1

But the thing about this draft is that it?s surprisingly weak. Wemby will be Yao Ming and maybe even Kareem, but other than that it?s spotty at best. It could be a one star and some starters kind of draft. The good news is lots of defensive wings and forwards. The bad news is there are no centers of note.

But maybe we can con Rick into giving us Turner and we can grab DFS 2.0 in the draft.
If Hendricks or Dick is there when we pick I'd say they would be great fits with Luka.
But I think the only way to get Turner is giving up that pick or Hardy.
I'd trade the pick for Turner because he fills need and has experience.
We cant give up Hardy because he is our insurance when Luka gets tired of this mess and demands out.
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Old 04-05-2023, 09:35 AM   #50
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I think the Pacers would not want to add another pick in this draft. They have 3 firsts and an early 2nd. They might like to defer and takes picks from future draft. They have Nesmith, Duarte, Mathurin, Buddy, Nwora for wings. How does THJ fit other than salary match.
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Old 04-05-2023, 09:58 AM   #51
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Two of my favorite guys in this draft are Houston Cougars.

Jarace Walker is a 6'9" wrecking ball that's built like a Isaiah Stewart or Bismack Biyombo, but is more perimeter oriented.

Marcus Sasser is this year's Desmond Bane. Undersized 2 who can shoot and compete on defense.

It's a pipe dream, but would love to walk away with both of those guys. I'm also not opposed to taking Sasser at 10.
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Old 04-05-2023, 10:55 AM   #52
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Two of my favorite guys in this draft are Houston Cougars.

Jarace Walker is a 6'9" wrecking ball that's built like a Isaiah Stewart or Bismack Biyombo, but is more perimeter oriented.

Marcus Sasser is this year's Desmond Bane. Undersized 2 who can shoot and compete on defense.

It's a pipe dream, but would love to walk away with both of those guys. I'm also not opposed to taking Sasser at 10.
Sasser would be an excellent target to buy into the 2nd round, if he gets there. I like Walker a lot, seems to have some of that tenacity this team lacks and of course would fill a role with defense and...rebounding! He's a solid all around player that likely won't last even until 10.

Another guy I like a lot who likely won't be there is Taylor Hendricks. Great scorer at 6'9 including excellent outside shooting. Rebounds very well for his position. He would be plug and play here, but I think he goes top 5.

I've said I'm a Hogs fan before, so I'll give my two cents on the draftable guys.

Nick Smith Jr. is essentially Jaden Hardy, so I would only want the Mavs to draft him if we use Hardy in a trade. Smith potential is through the roof, but it's hard to justify risking a top 10 pick on a 19-year-old who had a mystery knee ailment and missed so much time his freshman year. Still, the talent is big time.

Black is such a good player and great kid. He's a DFW native and would fit in great here. My reservation is his style is very reminiscent of Luka's, which wouldn't be a bad thing for depth. His shooting leaves a lot to be desired, but something I think will come along as the spacing for the Hogs this year was abysmal. He would provide excellent defense, ball handling skills, passing, and downhill playmaking, aka another guy who has no issue taking it to the lane and finishing well.

Ricky Council IV is a target in the second round. A wing scorer who is decent on defense. He has the length and athleticism to be fine there. Explosive scorer with punch at the rim, shoots well despite the stats (went through a real tough stretch), and rebounds well for his size, though the effort can use a bit more consistency. He would be a draft and stash on the G league squad to see if any of the above can translate to the NBA.

As for the other prospects:

Someone mentioned Grady Dick as an option. I'm all for it as the shooting would be more than welcome, but will his defense translate to the league? A lot of people were surprised by that portion of his game being a plus last year.

Cam Whitmore is intriguing as I think he has more to tap into. He has the size, strength, and athleticism to be a shut down defensive wing. Very capable from deep. Had an up and down year for 'Nova but seemed to end it well, despite the dud last game in the Big East tourney.

