Trust the Process - Mavs Edition

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by sefant77

No, if you pick so high you always go BPA overall and not who is going to be the best offensive player.

Smith has go to guy potential.

I may only be saying this because you whined about my Mikal Bridges talk, but that is exactly what you get with Bridges. Not a star scorer, but a very competent one combined with a top defensive player in the NCAA capable of Marion-level defense in a league that is guard-forward and wing-dominant.

But yeah, you go with the most impactful player and not just the best scorer. Doncic may be able to do both. Ayton will be like Smith-- he'll bring the offense and has the physical skills to potentially make an impact on defense. Bagley and Porter haven't shown much of anything in the way of defense. Jackson, Bridges, Bamba, and Carter all provide defense.

[sefant77]

Dont take it so personal, i get that you really like Mikal and yeah maybe a lot of ppl (including me) eat crow in a few years when he is a Mini-Kawhi. But for me (and a lot of others) his ceiling is more Robert Covington...

But i just dont see the point of talking about a player all the time that we are for sure not going to draft anyway. Thats all...

For me is BPA always the highest ceiling guy, even if it increased the risk. But we are not going anyway without taking some risk. Thats why im right now on the Bamba>Porter train. Including the trust in DSJ to become a 24 PPG scorer...

[sefant77]

-

[saclare]

I want in on sefant77's crystal ball... how do you know the Mavs aren't considering him at 5? We don't, and can't assume, so it is relevant to discuss Bridges, or at least put him in the bucket of players than can go 5-8 on draft night.

Also, while the Covington comparison isn't bad, I'd say Bridges is coming in as more of a polished defender and more athleticism/quickness to guard the 2-3 spots. Couldn't find much in the way of length for both. Covington was leaned on to score more for MTS than Bridges was for Villanova. Bridges floor is a solid 3-D guy who can potentially blossom into a secondary scorer, but likely to remain closer to a Wes Matthews (with more size/length, a better contract) type offensively.

[SMC0007]

Bridges looks faster and more explosive than Covington to me. I still like a few others over him at 5.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Bridges looks faster and more explosive than Covington to me. I still like a few others over him at 5.

Bridges and Carter Jr are of the same high floor, low ceiling ilk, but you're guaranteed a really good player either way which isn't something to sniff at.

The only reason Carter is ranked higher is because of his position. Despite the league going smaller, quality big men still hold the same high price as always.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by saclare

I want in on sefant77's crystal ball... how do you know the Mavs aren't considering him at 5? We don't, and can't assume, so it is relevant to discuss Bridges, or at least put him in the bucket of players than can go 5-8 on draft night.

Its like two weeks until the draft and i didnt see any serious mock in the past weeks that put him anywhere near the top-5. Most of them have (and always had) him around #9 for the Knicks...

But every mock pretty much has since weeks a clear top-5 with the Porter wildcard...

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Bridges looks faster and more explosive than Covington to me. I still like a few others over him at 5.

Yeah, Mikal has more juice than Covington but also not as strong. I see a lot of Otto Porter in him with more offensive upside- which isn't a bad thing. Otto Porter is a damn good player. But obviously we want something closer to a star at #5 with this strong draft class.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Bridges and Carter Jr are of the same high floor, low ceiling ilk, but you're guaranteed a really good player either way which isn't something to sniff at.

The only reason Carter is ranked higher is because of his position. Despite the league going smaller, quality big men still hold the same high price as always.

I think the bigger reason might be that Mikal is almost 3 years older than Carter. He's 2-3 years older than all these guys which is why I'm not as high on him as others. I mean to put it in perspective, a year ago he was still older than all these guys are now and he was starting and playing a hair under 30mins a game and was scoring a hair under 10ppg. Is he even getting drafted in the 2nd round last year? If so I can't imagine he's drafted in the top 45 picks. He almost doubled his scoring as an upperclassman with a year of starting under his belt and another year as a freshman when he was a rotational player. Maybe he's a late bloomer but I'm just very wary of upperclassmen, especially in the top 10, double especially in the top 5, and triple especially in a loaded class in the top 5.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Bridges and Carter Jr are of the same high floor, low ceiling ilk, but you're guaranteed a really good player either way which isn't something to sniff at.

