June 28 Insider - Free Agent Marketplace

[chumdawg]

Free-agent market suddenly has big players
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider


Cap space. It's priceless.

That's the mantra many GMs have repeated over the past few weeks as they've dumped draft picks and offered incentives to the Charlotte Bobcats to take a high-priced player or two off their hands.

In February, it appeared just three teams -- the Jazz, Nuggets and Bobcats -- would have enough money to sign a free agent to a max contract. However, that number has risen over the past month to whopping eight teams.

Assuming the cap rises to $45 million, a total of 10 teams will have enough cap room to make some noise. To get next year's projected cap figures, Insider took into account a team's committed salaries for '04, free-agent cap holds for players the team is likely to keep, minimum roster holds for teams that have fewer than 11 players under contract, and first-round pick cap holds.

Of course, the numbers can be deceiving. If teams like the Spurs and Pistons re-sign their own free agents, which appears likely, their cap room will disappear pretty fast. The Spurs want Emanuel Ginobili back, and he's asking for a big paycheck. The Pistons, in an effort to keep Rasheed Wallace from the Knicks, also will have to fork over the dough.

2004 Cap Space
Team Proj. Cap Space
Jazz $29.8 million
Nuggets $23.9 million
Hawks $19.5 million
Bobcats $17.3 million
Suns $16.3 million
Spurs $14.6 million
Clippers $14.5 million
Pistons $9.5 million
Warriors $7.9 million

The Nuggets appear to have a deal worked out to re-sign Marcus Camby that could take as much as $9 million of their current flexibility. The Clippers, if they don't land Kobe Bryant, likely will use a large chunk to re-sign Quentin Richardson.

Still, this is the first time in several years that multiple teams have the ability to pay out a max contract. Clearly teams have targeted this summer's free-agent crop. But, the approach begs the question: Are there any free agents worth writing home about? And, even more important, will any team have enough cash and a good enough sales pitch to land the ultimate prize -- Kobe Bryant?

Bryant already has opted out of his contract, and there are reasons to believe he won't stay in L.A. this summer. Phil Jackson is gone (although that actually might encourage Kobe to stay). Shaquille O'Neal is demanding a trade (again, not necessarily a deterrent to Kobe staying). However, the chances of Shaq actually being traded still remain low. Lost in the Lakers' soap opera is the fact Kobe may not necessarily want to hang around, even if his two biggest nemeses are kicked to the curb.

While sources close to Kobe claim re-signing with the Lakers is still his first choice if all things are equal, who knows that they will be? The Spurs, Suns and even the Clippers could offer Kobe a better chance of winning a title next year than the Lakers, given L.A.'s current implosion. Kobe's eligible for a deal starting at $14.175 million next year, so that's the starting point.

San Antonio doesn't have L.A.'s market size, but it does have Tim Duncan and Tony Parker -- two younger and more congenial stars.

Phoenix is a place nearly every player likes to play, and with Amare Stoudemire on board, Kobe would have his young big man to mentor.

The Clippers? Same market, but a younger core -- Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Chris Kaman and first-round pick Shaun Livingston.

After Kobe, however, the market drops off pretty steeply. Kenyon Martin is probably the second-most likely top free agent to jump ship. New Nets owner Bruce Ratner is in cost-cutting mode and doesn't want to pay Martin's asking price unless the team ships off another high-priced piece to clear the room.

Other players like Steve Nash, Mehmet Okur, Erick Dampier, Mark Blount, Stromile Swift and Jamal Crawford can be had for the right price. But are any of these guys worth breaking the bank over?

Here's Insider's sneak peek at the free-agent class of 2004. Teams can begin their wooing on Thursday, July 1. Free agents cannot be signed until July 15, and a team will have 15 days to match an offer sheet to one of its restricted free agents.