Anyone know more on Rayan Rupert? He's got super intriguing size and wing span that would be an almost plug and play on the wing. Big time length. Couldn't find much on shooting as they were older write-ups, but they basically said his shot was a work in progress, though smooth. That coupled with that he not a big shot creator, might work against his favor in comparing to other guys in this range.

Someone mentioned lack of bigs, which is largely correct, but GG Jackson might be a sleeper. He's already getting lotto love. He's got a different skill set in that his comp is Bam Adebayo. Not seeing the same rebounding intensity, but capable with room to fill in on his frame.

Cason Wallace is a guy mocked closer to late lotto, but a very quick guard who would help tremendously on the perimeter on defense. Excellent scorer with upside to his shooting, and rebounds well for his position. Not sure this is the direction Mavs would go if Kyrie retained, though.

My new pet favorite is Jordan Hawkins. The kid simply made a lot of money with his play in the tournament. Exploded on the scene with his excellent shooting. He was constantly compared to Ray Allen and I would gladly add this kid to the rotation.
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Old 04-05-2023, 11:59 AM   #53
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Black is such a good player and great kid. He's a DFW native and would fit in great here. My reservation is his style is very reminiscent of Luka's, which wouldn't be a bad thing for depth. His shooting leaves a lot to be desired, but something I think will come along as the spacing for the Hogs this year was abysmal. He would provide excellent defense, ball handling skills, passing, and downhill playmaking, aka another guy who has no issue taking it to the lane and finishing well.

Reminds me of when we had a kid that played college ball in DFW in 2020 and was a plug and play type pick. But alas the Mavs FO were the smartest in the draft room.
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Old 04-05-2023, 12:38 PM   #54
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Reminds me of when we had a kid that played college ball in DFW in 2020 and was a plug and play type pick. But alas the Mavs FO were the smartest in the draft room.
Eh a little different in that he also went to TCU, but yea, we've beat the Bane train to death lol

Basically, I'd love for them to place more importance in the draft. Seemed to have taken a change with the Hardy pick in being aggressive to add talent.

My approach would be to float away from the high-end potential guys and get the guys who have already produced at a high level (college or G league). Those same guys have high ceilings but also high floors. Obviously this plays a little different in the top 10, but it applies to buying back into the 2nd round and whenever we have later 1st rounders.

Can go back to our championship season to see how cute they were in the drafts:

Jordan Hamilton over Jimmy Butler, Bojan Bogdanovic , hell even his own teammate in Cory Joseph showed better but...potential! Dig deeper and our favorite Chandler Parsons there in the 2nd. Our boy Bertans was found in the 2nd in this draft

2012-2013 were the picks for powder, as they were traded. Zeller and Olynyk fit the bill, but we can assume the team trading for them made the pick, and not the Mavs. This is also where the Mavs should have drafted Giannis, but we know Cuban nixed that.

Justin Anderson over Bobby Portis and Montrezl Harrell, I guess you could include Larry Nance Jr. and Kevon Looney, but I didn't think much of them at the time. Bonus Josh Richardson and Norman Powell in the 2nd

A.J. Hammons...yea yea 2nd rounder, but Goerges Niang was right there, too

Dennis Smith Jr. is one I won't harp on as it was a top 10 pick and pretty much consensus. But given guys like Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo went behind him, begs for a different philosophy and scouting. Either way, this pick/player would have gone in the trade for KP

Boil it all down, the Mavs need to stop being cute with the draft and accumulate assets. Are any of the above players that we there true needle movers? No, but certainly valuable as rotation pieces and in trades. My hope is the Mavs continue to be uber aggressive in the 2nd round. Guys like Hardy can be found there. It's not easy, considering we don't have any of our actual picks for years, but we've seen it done.
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Old 04-05-2023, 12:50 PM   #55
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Two of my favorite guys in this draft are Houston Cougars.