The only reason Carter is ranked higher is because of his position. Despite the league going smaller, quality big men still hold the same high price as always.

I wouldn't bet my own money that the league keeps it's steep trend of smaller bigs. Teams will always milk the most out of the 5 position, if they can shoot 3's great, but if a few centers becomes a hybrid version of Shaq, no one will be prepared and the trend will shift to accommodate. It doesn't matter what the centers are this year, I'm more interested in being prepared for anything going forward.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I wouldn't bet my own money that the league keeps it's steep trend of smaller bigs.

I think the key factor is here "mobile big". Either you have to be absolut dominant (Davis, Embiid etc) or you have to be mobile enough (Gobert etc).

With all the switching etc its right now the most important factor for a 5. Not to get constantly burned at the perimeter by smaller guys. Thats why i have a good feeling with Bamba, he is quick enough to recover and has the wingspan to block a lot of layups from behind even after getting burned at the perimeter

[Luke]

Originally Posted by saclare

Why are we comparing Bamba to Noel?

Bamba is 7'0" and 225 lbs, with a 7'9'' wingspan and 9'6'' standing reach.

Noel was 6'11" and 201 lbs, with a 7'4" wingspan and 9'1.5" standing reach.

Not to mention the intangibles that are through the roof with Bamba, and ever missing from Noel. Bamba has a good shot that he is developing further, including 3 pointers. I think the post above with the 3/4 split shows you he can move just fine. Also, Noel coming out played on a loaded Kentucky team. Bamba played on an ass Texas team. I really think we are just scratching the surface what Bamba can do.

Edit: reports of Bamba already adding good weight, too...

Why? Because both are rail thin. Both have limited offensive games... Both are extremely athletic. Both are guilty with not always putting in a ton of effort on the court. I just can't imagine why anyone would compare the two.

Yes, I've seen Bamba shoot the three. I like him and I am a huge Horns fan. I think he'll be better than Noel because I can see him developing a little more offensively. But I don't know that I like him enough to pick him with the 5 pick.

[sefant77]

Bamba has actually a brain. And work ethic.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Bamba has actually a brain. And work ethic.

Agreed, but that doesn't mean he always plays hard. He definitely lapses into inactivity at times. He also absolutely does not have a jumpshot-- at least a developed one. His eFG% on shots outside of 5' is pretty terrible and nowhere near enough to be considered a jumpshooter. He absolutely took some 15 footers and 30 footers, but that's not really his game. It might be in the future, but for now he's not terribly ready to come in raining threes.



Bamba is sane, personable/charismatic, intelligent, rebounds better, but otherwise it's hard to say that he's a lot better than Noel at anything else.

Admittedly, that's a lot. It earned Noel a 6th pick overall based on his athleticism and potential alone and a sane Noel should go higher. Still, Noel is a very similar player in terms of role and potential.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

BBIQ is as important as anything though and the reason Javale McGee is Javale McGee. Noel with a high IQ would be a tremendously impactful player. As it is, he is a guy who takes way too make risks on defense to the detriment of his team and development.

[Scoobay]

So Bamba putting in work at this stage is a good sign... if you believe he has the work ethic to keep improving/developing and stick with it, then IMO he's worth it. If you think he's like Noel in the sense of eating hotdogs and mailing it in, then I get that he's probably not worth it. Time will tell.

The knocks on him are stuff he can work on - might not show up very good as a rookie or even 2-3 years into his career. Big If - If he works on it he has the potential and athleticism to get there in terms of developing an outside shot and/or a post up game.

Some of his pluses are not teachable - his length and reach! He also has some semblance of defensive know-how. For a 19 yo I think it was pretty impressive that he often didn't jump on fakes, etc. I think that'll only get better.

