Judge for yourself - The history of the 29th pick - Your opinions are solicited

[OutletPass]

I'll leave it to everyone to make their own judgments as to whether the #29 picks in the draft have panned out....it's sobering to me.

2002 - Dan Dickau
2001 - Tony Parker
2000 - Mark Madsen
1999 - Leon Smith
1998 - Nazr Mohammed
1997 - Keith Booth
1996 - Travis Knight
1995 - Cory Alexander
1994 - Antonio Lang
1993 - Sherron Mills
1992 - P.J. Brown
1991 - George Ackles
1990 - Toni Kukoc
1989 - Dyron Nix
1988 - Vinny Del Negro
1987 - Lester Fonville
1986 - Johnny Newman
1985 - Mike Brittain
1984 - Stuart Gray
1983 - Larry Micheaux
1982 - Scott Hastings
1981 - Eddie Johnson
1980 - Louis Orr

I've got Parker, P.J. Brown, Kukoc and possibly Mohammed as guys who had some sort of impact on their team...and the first 3 as guys who made an impact in the league.

That's 3 of 23 with the jury still out on Dickau and Madsen....

Seriously, who the hell are the rest of these guys...anyone want to go to war with any of the rest of them. Leon Smith, Keith Booth, Antonio "Clang" Lang, Sherron Mills, George Ackles, Dyron Nix, Lester Fonville....sheeesh.

Realistically, what can we expect out of Howard given these odds...let's all sober up a bit and consider history. I've given him a conditional B...being hopeful. But the odds are not exactly in our favor.

[mavsfanforever]

TP, Kukoc, PJ and I would also like to add newman.

Nazr spends most of the time on the IL.

Leon Smith is the buggest bust out of all though.

[Tony tha Mavs fan]

Well some Drafts are deeper than others. i'm not saying this was the deepest draft ever, but some good players could pass through the cracks and have solid NBA careers after being drafted that low. I think Howard can give the mavs a solid contribution, just from his college stats alone.

[Mavs_fun_fan]

Well, that certainly puts things in perspective doesn't it. Only thing I can say is that I think J HO (love that nickname) will be a player. All in all makes me glad Nellie went after him and not some reach as he has done in the past. Leon Smith, jeez truely the bottom of the barrel, just think if it weren't for all the names on that list it would be total humiliation.

That makes me wonder who was responsible for scouting Leon Smith and if he is still with the Mavericks? Does anyone know?

[Nash13]

Are you kidding? Eddie Johnson played pretty well for Houston back in the mid-90s.

Cory Alexander is a good back up guard for New Orleans, and Vinny Del Negro was an ok player for the Spurs.

[OutletPass]

Sorry 13, but that would be Courtney Alexander in NO, not Cory Alexander.

And Eddie played for 7 teams during his career...not exactly a big positive. And never played in an All Star game.

If you like Del Negro...so be it.

I posted this just to show the very long odds...

Add Eddie J. and that's 4 of 23.
Meaning a 17.39 % chance.

Let's all hope that he turns out to be in that 17.39 %...but let's do be realistic.

[Evilmav2]

And Eddie played for 7 teams during his career...not exactly a big positive.

That was a long, long career though... I think EJ was a pretty darned good pick for a guy taken last in the first...

[Evilmav2]

Good point though about the odds stacked against an end-o-the-draft guy being a keeper. I will just have to hope that the excessive depth of this (probably) last, pre-20 yr. age limit draft will insulate us against history...

I think J. Howard was a pretty good pick, I just think that we may have dropped the ball in drafting for need instead of gambling to take the best possible talent for the future (Lampe)...

[MFFL]

Good post OP - the odds are against Howard being a contributing player in the league let alone for the Mavericks.

I think in 5 years we will regret the failure to draft Lampe just as surely as we regret not drafting Malone.

[FilthyFinMavs]

Well with the recent years the odds aren't necessarily against him. Dickau is still a rookie in this league and well Parker he was a decent player. All he did was help bring his team to a championship at the age of 21 years old. I think the history of the 29th pick is a innaccurate way to judge how a player will be. Why not pick the 3rd pick of the draft. I'm sure there are lots of busts there. Howard was a late pick no doubt but in recent years there weren't over 16 euro's to go in the draft which by the way was a record this year.