Jarace Walker is a 6'9" wrecking ball that's built like a Isaiah Stewart or Bismack Biyombo, but is more perimeter oriented.

Marcus Sasser is this year's Desmond Bane. Undersized 2 who can shoot and compete on defense.

It's a pipe dream, but would love to walk away with both of those guys. I'm also not opposed to taking Sasser at 10.
I like Walker a lot. I also kinda want Detroit to win the lottery, because the word is they'd trade Stewart to prioritize Wemby. Steward/Walker could set wicked screens for Kyrie/Luka (if we have either/both), defend, and rebound. Walker probably wont be there at 10, so we would need to get lucky.

Miller? I think he's overrated. His ceiling is Tatum, but his floor is out of the league in a few years. I'm not sure he's worth a 2nd/3rd pick. If we somehow moved up to 2/3/4, then I would investigate trading down. Get a 12+future protected first for the 2/3/4.

Dick? If we end up with the 10th, I think it's slightly too early for him, but he could contribute here. He'd just most likely play PF here and that is NOT a good defensive frontcourt for a team that was 6th in offense and 23rd in defense this year.

Hendricks is who I would take at 10 if Walker was off the board. I really like his game. 6'9" monster defender who can rebound and hit threes. He would immediately make our front court defense better while not costing us floor spacing.

Filipowski sucks. Don't want him.

Leonard Miller/Clowney are interesting. Maybe we trade the 10 for 20 and a future FRP to get one of them. Both should be available in the second half of the first round.

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Old 04-05-2023, 02:56 PM   #56
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Let's hope we keep our pick...

My Big Board:


Tier 1
1) Wembanaya
2) Scoot
3) Miller

Going to be a bit controversial to include Scoot and Miller in the same tier as Wemby, but they profile similarly to guys like Ja Morant and Jayson Tatum. They will also come with less inherent injury questions than Wemby.

Tier 2
4) Amen Thompson
5) Jarace Walker
6) Taylor Hendricks

Ausar is a more complete player than Amen, but Amen just has that next level athleticism that you can't teach. Walker and Hendricks are both versatile 4s / small ball 5s who bring athleticism and defense. Walker handles the ball better, Hendricks shoots better.

Tier 3
7) Cam Whitmore
8) Ausar Thompson
9) Anthony Black
10) Cason Wallace

Cam is an elite athlete and versatile wing. Black is IMO overrated... he reminds me of a bigger Josh Green.
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Old 04-05-2023, 03:15 PM   #57
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Hmmm I could see your view on Black. His offensive game is already as good if not better than Green's, so that is where I'd push back a bit. We also didn't have dynamic shooters/scorers so I think his assist numbers don't tell the whole story. Would have greatly benefited from a big who could roll with him.
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Old 04-05-2023, 06:00 PM   #58
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I would not pass on either Walker or Whitmore if either fall to 9 or 10 and the Mavs are sitting there.

Assuming Scoot and the Thompson twins are gone by 9 or 10, I'd probably go Hood Schifino, if going for a guard. Assuming KI returns and with Hardy, Green and Luka, Mavs really need to get defensive frontcourt guys like Walker and whitmore and Hendricks.

I like the idea of trading for Stewart from Pistons or even Duren.
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Old 04-05-2023, 09:53 PM   #59
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So if we give up the pick to the Knicks that trade is officially done and we no longer owe anything? But if we keep it we would owe next years first? Can anyone clarify?
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Old 04-05-2023, 09:56 PM   #60
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Welp we can close this thread down. Mavs won?t be getting the 10th pick.

Tied with Bulls for 11/12, bulls are resting Friday vs Mavs.
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Old 04-05-2023, 09:57 PM   #61
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So if we give up the pick to the Knicks that trade is officially done and we no longer owe anything? But if we keep it we would owe next years first? Can anyone clarify?
We?d still owe a first to the Knicks this is correct
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Old 04-05-2023, 11:47 PM   #62
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Welp we can close this thread down. Mavs won?t be getting the 10th pick.

