2011 NBA Finals Poll: Mavs vs. Heat

[LonghornDub]

For anybody who wants to know the historical numbers of how series play out from the current situation, here's everything you could want to know:

http://www.whowins.com/2011series/nba2011o.html

Obviously, not great odds for the Mavs from a historical standpoint. But they've got a lot of things working in their favor that don't show up in the numbers, and I still like their chances.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

For anybody who wants to know the historical numbers of how series play out from the current situation, here's everything you could want to know:

http://www.whowins.com/2011series/nba2011o.html

Obviously, not great odds for the Mavs from a historical standpoint. But they've got a lot of things working in their favor that don't show up in the numbers, and I still like their chances.

A lot of things working in their favor, Like what? And why do you still like our chances?

[41mvp]

We must win Game 4!!!
God please give us some chance!

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

A lot of things working in their favor, Like what? And why do you still like our chances?

For one, this is a much closer matchup than a lot of those Finals that ended up 2-1, both subjectively and in terms of regular-season win differential. Nets-Spurs 2003 and Blazers-Bulls 1992, to name a couple more recent ones.

Even taking those series out, the odds are decidedly stacked against the Mavs, but if sports were always about what's supposed to happen...there wouldn't be sports.

[Murphy3]

Personally, I don't see a huge difference in if the Mavs were to win game 4 after losing game 3 compared to winning game 3 but losing game 4.. So, go make it happen.

[Kante]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Personally, I don't see a huge difference in if the Mavs were to win game 4 after losing game 3 compared to winning game 3 but losing game 4.. So, go make it happen.

The thing was it´s nearly impossible to win the 3 home games, 2 out of 3 was the goal i said to myself!

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Personally, I don't see a huge difference in if the Mavs were to win game 4 after losing game 3 compared to winning game 3 but losing game 4.. So, go make it happen.

Assuming it's 2-2 either way, I'm sure it'd be even more disappointing to lose Game 4 after winning Game 3 than vice versa.

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Personally, I don't see a huge difference in if the Mavs were to win game 4 after losing game 3 compared to winning game 3 but losing game 4.. So, go make it happen.

I think the thought process is that it's hard to win two games in a row.. so if we won Game 3 our chances of winning 2 out of 3 at home would be better. Of course there's probably a lot of bad logic in there, but both the Heat and the Mavs have bounced back well from losses during this playoff run.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

For anybody who wants to know the historical numbers of how series play out from the current situation, here's everything you could want to know:

http://www.whowins.com/2011series/nba2011o.html

Obviously, not great odds for the Mavs from a historical standpoint. But they've got a lot of things working in their favor that don't show up in the numbers, and I still like their chances.

wow those numbers are grim but interesting if Im reading them right. In the NBA finals in our situation we historically have a 91.7% historical chance of winning game 4 but only a 0% record of winning the series?

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

wow those numbers are grim but interesting if Im reading them right. In the NBA finals in our situation we historically have a 91.7% historical chance of winning game 4 but only a 0% record of winning the series?

I don't think 11 is a big enough sample size to go off of, personally.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

wow those numbers are grim but interesting if Im reading them right. In the NBA finals in our situation we historically have a 91.7% historical chance of winning game 4 but only a 0% record of winning the series?

Yeah, pretty strange. The stats also don't account for times like last year when the team that lost game 3 easily could have won the series but came up a bit short for whatever reason.

[Sportstudi]

Major props to:

41mvp, accsuperstar, alsdaddy, AO41, arkan, badfish22, Blackspider, blakepilot, Bookit, Cabbage, CanadianMavsFan, captred, CATCH-17, Cavs4Mavs, Cerrakin, CGM, croco, Darke, Dim499, dirt_dobber, DNowitzki41mavs, dreamofthefaith, DubOverdose, DwD, encwhooper, FINtastic, fluid.forty.one, Fragism, Freaky-fingaz, FromDownTown!, Funkman, GermanBlitzkrieg, GhostFace, GOGOJOJO, JKiddFTW, left texas, Lestat_1795, LetsGoMavs, LonghornDub, Lor20, mac222b, Mav Addict, MaverickOutlaw, Mavericks Rockets Fan, Mavsfan4ever, MavsFanSinceDayOne, MavsFTR, Member, monty55555, Morteus, mqywaaah, nashtymavsfan13, Nowitzness81, OSU_MAV, pepe, Razorback, ribosoma, Rick41, robz, Shiraste, Skeme99, sp3nc3r13, Spineglass11, Sportstudi, suraj, Thespiralgoeson, TNT, tsar, twistaeffect2004, Underdog, vinylstar, Xeno75

[xrobx]

i had mavs in 7, i'm confident that they'll pull it out tomorrow night

[alexamenos]

Originally Posted by xrobx

i had mavs in 7, i'm confident that they'll pull it out tomorrow night

Cool bro. That's a fine example of irrational confidence.

[LonghornDub]

We won this bitch because spiral came around from his couple weeks of Heat fear and correctly voted Mavs in 6 like a f*cking champ.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

We won this bitch because spiral came around from his couple weeks of Heat fear and correctly voted Mavs in 6 like a f*cking champ.

You know, in my brain, I still didn't really believe it. I said that mainly because I just wanted to believe it more than anything, and just wanted to keep the positive mojo going. I went into this series with no expectations, thinking that if they didn't win it, I would still just enjoy the ride. But then I started to really believe after that insane comeback in game 2. But what really sealed the deal for me was game 5. I knew that if the Mavs split the first two games in Miami and then won two out of three at home, they would close it out. I just knew it.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

wow those numbers are grim but interesting if Im reading them right. In the NBA finals in our situation we historically have a 91.7% historical chance of winning game 4 but only a 0% record of winning the series?

Now, future teams will not have said 0% historical chance.

[xrobx]

11-0 just became 11-1