2 minutes to go in a close game - who should get the ball?

[MFFL]

There have been 29 games where the Mavs were either up by 10 or down by 10 within the last 2 minutes of the game. The rest of the games the Mavs either blew out their opponent or were blown out (only once this season).

Here are the stats for the players who played in the last two minutes of these 29 close games.

Bell: 2 fouls, 2 of 2 FG, 5 of 6 FT, 2 rebounds, no turnovers, no assists
Bradley: 1 foul, 1 of 4 FG, no FT, 3 rebounds, no turnovers, no assists
Finley: 11 fouls, 7 of 19 FG (36.8%), 19 of 21 FT, 9 rebounds, 1 turnover, no assists
Griffin: 2 fouls, 0 of 0 FG, no FT, no rebounds, 1 turnover, no assists
LaFrentz: 3 fouls, 1 of 2 FG, 2 of 2 FT, 5 rebounds, 1 turnover, no assists
Najera: 3 fouls, 2 of 2 FG, no FT, no rebounds, 1 turnover, no assists
Nash: 8 fouls, 10 of 27 FG (37.0%), 30 of 30 FT, 9 rebounds, 6 turnovers, 11 assists
Nowitzki: 6 fouls, 12 of 24 FG (50.%), 17 of 18 FT, 13 rebounds, no turnovers, 4 assists
Van Exel: 4 fouls, 6 of 16 FG (37.5%), 9 of 13 FT, 8 rebounds, 1 turnover, 3 assists
Williams: 6 fouls, 0 of 4 FG, 2 of 2 FT, no rebounds, no turnovers, no assists

The big 3 has hit 66 of 69 free throws (over 95%) in the last two minutes of these close games.

[Fidel]

Very nice work MFFL, thanks.

It´s obviously no contest between Dirk and the rest. Nash´s ft attempt are that high because he´s the one who gets fouled mostly at the end of close games to stop the clock. I do not like the fact that he has more fg attempts than Dirk at all. What sticks out is that no one besides Nash has any assits worth mentioning. At least a part of the reason for that could be that we don´t have any good halfcourt sets to execute.

[MavsFanFinley]

Excellent work MFFL.

It's good to see the Big 3 are hitting their ft's. Finley is higher than I would have expected him to be. I would never have guessed he had more ft attempts than Dirk. Slim, I know, just surprised me.

I like that he and Dirk haven't turned the ball over, but have rebounded nicely. So have Nash and NVE.

I'm glad Finley has the less fg attempts between the big 3. I can just see the riot that would start if it were otherwise. However, for NVE to be known as Mr.Cluth, he isn't much better than Finley this year in that department.

[FilthyFinMavs]

<< Excellent work MFFL.

It's good to see the Big 3 are hitting their ft's. Finley is higher than I would have expected him to be. I would never have guessed he had more ft attempts than Dirk. Slim, I know, just surprised me.

I like that he and Dirk haven't turned the ball over, but have rebounded nicely. So have Nash and NVE.

I'm glad Finley has the less fg attempts between the big 3. I can just see the riot that would start if it were otherwise. However, for NVE to be known as Mr.Cluth, he isn't much better than Finley this year in that department. >>



There would be 30 threads of polls talking about how Fin should not get more touches than Nash and Dirk. I too am glad he doesn't have more attempts than Dirk and Nash because I was not in the mood of seeing all these junk posts. I don't mean this is a junk post this is actually a great post something you rarely see. Good lookin.

[Rhylan]

Interesting that NVE, Nash, Fin are all around the same level.

Nash, the previous two seasons, seemed to be God-like in the clutch. He hasn't been that, this year, in my mind. This confirms it. Dunno why, though.

[DTL]

great work MFFL. must be fun going through the play-by-play and reliving all the clutch moments [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

btw, what's the minute distribution like? i'd imagine Big Three and NVE have been getting most of the crunch time PT, but is there a consistent fifth that stands out?

[LRB]

Ideally we would see a fairly even distribution of shots between the Big 3 and NVE. We should be going to Dirk more in the post to force a double team for him to kick out to an open man. Our team assists for this period would go up as would the team FG%. Dirk might get slightly more shots, but I feel teams would start doubling him in the clutch.

Well so far I can only see this strategy deployed on a very limited basis by Nellie. I still hope for more team offense and less one on one offense in the clutch.

[LRB]

BTW excellent work putting the stats together MFFL. Thanks.

[MFFL]

<< great work MFFL. must be fun going through the play-by-play and reliving all the clutch moments [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] >>



I actually only noticied a couple of games. Most of the time I was just slogging through the games.



<< btw, what's the minute distribution like? i'd imagine Big Three and NVE have been getting most of the crunch time PT, but is there a consistent fifth that stands out? >>



Unfortunately I could not figure out a way to find that &quot;other&quot; player. I suspect that it would have been Najera if he hadn't gotten hurt and missed all of those games.