[aexchange]

Originally posted by: MFFL
Good post OP - the odds are against Howard being a contributing player in the league let alone for the Mavericks.

I think in 5 years we will regret the failure to draft Lampe just as surely as we regret not drafting Malone.

i think if the mavs had the first choice in the second round as opposed to the last choice in the first round, you'd see them go in a different direction. with the restraints on the salary cap, i just think the mavs couldnt afford to wait 3 years for a player to come over and play for the mavs.

i tend to give them more leeway because of this.

[Chiwas]

OP, MFFL: You're killing my hopes, guys, but you sound reasonable [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-sad.gif[/img].

HOPE YOU'RE WRONG. I know that also you want that Howard be another exception for history, but certainly the odds are not good.

One pro, among others, Nelson knew him and wanted him.

One con, among others, Raef, Popeye and Rigamaybe, in the last roster, were also hyped by Nelson.

NONONONONONONO

This time has to be true.

[FilthyFinMavs]

Chiwas, none of those guys were 6'6 with a 7'2 in wing span. There's hope. Just think of Arenas, Rashard Lewis, Nick Van Exel, Ginobilli, Steven Jackson, Tony Parker, Cuttino Mobley, and Eddie Najera when you think of late picks in the draft.

[mattyd]

Do we really have to mention Leon Smith on this board?[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-tongue.gif[/img]

[MFFL]

Originally posted by: aexchange

i think if the mavs had the first choice in the second round as opposed to the last choice in the first round, you'd see them go in a different direction. with the restraints on the salary cap, i just think the mavs couldnt afford to wait 3 years for a player to come over and play for the mavs.

i tend to give them more leeway because of this.

The salary cap has nothing to do with the draft - all players are on a rookie scale from the time they SIGN a contract, not from when they are drafted.

[aexchange]

Originally posted by: MFFL

The salary cap has nothing to do with the draft - all players are on a rookie scale from the time they SIGN a contract, not from when they are drafted.

actually i am fairly sure you're incorrect on this.

second round picks are not constrained by a rookie scale, therefore, the knicks can offer lampe as much as they can afford under their salary cap.

[superheadcat]

Originally posted by: MFFL
Good post OP - the odds are against Howard being a contributing player in the league let alone for the Mavericks.

I think in 5 years we will regret the failure to draft Lampe just as surely as we regret not drafting Malone.

u have some interesting logic.
if the odds are against howard, why do you think lampe can defy the odds of a 30th pick "being a contributing player in the league let alone for the mavericks"?

[OutletPass]

Originally posted by FFM:

I think the history of the 29th pick is a innaccurate way to judge how a player will be. Why not pick the 3rd pick of the draft.

I used the 29th pick because that's where we picked this year. I thought that was a logical starting point. The real logic is that between the #3 (that you suggest) and the 29th...there's a severe depletion of the talent pool....over 25 players are NOT going to be available at the 29 (who were available at the #3)

Here are some of the #3 picks....
Kevin McHale
Buck Williams
Dominique Wilkins
Michael Jordan
Sean Elliott
Penny Hardaway
Grant Hill
Jerry Stackhouse
Shareef Abdur Rahim
Chauncey Billups
Raef
Baron Davis
Darius Miles
Pau Gasol
Mike Dunleavy


That's one HELL of a lot of more "successes" and All Stars than at the 29.

You'll have your "busts" at any pick...granted...there are some Benoit Benjamins, Chris Washburns, Billy Owens and Dennis Hopsons that were picked at #3....you'll even have a Christian Laettner or a Rodney McCray.. but I count 12 who have already had an impact here ..with the jury still out on Raef, Dunleavy and Dmiles. That's 12 of 23...a MUCH better percentage. Over 50%. And in that group, you have some of the best players of the past 20 years...I don't think anyone can argue with Jordan, McHale, or 'Nique.

