Predict the Mavs' record for the 2018-2019 season

[Bryan_Wilson]

15 of our first 22 games are against playoff teams last year + lebron lakers. With so many new players playing high mins we have to assume the chemistry will not be there early. If we had an easier schedule to start off with to get time to gel I would say we could maybe push the 8th-9th(optimistically) seed but with this schedule I really think we could be in too big of a hole early to get more than 35-38 wins. Which would still be a nice jump from 24 wins.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

15 of our first 22 games are against playoff teams last year + lebron lakers. With so many new players playing high mins we have to assume the chemistry will not be there early. If we had an easier schedule to start off with to get time to gel I would say we could maybe push the 8th-9th(optimistically) seed but with this schedule I really think we could be in too big of a hole early to get more than 35-38 wins. Which would still be a nice jump from 24 wins.

We can't make excuses every season about a tough schedule though. At some point, you have to just own it and win. The west will never be easy in the foreseeable future so the schedule will never be easy. Suck it up and win.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

We can't make excuses every season about a tough schedule though. At some point, you have to just own it and win. The west will never be easy in the foreseeable future so the schedule will never be easy. Suck it up and win.

Well I agree about the excuses but at the same time 15 of your first 22 games when you have 2 maybe 3 new starters and 5 or so different high minute rotation pieces is not really an excuse to me. I'm not saying the schedule as a whole is necessarily difficult but the start of it is and I was just stating that we could be in a tough spot record wise considering we likely will be experimenting with rotations for most of if not all of the 22 game stretch. I'm was more going for, this could be a rough start, and our win pace might look more like 25-30 wins after that tough stretch. My prediction was 35-39 so this didn't change it, just saying the start could be tough. It did however eliminate my rose colored playoff thought, I don't see that happening now since I don't see us coming out of the gate great with this schedule.

[SMC0007]

The optimist in me has a good feeling about what DAJ will do for games that we have been losing late because of a severe lack of defense and rebounding. The amount of games lost by 7 pts or less is a few stops and boards away. If/When we get a few more of those it leads to easier offense and now we have one more guy in Doncic who can create and can see all of the floor really well to help produce good looks.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

The optimist in me has a good feeling about what DAJ will do for games that we have been losing late because of a severe lack of defense and rebounding. The amount of games lost by 7 pts or less is a few stops and boards away. If/When we get a few more of those it leads to easier offense and now we have one more guy in Doncic who can create and can see all of the floor really well to help produce good looks.

Mavs had a differential of only -3.1. For a team that was 3rd worst in the league, that is unprecedented.

For reference
Suns -9.4
Bulls -7.1
Kings -7.0
Grizz -6.4
Hawks -5.4
Magic -4.8
Brooklyn -3.7
Knicks -3.5
Mavs -3.1

Mavs lost a LOT of games by only a couple of points. Adding Doncic and Jordan-- two guys who should have a positive impact should shove that even further positive.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Mavs had a differential of only -3.1. For a team that was 3rd worst in the league, that is unprecedented.

For reference
Suns -9.4
Bulls -7.1
Kings -7.0
Grizz -6.4
Hawks -5.4
Magic -4.8
Brooklyn -3.7
Knicks -3.5
Mavs -3.1

Mavs lost a LOT of games by only a couple of points. Adding Doncic and Jordan-- two guys who should have a positive impact should shove that even further positive.

No doubt. We should be able to keep more pressure on teams from the jump now and not end up in such a large hole.

I can't bring myself to say we will contend for a playoff spot but if these things happen we will:

-Powell plays like he did late season and has improved further.
-DAJ locks down tons of boards and brings that Chandler edge.
-Doncic plays with confidence and produces like he did for RM.
-DSJ raises his 3pt%, FT% and Assits/game
-WES gets back to what he does best.
-Barnes boosts his 3pt% and add a few more assists.

The only concern I have regarding Doncic is slight, I don't want to see him taking bad shots. Harden-like step back 3s. If it's late in the possession, fine but I want him attacking and creating to establish some respect from the league and refs. There is no easy way to earn that aside from putting your head down and going at it.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I can't bring myself to say we will contend for a playoff spot but if these things happen we will:

-Powell plays like he did late season and has improved further.
-DAJ locks down tons of boards and brings that Chandler edge.
-Doncic plays with confidence and produces like he did for RM.
-DSJ raises his 3pt%, FT% and Assits/game
-WES gets back to what he does best.
-Barnes boosts his 3pt% and add a few more assists.

I'd say all of those things are likely to happen with Doncic playing extremely well being the least likely of a bunch of fairly likely predictions. Then again I thought Noel would have worked out and I predicted we'd be a hair of .500 last year. That prediction obviously didn't work out.

The only concern I have regarding Doncic is slight, I don't want to see him taking bad shots. Harden-like step back 3s. If it's late in the possession, fine but I want him attacking and creating to establish some respect from the league and refs. There is no easy way to earn that aside from putting your head down and going at it.

Doncic's efficiency is going to be a huge deal that either holds him back from being truly elite or propels him to superstardom. I know Rick and the whole team will be working with him on mechanics, shot selection, etc., but I see that as one of the biggest things Doncic will need to improve. I want him to keep his confidence while improving his efficiency and consistency.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

-Powell plays like he did late season and has improved further.

