Okur

[MikeB]

Poindexter

I see where you are coming from and Okur is most likely a pipe dream...however there are some strange things that happen. If Okur really really wanted to come here(absolutely no reason to believe he does) then Detroit would pretty much have their hand forced...much like the Brad Miller deal last summer...what did Indiana get in that deal that was half worth Miller? Pollard and the ability to jetison Ron Mercer...thats it. SA actually made out better in that deal than the Pacers and they were the team trading an all-star.

So while it is extremely unlikely it is not out of the realm of possibility...right?

[cheesestar]

your chalenge brings us back to the fact that okur is not the perfect piece and that we need someone else to play center here

[Poindexter Einstein]

MIKE B ...I know the rules in a detailed fashion. I have talked to people that I respect that know them as well or better. There isnt even a "strange things happen" scenario, from what I see. Not one.

Re Okurs wishes, I dont see any way for Dallas to give him realistically what he might want, in a way that Detroit lets him get away. (He is restricted not unrestricted - that has to be kept in mind. Detroit wants him, too).

Re Indy last year, they got something. It wasnt equal value, but there was some value. I dont see ANYTHING that would interest Detroit, once you lay out the groundwork of the options from Dallas.

[MikeB]

So you had Miller going to Sac and Pollard going to Indy and Turkoglu and Mercer going to SA?
You knew that was happening? Right?
I kinda doubt that...I respect your opinions and you are most likely correct...but nothing is certain except death and taxes.

[Poindexter Einstein]

How is that relevant? It isnt. I never said I knew the Indy deal in advance, nor any deal this year - I merely said there is no way UNDER THE CAP RULES for a deal to happen here.

[cheesestar]

so nothing is certain except death, taxes- and cap rules[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[Poindexter Einstein]

CHEESE ..yep, thats the idea!! lol

Actually, the cap rules have lots of weird angles. But it seems like on Okur, everytime you find one loophole, there is a different rule that would make that deal impossible. Or else you have to make weird assumptions that make no sense such as "Detroit signs him, trades him to Dallas, and nets nothing out of the deal."

I am open to being proven wrong, and am putting my checkbook on the line to back up my mouth in case someone wants to come up with a scenario. I know I can be wrong, so I am open to the possibility. But I have done the homework, and I dont see anything here that comes anywhere close to being desirable.

[chumdawg]

PE, please share the results of your homework! What are Detroit's options with Okur? What can they pay him to resign him...if they have to sign-and-trade, what can they take back, etc...

[Poindexter Einstein]

CHUM, this is hard for me to explain, but heres an article with an extensive analysis. The article is long, I am just pulling out the parts that are relevant.

From David Lord at DallasBasketball.com

Why Okur is virtually impossible in Dallas.

1. Detroit has contractual commitments for next year totaling approx 33.6M, for 7 players. The cap is expected to be about 44M. Leaving slots for Wallace and Okur, the Pistons will be given a cap hit for 2 more salaries at the minimum (to total 11 players), bringing their total commitments to 33.4M. That could leave them with working cap space of 9.6M, which is likely to be far less than needed to sign both Wallace and Okur, as it is readily assumed that each player will likely command as much as (and probably more than) the Mid Level Exception salary, expected to be around $5M.

Wallace will be an unrestricted free agent with Bird Rights. Okur will likely be restricted (assuming Detroit makes him a qualifying offer), but without Bird Rights. Thus Detroit can't go over the cap to sign Okur unless it uses some other cap exception.

2. As long as they retain Bird Rights on Wallace, the Pistons will be charged approx $25M against the cap. Once he signs, they are charged the contract amount (if he signs with Detroit). They have the ability to renounce their Bird Rights on Wallace, but they would be almost certain not to do so, since by so doing they would lose their ability to go over the cap to sign him.

Obviously as long as they are retaining Wallace's Bird Rights, they have no cap room whatsoever for Okur (and thus will be using an exception to try to sign him).

Detroit will be charged $1.375M on Okur's restricted free agent rights, until he is signed. Once he signs, they are charged the contract amount (if he signs with Detroit).

3. The expectation is that the Pistons will retain the Bird Rights on Wallace. They will be over the cap as a result, so they will also have a Mid Level Exception (to use to try to retain Okur). The obvious scenario is that the Pistons sign Wallace for whatever amount, and then hope that the MLE is enough to entice Okur to stay.