And I do agree, the inclusion of International players over the past 5 years have deepened the pool and made it better, but only marginally. And Tony has a point... some drafts are deeper than others. This has been called a pretty deep draft (though I'm not so sure) but I am hoping, as he hopes, that Howard slid through the cracks and that we've got a good one.

So, FFM, Which lineup would you take...the #3's or the #29's ?

Sorry, FFM, but I really don't understand your point, but I'm trying. Obviously, the talent pool at #3 is going to be better than the talent pool at #29....year after year.

I am, in no way, trying to demean Howard OR the Mavs choice of a player. I'm just presenting some history for a little perspective...and for some discussion by our members.

[MFFL]

second round picks are not constrained by a rookie scale, therefore, the knicks can offer lampe as much as they can afford under their salary cap.

By MARC BERMAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BIG THREE:Knick draft choices Maciej Lampe, Mike Sweetney and and Slavko Vranes (left to right) pose outside the Garden yesterday.
- J. Alcorn

June 28, 2003 -- The Knicks believe Maciej Lampe's contract buyout clause with Real Madrid is much to do about nothing and plan to prove it in the next few days with a contract agreement.
The Knicks, Real Madrid and Lampe's agent spoke yesterday to try to hammer out the details to clear the 7-foot small forward to play for the Knicks next season. GM Scott Layden said he wants the 18-year-old with the club "as soon as possible," and Lampe added, "I would like to stay here."

Many believe Lampe's stunning drop out of the lottery and to the Knicks at 30 was due to non-lottery teams not doing their homework on the perimeter-shooting Pole. He played most of last season for Real Madrid's minor league team, but is being called the next Dirk Nowitzki.

The Knicks' European scout Kevin Wilson, who lives in Spain and saw him play 15 times over two seasons, has been told by Spanish doctors he's projected to grow to 7-2. He's a shade under 7-1 now. Layden said Wilson was "bouncing off the wall" as Lampe dropped.

Teams have used as an excuse an NBA e-mail alerting them to Lampe's contract problems. The biggest factor in Lampe's drop, the Knicks believe, is the agent not letting non-lottery teams work him out. Most teams scouted just a couple of his games.

"The Knicks got a break," one lottery-team executive said. "Sometimes teams aren't flexible enough to change their plan. It's a great excuse, the contract, instead of saying we didn't do our homework. Those contract things always get worked out."

Keith Kreiter, Lampe's agent, said, "Teams overanalyzed it and made a mistake. He's got as much upside as anyone after the top three."

When converted, the buyout figure is roughly $2 million. Since the Knicks are permitted under the CBA to pay just $350,000, Lampe would have to foot the rest.

Unless they dip into their $4.9M mid-level exception for free agents, the Knicks can only pay a second-round pick the NBA minimum $400,000. Even though Lampe makes substantially less in Spain, he still would come out losing money.

However, Kreiter said the $2M buyout figure is "very negotiable" and their aim is to reduce the figure by being "creative." The Knicks are willing to play an exhibition game in Madrid and conduct coaching clinics for Real Madrid's staff. As a model, Pau Gasol's buyout clause in Spain was $3M but reduced to less than $1M with agreements to play an exhibition game.

The NBA e-mail that allegedly scared off teams read, "We recently advised teams that we received a letter of clearance from FIBA. The letter of clearance is in error." The e-mail reported a buyout clause exists with Real Madrid.

Mike Sweetney, whom the Knicks took at No. 9 to fill their low-post void, doesn't have the upside of Lampe, but he's read y to fit into the rotation immediately. In fact, Don Chaney declared that if Antonio McDyess isn't ready by training camp, the starting power forward position is open.

Even if Sweetney is undersized at 6-8, he's still two inches taller than Othella Harrington and Clarence Weatherspoon.

"He's undersized a bit, but he's a true four," Chaney said. "This guy is a real post-up player."

[seelenjaeger]

Because it´s always easier to say that "everything would be better IF ..." than to actually support a decision.

[MFFL]

Originally posted by: superheadcat

u have some interesting logic.
if the odds are against howard, why do you think lampe can defy the odds of a 30th pick "being a contributing player in the league let alone for the mavericks"?