Top 15 free agents
(R) = Restricted free agent

1. Kobe Bryant, G, Lakers
The skinny: Kobe's dilemma is this -- will any team offer him the farm without knowing the resolution of his rape trial, which doesn't start until late August? The Spurs, Suns and Clippers appear to have the most interest, with the Clippers and Suns both looking the most motivated. All three could offer max contracts, or close to it, but they still can't beat, financially, what the Lakers have to offer. Sign-and-trades are always possible, but the Lakers are in the driver's seat. Put the chances that Kobe re-ups with the Lakers this summer at about 75 percent.

2. Kenyon Martin, F, Nets (R)


Martin
The skinny: Martin is looking for a six-year, $90 million deal from the Nets. The Nets, understandably, are balking. They tried to trade Martin to the Nuggets earlier in the week in return for Nene. The Nuggets didn't bite then but still might have interest. Kiki Vandeweghe is close with Martin, and the Nuggets still are looking to upgrade their low-post scoring. Denver has enough cash to offer Martin and Quentin Richardson (another Nuggets favorite) big deals. The Hawks also will consider throwing a max contract Martin's way. The team didn't draft one big guy with any of its five picks last Thursday and needs size in the worst way.

3. Rasheed Wallace, F, Pistons
The skinny: After the Pistons won the NBA title, everyone just assumed Wallace would re-up there. The Pistons can offer him more money than anyone else, and he seems like a perfect fit in Detroit. However, he has taken the stance that the money doesn't matter and wants to find a place where his family is most comfortable. The Pistons are still the heavy favorites to re-sign him, but two teams -- the Sixers and Knicks -- could be in the mix. Wallace grew up in Philly and has always wanted to play there. He has made his desire to play in New York clear for the past year. However, if he plays for either team, the Pistons would have to agree to a sign-and-trade or 'Sheed would have to agree to take a pay cut and play for the mid-level exception (starting salary of about $5 million).

4. Steve Nash, G, Mavs


Nash
The skinny: It's been considered a forgone conclusion for months that Nash would return to Big D, but the events over the past few weeks have put that in serious doubt. The Mavs are in the hunt for Shaquille O'Neal and reportedly are offering Nash as bait in a sign-and-trade. The team also raised eyebrows Thursday when it used the No. 5 pick on point guard Devin Harris. The Mavs claim they brought in Harris to be Nash's backup. However, Harris was considered the most NBA-ready point guard in the draft. If Nash signs the lucrative long-term deal he wants, will they really just stash Harris away? More likely, the team is sending a signal to Nash -- either agree to a sign-and-trade with the Lakers or go find your dough somewhere else. Nash should have no problem finding suitors. The Suns, Jazz and Clippers all are in the market for a veteran point guard.

5. Mehmet Okur, C, Pistons (R)
The skinny: There's a dearth of big men available, and a number of teams are going to show major interest in Okur now that it looks pretty clear the Pistons won't re-sign him. Four months ago, the team appeared prepared to re-sign him at any cost. But coach Larry Brown wasn't a fan, and Okur stewed on the bench the last two months of the season after Brown all but replaced him in the rotation with Rasheed Wallace. Okur wants out, and unless 'Sheed decides he doesn't want to stay in Detroit, there's probably little Joe Dumars (who really does want Okur back) can do about it. Unless the Pistons clear more cap room, the most they can offer him is the mid-level exception. The Suns, Jazz and Nuggets are all expected to make offers starting in the $6 million to $7 million a year range. Right now it appears the Suns are the heavy favorites to land him.

6. Erick Dampier, C, Warriors


Dampier
The skinny: Dampier had a career season and decided to opt out of his contract, foregoing a starting salary of $8.1 million next season. Can he recoup that on the open market? Maybe. Several teams with cap room are in desperate need of a big man and may be willing to offer Dampier big bucks, despite a pretty spotty history of injuries and malaise. More likely, Dampier will recoup the cash in the long term. The Lakers are interested if they lose Shaq. The Grizzlies, Heat, Mavs and Pacers are interested, as well, if they don't land Shaq. All five teams can offer a six-year deal at the mid-level that, in total, would exceed what Dampier gave up by opting out. Or, they could work out a sign-and-trade with the Warriors that would earn Dampier even more cash.