[Bryan_Wilson]

I don't mind some comparisons to Noel as it pertains to Noel 4-5 years ago. The problem with Noel is he hasn't gotten better in 5 years, he's the exact same player and the effort wasn't there in a year he wanted to supposedly prove he's a max player. And his competition was Dwight freaking Powell and Salah Mejri. That's a huge difference than a kid in college who is forced to be there thanks to the 1 and done bs. Ben Simmons was labeled as a guy who coasted and didn't give his all for a shit lsu team. IIRC people were actually making a case that he shouldn't go number 1 because lsu didn't make the tournament.

Also there is a huge difference between the 2 in interviews. I seriously think teams will fall in love with Bamba in interviews. He is very intelligent sounding, articulates his words well, and has well thought out responses to everything.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

BBIQ is as important as anything though and the reason Javale McGee is Javale McGee. Noel with a high IQ would be a tremendously impactful player. As it is, he is a guy who takes way too make risks on defense to the detriment of his team and development.

BBIQ is an important trait....especially playing with Carlisle.

Another important trait is competitiveness. Bamba is fast, long ws, tall, athletic and smart. If he is a fierce competitor he could become something very special.
That might be my only concern with him now.

[BPo001]

Bamba's shot is looking pretty good. He's been working with the same guy Tatum worked with last summer that helped him shoot 40% from deep this year.

https://youtu.be/6EOrdk_H2-s

[sefant77]

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by BPo001

Bamba's shot is looking pretty good. He's been working with the same guy Tatum worked with last summer that helped him shoot 40% from deep this year.

https://youtu.be/6EOrdk_H2-s

So you’re saying he goes #3

[sefant77]

Imagine Bamba spending his first few summers in germany with Holger...

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

So you’re saying he goes #3

Bamba/Collins would be a better situation than Bagley/Collins or Jackson/Collins imo so I could see Atlanta taking Bamba.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by rimrocker

Bamba/Collins would be a better situation than Bagley/Collins or Jackson/Collins imo so I could see Atlanta taking Bamba.

Not really. Collins plays like a center in a PF body, he doesnt really have range and his offense is more the PnR and putbacks. Moving him to center with "just" 6-9 or 6-10 shouldnt be a problem and with Bagley they wouldnt get destroyed at the boards anyway

SF Prince
PF Bagley
C Collins

So out of Bagley/JJJ/Bamba Bagley is the best fit. Or a healthy Porter.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by rimrocker

Bamba/Collins would be a better situation than Bagley/Collins or Jackson/Collins imo so I could see Atlanta taking Bamba.

Orrrrr they draft “BPA” in Bagley

Make Collins a SF, fail, make him a bench player and then trade him to us for two second rounders

More of a Nets or Magic move but one can hope

[DevinHarriswillstart]

If Bamba can shoot in the NBA, then it's game over. Ain't nobody blockin' that shot.

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Imagine Bamba spending his first few summers in germany with Holger...

I feel like we say that with a lot of players, but has Holger ever worked with anyone besides Dirk during the summer?

[Scoobay]

Originally Posted by BPo001

I feel like we say that with a lot of players, but has Holger ever worked with anyone besides Dirk during the summer?

Dirk is nearing the end of his run as a player and (hopefully) will soon start his run as a lifetime Mavs coach/analyst/whatever he wants to do for the Mavs. Maybe this will free Holger up for some sessions, especially if said player is willing to put the work in.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by BPo001

I feel like we say that with a lot of players, but has Holger ever worked with anyone besides Dirk during the summer?

Holger to anyone not named Dirk.

[spreedom]

I vaguely remember hearing about Holger hanging out with Rondo for at least one brief session in 2015. Otherwise, I don't see any real evidence that he's worked with anyone but Dirk. I wouldn't draft anyone with any sort of contingency on that guy needing to work with Holger to be worthy of being picked by us.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I vaguely remember hearing about Holger hanging out with Rondo for at least one brief session in 2015. Otherwise, I don't see any real evidence that he's worked with anyone but Dirk. I wouldn't draft anyone with any sort of contingency on that guy needing to work with Holger to be worthy of being picked by us.