Because Lampe was a lottery pick talent not an end of the first round talent. He has a better chance to a star or a contributing player because he has more potential.

[aexchange]

When converted, the buyout figure is roughly $2 million. Since the Knicks are permitted under the CBA to pay just $350,000, Lampe would have to foot the rest.

Unless they dip into their $4.9M mid-level exception for free agents, the Knicks can only pay a second-round pick the NBA minimum $400,000. Even though Lampe makes substantially less in Spain, he still would come out losing money.

nice way of taking it slightly out of context. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] my point was, that if the mavs drafted him at 29, there is no way that lampe could buy at his contract at any kind of rate and manage to make decent money. by going 30 to the knicks, if they want him bad enough, they can dip into their MLE and bring him over. obviously going in the first round to the mavs, defines exactly what they can pay a person.

in addition, the knicks are WAY over the salary cap, but concievably if they were under it, they could offer lampe as much as they wanted until they reached the limit.

[Evilmav2]

I think J. Howard was a good pick, but picking Lampe might have been better. Howard isn't going to be winning the championship for us next year, but Lampe might have helped Dirk do it in six years...

There are no guarantees in the draft, but when a potential #5 talent drops into your lap at the 29 spot, I say scrap your earlier plans and take the gift. I know that it would have been difficult to buy him out from Real Madrid at that spot, but I would rather have seen us pick him and try, than join the rest of the panicked NBA geese gaggle that got scared off of Lampe by phantom e-mails and FIBA rumors...

[superheadcat]

Originally posted by: Evilmav2
I think J. Howard was a good pick, but picking Lampe might have been better. Howard isn't going to be winning the championship for us next year, but Lampe might have helped Dirk do it in six years...

if mavs cannot do anything else during the off-season, i'll agree that lampe is a better choice. but obviously mavs decide to address their biggest problem by free agency, and this draft, imo, perfectly adressed the 2nd biggest problem.

[foglemann]

Great thread Outlet, I like it. I don't think Howard will contribute besides back up or random starts. He is not the answer at the 3 for many obvious reasons and he is a rookie on a deep team. I also think Lampe was a better pick even if he wouldn't come over for another 3 years, he will be 21 by then and over 5 years of top level Euro ball under his belt. I don't think the 4 pts. and 3 reb. he will probably average over these years, being generous, will put us over the top. But Lampe probably whould when we really need a shot in the arm.

[Mandyahl]

howard will beat the odds and become a contributor. maybe not next year, but eventually. i just feel it.

[OutletPass]

Sports Illustrated just gave the Mavs a "D" with these comments

Dallas Mavericks
Picks: 29, 57
Came away with: Josh Howard (29), Xue Yuyang (57)
They didn’t even try to address their issues in the frontcourt. Nor did they get a top-notch prospect with upside for the future. Howard might be a decent player, but it’s hard to see where he’s going to get much time with ironman Michael Finley around. Why not take Maciej Lampe and wait on him?

[MavKikiNYC]

I think this is a very interesting thread, although a bit of a downer.

For context though, and for the sake of optimism, I think it should be viewed alongisde the thread of the All-Time Top 10 Second Round Picks from a few days ago.

Can someone dredge that up and post the link?

[Mandyahl]

here's the link, kiki.

link

[FilthyFinMavs]

Originally posted by: OutletPass
Originally posted by FFM:

I used the 29th pick because that's where we picked this year. I thought that was a logical starting point. The real logic is that between the #3 (that you suggest) and the 29th...there's a severe depletion of the talent pool....over 25 players are NOT going to be available at the 29 (who were available at the #3)

Here are some of the #3 picks....
Kevin McHale
Buck Williams
Dominique Wilkins
Michael Jordan
Sean Elliott
Penny Hardaway
Grant Hill
Jerry Stackhouse
Shareef Abdur Rahim
Chauncey Billups
Raef
Baron Davis
Darius Miles
Pau Gasol
Mike Dunleavy


That's one HELL of a lot of more "successes" and All Stars than at the 29.