Tied with Bulls for 11/12, bulls are resting Friday vs Mavs.
Yep they won't get their 1st round pick this year

Not that I'm upset or anything because I'd rather watch them in the playoffs anyway

Hell they traded a 1st pick for Wood and truth be told I'm not sure they wouldn't have traded that 10th Pick anyway
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Old 04-06-2023, 10:32 AM   #63
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Hoping Bulls decide to not rest against the mavs..

if mavs go 1-1 in the last two games, there is potential the 10-12 draft picks all end up tied, then another big if coin toss lands mavs at 10.
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Old 04-06-2023, 10:45 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Melonhead View Post
Hoping Bulls decide to not rest against the mavs..

if mavs go 1-1 in the last two games, there is potential the 10-12 draft picks all end up tied, then another big if coin toss lands mavs at 10.
I thought they just split the balls
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Old 04-06-2023, 11:53 AM   #65
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See 9 and 10 below on tied teams in lottery. winner in random drawing gets leftover ping pong balls if not even number to distribute.

DETERMINING THE NBA DRAFT ORDER

1. All teams missing the playoffs are in the Lottery
2. Teams with worse records get more chances at winning a top four pick (more ping pong ball combos)
3. The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
4. The 2nd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
5. The 3rd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
6. The 4th overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
7. Remaining lottery teams, sorted by record, fill out picks 5-14
8. Playoff teams, sorted by record, are assigned picks 15-30 - playoff seeds and outcomes have no impact
9. Random drawing decides who picks first between teams with same record
10. Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the random drawing winner
11. Second round is ordered by record without playoff consideration
12mmSecond round ties are in reverse order of the teams' first round picks
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Old 04-06-2023, 12:07 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by sig View Post
See 9 and 10 below on tied teams in lottery. winner in random drawing gets leftover ping pong balls if not even number to distribute.

DETERMINING THE NBA DRAFT ORDER

1. All teams missing the playoffs are in the Lottery
2. Teams with worse records get more chances at winning a top four pick (more ping pong ball combos)
3. The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
4. The 2nd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
5. The 3rd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
6. The 4th overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
7. Remaining lottery teams, sorted by record, fill out picks 5-14
8. Playoff teams, sorted by record, are assigned picks 15-30 - playoff seeds and outcomes have no impact
9. Random drawing decides who picks first between teams with same record
10. Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the random drawing winner
11. Second round is ordered by record without playoff consideration
12mmSecond round ties are in reverse order of the teams' first round picks
Yeah technically right about the odds being split but at 10/11, its almost guaranteed to be a coin flip between 10/11

1) for the top four picks they split the balls.10th gets 45 balls (4.5% chance of being drawn). 11th gets 18 balls (1.8% chance of being drawn). If we stay tied with 10th/11th, then we flip a coin and one team gets 32 balls (3.2%) and one team gets 31 balls (3.1%)

2) Then if we aren't drawn, which is almost guaranteed (96.8% chance) they will flip a coin to see who is 10th and who is 11th.
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Old 04-06-2023, 12:10 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by sig View Post
See 9 and 10 below on tied teams in lottery. winner in random drawing gets leftover ping pong balls if not even number to distribute.

DETERMINING THE NBA DRAFT ORDER

1. All teams missing the playoffs are in the Lottery
2. Teams with worse records get more chances at winning a top four pick (more ping pong ball combos)
3. The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
4. The 2nd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
5. The 3rd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
6. The 4th overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
7. Remaining lottery teams, sorted by record, fill out picks 5-14
8. Playoff teams, sorted by record, are assigned picks 15-30 - playoff seeds and outcomes have no impact
9. Random drawing decides who picks first between teams with same record
10. Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the random drawing winner
11. Second round is ordered by record without playoff consideration
12mmSecond round ties are in reverse order of the teams' first round picks
I know in 2021 tiebreakers were broken with a coin flip, in 2022 it was a random drawing. Not sure how they decide the process each year. Or if it depends on lottery v non lottery teams
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Old 04-06-2023, 12:26 PM   #68
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===========TANK STANDINGS=========
15th/16th are still technically possible, but unlikely
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
10th/11th/12th - 32.3% chance of keeping our pick (9.9% chance of a top 4)
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
8th - 99.6% chance of keeping our pick (28.9% chance of a top 4)
7th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (31.9% chance of a top 4)
6th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (35.2% chance of a top 4)