There is speculation that teams like Phoenix, Utah, and maybe Denver might have an interest in Okur and make him an offer over the MLE (for perhaps $6.5M-$7M?), which Detroit wouldn't be able to match.

6. If Okur somehow became sold on Dallas, could the Pistons then sign-and-trade him to Dallas in the above scenario? In simple terms, no. The rules prohibit a player signed via MLE (or LLE) from being dealt in a sign-and-trade transaction.

7. Could the Pistons sign him without using a cap exception such as the MLE? Not really. While Wallace has Bird Rights and is negotiating, they are far over the cap and have no cap room to make any non-exception offer to Okur. Once Wallace signs, they won't have a lot left, if they don't use the MLE. Wallace will undoubtedly sign for more than an MLE amount, leaving Detroit with non-exception money of perhaps $4M (and more likely less than $3M). That won't be enough to offer Okur, especially when other teams will be offering the MLE of $5M and perhaps much more.

The Loophole Scenarios that leave the door barely ajar:

SCENARIO 1

Could Detroit renounce the Bird Rights on Wallace, thereby freeing up cap room to sign Okur first, then sign-and-trade Okur to Dallas (or some other team of Okur's choice) for a draft pick or a very cheap player, then come back and sign Wallace to a deal? Maybe. But Dallas' cap situation could cause a roadblock, and there are a lot of huge "if's" that would have to be hurdled to make it all work.

Let's say they sign Okur for $6M and go to trade him to Dallas for a draft pick. Because Dallas is over the cap, the Mavs cant take back more salary than they send away. So the Mavs would have to send Detroit (or someone) approx $6M of salary in that deal, in order to take on Okur's $6M salary.

Detroit wouldn't want the salary, because they then would lack any room to re-sign Wallace. So the first order of business would be to find a taker for a pile of Dallas bodies that total $6M or more. Can you find a taker for a contract or two, in a budget-conscious luxury-tax-fearing world?

The next step would be to persuade Detroit to offer Okur in a sign-and-trade. Would Detroit let anyonyone get Okur (whom they want) via sign-and-trade, or would they limit the field of competitors by forcing outside suitors to have and use cap room?

Would Detroit let Dallas get a big man that may improve the Mavs' ability to get to a title?

If you get past those, there would have to be an offer to Detroit that interests them. Would a Dallas draft pick be enough? Detroit might see low 1st rounders like Dallas can offer as being items of questionable value. The only cheap talent on the roster to offer would be Josh Howard. Is that too much?

Since such a deal involves a free agent signing, such a deal would also require persuading Okur to choose the Mavs as his preferred destination. Money would be a deciding factor here it would seem. But there are no guarantees.

So IF the Pistons were willing to renounce their Bird Rights on Wallace, and IF the Mavs could find a team other than Detroit to accept $6M+ in contracts, and IF Detroit is willing to do a sign-and-trade and let Okur get away, and IF Okur wanted to come to Dallas, and IF the compensation to Detroit is enough to interest them, then perhaps the Mavs could get Okur - unless I have overlooked additional restrictions for this scenario in the fine print of the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement, which is always quite possible.

Even if I have discovered and gotten past all the hindrances, just getting all those IF's to fall the right direction would seem to me to be way too much to overcome. As many IF's as exist in that outline, it is hard to envision the Mavs attempting to bother with Okur. It would seem that (particularly in light of their failed efforts last summer to acquire a big man) they would work this year to go for more of a sure thing.

SCENARIO 2

Detroit persuades Charlotte to take Williamson or Campbell off their hands in the expansion draft. The selection of either player would increase Detroit's cap room significantly, creating upwards of $14M. That should be enough to re-sign both players, it seems.

With that much room, the Pistons would not have to use an exception to sign Okur, and thus could sign-and-trade him if they wanted to. But if they freed up this added space, wouldn't they just opt to keep him, as they clearly have wanted? With that much cap room and with a restricted tag on him, the Pistons should clearly be able to fend off all reasonable offers.

The bigger question here would be whether the Pistons could persuade Charlotte to take either Williamson or Campbell off their hands. Williamson is due $18M over the next 3 years, which seems like much more than he is worth. Campbell only has a single year left at $4.4M, but it seems he has dubious on-court value anymore.

How could and would Detroit sweeten the pot? Could they make an offer that Charlotte can't refuse? It would seem that neither player would hold much appeal to the Bobcats, but who knows what Detroit might toss into the deal?