You'll have your "busts" at any pick...granted...there are some Benoit Benjamins, Chris Washburns, Billy Owens and Dennis Hopsons that were picked at #3....you'll even have a Christian Laettner or a Rodney McCray.. but I count 12 who have already had an impact here ..with the jury still out on Raef, Dunleavy and Dmiles. That's 12 of 23...a MUCH better percentage. Over 50%. And in that group, you have some of the best players of the past 20 years...I don't think anyone can argue with Jordan, McHale, or 'Nique.

And I do agree, the inclusion of International players over the past 5 years have deepened the pool and made it better, but only marginally. And Tony has a point... some drafts are deeper than others. This has been called a pretty deep draft (though I'm not so sure) but I am hoping, as he hopes, that Howard slid through the cracks and that we've got a good one.

So, FFM, Which lineup would you take...the #3's or the #29's ?

Sorry, FFM, but I really don't understand your point, but I'm trying. Obviously, the talent pool at #3 is going to be better than the talent pool at #29....year after year.

I am, in no way, trying to demean Howard OR the Mavs choice of a player. I'm just presenting some history for a little perspective...and for some discussion by our members.

I give you props on your thread. You backed it up with alot of informatino but that is exactly my point. At the 3rd pick of the draft of course you are going to find more talent there then at the 29th. Which comes to my questino. Why is there so much attention at a guy who was drafted at 29th? IS it because people wanted the Mavs to move up? Mavs got the best guy available at the position. Looking at the history of the Baby Shaqs there was no reason to even draft another one of them. None of them have ever panned out. Badiane? There had to be something there that teams didn't like. 29 teams passed him up once and a couple of more passed him up twice.

[OutletPass]

FFM...I think that you just hit the nail on the head...in the poll before the draft, a lot of people predicted (wanted) us to make a dramatic move up. And it's just my supposition, but I think Lampe's fall exacerbated everyone's desires. We all want those "pieces" that will get us the championship. I think we're all united in that.

Did we get the best available at the 29th ? That's not for me or anyone else to say TODAY. Only time will tell, right. Maybe we got one of those great "steals"....but who knows. There are so many people saying that we got a great pick...but we won't KNOW if that's true for a while.

I return the props to you, FFM, for "hitting the nail on the head"....you made a very cogent point about expectations and I'm right there with you.

Let's all hope that we got a keeper...but, at the same time, let's not get our expectations too, too high. It's human nature to get a little over exuberant...hope springs eternal, they say.

But bottomline, if we don't learn from history...we're doomed to repeat it.

[Nash13]

Originally posted by: OutletPass

If you like Del Negro...so be it.

Let me rephrase that, he played well for NC State. Must have gotten his college game confused with his NBA game.

[Usually Lurkin]

actually, this list is pretty encouraging to me.

I've been looking at this draft as, "wow, 29th. That means we'll get some guy who is a worse player than 28 other (pre)rookies. The 29th best rookie out there." Out of 2 years, prettending everything averages, we're looking at a guy that in all liklihood is around the 50th - 60th best player. Out of 3 years, probably the 80th-90th best player. Giving 10 years of possible NBA playing time, we're looking at someone that's probably the 200th-300th best player in the league. Woo Hoo.

The fact that there is a Dickau, Parker, Madsen, and Mohammed at the recent end, and Brown and Kukoc in there, and even Travis Knight, Vinny Del Negro, and Johnny Newman in there means that every once in a while, some guy from the suck end of the draft can actually contribute.

But no, we can't expect the 29th draft pick to change a 60 win team.

[LordOfTheMavs]

Is he really a 29th pick?

Five years ago before 12 Euro's and several high schoolers were taken in the first round, this guys would have been a middle first round pick.

Compare him to histories 15th picks, not the 29th. That's where our expectations should be. We got what would have been a 15-20 pick or higher 5 years ago. What would you expect of a player picked 15th 10 years ago. Let me see that history, because that's what we got.

He looks like he will fill some needs we have and with his versatitly will be able to find playing time.