7. Emanuel Ginobili, G, Spurs (R)
The skinny: The Spurs want to keep him. But if they get wrapped up in the Kobe sweepstakes or get involved in a trade, Ginobili could be in play. His asking price also could cause a few gags in San Antonio. According to sources, he wants a deal with a starting salary between $8 million and $9 million a year. That's a lot of bones for a guy who spent the second half of the season coming off the bench. The Nuggets love him and won't let him slip if he, for some reason, wiggles out of the Spurs' grasp.

8. Stromile Swift, PF, Grizzlies (R)


Swift
The skinny: Expect Swift to be a hot commodity this summer. The Grizzlies want to keep him, but at what price? He really started coming on last season, and with so few athletic shot blockers available, he's sure to command a big raise. The Hawks, Bobcats, Nuggets, Warriors and Jazz could end up being players. The Grizzlies are claiming they'll match any offer for Swift, but if the salary starts creeping up into the $7 million range, will they still be willing?

9. Mark Blount, C, Celtics
The skinny: While Danny Ainge insists the Celtics have a chance to re-sign Blount this summer, don't count on it. He's been unhappy in Boston since the team let Jim O'Brien walk away and traded two of his closest teammates. Blount likely will land in either Philly, Miami, Dallas or Orlando. All four teams will pursue him hard with their mid-level exceptions. Philly offers him the chance to be reunited with O'Brien. He has a home in Miami, and Orlando believes he could be the guy who helps propel the Magic back into the playoffs. But don't count out teams like the Hawks, Suns and Jazz, who have designs on winning now and can outbid teams that are over the cap.

10. Jamal Crawford, G, Bulls (R)


Crawford
The skinny: Crawford claims he wants to re-sign with Chicago, but the truth is the Bulls appear to be going in a different direction. The fact Chicago drafted Ben Gordon appears to hurt Crawford's chances of getting a big contract there. Teams that believe Crawford can be a good NBA point guard are going to be the most interested. Look for the Clippers, Bobcats, Nuggets, Hawks and Warriors to make the most noise. The Knicks and Sonics also could be in the picture if they can work out a sign-and-trade with Chicago. The Bulls have had their eye on Kurt Thomas for a while. The Sonics could offer a combo of Vladimir Radmanovic and Ronald Murray that may make some sense for the Bulls.

11. Quentin Richardson, G, Clippers (R)
The skinny: The word on the street is the Nuggets love him. The speculation is met with a chuckle when posed directly to Nuggets brass. He does fit the system and seems like an upgrade ... but what's the price? The Clippers own his Bird rights. If they can't get Kobe, they'll want to keep Richardson, and Denver GM Kiki Vandeweghe won't overpay.

12. Darius Miles, F, Blazers (R)


Miles
The skinny: Miles was a breakout performer for the Blazers over the last two months of the season. He ended the season averaging 14.5 ppg and 5.1 rpg and was a big part of the team's late playoff push. Portland will absolutely try to re-sign him, but other teams likely will get involved, as well.

13. Vlade Divac, C, Kings
The skinny: Divac's goal is to remain with the Kings for one final contract. But if the Maloof brothers decide to save the money (that's why they paid Brad Miller the big bucks last year) Divac will have a number of suitors. Don't rule Phoenix out as a possible destination here. He loves it there and could be a great mentor to Maciej Lampe.

14. Adonal Foyle, C, Warriors


Foyle
The skinny: Foyle as one of the hottest free agents on the market? Isn't this the guy who played just 44 games for the Warriors last season? Well, he's big, he blocks shots and most teams beleive he can be had for cheap -- about half the mid-level exception. I'm not exaggerating when I tell you I've had 20 NBA teams tell me they had Foyle ranked near the top of their free-agent list this year. That's how ugly the center situation is around the league.