Yeah but now they can just work with Dirk

[Luke]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

I don't mind some comparisons to Noel as it pertains to Noel 4-5 years ago. The problem with Noel is he hasn't gotten better in 5 years, he's the exact same player and the effort wasn't there in a year he wanted to supposedly prove he's a max player. And his competition was Dwight freaking Powell and Salah Mejri. That's a huge difference than a kid in college who is forced to be there thanks to the 1 and done bs. Ben Simmons was labeled as a guy who coasted and didn't give his all for a shit lsu team. IIRC people were actually making a case that he shouldn't go number 1 because lsu didn't make the tournament.

Also there is a huge difference between the 2 in interviews. I seriously think teams will fall in love with Bamba in interviews. He is very intelligent sounding, articulates his words well, and has well thought out responses to everything.

I don't think there's much of a chance that Bamba has a worse pro career than Noel. I do have my doubts about taking him with the #5 pick though because of those similarities between the two. That isn't to say he won't improve. I full expect him to improve...it's just a matter of how much. Can he be a 16-17 PPG scorer? Do you want to go that route or go the route of bringing in someone that you think could be a game changer on the offensive end of the ball? The Mavs desperately need that..but, well, they desperately need alot of things or they wouldn't be picking #5.

[EricaLubarsky]

If Bamba scores 16-17, then I’d give Smith all the credit

[saclare]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Agreed, but that doesn't mean he always plays hard. He definitely lapses into inactivity at times. He also absolutely does not have a jumpshot-- at least a developed one. His eFG% on shots outside of 5' is pretty terrible and nowhere near enough to be considered a jumpshooter. He absolutely took some 15 footers and 30 footers, but that's not really his game. It might be in the future, but for now he's not terribly ready to come in raining threes.



Bamba is sane, personable/charismatic, intelligent, rebounds better, but otherwise it's hard to say that he's a lot better than Noel at anything else.

Admittedly, that's a lot. It earned Noel a 6th pick overall based on his athleticism and potential alone and a sane Noel should go higher. Still, Noel is a very similar player in terms of role and potential.

Noel was in consideration for the #1 pick if I recall prior to his injury/injury history. That draft was garbage compared to this one

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Luke

Why? Because both are rail thin. Both have limited offensive games... Both are extremely athletic. Both are guilty with not always putting in a ton of effort on the court. I just can't imagine why anyone would compare the two.

Yes, I've seen Bamba shoot the three. I like him and I am a huge Horns fan. I think he'll be better than Noel because I can see him developing a little more offensively. But I don't know that I like him enough to pick him with the 5 pick.

I didn't know 25 lbs difference was comparable or someone would use to call them both rail thin...not to mention he's already put on more weight. Noel has NEVER been able to contain the bigger guys and gets bullied around. I think Bamba realizes he needs size to be versatile enough on defense, outside and in.

The mental game and presence of Bamba is already miles better than Noel, and the latter is 4+ years a veteran. In addition, Bamba has a developing shot, something Noel has never had.

I get some of the similarities. I just don't think it is as cut and dry as some have made it to be.

[Luke]

Originally Posted by saclare

I didn't know 25 lbs difference was comparable or someone would use to call them both rail thin...not to mention he's already put on more weight. Noel has NEVER been able to contain the bigger guys and gets bullied around. I think Bamba realizes he needs size to be versatile enough on defense, outside and in.

The mental game and presence of Bamba is already miles better than Noel, and the latter is 4+ years a veteran. In addition, Bamba has a developing shot, something Noel has never had.

I get some of the similarities. I just don't think it is as cut and dry as some have made it to be.