================TIE SCENARIOS=====================
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.3% chance of keeping pick


================STANDINGS================
9th - Jazz -1.5games
10th/11th/12th - Thunder/Bulls/MAVS
13th - Wolves +2.0 games

79.8% chance of keeping our pick (13.88 chance of a top 4) - BEFORE THE WIN (sole 10th)
32.3% chance of keeping our pick (10.3% chance of a top 4) - AFTER THE WIN (tied 10/11/12)
---------------
The win reduced the current forecast by a 47.5% chance of keeping the pick and 3.58% chance of a top-4

Last edited by EricaLubarsky; 04-06-2023 at 12:28 PM.
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Old 04-06-2023, 12:29 PM   #69
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There's a good chance Knicks won that trade, absolutely mugged us for Brunson, were only punished with a second-round pick, and are now going to get an 11-12 pick in this draft from us for abusing us in the trade and abusing Cuban with the Brunson thing.

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Old 04-06-2023, 02:38 PM   #70
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There's a good chance Knicks won that trade, absolutely mugged us for Brunson, were only punished with a second-round pick, and are now going to get an 11-12 pick in this draft from us for abusing us in the trade and abusing Cuban with the Brunson thing.
Well that?s a kick in the nuts. Can?t believe the nba only penalized them a 2nd round pick like that will deter teams from tampering. They got a legit all star caliber player. I?m tired of talking about Brunson.
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Old 04-06-2023, 05:43 PM   #71
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Well that?s a kick in the nuts. Can?t believe the nba only penalized them a 2nd round pick like that will deter teams from tampering. They got a legit all star caliber player. I?m tired of talking about Brunson.
What's worse is the pick just vanishes. It should be given to the team slighted. I'd say the same for any other team.
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Old 04-06-2023, 05:49 PM   #72
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Squinting for the silver lining...the win vs. the Kings essentially wrapped the 2 seed for the Grizzlies. Lends to a sit the starters type of game to end it vs. the Thunder, who are also facing a Jazz team sitting everyone.

Only problem is the Grizzlies at Thunder is the same damn time of Spurs at Mavs. I could see that being an entirely meaningless win to end the season on the outside looking in.

Squint harder, and you could see the Bulls beat the Pistons at home at noon prior to the above.

It would just be Mavs-esque to lose vs. the shorthanded Bulls tomorrow night to make it all moot.
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Old 04-06-2023, 06:45 PM   #73
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Squinting for the silver lining...the win vs. the Kings essentially wrapped the 2 seed for the Grizzlies. Lends to a sit the starters type of game to end it vs. the Thunder, who are also facing a Jazz team sitting everyone.

Only problem is the Grizzlies at Thunder is the same damn time of Spurs at Mavs. I could see that being an entirely meaningless win to end the season on the outside looking in.

Squint harder, and you could see the Bulls beat the Pistons at home at noon prior to the above.

It would just be Mavs-esque to lose vs. the shorthanded Bulls tomorrow night to make it all moot.
The most exciting the Mavs season has been since day 1.

But seriously, I'm more worried about the Spurs than the Bulls.
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Old 04-06-2023, 06:56 PM   #74
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Squinting for the silver lining...the win vs. the Kings essentially wrapped the 2 seed for the Grizzlies. Lends to a sit the starters type of game to end it vs. the Thunder, who are also facing a Jazz team sitting everyone.