15. Andres Nocioni, G/F, Tau Ceramica
The skinny: Nocioni, a native of Argentina, is widely considered the best NBA player not currently in the NBA. The 25-year-old, 6-foot-6 swingman is a strong, athletic, aggressive player who has shined on the Argentine national team and in Europe. He's averaging 13.7 ppg and 5.7 rpg in 25 minutes per game for Tau. Nocioni is a solid perimeter shooter with NBA 3-point range, but he shines posting guys up and playing the mid-range game. Teams have wanted him for some time, but a big buyout with Tau has prohibited him from making the leap. To get him this year, a team will have to give up a large chunk of its mid-level exception. He's worth it. Look for the Sixers, Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets, Celtics and Magic to show the most interest.

Best of the Rest

Unrestricted: Stephen Jackson, G/F, Hawks; Marcus Camby, C, Nuggets; Karl Malone, F, Lakers; Brent Barry, G, Sonics; Antonio McDyess, F, Suns; Rafer Alston, G, Heat; Bruce Bowen, G/F, Spurs; Eric Williams, G/F, Cavs; Keon Clark, F, Suns; Greg Ostertag, C, Jazz; Jon Barry, G, Nuggets; Rodney White, G/F, Nuggets; Troy Hudson, G, T-Wolves; Derek Fisher, PG, Lakers; Brian Cardinal, F, Warriors; Slava Medvedenko, C, Lakers; Toni Kukoc, F, Bucks; Bob Sura, G, Hawks; Brian Skinner, F, Bucks; Marcus Fizer, F, Bobcats; Trenton Hassell, G, T-Wolves; Ron Mercer, G, Spurs; Zaur Pachulia, C, Bucks.

Restricted: Marquis Daniels, G, Mavericks; Etan Thomas, F/C, Wizards; Hedo Turkoglu, G/F, Spurs; Carlos Arroyo, PG, Jazz; Mo Peterson, F, Raptors; DeShawn Stevenson, G, Jazz; Gordan Giricek, G/F, Magic; Zeljko Rebraca, C, Pistons; Jake Tsakalidis, C, Grizzlies; Chris Mihm, PF, Celtics; Joel Przybilla, C, Bucks; Keyon Dooling, G, Clippers; Courtney Alexander, G, Hornets.

International free agents: Arvydas Macijauskas, G, Tau Ceramica; Fabrico Oberto, C, Parmesa Valencia; Sarunas Jasikevicius, PG, Maccabi Tel Aviv; Ognjen Askrabic, F, FMP Zeleznik; Demos Dikoudis, PF, AEK (Greece); Walter Hermann, PF, Argentina; Nikola Vujcic, PF/C, Croatia.

[Dooby]

Maccabi Tel Aviv; Ognjen Askrabic, F

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-shocked.gif[/img]

Also, notice Daniels isn't listed at the top of the free agents list.

[ddh33]

It's kind of hard to take this seriuosly. I know there is a lot of news in the NBA. It makes it hard to keep up to date with all that is happening. But Dallas won't have their MLE after they resign Daniles, so all of this talk about signing free agents with it is irrelevant. Obviously, if Daniels jumps ship then Dallas has options, but that doesn't seem likely.

In other news, all of this Steve Nash drama continues. Why do people assume that Nellie is ready to hand over this team to a rookie PG? I think Harris is going to be a star. I have been consistent on that, but that doesn't change Steve's role here at present time.

[Dooby]

OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY OGGY!!!!!

[chumdawg]

Who Oggy?

[uberfan]

Originally posted by: Dooby

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-shocked.gif[/img]

Also, notice Daniels isn't listed at the top of the free agents list.

No, but there aren't that many guards in his price range ahead of him on that list.

[uberfan]

[i]In other news, all of this Steve Nash drama continues. Why do people assume that Nellie is ready to hand over this team to a rookie PG? I think Harris is going to be a star. I have been consistent on that, but that doesn't change Steve's role here at present time.

Steve Nash still has a role at the right price and if a Shaq deal is not made.

Just out of curiosity, how much do you think Mavs should pay Nash, and for how many years?

[jayC]

Have any of chad's rumors ever come true.