No reason to think it won't. His PER, offensive winshare, defensive win share, and overall win share has gone up every single year

-DAJ locks down tons of boards and brings that Chandler edge.

No reason to think he won't unless there is a personality conflict like Noel. Dude was 1st in the league in rebounding rate and has been for many years. 4th in offensive rebound rate and 1st in defensive rebound rate. Dude is a beast rebounding the ball and brings good passion. His defense is also solid despite not blocking shots. He was 25th in the league in defensive win shares (8th among centers)

-Doncic plays with confidence and produces like he did for RM.

This is the biggest maybe. I personally think Doncic is the real deal, but he may shoot 30% from the field and 20% from three. He may prove me wrong, but the NBA is a tough league and he already didnt have the efficiency numbers in Europe. He'll be a star in time and will bring the confidence in spades, but his scoring efficiency will be low this year.

-DSJ raises his 3pt%, FT% and Assits/game

One can only hope. His per36 of 18pts, 5reb, 6ast is pretty solid, but the biggest thing he needs to improve is his shooting numbers. I can see his assists go down with a secondary ballhandler/creator, but I'd like to see his shooting numbers and A/TO improve. I'm not super worried about APG. I'm also worried about how efficiently he'll play off the ball. Dude loves to have the ball and hasn't shown a lot of anything when it's not in his hands.

-WES gets back to what he does best.

What Wes does best is shoot assisted jumpers. When receiving a pass from Smith or Barea, he shot over 40% from three. I don't expect him to be any better shooting it or defending it, but if he can get more catch-and-shoot threes, he should have a higher % from three.

His eFG when creating his own offense was terrible and there is no complete measure that includes TOs, but when we asked him to be Dwyane Wade and create his own offense, his numbers were absolutely terrible. I'd love it if he only shot stationary shots or cuts for an assisted layup this year.

-Barnes boosts his 3pt% and add a few more assists.

that would be great. He just shot 43% from three in Africa and he's capable of 40% (the year he did, he shot 89% of his threes assisted). He's just better shooting threes on the catch-and-shoot. I'm also interested in the secondary drive that will hopefully open up when Doncic and Smith create defensive disruptions.

[dirt_dobber]

Dang EL - you have been bringing it all NBA summer - A+

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

No reason to think it won't. His PER, offensive winshare, defensive win share, and overall win share has gone up every single year

No reason to think he won't unless there is a personality conflict like Noel. Dude was 1st in the league in rebounding rate and has been for many years. 4th in offensive rebound rate and 1st in defensive rebound rate. Dude is a beast rebounding the ball and brings good passion. His defense is also solid despite not blocking shots. He was 25th in the league in defensive win shares (8th among centers)


This is the biggest maybe. I personally think Doncic is the real deal, but he may shoot 30% from the field and 20% from three. He may prove me wrong, but the NBA is a tough league and he already didnt have the efficiency numbers in Europe. He'll be a star in time and will bring the confidence in spades, but his scoring efficiency will be low this year.


One can only hope. His per36 of 18pts, 5reb, 6ast is pretty solid, but the biggest thing he needs to improve is his shooting numbers. I can see his assists go down with a secondary ballhandler/creator, but I'd like to see his shooting numbers and A/TO improve. I'm not super worried about APG. I'm also worried about how efficiently he'll play off the ball. Dude loves to have the ball and hasn't shown a lot of anything when it's not in his hands.


What Wes does best is shoot assisted jumpers. When receiving a pass from Smith or Barea, he shot over 40% from three. I don't expect him to be any better shooting it or defending it, but if he can get more catch-and-shoot threes, he should have a higher % from three.

His eFG when creating his own offense was terrible and there is no complete measure that includes TOs, but when we asked him to be Dwyane Wade and create his own offense, his numbers were absolutely terrible. I'd love it if he only shot stationary shots or cuts for an assisted layup this year.


that would be great. He just shot 43% from three in Africa and he's capable of 40% (the year he did, he shot 89% of his threes assisted). He's just better shooting threes on the catch-and-shoot. I'm also interested in the secondary drive that will hopefully open up when Doncic and Smith create defensive disruptions.

The biggest given is DAJ and the biggest questions are DSJ and Luka.

My perfect scenario would be that Powell plays so well that he pushes his way into the SLU. Like undeniably...Which means his mid-range and 3% continues upward! Not a huge deal but the days of leaning on Dirk and having him carry the weight are gone. What we get from him is pure gravy.

Until (if) then, I am eager to see if Rick runs Barnes out at the 4 since DAJ will hog up plenty of boards. Barnes had 11 boards for team africa so maybe that will continue trending too.

Seeing several different SLU's in the first month is expected, unless we surprisingly come out of the gates hot.

[jayC]

im going to say 45 wins. I heard our win differential was closer to 33 games. DeAndre is huge upgrade at center not to mention maybe the best young player in the Draft Luca Donic. Odds on favorite to win the rookie of the year.

[EricaLubarsky]

https://youtu.be/yS6iaGjvdIM