Only problem is the Grizzlies at Thunder is the same damn time of Spurs at Mavs. I could see that being an entirely meaningless win to end the season on the outside looking in.

Squint harder, and you could see the Bulls beat the Pistons at home at noon prior to the above.

It would just be Mavs-esque to lose vs. the shorthanded Bulls tomorrow night to make it all moot.

Memphis plays Milwaukee Friday, while Sacramento plays Golden St

That #2 seed isn't locked up just yet

If Milwaukee beats them and the kings knock off golden st both teams will have huge games on Sunday
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Old 04-06-2023, 08:42 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
===========TANK STANDINGS=========
15th/16th are still technically possible, but unlikely
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
10th/11th/12th - 32.3% chance of keeping our pick (9.9% chance of a top 4)
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
8th - 99.6% chance of keeping our pick (28.9% chance of a top 4)
7th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (31.9% chance of a top 4)
6th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (35.2% chance of a top 4)


================TIE SCENARIOS=====================
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.3% chance of keeping pick


================STANDINGS================
9th - Jazz -1.5games
10th/11th/12th - Thunder/Bulls/MAVS
13th - Wolves +2.0 games

79.8% chance of keeping our pick (13.88 chance of a top 4) - BEFORE THE WIN (sole 10th)
32.3% chance of keeping our pick (10.3% chance of a top 4) - AFTER THE WIN (tied 10/11/12)
---------------
The win reduced the current forecast by a 47.5% chance of keeping the pick and 3.58% chance of a top-4
9th would have all but assured us of keeping the pick. And a puncher?s chance at Wemby. Sigh?
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Old 04-06-2023, 09:49 PM   #76
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What's worse is the pick just vanishes. It should be given to the team slighted. I'd say the same for any other team.
This would definitely be a nice consultation
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Old 04-07-2023, 09:27 AM   #77
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Paging those who know better, what happens if the Bulls finish with a worse regular season record, but they qualify for the play-in?

Is there a chance we end up behind them in the lottery or do the play-in teams fall into the 11-14 spots regardless of regular season record? It would make sense so as to punish weak conferences such as the East historically. To me, those that qualify for the playoffs should be inherently ranked higher. But I wouldn't be surprised.
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Old 04-07-2023, 09:49 AM   #78
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Paging those who know better, what happens if the Bulls finish with a worse regular season record, but they qualify for the play-in?

Is there a chance we end up behind them in the lottery or do the play-in teams fall into the 11-14 spots regardless of regular season record? It would make sense so as to punish weak conferences such as the East historically. To me, those that qualify for the playoffs should be inherently ranked higher. But I wouldn't be surprised.
It really depends if they make the playoffs proper.

1) If they win in the play-in and go to the playoffs, then they will be bumped to 15 and everyone below them that did not make the lottery will be bumped up one spot.

2) If they lose one or both games in the play-in and don't make the playoffs, then they will keep their position.

Last edited by EricaLubarsky; 04-07-2023 at 09:50 AM.
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Old 04-07-2023, 10:19 AM   #79
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It really depends if they make the playoffs proper.

1) If they win in the play-in and go to the playoffs, then they will be bumped to 15 and everyone below them that did not make the lottery will be bumped up one spot.

2) If they lose one or both games in the play-in and don't make the playoffs, then they will keep their position.
Ok, so hypothetically we beat the Bulls tonight and somehow lose to Spurs while they win vs. Detroit. That would create a tie situation, so perhaps back to the same issue lol

These scenarios are hurting my head this early. I'm almost indifferent to this season at the point.
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Old 04-07-2023, 10:41 AM   #80
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The Bucks are sitting Giannis, Holiday, Middleton, Lopez, and Connaughton tonight. I think the Grizzlies win easily and then rest everyone for the final game against the Thunder. Not looking good for the Mavs slim play-in hopes.
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