They have similarities.. Again, I fully expect Bamba to improve. But how much? I don't expect Bamba to develop into a great offensive player. I think he'll be a 13-18 ppg type guy while being efficient. I'm not knocking Bamba here. I like Bamba and I think he'll be a really good professional basketball player. BUT, with the 5th pick, you have to make a decision about what type of need you're going to try to fill. Are you going to draft a guy that could be really good on one end and probably ok to good on the other end or do you want a guy that you believe can develop into a dominant offensive player? That's what the Mavs will be weighing with the 5th overall pick. They desperately need a dominant offensive force. But, they obviously desperately need defensive/rebounding help as well.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Luke

I don't think there's much of a chance that Bamba has a worse pro career than Noel. I do have my doubts about taking him with the #5 pick though because of those similarities between the two. That isn't to say he won't improve. I full expect him to improve...it's just a matter of how much. Can he be a 16-17 PPG scorer? Do you want to go that route or go the route of bringing in someone that you think could be a game changer on the offensive end of the ball? The Mavs desperately need that..but, well, they desperately need alot of things or they wouldn't be picking #5.

Who do you propose at #5 then, or what is your idea/scenario?

Edit: genuine question, not trying to be aggressive in any way.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Luke

They have similarities.. Again, I fully expect Bamba to improve. But how much? I don't expect Bamba to develop into a great offensive player. I think he'll be a 13-18 ppg type guy while being efficient. I'm not knocking Bamba here. I like Bamba and I think he'll be a really good professional basketball player. BUT, with the 5th pick, you have to make a decision about what type of need you're going to try to fill. Are you going to draft a guy that could be really good on one end and probably ok to good on the other end or do you want a guy that you believe can develop into a dominant offensive player? That's what the Mavs will be weighing with the 5th overall pick. They desperately need a dominant offensive force. But, they obviously desperately need defensive/rebounding help as well.

Bamba would be an absolute STUD if averaged 13-18 PPG... Personally, I'm expecting his upside to be closer to 12-14 PPG, with perennial All-NBA Defense honors for the duration of his career... I mean, I don't think any of us would be mad if he ended up being as good as Tyson Chandler, and Ty never topped 12 PPG in a single season.

You're not drafting Bamba to go HAM on offense, you're drafting him to anchor your defense and grab boards. That's what he do... Everything else is gravy.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Bamba would be an absolute STUD if averaged 13-18 PPG... Personally, I'm expecting his upside to be closer to 12-14 PPG, with perennial All-NBA Defense honors for the duration of his career... I mean, I don't think any of us would be mad if he ended up being as good as Tyson Chandler, and Ty never topped 12 PPG in a single season.

You're not drafting Bamba to go HAM on offense, you're drafting him to anchor your defense and grab boards. That's what he do... Everything else is gravy.

There is only 1 TY. Without him, no way we have our trophy.

13ppg and 18ppg is a huge difference lol. IMO, 13ppg is no mans land for a guy like Bamba. He's got too much potential to get stuck there unless he is an unbelievable defensive and rebounding force. I'm hoping for more offensive potential from whoever we get at 5 even if it takes a cpl years to realize it.

[Luke]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

There is only 1 TY. Without him, no way we have our trophy.

13ppg and 18ppg is a huge difference lol. IMO, 13ppg is no mans land for a guy like Bamba. He's got too much potential to get stuck there unless he is an unbelievable defensive and rebounding force. I'm hoping for more offensive potential from whoever we get at 5 even if it takes a cpl years to realize it.

I think that's what we're looking at with Bamba... Low end 13.. high end 18. There's a huge difference between the two. But with a guy that isn't developed offensively but is athletic and has some potential, wouldn't you expect to have a wide range? I guess he could be an absolute bust and be a 5 ppg type guy that's logging 15 minutes a game. But I don't see that.

And we are talking about apples and oranges a bit. I don't know what the league average in points per game is now compared to back in 2011, but I do know that every team scored 100 a game but 2. I'd say that more than half in 2011 were averaging fewer than 100 per game. It's a bit of a different league with more points to go around.

And with Bamba, we are talking about someone that has at least some sort of an outside shot unlike Tyson Chandler.