[Lvubun1]

I think the ball should go to different people depending on the situation. The game is tied so a bucket or a trip to the line would do it, give it to Dirk in the post, we need a three, give it to NVE or Nash to penetrate and dish or find a shot for themselves, Finley is hot and has a mis-match give it to him. We have four deadly players and we should take advange of that, keep the opposition guessing.

[Bayliss]

<< I think the ball should go to different people depending on the situation. The game is tied so a bucket or a trip to the line would do it, give it to Dirk in the post, we need a three, give it to NVE or Nash to penetrate and dish or find a shot for themselves, Finley is hot and has a mis-match give it to him. We have four deadly players and we should take advange of that, keep the opposition guessing. >>



Recipes for losing against tough teams, especially in the playoffs.

[MFFL]

edit-

Dirk has 4 assists.

[Drbio]

What the?????

I posted in this thread last night second in line. What happened to my post?

Anyways....excellent post MFFL. You can't go wrong with any of the Big 3.

[Murphy3]

someone said that...ideally, the shots should be distributed evenly between the big three and nve..something like that.

no.
the pecking order should be dirk, nash/fin, ..then somewhere below them, nve.

why? you have to ride your clydesdale. Dirk is clutch down the stretch, always has been. he will get good looks and not turn the ball over..plus, he'll get to the line and hit his free throws.

nve and fin next. why? both of them are good shooters that hit their free throws

nve somewhere below..why? he's a 40-41% shooter for a reason. What reason is that? because he's not that great or consistent of a shooter over his career. Plus, i worry about his free throws late in games. He has shown a propensity to miss alot of clutch free throws late in games this season.


no, dirk doesn't need to take every shot down the stretch by no means..but the offense needs to be ran through him more and more

[Bayliss]

Murph, agree but a little different explanation:

Dirk should easily have the ball in his hands late in games because there is not a single player in the league today that can &quot;stop&quot; him one on one. Robert Horry gives him fits. But if you put the ball in his hands consistently Dirk **will score**. Much the same way Kobe scores on the so called &quot;Kobe stoppers.&quot;

And if there isn't a single person that guard him one on one then that obviously means two choices: either let Dirk burn you or double him. Doubling him means that there is a good shooter open (usually Nash or Fin), or a big man open underneath (Raef/Najera lately). Dirk has shown the last month that he can find those people consistently.

It is much the same way the Lakers win with Kobe/Shaq... they force the double team and Horry kills the opponent, and much the way the Spurs win with Duncan... he forces the double and Parker, etc kills the opponent.

All I'm asking of Nellie is for us to do the **samething**. Nellie doesn't believe we have that option. I most certainly think we do: Dirk.

[Murphy3]

trust me bayliss, i agree with what you're saying about dirk being virtually unguardable one on one...and i could have went on to say that dirk's so unguardable because of his ability to hit the outside shot, the mid range shot..drive, and post up.
but, ..i didn't want to list everything
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]
robert horry has given him some fits..but that probably had more to do with dirk having an off night or two.
for much of his first 4 years, dirk tore up horry and the lakers...

[kg_veteran]

<< Dirk should easily have the ball in his hands late in games because there is not a single player in the league today that can &quot;stop&quot; him one on one. Robert Horry gives him fits. But if you put the ball in his hands consistently Dirk **will score**. Much the same way Kobe scores on the so called &quot;Kobe stoppers.&quot;

And if there isn't a single person that guard him one on one then that obviously means two choices: either let Dirk burn you or double him. Doubling him means that there is a good shooter open (usually Nash or Fin), or a big man open underneath (Raef/Najera lately). Dirk has shown the last month that he can find those people consistently. >>



Another way of putting it is that Dirk is the biggest mismatch for the other team that the Mavs put out on the floor every night, regardless of who's guarding him. One of my friends used to say that the closest thing to automatic was Kevin McHale. Well, Dirk is by far the closest thing to automatic that the Mavericks have, as these stats indicate. Dirk has shown the ability to hit the shot, make the free throws, or find the open man (recently). The more repetition he has, the better he'll get at the latter.

Dirk will not win every single close game for us. No player can do that for their team. But Dirk will give the Mavericks the BEST CHANCE to win in close games, as long as he touches the ball.

[LRB]

<< someone said that...ideally, the shots should be distributed evenly between the big three and nve..something like that. >>



Murphy that was me, but if you had read the rest of what I wrote you would have seen that I advocate putting the ball into Dirk's hands in the low post. Just IMO the other teams will start to double Dirk a good bit and the others will be finding open shots for Dirk to pass out to them. That's the ideally evenly distributed shots. We force teams to pickt their poision. Ether guard Dirk one on one and let him score most of the time or double him and give one of our good shooters a wide open look.

That's great team ball IMO. I hope that we will play more of that instead of this 4 corner one on one crap that Nellie likes to run. Sure we go to Dirk, but in the low post and in hopes of forcing a double team. If no double comes then let the big clydesdale abuse them.