My expectations for him will be about like.... say .... Desmond Mason... drafted a few years back. 4 years in a major confernce with a great college coach. Started almost every game. By senior season was arguable the best player in thier rescpective leagues.

I'd say we did very good with the 29th pick. While everyone is trying to get the next Dirk, we got a solid player who will help next year.

[u2sarajevo]

Originally posted by: LordOfTheMavs
Is he really a 29th pick?

Five years ago before 12 Euro's and several high schoolers were taken in the first round, this guys would have been a middle first round pick.

Compare him to histories 15th picks, not the 29th. That's where our expectations should be. We got what would have been a 15-20 pick or higher 5 years ago. What would you expect of a player picked 15th 10 years ago. Let me see that history, because that's what we got.

He looks like he will fill some needs we have and with his versatitly will be able to find playing time.

My expectations for him will be about like.... say .... Desmond Mason... drafted a few years back. 4 years in a major confernce with a great college coach. Started almost every game. By senior season was arguable the best player in thier rescpective leagues.

I'd say we did very good with the 29th pick. While everyone is trying to get the next Dirk, we got a solid player who will help next year.

I think you make some great points. And welcome to the board. Setting our expectations right would be a good practice for all of us. Especially those that wanted Lampe instead.

[LordOfTheMavs]

Well, I used to be MavsPoke, and posted here once in a blue moon, but my account got screwed up or I'm a moron and can't remember my password. Take your pick. Thanks though.

If you go for a Euro or high schooler, then you better be prepared to wait for your brand new shiny player. Most languish in the Euro leagues or the end of the bench. I feel good with a 4 year starter from a major conf. He seems mature and solid. When you have a 60 win team, prospects are nice and needed, but let someone else develop them and then get them when they are FA's

[Big Boy Laroux]

i just have one thing to say. laettner is not a bust.

[kg_veteran]

Looking at your original list, I'd say that in addition to the guys you named, Eddie Johnson, Vinnie Del Negro, and Johnny Newman had pretty solid careers in the NBA. None of them were stars, but they all stuck around for a long time and made contributions to a number of different teams.

I think Howard was the right pick for the Mavericks. The Mavericks did the smart thing and took a guy that could contribute NOW. Say what you want about Howard, but he fills a need on this team. He's athletic, he's a very good defender, and he's a two-way player. We don't have nearly enough of those. He can play SF in the NBA. He was an All-American. It's not like he's just some chump from a big program. He was one of the best players in college basketball last year.

For those that wanted Lampe, I say wait and see. If Howard is anywhere close to the player he appears to be, it won't matter how good Lampe "could" be, because the Mavs will have drafted a good player at No. 29, which is apparently considered somewhat of an achievement. Also, if Lampe does turn out to be a stud (a remote possibility, IMO), then there will be about 24 other teams regretting not picking him as well.

[FilthyFinMavs]

Originally posted by: kg_veteran
Looking at your original list, I'd say that in addition to the guys you named, Eddie Johnson, Vinnie Del Negro, and Johnny Newman had pretty solid careers in the NBA. None of them were stars, but they all stuck around for a long time and made contributions to a number of different teams.

I think Howard was the right pick for the Mavericks. The Mavericks did the smart thing and took a guy that could contribute NOW. Say what you want about Howard, but he fills a need on this team. He's athletic, he's a very good defender, and he's a two-way player. We don't have nearly enough of those. He can play SF in the NBA. He was an All-American. It's not like he's just some chump from a big program. He was one of the best players in college basketball last year.

For those that wanted Lampe, I say wait and see. If Howard is anywhere close to the player he appears to be, it won't matter how good Lampe "could" be, because the Mavs will have drafted a good player at No. 29, which is apparently considered somewhat of an achievement. Also, if Lampe does turn out to be a stud (a remote possibility, IMO), then there will be about 24 other teams regretting not picking him as well.

I like how the Mavs went and drafted a guy who can play the 3 rather then get a Big Man because at he 29th pick more than likely he was gonna be a project. I give Mark and NEllie huge props for now being able to spend there whole exception on a Big Man rather then trying to find a way to split it between a 3 and a Big Man because we took a project in the draft.